Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14819 元/吨，较上一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. - The US cotton is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also predicted to show a volatile trend. For trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 25, 30, and 35 respectively. The trading volume of CF01, CF05, and CF09 decreased by 109,232, 48,335, and 1,748 hands respectively. The open interest of CF01 decreased by 1,984, while that of CF05 increased by 3,646 and CF09 increased by 352. The CY01 contract remained unchanged, and CY05 and CY09 had no trading volume [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The Cot A price was 75.40 cents/pound. The prices of some other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 (up 5), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 175 (up 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 180 (down 10). In cotton - yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 19,790 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 0 (unchanged), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 19,790 (unchanged). The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,300 (up 25). The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton spread was 1,627 (up 37) [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On November 13, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.23 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg (down 0.05 yuan/kg). As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%, with the northern region at 100%, the southern region at 97.5%, and the eastern region at 98.8% [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: With new cotton hitting the market in large quantities in November, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is in a relatively off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need to be closely monitored [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton - Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bearish trend last night, with high hedging pressure. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. The downstream orders were decreasing, and most manufacturers lacked confidence in the future. The current operation rate remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with limited orders and difficulty in price increase [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: On November 13, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 168.00 (up 2.4%), the implied volatility (IV) was 7.7%. For the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 21.00 (down 16.0%), the IV was 10.5%. For the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 6.00 (down 33.3%), the IV was 15.4% [11]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [15][18][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was released on November 13, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market shows different price ranges and basis levels for different cotton qualities. The overall trading in the pure cotton yarn market is marginally weakening, with new orders insufficient and differentiation among varieties. The profit of weaving factories is around the break - even line. Some local all - cotton grey cloth prices have increased, and the overall price is stable. The shipment of all - cotton weaving factories has increased locally, and the inventory has decreased. Internationally, the US government shutdown crisis shows signs of improvement, and the NASS monthly supply - demand report is scheduled for November 14. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is gradually ending, the purchase price has declined from the peak, and the market is concerned about changes in production expectations. The import of US cotton may pick up. As of the end of October, the commercial cotton inventory level is slightly higher than that of last year. The downstream terminal demand remains tepid but has some resilience, and there has been a marginal improvement in local downstream demand recently. The textile and clothing export in October declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the weekly data shows that the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly and the finished product inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is increasing during the peak season of new cotton listing and processing [7][8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For futures contracts, CF2601 closed at 13,570 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 255,193 lots and an open interest of 564,881 lots, a decrease of 9,024 lots. CF2605 closed at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 8,345 lots and an open interest of 264,282 lots, an increase of 2,505 lots. CF2609 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 280 lots and an open interest of 6,169 lots, an increase of 54 lots. In the spot market, the 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (gross weight), and the basis is in different ranges. The basis of grade 41 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly above CF01 + 900 [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: The international market is waiting for the US NASS monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is approaching the end, the purchase price has dropped, and the market is concerned about production expectations. The import of US cotton may increase. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly while the inventory has decreased [8] 2. Industry News - From November 3 - 9, the large - scale machine - picking of cotton in Xinjiang was basically completed. Picking in northern Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase volume is scarce. Picking in southern Xinjiang is in the final stage. As the picking nears the end, the quality of seed cotton has declined from the peak, and the purchase price has also decreased. The machine - picked cotton purchase price is mostly between 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the high - quality seed cotton purchase price remains around 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Xinjiang has also slightly decreased, ranging from 6.8 - 7.1 yuan/kg. As of 24:00 on November 11, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season was 260,000 tons, and the national cumulative public inspection was 2.62 million tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the Chinese cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][19][21][29][31]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 10, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,580 with no change, trading volume increased by 45,473 to 204,378, and open interest decreased by 6,107 to 570,172 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13,580, down 10, trading volume increased by 35,272 to 69,837, and open interest decreased by 1,544 to 256,824 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13,755, up 10, trading volume increased by 469 to 832, and open interest increased by 143 to 4,253 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19,865, up 15, trading volume increased by 3,722 to 14,472, and open interest decreased by 75 to 24,967 [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19,860, up 40, trading volume increased by 2 to 4, and open interest remained at 28 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,075 with no change, trading volume and open interest remained at 0 and 4 respectively [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14,844 yuan/ton, up 24; CY IndexC32S was 20,520 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Cot A was 75.85 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21,202 yuan/ton, down 15 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 74.79, down 0.63; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 10,950 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,950 yuan/ton with no change; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 0, up 10; 5 - 9 month spread was - 175, down 20; 9 - 1 month spread was 175, up 10 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 5, down 25; 5 - 9 month spread was - 215, up 40; 9 - 1 month spread was 210, down 15 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,285, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 6,280, up 50; CY09 - CF09 was 6,320, down 10 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,574, up 105; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 707, up 61; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 682, up 15 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On November 10, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat. Transport demand decreased slightly, and capacity resources also decreased [4] - On November 9, 2024, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.25 yuan/kg, remaining flat; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg. The machine - picked cotton purchase price in Kashgar has been falling, and the overall purchase may end in about 10 days [4] - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season, 22% slower year - on - year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 948,500 tons, with a progress of 33.73%, down 23% year - on - year; Pima cotton inspection volume was 14,600 tons, with a progress of 22%, down 51% year - on - year [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered the off - season after the peak season. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations, cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. Over the weekend, the pure cotton yarn market had little change in trading, with mainly rigid demand. Spinners were reluctant to lower prices due to macro - level benefits and relatively low inventory, and some yarn prices even increased slightly. The supply pressure of new cotton is still high, and the situation of Zhengzhou cotton and terminal demand needs to be monitored [7] - Recently, the grey fabric market has improved. The price of all - cotton grey fabric has increased slightly, but it may decline if cotton prices fall again. Dyeing factories are not busy, with an order backlog of 7 - 10 days [8] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On November 10, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,580, the closing price was 240, down 5.5%, IV was 7.7%, Delta was 0.7228, Gamma was 0.0010, Vega was 12.9673, Theta was - 2.2310, theoretical leverage was 56.5833, and actual leverage was 40.8984 [10] - For the option contract CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 20, up 1900%, IV was 10.9%, Delta was - 0.0930, Gamma was 0.0004, Vega was 6.9517, Theta was - 1.6288, theoretical leverage was 679.0000, and actual leverage was 63.1470 [10] - For the option contract CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 6, up 500%, IV was 15.2%, Delta was - 0.0247, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 2.4170, Theta was - 0.7719, theoretical leverage was 2263.3333, and actual leverage was 55.9043 [10] Volatility - On November 10, 2025, the 30 - day HV of cotton was 7.0401, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.9%, and 15.2% respectively [10] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7040, and the volume PCR was 0.5921. Both call and put trading volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [11][12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the slight increase in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 63.87 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.50% increase from the opening price of 63.76 cents per pound [1] - On November 7, the ICE cotton futures showed a closing price of 63.68 cents per pound, down by 1.52% from the previous day, with a trading range between 63.57 and 64.74 cents per pound [2] - As of November 6, the national new cotton processing rate reached 48.0%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales rate improved by 12.2 percentage points to 18.3% [2] Group 2 - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 8.14% week-on-week, totaling 348,100 tons, with significant increases noted in certain regions [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported an increase in cotton futures warehouse receipts, rising by 291 to a total of 4,572 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].