Core Viewpoint - New Special Energy (01799) saw its stock price increase by over 5%, currently trading at 7.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 8.79 million HKD, following the establishment of a long-anticipated polysilicon capacity consolidation acquisition platform named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The newly formed company, Guanghe Qiancheng, has a registered capital of 3 billion CNY [1] - Major shareholders include Tongwei, GCL, Dongfang Hope, Daqo New Energy, and New Special Energy [1] - Future plans for Guanghe Qiancheng involve capital increase, which will lead to changes in the shareholding proportions among existing shareholders [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The industry is planning to retain polysilicon production capacity not exceeding 1.5 million tons [1] - The shareholding structure of Guanghe Qiancheng will allow for internal free transfer of equity among shareholders [1]

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hol [201] 1295号 2025年 | | | | 纪元菲 | 20013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ate | ರಿನಲ್ಲಿ | -35 | -3.68% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | રેક | 600 | -35 | -5.83% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1265 | 1300 | -35 | -2.69% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 25 ...

近日，由多家硅料龙头企业及中国光伏行业协会联合投资设立的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司（简 称"光和谦成"）正式登记成立。该公司被视为多晶硅产能并购整合平台，其成立是光伏行业"反内卷"的 重要一步。 12月12日，上海证券报记者从光和谦成股东层面获悉，未来，该平台规划保留的硅料产能不会超过150 万吨。另外，光和谦成公司目前注册资本为30亿元，持股比例靠前的股东包括通威股份、协鑫科技、东 方希望、大全能源、新特能源等。有接近股东的知情人士介绍，光和谦成公司未来会进行增资，届时各 股东持股份额仍会有变动，而且，光和谦成公司股权份额可以在股东内部自由流动。 "光和谦成不存在实际控制方，这个公司本来就是处理资产的，不做经营用途。"该人士表示。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citigroup indicates that the Chinese polysilicon industry is driving consolidation, with Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. being established as a platform for capacity integration and acquisition [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been formally registered and is viewed as a platform for polysilicon capacity integration [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited holds approximately 16.79% of the joint venture, making it the second-largest shareholder [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Citigroup believes that successful capacity integration could lead to an increase in polysilicon prices, benefiting GCL-Poly through margin expansion [1] - Even at a 50% capacity utilization rate, GCL-Poly is expected to record profit growth [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy/High Risk" rating to GCL-Poly, with a target price of HKD 1.72 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

2025年12月12日 商 品 研 究 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库持续叠加大厂复产未定，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆地区天气情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡格局 | 6 | 2025 年 12 月 12 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 期货研究 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 115,870 | -1,220 | -1,890 ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 12 月 10 日， ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 究 国 泰 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢 低做多 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,250 | -90 | -670 | -1,040 | | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 252,510 | -71,000 | 106,511 | -113,239 | | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 171,757 | -13,514 | -22,169 | -109,746 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 55,915 | 305 | -1,515 | - | | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 116,207 | -42,531 | -66,218 | - | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].