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广发期货有色日报-20250912
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the rate - cut space. In the short - term, the rate - cut expectation boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it shows a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply elasticity is insufficient. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand will improve marginally. Without a clear US recession expectation, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The main contract is expected to range from 79,500 to 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Although the short - term import of bauxite is tight, the new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is under pressure, but the downside is limited as it approaches the cost zone. It is expected to oscillate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to oscillate around the actual peak - season demand, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts the sentiment of bulk commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by uncertain tax policies, and the demand is slightly warming but needs verification. The inventory is still accumulating, and the import resources are limited. The ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 to 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The US inflation data improves the rate - cut expectation and boosts zinc prices. The supply side is in an upward cycle of production resumption, and the smelting profit is repaired. The demand side is about to enter the peak season, and the global inventory is low. In the short - term, zinc prices may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees are low. The actual ore output from Myanmar is expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be offset by the growth in emerging fields. The spot market is divided. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the operating range from 265,000 to 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace slows down. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, with the Fed's rate - cut expectation rising and domestic policies being supportive. The raw material prices are firm, but the stainless - steel profit is in deficit, which will suppress nickel - iron. The supply is under pressure as the September production schedule is expected to increase. The demand improvement has not been significantly reflected, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market oscillates and strengthens in the afternoon with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The whole - chain de - stocking is accelerating. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main contract ranging from 70,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54%. The spot premium and other price - related indicators also changed. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.80% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The import volume in July decreased by 1.20%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.14% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. The alumina prices in different regions showed slight declines [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.30%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.16% week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88%. The regenerative aluminum alloy inventory increased by 33.83% week - on - week [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss increased [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The import volume in July decreased by 50.35%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 5.98% week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import decreased by 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production increased by 15.42%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,450 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.08%. The production cost of different nickel - related products changed [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel product output increased by 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B stainless - steel price remained stable. The futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased to 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%. The lithium - related raw material prices also declined [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand increased by 8.25%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [15].
有色日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].
聚焦有色产业 共探期货服务实体新路径
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-11 00:04
Group 1 - The online seminar on the integration of production and finance in the non-ferrous metal futures and spot market was launched to promote deep integration in the industry [1] - The seminar series will cover 11 sessions focusing on various non-ferrous metal futures products, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate [1] - The first session on copper discussed the global copper industry status and how to leverage futures market functions for high-quality development [1][2] Group 2 - Zhang Nan, Deputy Secretary-General of the Copper Industry Association, highlighted key aspects for copper enterprises, including industry structure, consumption growth, and regulatory requirements [2] - Mo Xinda, Deputy Secretary-General of the Aluminum Industry Association, discussed the global aluminum industry and emphasized the importance of green low-carbon development [2] - The copper market has seen a price increase and higher volatility since 2020, impacting downstream enterprises' cost management [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported significant trading activity in copper futures, with 22.7 million contracts traded in the first half of 2025, amounting to 879 million yuan [4] - The total trading volume of non-ferrous metal futures on SHFE reached 197 million contracts in the first half of 2025, with a transaction value of 27.8 trillion yuan [5] - The introduction of aluminum alloy futures has filled a gap in the processing sector, enhancing risk management across the aluminum industry [4] Group 4 - The SHFE shared strategies for hedging in non-ferrous metal enterprises, including setting target prices and dynamically adjusting hedging ratios [6] - Companies are encouraged to utilize both futures and spot markets for hedging to stabilize their operations and manage risks effectively [6] - The focus on risk management through futures markets is seen as essential for the sustainable profitability of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal sector [3][6]
铝产业链周报-20250908
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].
