Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [1][2] - For methanol, with装置集中回归, domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and port and enterprise inventories are high. However, short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and there may be short - term long opportunities after a decline [4][5] - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly. Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7][8][9] - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized, and it's recommended to set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. A partial position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy is also recommended [12][16] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [18][20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [22][23] - For polyethylene, the cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [25][26] - For polypropylene, there is supply pressure, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [28][29] - For PX, the load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [29][30] - For PTA, the supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30][31] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 9.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.98% decline, at 471.00 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.72 million barrels to 420.26 million barrels, a 0.89% increase; SPR increased by 0.29 million barrels to 406.99 million barrels, a 0.07% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels to 219.09 million barrels, a 0.73% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 2.02 million barrels to 121.56 million barrels, a 1.63% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.54 million barrels to 21.17 million barrels, a 2.62% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 44.27 million barrels, a 0.16% decrease [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see in the short - term [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 29 yuan, in Inner Mongolia dropped 12 yuan, in southern Shandong dropped 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 38 yuan, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 77. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 22, at - 56 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, demand is weak, and inventories are high. Short - selling has low cost - effectiveness, and consider short - term long positions after a decline [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong dropped 40 yuan, in Henan dropped 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 61 yuan, closing at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 49. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 21, at - 68 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure has increased, demand is average, and market sentiment is weak. Consider long positions at low prices [8][9] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has stabilized. The futures price of natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports have slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 tons, a 1% decrease month - on - month; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.7 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.6 tons, a 0.3% decrease month - on - month. As of September 28, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 44.93 (- 0.44) tons [12][13][14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Set a stop - loss and enter short - term long positions on pullbacks. Partially build a position in the RU2601 - RU2511 hedging strategy [16] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 70 yuan, closing at 4769 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 (- 60) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 129 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 323 (- 3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai decreased to 2400 (- 150) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 730 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 810 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 81.4%, a 2.5% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 82.1%, a 2.8% increase; the ethylene method was 79.8%, a 1.6% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.8%, a 1.5% decrease. Factory inventory was 31.8 tons (+ 1.2), and social inventory was 98.2 tons (+ 1) [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5795 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene dropped 125 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract dropped 17 yuan/ton to 6818 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18 yuan/ton, a weakening of 108 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 126.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 564.05 yuan/ton, unchanged; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.20% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.44 tons to 20.19 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase; the operating rate of PS was 62.50%, a 0.60% increase, the operating rate of EPS was 61.50%, a 0.48% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 71.00%, a 1.00% increase [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7077 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 75 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 23 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 1 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.6%, a 2.80% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 tons to 38.27 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 tons to 4.67 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.87% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 29 yuan/ton, a widening of 10 yuan/ton [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has some support, and the price may oscillate upward in the long - term [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 107 yuan/ton to 6745 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 6725 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.29%, a 0.05% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 52.03 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 18.72 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 tons to 6.65 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52%, a 0.15% increase. The LL - PP spread was 332 yuan/ton, a widening of 31 yuan/ton [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [29] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract increased by 16 yuan, closing at 6586 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, closing at 809 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was 44 yuan (- 12), and the 11 - 1 spread was 24 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX load, the load in China was 86.4%, a 0.3% decrease; the Asian load was 78%, a 0.2% decrease. Tianjin Petrochemical was restarting, overseas plants in Malaysia and South Korea's Hanwha were restarting, and a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 tons. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 tons. In terms of valuation cost, PXN was 217 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 107 US dollars (- 11) [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and there is a lack of driving force. Wait and see in the short - term [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 10 yuan, closing at 4584 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 35 yuan, closing at 4500 yuan, with a basis of - 63 (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 8). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. Terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. In terms of inventory, on September 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 210.7 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 38 yuan to 151 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 279 yuan [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high unexpected maintenance, and the demand is expected to remain high. Wait and see in the short - term [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 49 yuan, closing at 4158 yuan. The spot price in East China dropped 51 yuan, closing at 4224 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+ 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (- 2). The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase; among them, the syngas method was 78.8%, a 4.5% increase; the ethylene - based load remained flat at 72.9%. The syngas - based plants such as Tianye were restarted, and Shenhua Yulin increased its load; in the petrochemical sector, Satellite Petrochemical was restarted, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and Sanjiang increased its load. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.2% increase. The terminal draw - texturing load remained flat at 81%, and the weaving machine load decreased by 1% to 69%. The import arrival forecast was 23.4 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports during the National Day was 0.6 tons. The port inventory was 50.7 tons, a 9.