Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown slight increases, with the current price reported at 67.01 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.13% rise [1] - On August 6, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.16 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.90 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.27% [2] - The average import price of cotton on August 6 was 74.66 cents per pound, which is an increase of 0.47 cents per pound compared to August 5 [2] Group 2 - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton was reported at 15,195 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 15 yuan per ton compared to August 5 [2] - The average price for 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,122 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 40 yuan per ton [2] - The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,812, which is a decrease of 99 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

Report Information - **Report Date**: August 7, 2025 [2] - **Industry**: Cotton [1] - **Research Analysts**: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustments. The spot cotton price has increased slightly, while the cotton yarn market price continues to decline, and the cotton fabric market remains sluggish. The international cotton market maintains a range - bound oscillation, and the domestic cotton has a high yield expectation, but the downstream industry is weak. After the short - term release of pessimistic sentiment, the market stabilizes, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price continues to decline by about 300 yuan/ton, with many inland spinning mills still limiting production. The cotton fabric market has insufficient transactions, and the factory production is expected to be sluggish in early August and improve in mid - August. The domestic cotton sown area has increased year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high yield. However, the downstream industry is weak, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] - **International Market**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, remaining stable from the previous week and higher than the same period last year. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slower, and the external market maintains a range - bound oscillation. [8] 3.2. Industry News - As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil is 29.7%, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvest is slower due to the impact of rain during the planting stage in Mato Grosso. However, the cotton growth is good, and the listing is expected to accelerate after the completion of corn and wheat harvests [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [15][19][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a strong fluctuation in cotton futures prices, with the current price at 66.53 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - As of July 31, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton reached 30,127,638 bales, totaling 6,803,087 tons, which is an increase of 18.79% year-on-year [1] - The inspection volume for Xinjiang cotton reached 6,432,548 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.22% [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2023, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week-on-week, totaling 335,400 tons [2] - In Shandong province, the inventory at Qingdao and Jinan ports dropped by 5.90% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.64% [2] - The Indian Cotton Association forecasts that the cotton arrival volume on July 31, 2025, will be approximately 9,500 bales, or 1,615 tons [2]

Group 1 - Vietnam imported goods worth 8.8 billion USD from the United States in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [1] - The largest category of imports from the U.S. was computers, electronic products, and components, totaling 2.5 billion USD, which is a 35.9% increase and accounts for 29% of total imports [1] - Cotton imports reached 799.4 million USD, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 79.3%, making up 9% of total imports [1] Group 2 - Notable month-on-month increases in import values were observed in several categories, including plastic raw materials (up 48.8%), fruits and vegetables (up 43.7%), wood and wooden products (up 75.5%), precious stones and metals (up 55.4%), and candy and confectionery products (up 690.3%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

1. Report Overview - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down significantly, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55% (down from 57% the previous week), the budding rate was 80% (up from 71% the previous week), and the boll - setting rate was 44% (up from 33% the previous week). The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of cotton had different basis quotes. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - **Macro and Industry Situation**: The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the budding rate was 80%, and the boll - setting rate was 44%. The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve's September interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest - rate cut. The Fed modified its description of the economic situation, stating that "economic activity growth has slowed down in the first half of the year" and that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains at a high level" [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][25]. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12].