《有色》日报-20250903
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:33
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Copper: The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. Copper prices will at least remain volatile. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500. [1] - Aluminum: The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", with limited upside and downside space, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market presents a resonance pattern of improved macro - expectations and fundamentals, but high prices suppress downstream purchases. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates downward with the aluminum price. If the import ratio remains stable and the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap aluminum is limited, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton. [5] - Zinc: The supply side of zinc has a loose expectation, and the price may mainly fluctuate. The upward continuous rebound requires an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in the non - recession interest - rate cut expectation. The downward breakthrough requires an unexpected strengthening of TC and continuous inventory accumulation. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 23,000. [7] - Tin: Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, boosting the tin price. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with an operating range of 265,000 - 285,000. [9] - Nickel: The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 126,000. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space of the price. [11] - Stainless Steel: The short - term stainless steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400. The raw material price is firm, providing cost support, but the spot demand is weak. [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is expected to mainly oscillate widely after the price center moves down, with the main contract in the range of 72,000 - 78,000. The supply - side news has not been fully settled before the end of September, and the fundamental improvement provides support for the price. [15] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.64% to 79,900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.03% to 175.85 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. - In July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.53% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The alumina prices in most regions decreased slightly. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [5] Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. - The operating rates of some recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.41% to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. - In July, the refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 272,500 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.44% to 175.00 US dollars/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. - In July, the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.55% to 124,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 5.24% to - 183 US dollars/ton. [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. - The refined nickel import volume in August was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased. - The futures - spot price difference decreased by 18.68% to 370 yuan/ton. [13] Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. - The stainless steel net export volume in August was 34.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37%. [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.63% to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.68% to 76,050 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.45% to 898 US dollars/ton. [15] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. - In August, the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. [15]
有色金属基础周报:宏观影响反复,有色金属整体震荡偏强-20250901
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is mainly influenced by macro - factors, showing a high - level range - bound and strong trend. With the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the copper price may have an upward space [3]. - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, changes in alumina production capacity, and demand recovery. It is recommended to go long on aluminum at low prices and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. - The zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand recovery. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The lead price is in a short - term weak and range - bound situation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [3]. - The nickel market is in a long - term supply surplus situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and conduct range trading for stainless steel [4]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak demand in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to supply and demand changes [4]. - The industrial silicon market has high risks before the release of the photovoltaic conference results. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream production reduction and downstream production scheduling [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **8/25 - 8/31 Economic Data**: The US economic data is mixed, with some indicators better than expected and some worse. For example, the US 7 - month Chicago Fed National Activity Index was - 0.19, worse than the forecast of - 0.11; the 7 - month durable goods orders had a month - on - month initial value of - 2.8%, better than the forecast of - 3.80% [11]. - **Policies and Events**: The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", aiming to promote the integration of AI in multiple fields. Trump removed the Fed governor, which may affect the Fed's independence [12][14]. - **9/1 - 9/7 Forecast Data**: Forecasts for economic data such as China's and the euro - zone's PMIs, and US employment data are provided, but the actual values are not given [17]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price is in a high - level range - bound and strong trend, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market supply has increased, while downstream replenishment is cautious. The apparent consumption shows the resilience of demand [3]. - **Inventory**: LME and US COMEX copper inventories are increasing, while the domestic inventory is relatively stable [3]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price is in a high - level range - bound and upward - trending state. The short - term operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 - 20,950 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased steadily. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [3]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is high. The downstream consumption recovery is not significant, and enterprises mainly make rigid purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons from August 21 [3]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price is in a short - term weak - range - bound state, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the SHFE lead inventory has increased. The downstream lead consumption is insufficient, and the market is sensitive to price changes [3]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price is in a range - bound state in the short - term, with a reference operating range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, and the nickel market is in a surplus state. The demand for nickel iron has certain support, and the downstream of stainless steel mainly makes rigid purchases [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover gradually [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventories are at a medium level and have increased [4]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price is in a wide - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the production of polysilicon has also increased. The production of organic silicon has decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, while the three - port inventory has remained flat [4]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range - bound state, and it is recommended to trade carefully [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is affected by mining license issues, and the demand for energy storage terminals is good [4]. - **Inventory**: No specific inventory information is provided [4].
新能源及有色金属日报:氧化铝盘面价格贴近高成本-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market shows a resonance between micro and macro factors during the transition between consumption off - peak and peak seasons. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the overall non - ferrous metals are in a strong and volatile state. The supply of aluminum fundamentals is stable, and consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season. The start - up rate of downstream industries is increasing, and aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline soon. Long - term supply is restricted, and consumption maintains stable growth [6]. - For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea supports the ore price, but domestic smelters have sufficient ore reserves and high port inventory, so the ore price lacks upward momentum. The current futures price is close to the highest full production cost and at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot price. There may be short - term disturbances due to the upcoming election in Guinea and potential impacts on domestic associated bauxite production [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, the consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season, the smelting profit of the industry is rapidly recovering, and the supply of scrap materials remains tight. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On August 28, 2025, the SMM data shows that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,735 yuan/ton, closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 153,341 lots, and the position was 245,028 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 28, 2025, the SMM statistics show that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, a change of 0.4 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 57,275 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 481,150 tons, a change of - 100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 28, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,310 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,040 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.10%. The highest price was 3,066 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,901 lots, and the position was 240,777 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 28, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [10]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 and short AL11 [10].
