转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月22日电 中信证券研报分析认为，推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开 始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。 从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因素。然而，部分行业在持 续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来 看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过 快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。 编辑：林郑宏 行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化 驱动三条线索。基于2023年的国民经济投入产出表数据对211个细分行业进行了人民币升值背景下的成 本收入分析，受益于人民币升值的行业大概可以分为四类：1）上游资源品和原材料，包括：钢铁、有 色、石油石化（炼化）、基础化工（化肥、涂料、化纤、塑料等）、建材（耐火材料）、电子（半导体 材料）；2）内需消费品，主要包括：农林牧渔（饲料、植物油、糖）、轻工制造（造纸、纸制品）、 消费电子等；3）服务 ...

廖市无双：中线进攻信号何时才会出现？20251221 摘要 上证指数在 3,920-3,950 点区间遇阻，短期反弹受限，中线胜负未分， 预计维持区间震荡，难现断崖式下跌或主升浪行情。 消费板块回暖，海南封关消息利好商贸零售和消费者服务，非银金融亦 上涨；科技板块如电芯、电子机械、通信和计算机延续四季度弱势。 市场已调整 6-8 周，虽未结束但结构渐清晰，预计 12 月和 1 月盘整后， 2 月或迎新机会，未来 5 周震荡后有望进入主升段，但震荡上行概率更 高。 恒生科技指数已回吐 55%-60%涨幅，在 5,360 点附近止跌，MACD 底 背离显示反弹迹象，科创 50 指数调整 11 周，若跌至 1,269 点附近或是 买入时机。 券商板块蓄势待发，充分震荡后主升浪更稳健。若光模块带动市场，券 商拉出长阳线，短期或有向上机会，但概率较低。 春季攻势或提前启动，若券商迅速上涨 5%且光模块同步上行，顶点可 能在春节前后，但高度有限。券商回踩年线耐心调整，后续行情更持久。 券商板块仍值得关注，家电板块短期胜率较高。长期关注消费、医药及 AI 应用。消费领域关注海南概念，医药关注港股创新药。 目前市场已经经历了 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that most primary industry sectors have shown upward movement, but the growth is generally moderate, with retail, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services leading the gains due to the increasing importance of domestic demand strategies and related policy expectations [1] - The retail, beauty care, and social service sectors have performed well as a result of the sustained emphasis on domestic demand, while the non-bank financial sector has been boosted by the recovery in brokerage and insurance sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery have experienced the largest declines, attributed to profit-taking in the electric equipment sector and a lack of catalysts in the machinery sector [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, defensive low-yield dividend sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals are recommended for short-term positioning, while non-bank financials should be considered for adjustments to capture market beta opportunities [2] - There is potential for a recovery in cyclical sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods, driven by policy expectations [2] - Growth-oriented sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI and semiconductors, should focus on leading companies with strong earnings certainty, as well as sectors like embodied intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals that may see progress next year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks and rose, with an increase in valuation [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.42%; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.29%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.77 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 192.56 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 119.54 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.14 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 55.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58pct; the largest change occurred in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 9.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5pct; there was 1 bond with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 131.51 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14pct; the overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10pct [2]. Industry Performance - On December 19, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising. In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three industries in terms of decline were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 23 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.53% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.49%, the technology sector increased by 0.21%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.46%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.5pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased by 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.65% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.69%, the technology sector increased by 0.99%, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.19%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.47% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.1pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.75pct, the technology sector increased by 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79pct [4].

文章转自2025年05月21日太平洋 金融工程团队 报告 ，分析师： 刘晓锋 /孙弋轩 报告从标的回撤规律的角度着手，使用迭代方法筛选出可适用的行业，并通过设置合理的入场阈值给定了高质量的左侧买点，以此给出了各个行业在回调阶段的配置 区间建议，奠定了太平洋金工团队后续模型改进的基础，并可作为基准对于后续模型效果作出评估。 正文报告 01 行业指数VS沪深300 沪深300由不同行业的个股组成，考虑自上而下的选股模式，考察时间区间（2010年1月至2025年3月）内的各行业回报率： 31个行业中有17个行业回报率超过了沪深 300。 综合行业指数相对沪深300的净值以及相应的回撤信息，我们可以总结以下三点： 02 偏离修复策略 行业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景一）： 1、在行业层面，选择行业构建组合具有较大概率获取超收益，以简单平均配置为例，可以在区间内获得34%的超额回报； 2、买入并持有单行业相对于沪深300的，可能会产生了较大的回撤，以及较长的回撤时间，存在择时必要性； 3、趋势跟踪已经在前期报告做过阐述，考虑到该策略过程中无法提供空间信息，因此本文考虑空间方面的策略。 业指数相对沪深300的偏离（情景 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

- The report discusses the "Industry Trend Allocation Model" which indicates that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue to show an upward trend[2][5][7] - The "Two Beta Model" is recommended for the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and commercial space[2][5][7] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals attention to retail and tourism service consumption[2][5][7] Model Construction and Evaluation - **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: This model identifies sectors with upward trends based on historical data and current market conditions. It uses various indicators to determine the sectors that are likely to perform well in the near future[2][5][7] - **Two Beta Model**: This model focuses on sectors with high growth potential, particularly in technology. It evaluates the beta coefficients of different sectors to identify those with higher expected returns relative to the market[2][5][7] - **Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model**: This model identifies sectors that are expected to recover from a period of underperformance. It uses historical performance data and current market signals to predict which sectors will experience a turnaround[2][5][7] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: The model continues to show an upward trend in the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors[2][5][7] - **Two Beta Model**: The model recommends the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and commercial space, indicating strong growth potential[2][5][7] - **Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model**: The model signals attention to retail and tourism service consumption, suggesting these sectors are poised for recovery[2][5][7]

Market Outlook - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is brewing, with signals indicating that it has already begun. Key factors include the expected acceleration of central budget investments and significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, providing stable incremental funds to the market [2][36][38] - The main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors such as industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation [2][36][38] Economic Indicators - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales narrowed, with a total of 456,067 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%. The retail sales excluding automobiles reached 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [43][57] - Major enterprises in the machinery sector showed improvement in sales, with loader sales increasing by 32.1% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and road rollers also showing significant growth [49][51] Investment Trends - The A500 ETF has seen substantial net subscriptions, with a single-day subscription amount reaching a historical high of 7.1 billion yuan, indicating that significant institutional investors are entering the capital market through this product [13][36] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has been strengthening, suggesting that overseas funds are beginning to flow into the domestic market, which is often associated with expectations of positive changes in domestic policies [15][16][36] Sector Performance - The retail sector has been supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with notable growth in the commercial retail sector driven by holiday consumption expectations [40] - The technology sector, particularly AI, remains a strong growth engine for the economy, with Hong Kong stocks showing high investment value in technology companies that are not present in A-shares [29][38] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with large-cap value stocks outperforming small-cap stocks as investors become more conservative due to year-end performance assessments [31][39] - The upcoming earnings forecast disclosure period in January is expected to increase pressure on small-cap stocks, while large-cap blue-chip stocks are likely to attract more investment due to their stability [33][36]

来源：策略李立峰与行业配置笔记 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资要点 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨；成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨 8.7%，铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人 民币对美元则延续升值态势。 市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需 满足以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产 业事件催化或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易 逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市 亦可以期待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模 ...