本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/3/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,119.00 | +31↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1740831 | -57901↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13863 | +16675↑ RB ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号: F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号: Z0013101 助理研究员: 陈星宇 期货从业资格号: F03146061 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/3/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,132.00 | +2.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,868.00 | 0.00 | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, in the short term, supported by energy and Two - Sessions policies, but facing pressure from a loose fundamental situation, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and tend to rise [2]. - For coke, affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the policy expectations of the Two - Sessions in the short term, there is certain support. However, the coke market has a loose supply - demand situation, with weak rigid demand from steel mills and limited start - up. The futures price is also expected to fluctuate and tend to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1168.00 yuan/ton, up 45.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1740.00 yuan/ton, up 44.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 601236.00 lots, down 80826.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 44867.00 lots, up 2535.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 68168.00 lots, up 8604.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 4743.00 lots, down 3864.00 lots [2]. - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 83.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 63.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: - 1.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 1020.00 yuan/ton; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 162.50 US dollars/wet ton; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (yard price): 1570.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal (yard price): 1610.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1387.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; J main contract basis: - 75.00 yuan/ton, down 99.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1280.00 yuan/ton; JM main contract basis: 137.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants: 19.90 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants: 288.50 million tons, down 10.40 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.27%, up 0.04%; monthly raw coal output: 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons [2]. - Monthly coal and lignite import volume: 5860.00 million tons, up 1455.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 182.90 million tons, up 31.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports: 485.74 million tons, down 8.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports: 270.71 million tons, up 9.01 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 796.15 million tons, down 33.31 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide: 775.64 million tons, down 16.82 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 63.20 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills: 671.26 million tons, down 3.85 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.41 days, down 0.24 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills: 12.53 days, up 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Monthly coking coal import volume: 1376.98 million tons, up 303.87 million tons; monthly coke and semi - coke export volume: 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2]. - Monthly total coking coal supply: 5478.50 million tons, up 238.93 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 72.29%, down 0.54% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants: 17.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; monthly coke output: 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 77.71%, down 2.51%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Monthly crude steel output: 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The central bank governor said that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used to create a good monetary and financial environment for a good start of the 15th Five - Year Plan [2]. - Mysteel reported that on March 6, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented [2]. - US President Trump said that no agreement will be reached with Iran unless it unconditionally surrenders. He is not worried about the rise in US gasoline prices, which is only temporary and will soon drop significantly. He said that Iran may suffer a "very heavy blow" [2].

涨1.3%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.8%。受国际大宗商品价格上行，国内部分 行业需求快速增长、宏观政策持续显效等因素影响，全国PPI环比上涨0.4%，同比下降0.9%， 降幅连续收窄。 国债期货日报 2026/3/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.315 | -0.21% T主力成交量 | 122889 | 64877↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.980 | -0.14% TF主力成交量 | 80258 | 28721↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | -0.04% TS主力成交量 | 39934 | 10815↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.520 | -1.11% TL主力成交量 | 148019 | 78211↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2606-2603价差 | 0.12 | -0.24↓ T06-TL06价差 | -3.21 | 1.04↑ | | | T2606-26 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic policy aims for a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for the year 2026, with a focus on active fiscal policies and revitalizing the private economy[5] - CPI shows a marginal decline while PPI surged significantly due to geopolitical influences, particularly in energy and chemical products[5] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for February showed a significant drop of 92,000 jobs, much lower than the expected increase of 55,000[14] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continues to create uncertainty and volatility in asset prices[8] - The geopolitical situation is expected to maintain high volatility, impacting oil prices and inflation expectations, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[15] Market Trends - Global stock markets experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the S&P 500 down 2.02% during the week of March 2-8, 2026[9] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 28.68% while copper prices fell by 3.69%[9] Investment Strategies - Recommendations include overweighting A-shares and H-shares due to expected positive economic policies and stable capital market reforms[18] - The report suggests a focus on energy security and the development of a new energy system, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting energy supplies[23] Sectoral Developments - The AI-driven pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements, with AI becoming a crucial infrastructure for drug development, enhancing efficiency and reducing timelines[36] - The telecommunications sector is preparing for the transition to 6G technology, with significant investments expected in satellite communication and high-frequency technologies[32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The