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 723 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 639 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 560 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat at 810 US dollars, and the price of raw coal fines at Yulin pithead remained flat at 620 yuan [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and it's expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. Wait and see in the short - term [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC shows a hesitant attitude with a slightly stronger willingness to support prices than to expand market share, and the slight increase plan will continue to suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of methanol have marginally improved, and the downside space is expected to be relatively limited. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. - Urea is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. With no effective positive factors in reality, it is suggested to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand, and the export outlook is weak. In the short term, the valuation has declined to a low level, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space, and the price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. - The price of polyethylene may oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to the Korean ethylene clearance policy. In the short term, it may gap down at the opening [20]. - For polypropylene, there is a large supply pressure, and the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - **Market Information**: As of October 8, 2025, the WTI crude oil main contract was quoted at $62.33/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract was quoted at $65.89/barrel. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased by 1.15 million barrels, and the overall inventory situation was still healthy. The OPEC meeting ended on October 5, with a final decision of a "principled low - speed production increase" of 137,000 barrels per day [1]. - **Strategy**: OPEC's hesitant attitude will suppress the upside space of oil prices, and crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. Most other commodities rose more than they fell. Before the holiday, the price in Taicang fell by 11 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia rose by 5 yuan, and the price in southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract of the futures price fell by 31 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 86 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 34 [3]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side start - up has declined, and the enterprise profit is low. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants have restarted and increased their loads, and the traditional demand has generally seen an increase in start - up, but the profit is still low. The overall demand has marginally improved. The inventory has decreased at a high level in ports and at a low level year - on - year in inland enterprises. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the ex - factory price in Shandong remained stable, the ex - factory price in Henan fell by 20 yuan, and the market price generally continued the weak trend. Before the holiday, the 01 contract of the futures price rose by 7 yuan to 1670 yuan, with a basis of - 70 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 4 to - 47 [5]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has stabilized at a low level. The domestic supply has returned, the start - up has increased significantly, and the enterprise profit is still low, with increased supply pressure. The demand for compound fertilizers has seen more shutdowns, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season, with general demand and weak market sentiment. The enterprise inventory continues to increase. It is recommended to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, commodities were generally positive. Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. In Thailand's spot market, the prices were mixed. The total inventory of natural rubber in China decreased marginally. The start - up load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down, and the domestic sales market demand was weak [8][9][10]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell by 57 yuan to 4839 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 139 (+ 27) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 320 (- 10) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall start - up rate of PVC increased, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise comprehensive profit has continued to decline, the valuation pressure has further decreased, the maintenance volume is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices will be tested in the short term. The domestic downstream start - up has declined, the domestic demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, the spot price of styrene fell by 50 yuan to 6850 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract of styrene fell by 7 yuan to 6932 yuan/ton, the basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, the non - integrated device profit of EB increased, and the spread between EB contracts decreased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the port inventory in Jiangsu increased, and the demand - side start - up rate of three S decreased overall, except for ABS [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost - side supply is still abundant, the supply - side start - up of styrene continues to rise, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the demand - side start - up rate has decreased. The price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polyethylene rose by 18 yuan to 7181 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7160 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 18 yuan to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up decreased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the downstream average start - up rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread expanded [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may gap down at the opening due to the large decline in crude oil prices during the holiday. The cost side still has support, the spot price has fallen, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory has decreased at a high level, the seasonal peak season may come, and the price may oscillate upward in the long term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polypropylene rose by 3 yuan to 6903 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6795 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 3 yuan to - 102 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up increased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the port inventory increased, the downstream average start - up rate increased, and the LL - PP spread expanded [22]. - **Strategy**: There is a large supply pressure, the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell by 100 yuan to 6570 yuan, the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 804 dollars, the basis increased by 32 yuan to 56 yuan, the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 16 yuan to 12 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia decreased slightly. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load increased slightly, and the import volume of Korean PX to China decreased in mid - and early - September. The inventory increased in late August, and the PXN and naphtha crack spread increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The current PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short term, the overall load center is low, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell by 58 yuan to 4594 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 55 yuan to 4535 yuan, the basis decreased by 8 yuan to - 63 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 yuan to - 40 yuan. The PTA load increased slightly, some devices had maintenance or restart, the downstream load increased, the terminal load increased, the social inventory increased slightly, and the spot and futures processing fees decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell by 17 yuan to 4207 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 4275 yuan, the basis increased by 1 yuan to 68 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12 yuan to - 75 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly, some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance, restart, or load adjustment. The downstream load increased, the import arrival forecast was 234,000 tons, the East China departure was 13,600 tons on September 29, the port inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 409,000 tons. The naphtha - based and domestic ethylene - based profits were negative, and the coal - based profit was positive. The cost side remained stable [28]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the overall fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - Regarding urea, it is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] - For rubber, maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15] - For styrene, the price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] - For PX, the inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Market Information - INE main crude oil futures rose 8.