受诸多不确定性因素影响，市场风险偏好依然面临不小挑战。 上周美股涨跌互现，美联储在上半年最后一次议息会议上维持今年降息两次的预期，但暗示关税问题影 响并未显现。 受诸多不确定性因素影响，上周美股基金净流出创今年3月以来新高。临近上半年收官，外界将继续密 切关注中东事态发展，同时关注美联储官员对于货币政策前景的观点，市场风险偏好依然面临不小挑 战。 美联储重申谨慎立场 在投资者试图衡量特朗普关税战的影响之际，美国经济指标出现了一些波动。 衡量美国消费品支出的5月零售环比下滑0.9%，低于预期。鉴于前两个月的强劲数据，上月零售额的下 降可能并不令人意外，这可能是由于预期的关税拉动了需求。不包括食品服务、汽车经销商和加油站等 核心零售增长了0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，这反映了经济增长动能依然稳健。 总体而言，到目前为止适用于大多数进入美国的商品10%关税对消费者价格的压力很小。与此同时，劳 动力市场的弹性也比预期更好。亚特兰大联储最新更新的第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）"即时预测"显 示，经济增速从此前的3.5%略下调至3.4%。 道琼斯市场统计显示，板块跌多涨少。医疗保健行业下挫2.7%，通信服务和原材料跌幅也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analyst recommendations play a significant role in influencing stock prices, but their reliability is questionable, particularly for NextEra Energy (NEE) [1][5]. Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - NextEra Energy has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.91, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 22 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 22 recommendations, 13 are classified as Strong Buy, accounting for 59.1% of the total recommendations [2]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Relying solely on ABR for investment decisions may not be wise, as studies indicate limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5]. - Brokerage firms often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [6][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to ABR [8][11]. - Zacks Rank is displayed in whole numbers (1 to 5) and is updated more frequently than ABR, which may not reflect the most current information [9][13]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for NextEra - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NextEra's current year earnings remains unchanged at $3.68, suggesting stable analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [14]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, NextEra holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [15].

| 可选消费ET ... | 212.38 | +1.95 (+0.93%) 30.12万股 | | --- | --- | --- | | us XLY | | | | 网络股指数E ... | 258.03 | 6937股 +2.29 (+0.90%) | | us FDN | | | | 区域银行ET ... | 56.98 | +0.45 (+0.80%) 44.25万股 | | us KRE | | | | 日常消费品E ... | 81.01 | +0.58 (+0.72%) 132.27万股 | | us XLP | | | | 半导体ETF - ... | 264.34 | ↑ +1.75 (+0.67%) 38.86万股 | | us SMH | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 243.21 | +1.60 (+0.66%) 28.45万股 | | us XLK | | | | 全球航空业E ... | 21.76 | +0.13 (+0.60%) 75932股 | | US JETS | | | | 公用事业ET ... | 81.02 | +0.46 (+0.57%) 126.87 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that U.S. stock market investors are surprisingly neglecting traditional safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with analysts warning that unexpected developments in the Israel-Iran conflict could catch the market off guard [1][4] - Despite the anxiety, there has only been a slight inflow of funds into defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare, even as the S&P 500 index is only 2.7% away from its all-time high [1][4] - Defensive sectors' influence on the benchmark index is currently at a 35-year low, indicating that these safer stocks have been overlooked by the market recently [1][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' pair trade basket, which involves going long on cyclical stocks and short on defensive stocks, has seen a slight increase since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear projects, suggesting that if traders were to rush for safety, this basket would decline [3] - UBS data shows that the impact of geopolitical events on the stock market is often short-lived, with the S&P 500 index averaging only a 0.3% decline one week after major geopolitical events, and a 7.7% increase after 12 months [4] - Some market professionals are beginning to recommend increasing exposure to defensive stocks, particularly in the utilities sector, which is seen as a hedge against market volatility and economic risks [7]

证券时报·数据宝统计，今日有3个行业主力资金净流入，28个行业主力资金净流出。资金净流入金额最 大的行业为传媒，涨跌幅-0.48%，整体换手率2.98%，成交量较前一个交易日变动21.70%，主力资金净 流量1.82亿元；今日资金净流出最大的行业为电子，涨跌幅-0.59%，整体换手率2.40%，成交量较前一 个交易日变动-4.55%，主力资金净流量-54.08亿元。（数据宝） 今日各行业主力资金流向一览 | 公用事 | 40.09 | 24.33 | 1.01 | -0.97 | -20.16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业 | | | | | | | 汽车 | 44.08 | 0.98 | 2.03 | -1.47 | -21.05 | | 电力设 | 71.96 | 18.13 | 2.90 | -1.45 | -23.52 | | 备 | | | | | | | 通信 | 33.77 | 15.41 | 1.93 | -0.83 | -24.30 | | 机械设 备 | 70.85 | 17.90 | 2.62 | -1.56 | -25.38 | ...

