广发宏观周度述评（第12期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-11期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 对中期影响深远的三个政策线索。 4月25日政治局会议明确指出"外部冲击影响加大"及"要强化底线思维"，并部署了一系列稳增长具体举措。从"加紧实 施"这一表述来看，目前稳增长具有一定的紧迫性，后续政策节奏有望加快。 值得注意的是，除了短期视角，本轮政策稳增长举措中也展现出一些新的中期线索。如去年底中央经济工作会议指出的，"实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规 律性认识"；以及3月5日国新办吹风会解读政府工作报告时指出的，"充分体现了9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创新"。 线索一：服务类消费可能成为新的风口。3月5日国新办发布会指出本轮稳增长"打破了消费是慢变量的常规"；而从本次政治局会议精神来看，政策侧重点可能已从 商品消费进一步扩展向服务类消费。在耐用消费品的政策红利释放之后，服务类消费空间更大。[1]2024年全国居民人均服务性消费支出占居民人均消费支出比重 达46.1%，而且部分商品消费是服务消费的场景带动的。要发展服务类消费，那么重要的不仅是有形商品创新，还包括应用场景和商业模式创新。[2]如《求 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth and Stability - China's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with over 3 million new jobs added, indicating resilient growth amidst global challenges [2] - The meeting emphasized the need to solidify the foundation for sustained economic recovery, acknowledging increased external shocks [2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The meeting called for a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with an expected issuance of over 8 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special bonds this year [3] - Measures such as timely reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates are on the agenda to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs for enterprises [3] Group 3: Structural Innovation and Support - New policy financial tools will be created to support key sectors like technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with an anticipated investment of 500 billion yuan in initiatives like the "Technology Innovation Re-loan" and "Consumption Revitalization Fund" [4] - These initiatives aim to foster "new quality productivity" and provide funding for the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan [4] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Income Growth - Increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups is central to boosting consumption, with disposable income growth expected to reach 6.5% this year through tax reductions and expanded subsidies [5] - The removal of restrictive consumption measures, such as easing restrictions on new energy vehicles, aims to raise the service consumption share to 45% [5] Group 5: Industrial Development and Technological Advancement - The integration of domestic and foreign trade and the focus on key core technology breakthroughs are highlighted, with plans to facilitate the listing of 100 hard-tech companies this year [6] - Investment in "new infrastructure" and "new urbanization" is set to accelerate, with over 20% growth in investments in 5G base stations and data centers [6] Group 6: Market Integration and Efficiency - The meeting proposed accelerating the construction of a unified national market to address local protectionism and market segmentation, aiming to reduce institutional transaction costs by over 100 billion yuan this year [7] Group 7: High-Level Opening and Global Engagement - China is expanding service industry opening trials and enhancing cooperation under the "Belt and Road" initiative, with high-tech service sector foreign investment increasing by 18% in Q1 [8] - Cross-border e-commerce transactions exceeded 3 trillion yuan, showcasing the global appeal of China's dual circulation strategy [8] Group 8: Employment and Social Security - The unemployment insurance retention rate for affected enterprises will be raised to 70%, benefiting over 5 million workers, while the average low-income guarantee standard is expected to increase by 8% this year [9] Group 9: Real Estate and Capital Market Stability - The "Urban Renewal Action" and "Stock Housing Acquisition Policy" aim to renovate over 200 urban villages and absorb 1.5 billion square meters of stock housing this year [10] - Efforts to attract long-term capital into the market and improve delisting mechanisms are expected to result in over 400 new companies listed on the A-share market this year [10]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The April Politburo meeting emphasized "high-quality development" to address uncertainties from external environments, focusing on achieving "four