- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the observation of industry diffusion indices; Detailed Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in diffusion indices for various industries, ranking them based on their performance. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Advancing Stocks}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[6][14][27] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Detailed Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factor scores, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model has achieved substantial excess returns by capturing trading information, though it has faced challenges in certain market conditions[7][14][34] Model Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.72%, Excess Return: 0.11%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -2.26%[32] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 1.07%, Excess Return: 0.44%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -3.71%[37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed using GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level trading data; Detailed Construction Process: The factor scores are calculated based on the GRU network's output, which evaluates the trading data to rank industries. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant improvements in certain industries, indicating its effectiveness in capturing trading information[7][14][35] Factor Backtest Results - GRU Industry Factor, Top Industries: Automotive (2.84), Steel (1.85), Media (1.48), Power Equipment and New Energy (1.35), Communication (0.88), Coal (0.66)[7][14][35]

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 19 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 关税缓和背景下关注轻工出口链修复机会 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（5 月第 3 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 1) 上周（5/12-5/16）大消费板块表现分化。美容护理、商 ...

□本报记者王雪青 "消费投资正在经历变革。"中金基金权益部基金经理高大亮在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，随着潮 玩IP、宠物经济等"情绪消费"崛起，硬折扣、量贩零食等新销售模式改变了渠道生态，消费投资的底层 逻辑正在经历深刻重构。 今年以来，新消费赛道崛起，港股市场中的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等表现亮眼；A股市场中的 食品零售、宠物经济、美妆个护等具有新消费特征的公司持续受到资金追捧。 "港股市场消费股的强势上涨打开了A股市场新消费标的的估值空间。"在高大亮看来，消费板块的投资 逻辑已从传统的"白马为王"转向"新消费突围"。当下，情绪价值与渠道效率成为把握板块结构性投资机 会的关键。未来，消费企业对新渠道、新品类、新需求的前瞻布局，或成为基金经理捕捉超额收益的关 键因素。 回顾近年消费市场的主要变化，高大亮表示："最大的变化是服务型消费占比逐步提高。以新产品、新 业态、新技术、新服务为代表的四大类型新消费迅速崛起。" 四大类新消费究竟是什么？据介绍，新产品有盲盒、潮玩等；新业态有硬折扣超市、城市奥莱、会员店 等；新技术指的是技术进步带来全新消费产品，典型如人工智能(AI)浪潮下的自动驾驶、智能穿戴、机 器 ...

港股与 A 股在财报披露方面存在两大主要差异。首先，港股公司的财年不统一， 公司可以自主选择财年的起始日期，例如 1 月 1 日、4 月 1 日、6 月 1 日等， 这与美股类似。其次，部分港股公司只披露半年报和年报，而季报并非强制要 • 港股龙头企业集中度高，对业绩分析产生显著影响。个别龙头企业如腾讯 对港股通利润贡献巨大，而万科则产生负向影响，分析时需考虑龙头企业 对行业利润的贡献度。 • 2025 年一季度公募基金明显加仓商贸零售（阿里巴巴）、电子（中芯国 际、小米）、传媒（腾讯）、医药、有色金属（紫金矿业）等行业，显示 出机构投资者对这些行业的看好，或预示着相关行业的投资机会。 求，仅有部分公司如 AH 两地上市公司及一些互联网公司会选择每个季度披露 季报。例如腾讯和阿里巴巴等互联网公司会定期发布季报，但消费类公司如周 大福则仅披露年报和半年报。因此，在进行业绩分析时，需要对齐不同公司的 财务数据，以便准确反映行业整体情况。 港股行业比较之业绩分析有哪些"坑"20250515 摘要 • 南向资金对港股的配置比例显著提升，2024 年四季度至 2025 年一季度 增加近五个百分点，显示出对港股重视程度的 ...

Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]