6月19日，截至港股收盘，恒生指数下跌1.99%，报23237.74点。中国基础能源（08117.HK）收报0.069 港元/股，上涨23.21%，成交量664万股，成交额45.06万港元，振幅48.21%。 最近一个月来，中国基础能源累计涨幅27.27%，今年来累计涨幅19.15%，跑赢恒生指数18.2%的涨幅。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 行业估值方面，公用事业行业市盈率（TTM）平均值为6.33倍，行业中值6.85倍。中国基础能源市盈 率-2.17倍，行业排名第70位；其他滇池水务（03768.HK）为2.17倍、兴泸水务（02281.HK）为3.01倍、 上海实业环境（00807.HK）为3.78倍、康达环保（06136.HK）为3.83倍、首创环境（03989.HK）为4.01 倍。 资料显示，中国基础能源控股有限公司是一家主要从事天然气业务的香港投资控股公司。该公司主要通 过两个业务分部进行运营。制造分部主要从事制造及销售聚乙烯管道,包括水管和气管。能源分部主要 从事天然气运输及分销业务。该公司还通过其子公司从事销售复合物料及向集团公司提供行政服务业 务。 （以上内容为金融界基于公开消息，由程 ...

Group 1 - The current financial asset allocation in Chinese households shows that cash and savings account for over 50%, significantly higher than the OECD average of about 33% [1] - The recent decline in one-year deposit rates below 1% and various monetary easing measures indicate a push towards "deposit migration" and investment in quality equities [1] - There is a strong preference for dividend assets among various funds, including risk-averse capital, income-focused investors, insurance funds, and state-owned enterprises, which are continuously buying into dividend assets [1] Group 2 - Dividend assets are primarily concentrated in industries with abundant cash flow, such as banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation, which consistently yield cash dividends [2] - The cumulative dividend payout of the CSI Dividend Index constituents is expected to exceed 920 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 36.25%, indicating a commitment to returning profits to shareholders [2] - The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has distributed dividends 13 times since its inception, with a dividend of 0.15 yuan per ten shares on the upcoming distribution date, reflecting a dividend rate of 0.99% [2] Group 3 - The CSI Dividend Index has demonstrated a 10-year annualized return of 5.63%, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and 10-year government bonds, showcasing the power of dividend compounding [3] - The "National Nine Articles" policy encourages listed companies to enhance dividend payouts, particularly state-owned enterprises, which will systematically strengthen the "blood supply" of dividend assets [2] - Long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds favor high-dividend assets, providing additional support for the CSI Dividend ETF [2]

01 大盘 昨夜美股三大股指持续震荡。截至收盘，道指跌 0.1%，纳指涨 0.13%，标普跌 0.03%。恐慌指数VIX跌 6.67%至20.14。美元指数昨日涨 0.05%，报98.89。美国十年国债收益率涨0.046%，收报4.394%，相较 两年期国债收益率差44.8个基点。现货黄金昨日跌 0.57%，报3369.22美元/盎司。布伦特原油收跌0.86% 至76.26。 顶着"太迟先生"的骂名，鲍威尔连续第四次按兵不动。点阵图仍暗示今年降息两次，市场聚焦9月的行 动窗口。 02 行业&个股 行业板块方面，除半导体、公用事业、房地产、科技和通讯分别收涨0.41%、0.26%、0.19%、0.12%和 0.05%外，标普其他5大板块悉数收跌：能源、原料、工业、原料和日常消费分别收跌0.65%、0.29%、 0.24%、0.17%和0.12%。 中概股多数收跌，台积电跌 0.19%，阿里跌 1.34%，拼多多跌 0.27%，京东跌 2.02%，理想跌 1.93%， 小鹏涨 0.22%， 富途涨 0.39%，蔚来跌 0.58%。 大型科技股涨跌互现。微软涨 0.46%，微软宣布与AMD达成多年期合作协议，双方将 ...

年 6 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 零售和工业走弱，联储将保持观望 美国 5 月零售超预期下跌，汽车、建筑材料、电子、家电等耐用品零售和餐饮 服务消费明显放缓，运动休闲商品、服装、日用品和网购等有所回升。工业产 出延续放缓，公用事业增速高位回落，制造业小幅反弹。由于中东冲突推升油 价和关税影响部分商品价格，第三季度美国通胀可能反弹，但经济可能延续放 缓，美联储面临去通胀和保就业的两难，预计 6 月和 7 月将保持利率不变。第 三季度后，美国通胀可能见顶回落，就业市场走弱，美联储可能在 9 月降息一 次，11 月或 12 月再降息一次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 同比(%, 2021/2022年为2/3年平均，3M MA ...

盘面回顾：全天窄幅震荡，领涨板块创新药和银行均出现调整。周二 A 股的明显变化，是此前领 涨市场的创新药和银行板块出现明显调整，在连续上涨后遇阻回落。取而代之的是煤炭、公用事业、石 油石化等高股息红利方向领涨，防御型品种内部实现高低切换。大盘全天窄幅震荡，沪指收盘依然站在 20 日均线之上，交易量相比周一小幅萎缩。板块表现涨跌互现，上涨个股数量超过 2200 家，市场依然 有着不错的赚钱效应。领涨板块分别是煤炭、公用事业、石油石化、交通运输、商贸零售等，多为前期 滞涨的防御型板块；领跌板块包括医药、美容护理、传媒、纺织服饰、轻工等。 风险提示：关税预期的反复摇摆，关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期， 国内经济复苏不及预期，政策执行不及预期等。 东局势紧张并未影响 A 股走势，大盘仍然在犹豫中缓慢前行。本周初中东局势的紧张令市场情绪 较为紧张，但实际影响比较影响，A 股并未受到该事件的影响，继续延续窄幅震荡的格局。近期市场对 于贸易冲突的担忧情绪进一步缓解，市场在震荡中维持缓慢盘升的格局，均线慢慢开始发散。6 月上中 旬贸易谈判和关税事件窗口已经慢慢过去，即将迎来 6 月中下旬的政策窗口期， ...