Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel Products**: The steel market is currently trading on weak reality and strong expectations. The real - estate data is still weak, and the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. Strong expectations mainly come from potential supply - side reforms. Technically, the futures prices face resistance after a pulsed rise [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the boost of news. However, in the long - term, the futures price is in a downward cycle. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline, and the relatively high port inventory and trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Background**: The economic data for the second quarter and the first half of 2025 shows that the real - estate industry is still weak. The Central Urban Work Conference did not bring the expected major positive news. The supply - demand data from My Steel shows a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a pulsed rise, the futures prices encounter resistance, with the previous gap and the annual line as resistance levels [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices show certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract is 3114 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar production was 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the social inventory of threaded bars decreasing and the factory inventory increasing slightly [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the spot market decreased, such as the 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume being 18.67 million tons, down 13.38% from the previous day [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which puts pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle, and the recent short - term rise is mainly affected by news, facing resistance from the previous gap and the annual line [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract is 767 yuan/dry ton, up 4.64% from the previous week. Different iron ore powder prices in ports also show various changes [4][5]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment is rising, with Australian shipments at 1569.9 million tons, down 0.97% from the previous week, and Brazilian shipments at 709.9 million tons, up 22.63% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 13765.89 million tons, down 0.81% from the previous week, and the trade ore inventory ratio is relatively high [5]. **III. Industry News** - The price of coke has been raised, with wet - quenched coke prices in Tangshan and Xingtai rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke prices rising by 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Shandong have also raised their coke purchase prices [7]. - The first round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the price of coking coal in some origin auctions has risen significantly. The import Mongolian coal market has high - level quotations with limited transactions. The three major ports have resumed normal customs clearance, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has dropped to 3 million tons [7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货虽环比大增，但矿商发运则是延 续偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in spot prices and futures contracts, while demand shows signs of decline due to maintenance and production restrictions in steel mills [1][2][4][7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 78,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 29.87 million tons, while port arrivals increased by 1.78 million tons to 26.62 million tons [5]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.3981 million tons, down by 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31% [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with an average daily dispatch volume increasing by 2,200 tons week-on-week. As of July 15, port inventory stood at 137.23 million tons, down by 428,000 tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 610,000 tons to 89.80 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a downward trend in July, with average daily molten iron production projected to remain around 2.38 million tons. Despite seasonal demand weakening, strong steel exports are providing some support [7].

2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 98.60 0.30 3.70 纽曼粉 747 0 29 798.7 96.05 -0.75 3.10 -24.43 PB粉 751 1 28 795.4 98.40 -0.60 3.00 -4.63 麦克粉 728 -4 20 795.4 94.40 -0.75 3.00 -7.88 金布巴 718 1 34 808.6 90.55 -0.65 3.05 5.59 主流 混合粉 677 0 19 801.9 86.45 -0.50 2.50 -0.49 超特粉 634 -1 24 844.2 82.45 -0.60 2.05 -4.01 卡粉 855 4 40 796.7 113.30 -1.00 5.10 -19.68 巴西 巴混 785 1 28 797.3 102.10 0.20 4.15 -1.44 主流 巴粗IOC6 726 1 28 796.3 巴粗SSFG 731 1 28 乌克兰精粉 834 0 29 904.5 61%印粉 707 1 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its guidance for Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2025 unchanged [1] Group 1 - The company has reaffirmed its commitment to the 2025 shipment targets for iron ore from the Pilbara region [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

金十数据7月15日讯，周二，力拓(RIO.N)任命铁矿石部门现任主管西蒙•特洛特（Simon Trott）为新任 首席执行官，接替今年5月意外宣布辞职的雅各布•施托斯霍尔姆。特洛特在力拓工作了20年，他在西澳 大利亚州推出了10多年来最大的新铁矿，并正在该州制定一个庞大的替代计划。他还在2018年至2021年 期间担任该矿业公司的首席商务官。特洛特一直面临投资者的抵制，因为在他任职期间，力拓出口的矿 石质量有所下降，而且这家矿商一直难以达到其产量预测的上限。 力拓任命铁矿石主管西蒙·特洛特为首席执行官 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US equities, expecting them to outperform European equities, with a consensus on shorting the dollar [18][20]. Core Insights - The USDCNH is projected to reach 7.10 in the next 2-3 months, driven by recent trends in the US-China trade relationship and currency movements [12][14]. - There is a strong consensus among investors for shorting the dollar, with expectations for EURUSD to end the year in the 1.15 - 1.25 range [24][23]. - The report highlights a rebound in AI-related investments, with 66% of respondents maintaining or increasing their positions in the "Mag 7" stocks [22]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) forecast has been revised upward to 0.68, influenced by urban stimulus speculation in China's property market [29][30]. Summary by Sections Currency and FX Insights - The report notes a significant washout in the Brazilian real (BRL) due to tariff headlines, but the impact on Brazil's economy is expected to be limited as trade with the US represents less than 2% of GDP [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a downside in USDCNH, with recent movements indicating a new YTD low in USDCNY [5][12]. - Hedging costs are at their lowest of the year, suggesting favorable conditions for currency trades [8]. Economic Activity and Forecasts - Industrial production in China is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting improved export growth and manufacturing conditions [45][46]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to rebound to 4.3% year-on-year in June, supported by government bond issuance and construction activity [47][48]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to decline to 4.6% year-on-year in June, indicating potential headwinds for the second half of the year [49][50]. - The GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been slightly upgraded to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while the Q3 forecast has been downgraded to 2.5% [51][52].