2025 年 10 月 15 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251015 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数全数上涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.22%， 收报 3912.21 点；深证成指涨 1.73%，收报 13118.75 点；创业板指涨 2.36%， 收报 3025.87 点；科创 50 涨 1.40%，收报 1430.00 点。总体上全天个股涨多 跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4332 只个股上涨，944 只个股下跌，153 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 20729 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 5034 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，31 个行业中钢铁和石油石化行 业下跌，跌幅为 0.21%和 0.14%，电力设备、汽车、电子、医药生物和商贸零 售行业领涨，涨幅分别为 2.72%、2.37%、2.29%、2.08%、1.92%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为航空运输、充电桩、CRO、营销传播、 汽车零部件、特 ...

Core Points - The company has launched a new initiative to facilitate vehicle scrapping at its service stations in Hangzhou, significantly reducing the time and effort required for car owners [1][2] - This initiative is part of the company's commitment to green development and enhancing customer convenience, aligning with the needs of the local community [2] Group 1 - The company has established "vehicle scrapping convenience handover points" at 102 service stations in Hangzhou, addressing the common pain points of car owners regarding the scrapping process [1] - The new service allows car owners to complete the scrapping process without visiting the vehicle management office or dismantling companies, thus saving time and ensuring information security [1] - The process includes assistance with vehicle information verification, document collection, towing, scrapping procedures, and issuance of cancellation certificates, making it a comprehensive service [1] Group 2 - The initiative reflects the company's focus on "people's needs" and its responsibility towards "convenience for the public" and "green development" [2] - The company plans to continuously optimize service details based on feedback from car owners to provide more convenient and standardized vehicle scrapping solutions [2]

Core Insights - A-shares opened higher on October 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.29% [1] - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index experienced a slight increase of approximately 0.25%, with leading stocks including Qin'an Co., Shenhuo Co., and Jihong Co. [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index's upward trend, highlighting the value of strategic positioning [1] Industry Trends - According to a report from Zheshang Securities, there are clear signs of a resurgence in the financial and cyclical sectors, while the technology sector has weakened [1] - External news influences suggest that the market may be shifting focus towards large financials, cyclical stocks, and dividend-paying stocks [1] Investment Strategy - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, oil and petrochemicals, and power equipment, which are characterized by high barriers to entry [1] - The ETF's diversified industry coverage effectively mitigates risks associated with single industry volatility, making it a favorable choice for core portfolio allocation [1] - The fund management annual fee is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market [1]

Group 1: Economic Impact on Wealth - The overall wealth of Indian billionaires shrank by 9% in 2025, with a total loss of $100 billion, bringing the total wealth below $1 trillion [1] - The economic downturn is attributed to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which has significantly impacted the competitiveness of Indian export companies [20] Group 2: Individual Billionaire Performance - Mukesh Ambani, the richest man in India, saw his wealth decrease by 12%, losing $14.5 billion, yet he remains at the top with a net worth of $105 billion [3][5] - Gautam Adani's wealth fell from $116 billion to $92 billion, facing challenges from a short-selling report that led to a $65 billion drop in market value [13] - Sunil Mittal, founder of Bharti Enterprises, experienced a wealth increase of $3.5 billion, moving up in the rankings due to the acquisition of a significant stake in British Telecom [16][19] Group 3: Government Response and Market Conditions - The Indian government reduced the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in September 2025 to stimulate consumption, but the depreciation of the rupee and a declining stock market hindered recovery efforts [18] - The Sensex index of the Bombay Stock Exchange fell by 3%, contributing to the wealth decline of many billionaires [18] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - Some billionaires are adapting and finding growth opportunities, such as Sunil Mittal's overseas expansion, which has proven beneficial [19] - New emerging companies like Waaree Energies and Dixon Technologies are showcasing the growth potential of India's new economy, while traditional industries are also adapting to modern challenges [21]

Core Viewpoint - Karamay, a resource-based city in Xinjiang, is transitioning from a traditional oil economy to a diversified modern industrial system, focusing on green energy and technology to achieve sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Transition to Green Energy - Karamay is shifting from black oil to green computing, aiming to develop a modern industrial system that includes oil and gas, green computing, new energy, and cultural tourism [1][2]. - The city produced 14.86 million tons of crude oil and 4.51 billion cubic meters of natural gas last year, with a target to exceed 20 million tons of oil equivalent this year [2]. - Karamay has established six large data centers, positioning itself as a leader in computing power in the northwest region of China [2]. Group 2: Artificial Intelligence and Innovation - The first AI application competition in Karamay led to the signing of six key projects across various sectors, marking significant progress in the development of the green computing industry [3][4]. - Karamay is focusing on integrating AI with various industries to create demonstration application scenarios, enhancing the local innovation environment [4]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Development - Karamay has seen a 1.6 times increase in new energy installed capacity and a threefold increase in renewable energy generation [6]. - The city is developing a comprehensive hydrogen energy industry chain, focusing on green hydrogen applications in various sectors [7]. - Karamay aims to build a million-kilowatt-level renewable energy base, leveraging its abundant wind and solar resources [8]. Group 4: Equipment Manufacturing and Industrial Upgrading - Karamay is enhancing its oil equipment manufacturing capabilities, transitioning from simple manufacturing to a complete equipment production base [9]. - The city has registered 97 equipment manufacturing enterprises, focusing on oil extraction and related technologies [9]. - The seventh China (Karamay) International Oil and Gas Technology Equipment Exhibition showcased 416 companies, highlighting the integration of traditional energy and emerging sectors [10]. Group 5: Cultural and Tourism Development - Karamay is promoting tourism through cultural events, with visitor numbers increasing from 11.2 million in 2021 to 23.25 million in 2024, averaging a 22% annual growth [12]. - The city is developing unique tourism experiences, including themed events and educational tourism, to attract visitors and enhance cultural engagement [13][15]. - Karamay is leveraging its oil heritage to create tourism products that reflect its industrial history, enhancing its appeal as a tourist destination [14].