stabilizations": stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The meeting acknowledged a positive trend in the economy for Q1 2025 but highlighted the need to solidify this recovery amidst increasing external pressures[4] - Long-term strategies include deepening reform and opening up to solve developmental issues and maintaining a competitive position in international trade[3] Group 2: Employment and Enterprise Support - Employment is prioritized, with measures to increase the unemployment insurance fund's return ratio for companies affected by tariffs, aiming to stabilize jobs[8] - The expected number of college graduates in 2025 is 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year, indicating rising employment pressure[8] - The government plans to accelerate major projects to absorb employment, particularly in coastal areas, through initiatives like "work for relief"[9] Group 3: Consumption and Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for the development of service consumption to enhance economic growth, with service consumption accounting for 46.1% of total consumption in 2024, lower than in developed countries[12] - Policies to boost consumption include expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has shown positive effects on retail sales growth, with Q1 2025 showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year[13] - Fiscal policies will focus on increasing the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds to support infrastructure and stabilize the economy, with 960.2 billion yuan in new local special bonds issued in the first quarter of 2025[20][23]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The meeting occurred amid unclear U.S. tariff policies, reflecting a characteristic of "progress and retention" in policy direction[3] - The meeting identified "increased external shocks" as the main issue affecting China's economy[4] - The overall requirement to address external shocks is to "strengthen bottom-line thinking, prepare sufficient plans, and solidly carry out economic work"[4] Group 2: Economic Measures - The policy tone remains largely unchanged, but new requirements have been introduced, emphasizing "four stabilizations" instead of "six stabilizations" from previous meetings[5] - New structural monetary policy tools are expected to be introduced to support the real economy, with a projected reserve requirement gap of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for 2025[6][7] - The meeting emphasized the importance of boosting consumption, particularly for middle- and low-income groups, to enhance economic growth[8] Group 3: Support for Affected Sectors - Multiple measures will be taken to support enterprises affected by tariff shocks, including increased financing support and integration of domestic and foreign trade[9] - The meeting highlighted the need to protect livelihoods, particularly for those in industries heavily impacted by tariffs, by enhancing unemployment insurance and social assistance systems[9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The risk of a significant downturn in the stock market is low, with expectations of a structural market trend, particularly favoring the consumer sector[10][11] - The meeting indicated that existing incremental policies are in reserve and will be timely released based on changing circumstances, particularly as tariff situations clarify[15]

全球贸易战不断升级 英国企业活动跌至两年多来最疲弱水平 金十数据4月23日讯，周三公布的调查显示，在全球贸易战不断升级的压力下，英国企业陷入困境，这 场贸易战可能使英国经济陷入新的衰退。英国4月服务业PMI从3月份的51.5下滑至4月份的48.2，是自 2022年11月以来的最低水平。出口订单以2020年新冠疫情爆发初期以来的最快速度下降，而随着就业税 的提高和最低工资的提高，企业成本以两年多来最快的速度增长。标普全球首席商业经济学家威廉姆森 说，数据显示英国经济目前正以0.3%左右的季度速度收缩，" 4月信心崩溃和产出下降，对近期经济前 景发出了危险信号，并增加了英国央行在5月会议上再次降息的压力。" ...

文 /高歌、李悦 今年一季度财政发展前置，趋势呈现温和回升态势，直接改善了非政府部门现金流，但CPI、PPI、 GDP平减指数仍处低位，低通胀情况并未改变，国内需求不足局面仍未完全摆脱。 一季度，国内资本市场的表现在类平准基金稳定下得以回稳，但真正的考验在于外部环境的变化对实 体部门的影响。外部冲击下，二季度挑战与隐忧仍存。 4月21日，在CF40 宏观政策季度报告发布会上，多位专家聚焦当前宏观经济形势与扩大消费的政策 选择。面对美"对等关税"冲击以及二季度财政发债退坡压力，短中长期如何有效扩大内需，扩大消 费的政策选择与排序等议题分享最新观点。 根据中国金融四十人研究院的估算，考虑到出口下降及其乘数效应，美国关税政策对中国经济的总体 影响约为2万亿元，占GDP比重约1.5个百分点。 "这种冲击在短期内会比测算结果更大，因为长期来看企业会想各种办法绕过这个问题。总的来说， 关税冲击是二季度经济面临的最大挑战。"4月21日，在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上，CF40资 深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示。 他进一步提示， 关税的冲击本质上是对需求的冲击 ， 我们要加大扩大内需力度，增加国内 ...