2025 年 05 月 17 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期继续震荡偏强，科技仍是主线 定期报告 投资要点 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 2025.5.7 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 2025.5.5 新股板块震荡难掩局部积极信号，临近休整 尾端关注逐步变盘可能-华金证券新股周报 2025.5.5 加仓汽车、化工、地产，减仓军工、交运 2025.4.30 部 分 周 期 和 消 费 行 业 一 季 报 可 能 偏 好 2025.4.29 定期报告 市场对分子端的担忧可能过于悲观。（1）大幅降低关税可能改善短期经济增长预 期。一是复盘 2018 至 2019 年 4 次中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，可以看到贸易摩擦 缓和有利于改善出口，但 A 股表现更多受国内经济基本面和政策、外部事件等影响。 二是本次超预期的降低关税将大幅改善经济基 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant differentiation last week (May 12 to May 16), with large-cap stocks performing well while small-cap and Sci-Tech Innovation Board faced slight pressure. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose by 1.22% and 1.12% respectively, indicating the defensive advantage of undervalued blue-chip stocks. The ChiNext 50 increased by 2.00%, reflecting the attractiveness of large-cap growth sectors. Conversely, the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.10%, possibly due to underwhelming earnings from some semiconductor companies and capital diversion to other tech sectors [2][12]. Industry Performance - Last week, 65% of sectors achieved positive returns, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors performing relatively well, rising by 3.08%, 2.49%, and 2.40% respectively. In contrast, media, defense, and computer sectors showed significant weakness, declining by 0.77%, 1.18%, and 1.26% respectively [2][14]. Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 12 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 24.004 billion units [2][20]. Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index rose by 0.17% last week. The ordinary equity fund index increased by 0.26%, while the mixed equity fund index rose by 0.30%. The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [3][10]. Global Asset Review - Global markets exhibited significant divergence last week, with equity markets generally rising, driven by technology stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 4.54% and 6.60% respectively, propelled by better-than-expected earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia. European markets also showed resilience, with the German DAX and French CAC both rising over 0.8%, reflecting enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone. The Hang Seng Index in the Asia-Pacific region rose by 2.09%, influenced by positive signals from US-China trade talks [5][6]. Domestic Bond Market Review - Last week, the 10-year and 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.51% and 1.17% respectively, indicating upward pressure on yields. The short-term funding spread (R007-DR007) showed no significant compression compared to the previous week, while medium to long-term rates remained low [15][19].

Core Insights - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal significant fluctuations in A-share performance, with a notable recovery in net profit growth in Q1 2025 after a substantial decline in 2024 [2][6][26] Group 1: Financial Performance Analysis - The net profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 was 3.31%, a recovery from a -13.36% decline in 2024 [2][5] - The increase in net profit in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by operating income, which contributed 212.33 billion yuan, and financial investment income, which added 114.01 billion yuan [2][5] - The significant drop in net profit in Q4 2024 was mainly due to a sharp decline in operating income, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [3][5] Group 2: Impacts of Impairment Losses - The 2024 annual report indicated a substantial increase in asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses, which significantly pressured net profit [6][9] - Key industries affected by impairment losses included non-ferrous metals, retail, machinery, transportation, and communications [9] Group 3: Value Changes and Government Subsidies - In Q1 2025, fair value changes in financial investments saw a significant increase, contributing to net profit growth [11][14] - Government subsidies related to daily business activities increased, particularly in sectors like real estate, social services, and public infrastructure, with "other income" reaching 889.59 billion yuan [16] Group 4: Industry Performance and Cash Flow - Industries showing significant improvement in operating income in Q1 2025 included steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery, with some sectors like agriculture and construction materials also reporting high growth rates [18][19] - Adjusted operating cash flow metrics indicate potential for improved cash generation in sectors such as agriculture, electronics, and household appliances [20][21] Group 5: Strategic Expansion Trends - Strategic expansion activities, including internal capacity expansion and external acquisitions, accelerated in Q1 2025, particularly in the automotive, household appliances, and coal industries [24][25] Group 6: Free Cash Flow and Stakeholder Returns - The ability of companies to generate free cash flow to meet stakeholder demands reached historical highs, with 13.70% of non-financial A-share companies able to cover their obligations [26][27]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.52%，A股成交量588.52亿股，成交金额6869.08亿 元，比上一个交易日减少10.25%。个股方面，3300只个股上涨，其中涨停50只，1898只个股下跌，其 中跌停8只。从申万行业来看，汽车、机械设备、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.96%、1.26%、 0.53%；银行、非银金融、美容护理等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.41%、1.39%、1.28%。（数据宝） | 石油石化 | | | | 茂化实华 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | -1.28 | 74.02 | -13.95 | 芭薇股份 | -12.69 | | 非银金融 | -1.39 | 219.05 | -41.78 | 拉卡拉 | -2.38 | | 银行 | -1.41 | 157.97 | -5.57 | 西安银行 | -2.39 | 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | ...

| 汽车 | 865.97 | -1.96 | -0.23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 934.52 | -2.09 | -0.22 | | 公用事业 | 423.34 | -2.28 | -0.54 | | 电力设备 | 1262.27 | -3.47 | -0.27 | | 计算机 | 1369.11 | -7.89 | -0.57 | | 非银金融 | 1555.22 | -8.19 | -0.52 | | 电子 | 2128.95 | -9.30 | -0.43 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 以幅度进行统计，交通运输行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为338.74亿元，环比增长0.74%，其 次是美容护理、房地产、煤炭行业，环比增幅分别为0.72%、0.50%、0.38%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有家用电器、计算机、公用事业等，最新融资余额分别有252.32亿元、1369.11亿元、423.34亿元， 分别下降0.71%、0.57%、0.54%。（数据宝） 5月15日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额 ...