活力中国调研行 | 内蒙古高质量发展三问
Nei Meng Gu Ri Bao· 2025-08-29 04:16
Group 1: Ecological Restoration and Development - The Chulu River Grassland has transformed from a barren land to a vibrant ecological area, integrating tourism, recreation, and ecological research, with over 30,000 acres restored since 2012 [3][5][9] - The ecological restoration efforts in the Khorchin Sandy Land have led to a vegetation coverage of 69.4% and the effective management of 13.2 million acres of desertified land [8][9] - Inner Mongolia's Daxing'anling forest area, covering 83,700 square kilometers, acts as a significant carbon sink, sequestering over 36 million tons of CO2 annually [9] Group 2: Renewable Energy Integration - The integration of wind and solar energy projects in Inner Mongolia has led to the development of a "grass-solar" model, improving the ecological environment while generating renewable energy [12][13] - The region has seen the establishment of large-scale wind and solar energy bases, contributing to the transformation of arid areas into productive energy landscapes [15][16] Group 3: Traditional Industry Transformation - The Baofeng Coal-based New Materials Company has invested 67.3 billion yuan to create the world's largest single-plant ethylene facility, producing 13.25 million tons of methanol and 5 million tons of ethylene annually [18][19] - Inner Mongolia is transitioning from a coal-dependent economy to a modern coal chemical industry, with a projected output value of over 100 billion yuan in 2024 [19][21] Group 4: Aluminum Industry Development - The city of Hohhot is transforming its aluminum industry from traditional high-energy and high-pollution practices to a green and intelligent model, focusing on high-performance aluminum alloys and advanced manufacturing [20][21] - The region aims to establish itself as "China's Green Electricity Aluminum City," with ongoing projects enhancing production capabilities and promoting vertical integration within the aluminum supply chain [20][21]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation." The weak reality lies in the expected decline in demand in the second half of the year, while the stable expectation is that the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of domestic stimulus policies will boost the price. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and entering a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: The market is in an overall supply - surplus pattern. Although cost support and some factory overhauls exist, the short - term weakness is hard to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. Mid - term, one can consider short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the short term, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. However, supply pressure remains, and cost support is weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The supply of scrap aluminum is tightening, and costs are under pressure. Demand in the communication die - casting sector is picking up, while that in the automotive sector is still weak. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the depletion of overseas inventories provides price support. The short - term may still be dominated by oscillations. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts the upward movement of tin prices. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly, short - selling on rallies is the main strategy; if the recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is stabilizing, and costs provide certain support. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term is expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the market sentiment is still cautious due to weak spot demand. The short - term is expected to oscillate within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply contraction expectations are gradually being realized, and demand is showing a positive trend. The short - term price has limited downward space, and upward breakthroughs require new drivers. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.45% to 79,190 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 168.48 yuan/ton to 337 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The electrolytic copper import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped by 0.53% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. Monthly Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in the southwest region dropped by 0.48% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in various regions decreased [4]. Monthly Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.63% to 22,130 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 145.76 yuan/ton to 1,664 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [6]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.07% to 271,800 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium dropped by 4.62% to 165 dollars/ton. The import loss increased by 7.11% to 19,581 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.14% to 121,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 dropped by 4 dollars/ton to - 189 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 490 yuan/ton to - 1,430 yuan/ton [10]. Monthly Data - The Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while the refined nickel import volume increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The prices of most raw materials remained stable, while the price of 304 waste stainless steel in Wenzhou dropped by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The stainless steel import volume decreased by 33.30% to 7.30 million tons, and the export volume increased by 6.74% to 41.63 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 1.96% to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 2.02% to 77,700 yuan/ton [16]. Monthly Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40% [16].