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.72%, to 490.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 37.00 yuan/ton, or 1.30%, to 2887.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 53.00 yuan/ton, or 1.56%, to 3450.00 yuan/ton [1] - US EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, including a 0.61 - million - barrel decrease in commercial crude oil inventories to 414.75 million barrels [1] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Methanol Market Information - The price in Taicang dropped 3 yuan/ton, while Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 5 yuan/ton to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 32, showing a low - level oscillation [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply - side production declined, and enterprise profits decreased. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants restarted and the load increased. The overall demand improved marginally. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] Urea Market Information - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a slight decline in some areas. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan/ton to 1674 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73 [7] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 53 [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is average. The market sentiment is weak, and enterprise inventories are rising. It is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] Rubber Market Information - The rubber price was weak. The market expected a 62,000 - ton state reserve release. From September 16, 2025, the RU position structure changed. A super typhoon may have a positive impact, and the EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation laws [10] - As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1235,000 tons [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] PVC Market Information - The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton [14] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a 3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 49.2%, a 1.7% increase. Factory inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.9 million tons [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Styrene Market Information - The cost - side pure benzene price remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6958 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [18] - The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, a 1.6% decrease. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The downstream "Three S" weighted operating rate was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase [18] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] Polyethylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.73%, a 0.74% decrease [20] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 43%, a 0.08% increase [20] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] Polypropylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 6898 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.05%, a 2.32% increase [23] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, a 0.59% increase [23] Strategy Viewpoint - There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] PX Market Information - The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 86.3%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a 0.8% decrease [26] - PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 5.6 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of July decreased by 24 million tons month - on - month [27] Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] PTA Market Information - The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The East China spot price rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease [29] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The social inventory on September 19 increased by 1.1 million tons [29] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] Ethylene Glycol Market Information - The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, a 1.1% decrease [32] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons [32] Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Urea**: The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. - **Rubber**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. - **Styrene**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. - **Polyethylene**: The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Polypropylene**: There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and the short - term situation lacks prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - **PX**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **PTA**: The supply side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the overall load center is low. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In the fourth quarter, it will turn to inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.00 yuan/barrel, or 1.47%, to 482.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed gains. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [8]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a small amount, it is believed that this is a stress test on the market. The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang rose 18 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton to 2351 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 28 [2]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side start - up rate has declined, and the demand - side port olefin plants have restarted. The overall demand has improved marginally. However, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while in Henan it fell 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market rose to 1673 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 51 [5]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen with increasing positions. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Affected by Super Typhoon "Hagasa", there will be heavy rainfall in some Southeast Asian regions, which is clearly bullish. The EU has postponed the implementation of its anti - deforestation law, with a marginal reduction in bullish factors. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous period [11][13]. - **Strategy Views**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 77%, a decrease of 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream start - up rate was 49.2%, an increase of 1.7% from the previous period [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. Even though the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, while the futures price rose. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the styrene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side overall start - up rate of three S products fluctuated upwards [20]. - **Strategy Views**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 7142 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 82.28%, an increase of 0.71% from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory and trader inventory both increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Views**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price. The overall inventory is at a high level and is being reduced, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching. The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 6877 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 23 yuan/ton, a weakening of 27 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side still has 145 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [27]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The PX load in China was 86.3%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period. Some PX plants had maintenance or load adjustments. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period [30]. - **Strategy Views**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a relatively low overall load center. The PTA new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, and the PX maintenance is also postponed. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. The PXN is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Some PTA plants had maintenance, restart, or load reduction. The downstream load was 91.4%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous period [33]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak, putting pressure on raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side domestic and overseas plant loads are at a high level, and the domestic supply is relatively high. The port inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons [36]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less port arrivals. In the medium - term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37].