信用利差方面，9月资金面边际收敛，信用利差整体延续窄幅震荡。与去年同期相比，收窄26.29bp，而 较上月末微降0.19bp。 从行业利差中位数的排序来看，截至9月30日，家用电器、房地产、电力设备、社会服务和计算机行业 利差处于高位，分别为137.73bp、97.18bp、87.89bp、84.69bp和84.44bp；食品饮料、传媒、公用事业、 石油石化和交通运输行业利差处于低位，分别为43.57bp、43.66bp、45.61bp、46.78bp和47.43bp。 环比观察，作为消费类行业的代表，家用电器与社会服务行业景气度与居民收入预期和消费意愿高度相 关。在当前宏观经济环境下，消费复苏的路径尚不稳定，导致这两个行业的风险溢价波动较大。其中， 受益于新一轮的消费刺激政策，家用电器行业利差本月下行幅度最大但整体水平仍处于高位。 城投债方面，整体信用利差环比基本持平。从区域表现来看，除甘肃省外，其余地区的城投债利差环比 小幅走阔或收窄。贵州、云南和辽宁等省份的城投债利差年内收窄幅度居前，均超过100bp，与化债政 策持续推进和市场信心改善有关。然而，甘肃省城投债利差月末大幅走阔，表明投资者对该区域城投债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade disputes, but the long-term outlook remains positive as the industry adapts and improves its competitive capabilities [1]. Industry Summary - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index has seen a decline of approximately 1.7%, with leading stocks including Sankeshu, Yara International, and Salt Lake Co. [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) is following the index's adjustments, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1]. - Despite the negative short-term impacts of trade disputes, the long-term trend for the petrochemical and chemical industry is improving, supported by the experience gained from previous trade conflicts [1]. - The industry has rapidly enhanced its capabilities over the past few years, which may lead to a new high-quality development cycle as policies adjust to counteract previous downturns [1]. ETF and Sector Composition - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index [1]. - The basic chemical industry accounts for 61.93% of the index, while the oil and petrochemical sector represents 30.84% [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Co., Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Zangge Mining, Jinfa Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively accounting for 55.12% of the index [1].

招商证券认为，自由现金流是红利分配的上游指标，具有较强的前瞻性，是一种值得长期坚持的策 略风格。以历史自由现金流水平筛选出的公司，其未来实际分红能力甚至优于历史高分红的公司。此 外，高自由现金流且分红意愿强的公司股价表现更优，即在自由现金流策略中引入红利因子，可进一步 提升策略表现。 自由现金流ETF（159201）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的行业龙头，行业覆盖有色金属、汽车、石 油石化、电力设备等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避单一行业波动风险，是底仓配置的有利选 择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 兴业证券全球首席策略分析师表示，2025年外部环境波动复杂多变、风高浪急，但外因只是次要因 素、是扰动项、是噪音，真正推动中国资本市场开启新周期的，是经济增长方式的系统性调整。短期中 国股市若因海外风险而下跌，将是"黄金坑"。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun ...

Group 1 - On October 13, a total of 9 companies were investigated by institutions, with 6 companies being surveyed by funds, indicating a strong interest in these firms [1] - LiuGong was the most popular among the surveyed companies, with 15 funds participating in its investigation, while QingNiao Fire and KeLu Electronics attracted 4 and 2 funds respectively [1] - Among the surveyed companies, 4 were from the Shenzhen Main Board and 2 from the ChiNext Board, highlighting the diversity in market segments [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the surveyed A-share companies included 2 firms with a market value of less than 10 billion yuan, specifically Anli Co. and Baoli International [2] - In terms of market performance over the past 5 days, 3 stocks among the surveyed companies saw an increase, with KeLu Electronics leading at a rise of 7.49%, followed by LiuGong at 1.97% and Baoli International at 0.46% [2] - Conversely, 2 stocks experienced declines, with QingNiao Fire and Anli Co. showing decreases of 1.88% and 1.30% respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Views - The Israeli government's approval of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has led to a continued decline in oil prices, with WTI crude futures dropping by 4.15% and Brent crude by 3.53% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the U.S. halting diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and potential military escalations, which could disrupt Venezuelan oil supplies [6]. - OPEC+ plans a cautious production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November 2025, but Russia advocates for maintaining current production levels to avoid downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - The EIA has raised its short-term price forecasts for WTI to $65 per barrel and Brent to $68.64 per barrel, while also slightly increasing U.S. oil production expectations to 13.53 million barrels per day [6]. - The report highlights a tightening supply in the fluorochemical sector, with prices for popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a remaining stable at high levels due to production constraints and increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, noting a significant drop in both WTI and Brent crude prices following the ceasefire agreement [6]. - It tracks OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. oil production forecasts, indicating a cautious approach to increasing supply amidst fluctuating demand [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a tight supply for popular refrigerants, with stable high prices due to production limitations and recovering demand in the domestic market [6]. - The report notes a projected increase in production for household air conditioners and automotive refrigerants, driven by government incentives [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly on companies with resilient earnings such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it recommends companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook due to inventory reduction trends and domestic substitution [7].