南露天煤矿位于新疆准东经济技术开发区，除了产量大，这里还是新疆智能化示范煤矿。 南露天煤矿也是近年来新疆煤炭产能大幅增长的缩影。从2019年开始，新疆煤炭潜力开始快速释放。 这一增速还在持续，这条增速折线不断向上的背后，网络支撑是支撑的强劲力量，尤其是5G网络的建 设，让疆煤崛起有了底气、增了实力。 网络向新，戈壁深处架起信息天路 2005年，中国联通新疆分公司网络建设人员首次踏入新疆昌吉五彩湾地区，巧用太阳能、风力设备，建 起一座座铁塔与机房。 随着国家能源战略的实施，准东迎来发展加速度。入驻企业不断增加，原有基站已经无法满足需求。中 国联通以"宁可业务等需求，不可需求等网络"的担当，将网络建设投资和技术人员向准东倾斜。 建设初期，在没有大型机械的帮助下，网络建设者们通过肩挑背扛将笨重的铁塔、太阳能板、蓄电池等 材料组装成型，开通基站，建起了座座铁塔，耸立在荒漠戈壁上。 此后，中国联通不断优化新型基础设施整体布局，通过加强5G、人工智能、工业互联网为代表的新型 基础设施建设，不断夯实数字新疆发展底座。从4G到5G，从单站覆盖到环网保护，建设团队在1700多 公里光缆线路上创造奇迹。如今，276个4G基站与6 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report identifies resilient export products under tariff impacts, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power in the long term, leading to a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [2] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade, and high-dependency products showing weak overseas substitution effects [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to be minimally affected by the recent Middle East tensions, as historical data shows limited impact during such events [3] - The report notes that the share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade is low, indicating a weak direct impact on the domestic economy [3] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - The report discusses the weak demand affecting credit expansion, with May's financial data showing a year-on-year decrease in credit growth, although government bond issuance supports social financing growth at a stable rate of 8.7% [8] - M1 growth rebounded due to a low base, while M2 growth remains stable [8] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand and rising storage prices are expected to boost the semiconductor sector, particularly benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor due to domestic substitution trends [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance in non-volatile storage and FPGA sectors [9] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The report indicates that the transaction area of new homes in 30 core cities remained stable year-on-year, with average prices increasing by 5.6% [10] - Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai show significant price increases, suggesting a stabilization in high-tier cities [10] Group 6: Agricultural Sector - The report highlights a potential recovery in pig prices as inventory levels decrease, with policies driving the industry towards destocking [12] - Long-term profitability is anticipated post-destocking, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology [12] Group 7: Energy Sector - The report notes that seasonal demand for electricity is expected to support stable coal prices, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua [13] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also discussed, with rising oil prices observed [14] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Services - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, predicting net profits of 101 million, 112 million, and 123 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The company is expected to benefit from a competitive landscape in the payment sector [15] Group 9: Telecommunications Sector - The report projects significant growth for Shengyi Technology, driven by AI-related demand, with net profit forecasts of 2.628 billion and 3.280 billion yuan for 2025-2026 [16] - The long-term growth potential of the company is highlighted [16] Group 10: Retail Sector - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating profit margins for Chow Tai Fook, with a forecasted recovery in net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 [17] - The company's transformation strategy is showing positive results, with expectations of increased consumer demand for gold jewelry [17]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）本周110家样本洗煤厂（约占全国洗煤厂焦原煤入洗产能50%）开工率为57.4%，环比-3.2pct，同 比-11.6pct，当前仍处于5年同期低位水平；（2）本周247座高炉产能利用率为90.58%，环比-0.07pct，同 比+1.05pct，日均铁水产量241.54 万吨，环比-0.1%，同比+0.9%；（3）本周28个主要城市平均气温为 29.45 ℃，处于同期中位；（4）本周三峡出库流量为16414 立方米/秒，环比+29.39%，同比+39.95%。 环渤海港煤炭库存继续回落，目前处于同期高位 （1）截至6月13日，秦皇岛港口煤炭库存618 万吨，环比-5.65%，同比+19.31%，处于同期高位水平； （2）截至6月1 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the recent Middle East tensions on asset prices, indicating that the overall effect on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may be limited due to historical trends and low trade exposure to the region [3] - It suggests a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on existing main lines, while in the medium to long term, the duration of the conflict will dictate investment strategies, with a preference for growth if the conflict is short-lived, and resource, transportation, and dividend sectors if prolonged [3] Group 2 - The financial data for May shows a continued year-on-year decline in credit, with corporate medium and long-term loans acting as a stabilizing factor, while short-term loans exhibit a surge [4] - Social financing growth remains stable at 8.7%, supported by increased government bond issuance, while M1 growth rebounds from a low base and M2 growth remains stable [4] Group 3 - The article highlights the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the recent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, which have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 12.8% and 13.0% respectively [5] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of major oil companies and oil service firms in light of these geopolitical tensions [5] Group 4 - The coal mining industry report notes that the rise in oil prices is expected to boost bullish sentiment in the overseas coal market, with Brent crude futures increasing by 7.02% on June 13 and a total weekly increase of 11.67% [6] - It points out the historical correlation between coal, oil, and natural gas prices, suggesting that the rise in oil prices may influence coal prices moving forward [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to benefit from rising international oil prices and a gradual reduction in inventory levels [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to remain stable despite being in a traditional off-peak season, supported by supply constraints and reduced imports [3]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as the peak season approaches, driven by improved steel production and profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - June marks the annual "Safety Production Month" in China, emphasizing safety and emergency preparedness [9]. - Coal transportation from Xinjiang has increased, with a total of 39.4 million tons shipped out, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [9]. