1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [8][9][10] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [9] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed down, and the hedging force has taken profit. The market is waiting for further catalysts to rise. It is necessary to observe policy signals and the sustainability of the main line [3][9] - The sentiment in the stock index options market has improved with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to the lower support level. For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy, and for those without positions, consider selling put options after confirming the support [4][9] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank's operations have maintained the balance of the short - term capital market. Although the bond market direction is unclear, it is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward bias in the future [5][10][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The current month's basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 12.85, - 6.16, - 41.37, and - 61.21 points respectively, with changes of - 40.44, - 20.91, - 98.36, and - 123.71 points compared to the previous trading day [8] - The inter - month spreads (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 15.8, 2.8, 50, and 65.4 points respectively, with环比 changes of - 37, - 21.4, - 54.4, and - 46.6 points [8] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 7338, - 5627, - 12741, and - 21593 lots respectively [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and oscillated on Monday, and the market stopped falling. The hedging sentiment eased. The decline of US technology stocks slowed down, reducing the domestic liquidity pressure. High - beta sectors led the rebound, and the short - selling profit - taking in the futures market promoted the convergence of the basis discount [3][9] - The secondary upward movement of the market still awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, continue the dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the window for layout switching. The operation suggestion is to combine the dividend ETF with long positions in IM [3][9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued the defensive sentiment at the opening but stabilized in the afternoon. The CSI 1000 rose 1.26%. The trading volume in the options market was 8344 million yuan, a 46.10% decrease from the previous day. The implied volatility index decreased by an average of 1.53%. The short - term defensive behavior in the market weakened, and there was a new trend of selling options entering the market. Multiple varieties' position PCRs hit the bottom [4][9] - For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy to increase returns. For those without positions, considering the high skewness level of each variety, sell put options after confirming the lower support [4][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 79246, 46495, 23207, and 64907 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 23755, - 17953, - 6065, and - 32915 lots. The positions were 68863, 42749, 11765, and 47308 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 31002, - 12913, - 10325, and - 12009 lots [10] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.170, - 0.105, 0.042, and 0.180 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.020, - 0.055, - 0.008, and - 0.020 yuan [10] - The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL in the current quarter were 103.275, 99.030, 301.335, and 209.755 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.005, - 0.035, - 0.075, and 0.035 yuan [10] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL was 0.023, - 0.022, - 0.009, and 0.115 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.064, - 0.050, 0.000, and - 0.049 yuan [10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 5.57 billion yuan, and the MLF operation had a net investment of 10 billion yuan. The capital market remained balanced. The stock - bond seesaw effect was evident, but the bond market direction is unclear due to differences in expectations for loose monetary policy and the undetermined fund fee regulations. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][10][11] - For trend strategies, expect the market to oscillate with a slight upward bias. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes US PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profits, and the EU's economic sentiment index [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The installed capacity of solar power and wind power increased significantly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [13] - Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24 [13] - On November 25, the central bank carried out a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan with a net investment of 10 billion yuan [13]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post-war international order during a phone call with US President Trump [1] - The call followed a successful meeting in Busan, where both leaders agreed on many important consensus points, indicating a stable and positive trend in US-China relations [1] - Trump acknowledged the importance of the Taiwan issue to China and expressed agreement with Xi's views on the relationship between the two countries [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on November 25, 2025 [2] Group 3 - The first large-scale dedicated optical quantum computer manufacturing plant in China has officially opened in Shenzhen, covering an area of approximately 5,000 square meters [3] - The plant is capable of producing dozens of dedicated optical quantum computers annually, filling a gap in global large-scale manufacturing in this field [3] Group 4 - The Shenzhen Financial Committee issued a warning about illegal financial activities in the gold trading sector, urging the public to choose legitimate investment channels [4] Group 5 - A second batch of technology innovation bonds supported by risk-sharing tools from the central bank is set to be issued, totaling 930 million yuan [5] Group 6 - Shanghai's government has issued measures to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on key areas such as cell and gene therapy and artificial intelligence medical devices [6] Group 7 - Moore Threads announced an initial online subscription rate of 0.02423369% for its stock issuance, with nearly 4.83 million valid subscription accounts [7] - Industrial Fulian confirmed that it has not lowered its fourth-quarter profit target and is proceeding with production and shipment as planned [7] Group 8 - Huanrui Century reported that its shareholder Qingyou Ruihe sold a total of 7.2585 million shares during a specified period due to judicial enforcement [8] - Zhongji Xuchuang's executive vice president Wang Xiaodong reduced his holdings by 70,860 shares at an average price of 414.24 yuan per share [9] Group 9 - Longpan Technology signed a supplementary agreement with Chuangneng New Energy, increasing the total sales amount to over 45 billion yuan for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [10] Group 10 - Jiangyang Materials' major shareholder reduced his holdings by 190,000 shares during a period of stock price fluctuation, consistent with his reduction plan [11] - Jinbei Automotive signed a strategic framework agreement with JD.com to collaborate in various areas, although the financial impact remains uncertain [12]