人工智能正深刻改变全球产业结构和就业市场。对中国来说，人工智能不仅能够提升经济效率和质量， 还可能加剧中低技能群体的就业压力，特别是高度重复性岗位。 应对AI冲击的做法与启示 中国面临的挑战主要体现在三方面：一是庞大的中低技能劳动力群体，很多岗位容易受到自动化和智能 化的冲击，造成结构性失业；二是区域发展不平衡，东部沿海地区的产业升级速度较快，中西部地区则 面临较大的技术转型与就业压力；三是现有的技能培训体系和社会保障制度无法有效覆盖新兴就业形 态，灵活用工和平台经济的从业者缺乏足够的社保保障，导致其职业稳定性差，面临失业后的再就业困 境。 美国在应对人工智能对就业的冲击时，依托相对灵活的市场机制和政策环境，采取了多维度的措施，集 中体现在以下四方面。 首先是强化教育与技能培训。 1、多层次、长周期的教育与再培训。美国联邦与州政府通过社区大学、高校、企业等多方合作，构建 覆盖不同学龄与职业阶段的技能培训体系。政府往往以财政补贴或税收减免等方式，鼓励劳动者持续学 习、转岗或提升技术水平。联邦政府自2021年以来已投入2.65亿美元用于加强社区学院培训项目，一些 州已经开始在职业技术教育中实施AI培训项目,为不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic outlook in China, highlighting the effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the stock market and the overall economy amidst external pressures [4][7]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][9]. - The retail sales growth rate increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year-on-year in the same period, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][9]. Market Stabilization - The Chinese government has implemented measures to stabilize the stock market, foreign exchange market, and real estate market, with the central bank providing re-loans to support the "national team" in stabilizing the stock market [4][6][7]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated but recovered to around 7.3 against the USD, demonstrating resilience in the currency market [7]. Consumer Stimulus - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales in various sectors, particularly in electronics, with the inclusion of mobile phones and computers in the program [9][10]. - Future consumption stimulus should focus on service sectors such as tourism, hotels, and dining, as these areas show potential for growth [6][10]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is under pressure, with both exports and real estate facing simultaneous declines for the first time [7][8]. - While some regions show signs of recovery, a nationwide stabilization in the real estate market has not yet occurred, necessitating continued support for developers [8].

Group 1 - Understanding macro trends is crucial for grasping asset volatility and allocation opportunities, especially amid increasing global economic uncertainty [1] - The dialogue between Fang Sanwen and Xing Ziqiang highlights the importance of recognizing policy certainty, industry growth potential, and market structural opportunities for investment [1][2] - The concept of "East Stability, West Fluctuation" is introduced, emphasizing China's relative economic and policy stability compared to the uncertainties faced by the US [1][6] Group 2 - The divergence in asset prices between China and global markets since 2021 is attributed to geopolitical factors, underestimation of China's technological capabilities, and concerns over low-price cycles [4][5] - China's manufacturing sector retains a strong global competitive edge due to its integrated supply chain, engineering talent, and the ability to produce across all stages of manufacturing [12][13] - The ongoing adjustments in the real estate market are expected to stabilize, with government interventions aimed at debt restructuring and inventory management [9][10][11] Group 3 - The three-part strategy to break the low-price cycle includes debt restructuring, stimulating consumption, and reinforcing social security reforms [16][18] - China's consumer spending is currently low relative to GDP, with a high savings rate indicating potential for future consumption growth as social security systems improve [19][20] - The service sector is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by changing consumer preferences and the need for job creation [21][22] Group 4 - The outlook for different asset classes suggests a focus on technology and innovation-driven sectors, while also considering defensive stocks with high dividends amid macroeconomic uncertainties [28][30] - Advanced manufacturing sectors, including smart vehicles and AI, are expected to consolidate, leading to the emergence of industry leaders over time [31]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 特朗普关税后的股汇表现有无规律？ 特朗普公布超预期关税之后，以股市和汇率为典型代表的风险资产明显回调。 选择美国前50个贸易伙伴 （不含墨、加）加上墨西哥和加拿大，观察其汇率和股指表现与几组经济指标的关系 。 1、去掉缺失值和部分盯住美元的汇率，汇率的有效样本为38个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有13个，下跌的有 25个。发达经济体的汇率（-0.8%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-0.3%）。 2、去掉缺失值，股指的有效样本为34个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有3个，下跌的有31个。发达经济体股指 （-5.2%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-3.9%）。 3、美国贸易伙伴的股汇表现，与其在美国进口中的份额占比、经济体量、人均GDP水平、出口依赖度之 间，没有明显的相关性 。 4、各经济体的汇率表现，似乎与美国对其加征的对等关税税率呈现一定的正相关性，对等关税税率越高， 汇率的表现反而相对较好。 股指表现与对等关税税率没有明显相关性。进一步观察，各经济体汇率表现， 与对等关税 ...