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of June 13, thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting little to no change [10][11]. - Coking coal prices have shown slight declines, but the report suggests a potential for stabilization as demand from steel mills increases [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices rose significantly, with a reported increase of $7.76 per barrel, marking an 11.67% rise [17]. - The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential impact on coal pricing dynamics [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have decreased, with coal stock down to 28.688 million tons, a reduction of 63.10% week-on-week [22]. - Domestic shipping costs have declined, with average coastal shipping rates falling by 2.96% [29]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The rise in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, is expected to boost overseas coal market sentiment, necessitating close monitoring of international disturbances on coal prices [1][2]. - Seasonal demand for electricity is anticipated to support stable coal prices as summer peaks approach, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Crude oil prices surged due to military actions in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures rising by 7.02% on June 13 and a total increase of 11.67% for the week [1]. - Historical correlations suggest that rising crude oil prices may positively impact coal prices [1]. Price Trends - The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 609 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week [2]. - The average price for Australian Newcastle port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 66 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.99% [2]. - European natural gas futures settled at 36 EUR/MWh, up by 0.60% [2]. Production and Inventory - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 57.4%, down 3.2 percentage points week-on-week and 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a low level compared to the past five years [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.18 million tons, down 5.65% week-on-week but up 19.31% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming summer electricity demand will support coal prices, recommending companies with stable earnings such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - China Shenhua: EPS 2.95 (2024A), PE 13 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - China Coal Energy: EPS 1.46 (2024A), PE 7 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - Shanxi Coking Coal: EPS 0.55 (2024A), PE 12 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 06 月 15 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（6 月 9 日至 6 月 13 日）港口动力煤现货价环比持平，报收 609 元 /吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 182.46 万吨，环比上周增长 7.81 万吨，增幅 4.47%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有增长。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 189.41 万吨，环比上周减少 2.27 万吨，降幅 1.18%；日均锚地船舶共 75 艘，环比上周增长 7 艘，增幅 10.11%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2868.8 万吨，环比上周下降 63.1 万吨，降幅 2.15%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降，库存绝对值减少， 但绝对值仍处高位，煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [10][11] - The coal supply side is experiencing a contraction, with a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies that exhibit strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends, which are expected to remain attractive investments [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of June 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1250 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while coking coal mines have a utilization rate of 83.71%, down 0.9 percentage points [10][46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 9.50 thousand tons/day (-3.03%) and in coastal provinces by 0.30 thousand tons/day (-0.17%) [10][47] 3. Coal Inventory and Transportation - As of June 12, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 12.60 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 38.50 thousand tons [47] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption is in the early stages of a seasonal increase, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with deep economic moats for long-term investment success, highlighting that many investors confuse short-term advantages with long-term barriers [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Moats - The article categorizes economic moats into six types: brand premium, network effects, scale cost advantages, high user switching costs, core technology barriers, and resource exclusivity [3]. - Brand value is not just about recognition but also about consumers' willingness to pay a premium [3]. - Network effects create a positive feedback loop where the value of a platform increases with more users [3]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Moats - Common misconceptions that can lead to investment risks include: technology leadership that is easily iterated, reliance on a single blockbuster product, short-term traffic benefits, channel advantages under pressure, and over-dependence on management capabilities [3]. - These factors may provide temporary growth but lack structural barriers, making them less reliable for long-term investment [3]. Group 3: Investment Analysis - In dynamic competitive markets, the strength of an economic moat determines investment certainty [3]. - Instead of chasing superficial high-growth data, it is crucial to analyze whether a company possesses pricing power or user lock-in capabilities [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious recommendation for the company [1] Core Views - Shanxi Coking Coal is one of the most influential coking coal producers in China, backed by the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, which is controlled by the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The company is focusing on resource integration and eliminating outdated production capacity to strengthen its leading position in the coking coal industry [3][11] - The company is actively expanding its business in electricity and coke, forming a diversified industrial structure that includes coal, electricity, coke, chemicals, and materials. Despite a decline in sales volume due to market conditions, the company maintains a stable cash flow from its electricity and heat products [4][25] Company Overview - Shanxi Coking Coal has a total market capitalization of 369.01 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 306.1 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 5.677 billion shares, with a 52-week stock price range of 5.97 to 11.43 yuan [3][4] - The company has 17 mines with a coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons, with 16 mines currently in production and one under construction [23][24] Business Operations - The company reported a revenue of 452.90 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.08 billion yuan, down 54.10% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a reversal in the coal market supply-demand dynamics, leading to a significant drop in coal prices [37][45] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.38%, which, while lower than previous years, remains competitive compared to peers in the industry [4][39] Future Outlook - The supply of coking coal is expected to continue to decline, with domestic production decreasing and imports remaining stable. The demand side is currently weak, but government efforts to stabilize the real estate market may lead to a recovery in demand [5][64] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 424.52 billion yuan, 432.59 billion yuan, and 449.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.58, and 0.64 yuan per share [5]