Wind统计显示，11月24日，申万31个一级行业中有14个行业获融资净买入，其中，传媒行业获融资净 买入额居首，当日净买入8.47亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有国防军工、交通运输、银行、农林牧 渔、有色金属等。 个股方面，11月24日，有1745只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在3000万元以上的有113股。其中，17 股获融资净买入额超1亿元。蓝色光标获融资净买入额居首，净买入3.93亿元；融资净买入金额居前的 还有寒武纪、天齐锂业、融捷股份、易点天下、张江高科、天海防务、华友钴业、长芯博创等股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market has experienced significant adjustments, with major indices seeing substantial weekly declines, yet there is a notable influx of funds into ETFs, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [2][4]. Fund Flows and Market Trends - During the week of November 17-21, A-shares faced a major downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 3% and the ChiNext Index falling more than 6%, marking the largest single-week decline in months [2][4]. - Despite this downturn, a total of 701.21 billion yuan flowed into stock and cross-border ETFs, with broad index ETFs attracting 359.31 billion yuan, highlighting a strong interest in these investment vehicles [4][5]. - The trend of "buying the dip" is evident, as many investors are taking advantage of the market correction to enter positions in ETFs [5][8]. Sector Preferences - The most favored ETFs during this period include the CSI 500 ETF, STAR 50 ETF, and ChiNext ETF, with net inflows of 64.29 billion yuan, 56.99 billion yuan, and 55.33 billion yuan, respectively [5][8]. - There is a clear shift in fund flows, with significant outflows from high-valuation sectors such as electronics and technology, while sectors like banking and consumer goods are gaining attention due to their relative stability and lower valuations [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the current market environment calls for a balanced investment approach, focusing on undervalued assets and sectors with strong fundamentals, such as AI, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9]. - The recommendation for investors is to diversify their portfolios and consider stocks that have not seen significant price increases, rather than concentrating on high-flying tech stocks [9].

Focus Events - ST Changyuan's chairman Qiao Wenjian has been placed under detention due to suspected job-related violations as announced on November 24 [1] Company News - Multiple listed companies in Henan, including Duofu Duo and Longbai Group, have signed agreements to acquire a total of 10.5% of the unpaid capital of the Henan Aerospace Industry Fund, with the transfer price set at zero [3] - Industrial Fulian clarified that it has not lowered its profit target for the fourth quarter, stating that operations and customer demand remain strong [5] - Longpan Technology announced a significant contract with a total sales amount exceeding 45 billion yuan [16] - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun purchased 2.6 million shares of the company for over 100 million HKD [18] - Jin Guan Electric won a bid for a lightning arrester project from the State Grid worth 32.32 million yuan [20] - Wei Ling Co. announced a potential change in control due to a share transfer, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [22] - Dongfang Zirconium plans to invest 737 million yuan in a zirconium chloride project [22][23] - Fangda Carbon plans to participate in the restructuring of the Shanshan Group to enhance its competitiveness [24] - Zhongshui Fishery reported a significant stock price fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of over 100% in seven trading days [26] Macro News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [7] - Experts predict a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts may be implemented around year-end to support economic growth [8] Industry Dynamics - The Central Air Traffic Control Office has strengthened regulations on low-altitude management systems [10] - China has officially launched an international scientific program in the field of fusion energy, aiming to advance research on "artificial sun" technology [12] - Shanghai's government has issued measures to support the cultivation of major traditional Chinese medicine varieties and the secondary development of classic formulas [14] Project Updates - Guangdong Construction signed a contract for an 18.88 billion yuan energy storage project [26] - Tongji Technology's subsidiary won a bid for a project in Xi'an worth 8.66 billion yuan [25]

Economic Information - China's textile and apparel exports from January to October 2025 totaled $243.95 billion, a decrease of 1.6%. In October alone, exports were $22.26 billion, down 12.6% [2][6] - The Shanghai Cyberspace Administration has launched a special enforcement action to address the misuse of AI technologies, focusing on compliance to support the high-quality development of emerging industries. During this action, 54 apps utilizing generative AI technology were removed from local app stores [2][6] Company Alerts - ST Changyuan's chairman Qiao Wenjian has been detained for suspected job-related violations [4] - Saiwei Electronics' second-largest shareholder, the Big Fund, reduced its stake by 1.07% from September 23 to November 24 [4][6] - Yidian Tianxia's second-largest shareholder, Ningbo Zhongdianyi Enterprise Management Partnership, sold shares during a period of stock volatility [4][6] - Wireless Media's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.70% [4][6] - Huifa Foods' shareholder Hui Xiping intends to reduce his stake by up to 3% [4][6] - Dongfang Ocean's shareholder Guoyuan Fund plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [4][6] - Other companies with shareholders planning to reduce stakes include Dinglong Co., Xinghui Entertainment, Zhongke Information, and others, with reductions ranging from 0.04% to 4.70% [4][6] Overseas Alerts - JPMorgan's commodity research head, Natasha Kaneva, indicated that without intervention, the global oil market will face a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day next year, and 2.7 million barrels per day by 2027. Under these conditions, Brent crude oil prices could drop below $60 per barrel in 2026 and end the year at over $40 per barrel. By 2027, the average price may fall to $42 per barrel, potentially dropping to the $30 range by year-end [3][6] - German Chancellor Merz stated that the U.S. proposed peace plan for Ukraine is unlikely to be finalized by the 27th, with only small-scale progress expected in the coming days [2][3]