price trend of the current oil and fat market is highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle East situation, forming the core logic that "the duration of the war determines the price level." The deterioration of the situation causes a surge in crude oil prices, which in turn affects oil and fat prices through multiple paths such as cost transmission, demand substitution, supply chain disruptions, and market sentiment. Before the war shows a clear end signal, the market will trade on the "conflict premium," and the price center is expected to rise. Once the war ends, oil and fat prices will face systematic downward pressure, but in the long term, supported by fundamental factors such as low inventory and weather, it is expected to turn into a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Scenario Deduction: War Process Determines Short - term Path - **Scenario 1 (Quick End, 1 - 2 Weeks)**: The market will be volatile and weak. If the conflict ends quickly in the short term, the geopolitical risk premium will fade, leading to a rapid decline in crude oil prices. This will weaken the speculative sentiment in the vegetable oil market, and given the current fundamentals of the oil and fat market (such as seasonal production increase in major producing countries, flat demand, and high inventory), prices will follow the decline of crude oil [3]. - **Scenario 2 (Short - term Stalemate, About 1 Month)**: The market will be volatile and strong. If the war lasts for about a month, crude oil prices will be continuously supported at a high level. This will systematically increase the transportation cost of oil and fat and the supply uncertainty of imported oilseeds. More importantly, the continuously high crude oil prices will significantly enhance the economic attractiveness of palm oil and other oils and fats as raw materials for biodiesel, stimulating the marginal improvement expectation of industrial demand. Under the combined effect of cost - push and positive demand expectation, oil and fat prices are expected to gain phased upward momentum [4]. - **Scenario 3 (Prolonged War, 3 - 6 Months or More)**: The trend will be strong. If the conflict becomes long - term, its impact will deepen and spread. On the one hand, crude oil will remain at a high level or even continue to rise, continuously pushing up the costs of the entire industrial chain (transportation, fertilizers, production). On the other hand, the supply side will be blocked due to risks in key shipping lanes (such as the Strait of Hormuz), and poor logistics will intensify regional supply shortages. On the demand side, high oil prices will irreversibly promote the increase of the biodiesel blending ratio, bringing about unexpected growth in demand. Under the resonance of "high cost + weak supply + strong demand," oil and fat prices will enter a medium - to - long - term upward channel, and the main contract of vegetable oil may challenge the range of 10,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton or even higher [4]. 2. Post - war Outlook: Premium Reversal and Logic Switch - After the war ends, the "conflict premium" in the oil and fat market will experience a systematic reversal. The core negative logic will be concentrated: the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will increase global crude oil supply, oil prices will fall; the speculative sentiment in vegetable oil will cool down, and shipping costs will decrease; the price difference between oil and fat and crude oil will widen, and the demand for biodiesel will weaken; the costs of fertilizers and other items will fall. The fundamental expectation will turn loose, and it is expected that oil and fat prices will experience a significant phased correction [4]. - After the conflict premium weakens, there are still medium - to - long - term supporting factors in the oil and fat industry. In terms of weather and supply, the transition process from La Nina to El Nino and its actual impact on the production of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed in Southeast Asia will become the core of pricing again. In terms of demand, the trends of global biodiesel mandatory blending policies will be the key to affecting the long - term demand structure. Currently, the global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is still at a historically low level, providing medium - to - long - term bottom support for prices [5].

Report Title - Geopolitical factors cause disturbances, and the market rebounds from a low position. Double Coking Weekly Report 20260309 [1] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng. Qualifications: F3036194 (Practicing Qualification), Z0015986 (Investment Consulting) [1] Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 82.32% (+14.08%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 74.78 tons (+9.08). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 26.57% (+3.84%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 19.9 tons (+2.99). Most coal mines in major producing areas have resumed normal production, and the supply of imported Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has also returned to a high level [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the blast furnace operating rate was 77.71% (-2.51). The available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 12.41 days (-0.24), and those in 230 independent coking plants were 11.88 days (-0.4). During the important meetings, steel mills in North China limited production. After the production limit ends, downstream coking plants and steel mills are expected to replenish their inventories [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 286.26 tons (+28.6), that of all - sample independent coking plants was 949.45 tons (-49.41), that of steel mills was 775.64 tons (-16.82), that of 314 sample coal washing plants was 288.53 tons (-10.4), and that of major ports was 267.7 tons (-4.27). Currently, except for a slight accumulation of mine inventories, the inventories of other coking plants, coal washing plants, and steel mills have decreased [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market increased. With the end of production limits, downstream demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand structure is expected to gradually improve. It is expected to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 17 yuan/ton (+24). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 73.95% (-0.41%), and the daily output was 63.94 tons (-0.76). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47 tons (-0.1). During the Two Sessions, some coking enterprises in Hebei limited production, and overall production remained stable [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the blast furnace operating rate was 77.71% (-2.51). The available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.53 days (+0.12). After the production limit ends, the demand for coke replenishment is expected to increase [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 110.3 tons (+2.48), that of major ports was 203.11 tons (+6.01), and that of 247 steel mills was 671.26 tons (-3.85). The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [4]. - Summary: The supply - demand situation of coke is weak, but with the recovery of molten iron production and the increase in raw material coking coal prices, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [4]. Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the steel industry and the manufacturing industry [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal in the country, the basis of coking coal contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills, the inventories of various entities, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [21][26][33] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule and comparison of coke, the basis of coke contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventories of various entities, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills [62][64][70]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - After the Spring Festival, the CSI 1000 Index initially rose but then回调 sharply due to the sudden outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28. After a week, the market gradually digested the short - term disturbances, and the index returned to its fundamentals. Using CSI 1000 index options to construct an option portfolio strategy can control risks while retaining appropriate return expectations. Currently, it is a good time to construct a bull spread strategy [2]. - In the short term, the CSI 1000 Index is expected to fluctuate strongly. The bull spread strategy can capture potential gains from a moderate rise and control the risk of a sharp decline caused by unexpected events [12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Analysis based on Position PCR - As of March 5, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 88.67%, at the 32.1% quantile level since 2025, a significant drop from the high of 101.1% on February 27. The current low position PCR indicates that the CSI 1000 Index has limited room for further decline and a high probability of a rebound [3]. 2. Analysis based on Implied Volatility - As of March 5, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 22.62%, at the 58.1% quantile level since 2025, showing a significant decline from 28.91% on February 13 and 26.30% on March 4. The high implied volatility on these two dates was due to the Spring Festival holiday effect and the spread of Middle - East geopolitical risks respectively. Currently, the implied volatility is slightly high but normal in the current market environment, and there is no significant advantage or disadvantage for option buyers and sellers [4][6]. 3. Analysis based on Policy and Capital - Policy support is strong. The government work report on March 5 proposed a more active fiscal policy, with a deficit ratio of about 4%, an increase of 230 billion yuan in the deficit scale, a general public budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan for the first time, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds. These policies can boost macro - demand and support corporate earnings and stock prices [8]. - The government also plans to cultivate new growth drivers, develop new - quality productivity, and build a modern industrial system. The CSI 1000 Index, mainly composed of small - and medium - sized enterprises, will benefit from policies supporting high - tech industries [9]. - The continuous inflow of funds into the stock market and policy support form the core logic for the medium - and long - term upward trend of the CSI 1000 Index [7]. 4. Bull Spread Strategy - A bull spread strategy, such as a call bull spread (buy 1 call option and sell 1 call option with a higher strike price of the same expiration month), is suitable for the current market situation. It can increase the winning rate by making the index's fluctuation range fall within the positive - return range of the expiration profit - loss curve. It has limited maximum losses (the initial net premium paid), and can accumulate floating profits when the index rises [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile trends due to a loose supply - demand pattern. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, and the short - term market will fluctuate narrowly as the overall supply - demand fundamentals have not improved [6][33] - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see; for glass, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [8][33] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The short - term is expected to remain weakly volatile, and subsequent attention should be paid to device maintenance, inventory reduction, and policy implementation [6][8] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with slight local price fluctuations. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and the market was in a weakly stable adjustment stage. The futures market was first weak, then strong, and then volatile. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose, and external factors only caused short - term disturbances [8] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soda ash market had light trading last week, with stable prices. After the holiday, the start - up rate increased, but downstream resumption was slow, and factory inventories accumulated to a high level. Futures fluctuated and then sorted out, waiting for further supply - demand guidance [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The soda ash spot market was stable last week, with a loose supply - demand situation and continuous inventory pressure. Futures were affected by sentiment but were suppressed by the fundamentals, with limited rebound space [12] 3.3 Relevant Data - Soda ash: China's weekly start - up rate, weekly production, weekly light and heavy inventory, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [13][17][20] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The short - term market will fluctuate narrowly, and subsequent attention should be paid to the demand release during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the domestic float glass market was weakly volatile, with different regional performances. Demand release was slow, downstream start - up was low, and inventory generally increased in each region. The overall supply - demand fundamentals had not improved, and market sentiment was cautious [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [33] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The float glass market showed mixed trends last week, with a 70 - yuan/ton increase in East China. Downstream resumption was slow, trading was weak, and industry inventory increased significantly. Glass futures first declined, then rose, and then fell back, caught in the game between weak reality and macro - expectations [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: The float glass market was regionally differentiated last week. Demand was weak, making it difficult to implement price increases, and inventory increased in various places. Futures were caught in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, with cost and policies providing support, but high inventory suppressing the market, and short - term volatility will continue [37] 3.3 Relevant Data - Float glass: China's weekly production, weekly start - up rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [39][43][47]