市场表现： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天探底回升，三大指数集体收红 | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3836.77 | 0.05% | 1.87 | | | 深证成指 | 12585.08 | 0.37% | 47.01 | | | 沪深 300 | 4448.05 | -0.12% | -5.56 | | | 创业板 | 2929.04 | 0.31% | 8.97 | | | 科创 50 | 1296.60 | 0.84% | 10.77 | | | 北证 50 | 1386.04 | 0.63% | 8.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 4.31% | 石油石 ...

上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 周剑 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525090001 | | | zhoujian64@hnchasing.com | | 2025 年 11 月 25 日 晨会聚焦 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3836.77 | 0.05 | | 深证成指 | 12585.08 | 0.37 | | 创业板指 | 2929.04 | 0.31 | | 科创 50 | 1296.60 | 0.84 | | 北证 50 | 1386.04 | 0.63 | | 沪深 300 | 4448.05 | -0.12 | | 一、财信研究观点 | | --- | | 【市场策略】 ...

Group 1: Digital Economy Development - The 20th China Economic Forum highlighted the rapid development of China's digital economy over the past decade, emphasizing the integration of data elements, artificial intelligence, and the real economy as key drivers for high-quality development [6][7][8] - The forum introduced the "Digital Asset Service Platform Strategic Cooperation Partner Development Plan," showcasing the achievements of mainstream media in digital transformation [7] - Experts noted the importance of overcoming barriers to maximize the multiplier effect of data elements, enhancing industrial efficiency, and accelerating innovation [7][8] Group 2: Marine Economy Insights - The "Towards a Strong Ocean Economy: New Perspectives" forum discussed the high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on technological innovation and comprehensive governance [11][12] - The marine economy has shown continuous growth, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year [11] - Experts emphasized the need for sustainable development in the marine economy, addressing challenges such as resource depletion and environmental pollution [13][14] Group 3: Global Trade and Outbound Strategies - The "Global Economic and Trade New Pattern: Opportunities and Challenges for Going Global" forum focused on the strategies of Chinese enterprises in the context of a rapidly changing global trade landscape [16][17] - In the first three quarters of the year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% [16] - The forum highlighted the shift of Chinese enterprises from merely exporting products to building brands and participating in global value chains [16][17]

Core Insights - The market has established a foundation for a rebound after a week of adjustments, with structural risks significantly alleviated. The concentration of trading volume has decreased to around 40%, below the historical average of 45%, and the proportion of stocks with prices above their 95th historical percentile has dropped to 12%, below the historical average of 15% [2][3] - The technology sector is not expected to weaken completely, as evidenced by the rebound in tech stocks and the ongoing narrative surrounding technological advancements, such as Gemini 3 and Google's TPU, which have drawn attention to Google's supply chain [2][3] - The market currently lacks strong reasons for a significant rebound, primarily due to two prevailing concerns: the instability of the US stock market and the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, which may hinder risk appetite recovery [2][3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.62%, with a total trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.78% [1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 8.571 billion HKD, with Alibaba receiving a net inflow of 4.066 billion HKD, and Tencent and Kuaishou receiving net inflows of 1.167 billion HKD and 819 million HKD, respectively [1] Bond Market - The bond market continues to experience low trading volumes, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds declining to 220 and 972, respectively. The trading activity of 10-year government bonds has been surpassed by 7-year government bonds [4] - The overall performance of 5-7 year government bonds and local government bonds has been better, likely due to institutional behavior. Despite net redemptions in pure bond funds, the redemption pressure is not significant, primarily driven by banks seeking to secure profits as year-end approaches [4][5] Credit Market - As of late November, credit spreads across various types and maturities have compressed to very low levels, with spreads generally within the 25th percentile since 2021. This thin spread protection has led investors to reassess credit pricing, resulting in adjustments in lower-rated bonds [5] - The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern until a new catalyst emerges, with the current environment suggesting that leveraging and coupon payments may be necessary to navigate this "boring period" [5] Commodity Market - The commodity market is showing signs of mild recovery, although significant differentiation between sectors remains. Precious metals have seen reduced declines, while industrial metals have shown mixed performance [6] - The market experienced a small net inflow of 200 million yuan, contrasting with a significant net outflow of 8.5 billion yuan the previous trading day. Agricultural products and black chain indices have attracted substantial capital, while non-ferrous and new energy sectors faced reductions [6]