Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market maintained strong performance with a slight increase in open interest. Favorable domestic and overseas macro - factors, such as rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar index, along with a decline in Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory, may keep copper prices strong [5]. - The Shanghai aluminum market oscillated upward with a slight decrease in open interest. Although the domestic market atmosphere was favorable, the downstream off - season led to inventory accumulation, and it is expected that the futures price will show a moderately strong oscillation [6]. - The nickel price oscillated upward with little change in open interest, and the main futures price broke through the 122,000 - yuan mark. Supported by the improved domestic macro - environment and stable nickel ore operations with rising port inventories, the nickel price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 11, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 210 tons compared to August 4 and 110 tons compared to August 7 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 571,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 4 and 22,000 tons compared to August 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 11, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2509 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton with a price of 124,160 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton with a price of 122,460 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton with a price of 125,160 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton with a price of 124,510 yuan/ton [11]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warrant inventory, etc. [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts involve aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, alumina inventory, etc. [35][31][27] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [38][44][40]

Group 1 - As of 20:30, New York gold futures fell by 2.53% [1] - New York silver futures decreased by 2.24% [1] - New York copper futures declined by 0.58% [1]

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London nickel increased by 1.44% [1] - London copper decreased by 0.49% [1] - London lead fell by 0.20% [1] - London zinc dropped by 0.68% [1] - London aluminum declined by 0.84% [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by hopes of interest rate cuts in the US and positive economic data from China [1][3] - As of August 8, LME three-month copper increased by $77.5, or 0.8%, closing at $9,762.0 per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 1.4% for the week [1][2] - The US dollar weakened following President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, which bolstered expectations for rate cuts and made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers [3] Group 2 - China's trade data showed a total import and export value of 3.91 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the highest growth rate this year [3] - For the first seven months of the year, China's total trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - COMEX September copper contracts rose by 1.99% to $4.4860 per pound, or $9,890 per ton, resulting in a premium of approximately $128 per ton over LME copper [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the overall increase in metal futures prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME), with nickel leading the gains [1] - Nickel futures rose by $311, reaching $15,290 per ton, marking the highest increase in the market [1] - Copper futures increased by $70, closing at $9,700 per ton, while aluminum rose by $11 to $2,608 per ton [1] - Zinc futures saw a rise of $34, ending at $2,777 per ton, whereas lead futures decreased by $12, settling at $2,044 per ton [1] - Tin futures experienced a significant increase of $276, reaching $33,559 per ton, while cobalt prices remained stable at $33,335 per ton [1]

LME金属期货收盘涨跌不一，LME期铜收涨26美元，报9646美元/吨。LME期铝收跌12美元，报 2580美元/吨。LME期锌收跌33美元，报2697美元/吨。LME期铅收跌7美元，报1996美元/吨。LME期镍 收涨82美元，报15146美元/吨。LME期锡收跌222美元，报33312美元/吨。LME期钴收平，报33335美 元/吨。 （责任编辑：康博） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - On August 7th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.46%, and the position increasing by 15,654 lots to 224,000 lots. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.8%, and the position decreasing by 2,072 lots to 136,000 lots. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focus has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon production capacity and the resumption of production in Southwest China of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in Southwest China will be the marginal driving factor [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoint - Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly on August 7th, and polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focuses on supply pressure and weak demand. Continuously track the short SI and long PS opportunity, and industrial silicon is affected by the resumption of production in Southwest China and electricity price subsidies [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price increased slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The current lowest delivery product price was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 105, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 4,030. The factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1,100, and the social inventory decreased by 1,100 [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price decreased, and some spot prices increased. The current lowest delivery product price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount decreased to 5,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 60, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: Most of the DMC and other organic silicon spot prices remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Include charts of various industrial silicon brand prices, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Include charts of DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [13][16] 3.3 Inventory - Include charts of industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Include charts of the average cost level and average profit level of main producing areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][31] 4. Non - core Content (Team Introduction) - The non - core content includes the introduction of the non - ferrous metals team, including the background and achievements of members such as Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi [32][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper futures showed a strong and volatile trend today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is favorable, while the overseas situation is poor. Recent US economic data has continuously fallen short of expectations, and there is a need to be cautious about overseas recession trading. On the industrial side, the upstream maintains high production, and with the downstream in the off - season, demand is marginally weakening, and electrolytic copper inventories tend to rise. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 level [5]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum futures increased in open interest and rose today, with the main contract price breaking through the 20,600 mark. The domestic macro - environment has warmed up, and as aluminum has a strong domestic pricing ability, the price has risen significantly. In the industrial aspect, in the off - season, aluminum rods are showing a stockpiling trend, and electrolytic aluminum is also stockpiling. With the macro - environment warming up and the industry being bearish, the futures price is expected to run strongly [6]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel futures decreased in open interest and rose today, and the main contract price broke through the 121,000 mark. The domestic environment was favorable today, and the non - ferrous metal sector generally showed a strong trend. The open interest of nickel has been continuously decreasing, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 level [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 6, according to SMM, the PT Gresik smelter in Indonesia entered maintenance due to an oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of about 2 - 4 weeks. The annual production of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons. On August 4, Sichuan Province recently issued the "Several Opinions on Deeply Promoting a New Round of Mineral Exploration Breakthrough Strategic Action to Promote High - quality Development of the Mining Industry" [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics, on August 6, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 31,219 tons, a decrease of 63 tons from the previous trading day and a decrease of 8 tons from last Wednesday (July 30). On August 5, according to SMM statistics, in terms of the two - place inventory of domestic aluminum rods, the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong was 58,500 tons, and that in Wuxi was 34,000 tons, with a total of 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons [9]. - **Nickel**: On August 6, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,700 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, etc. [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts consist of nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].

金十期货7月30日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属注册及注销仓单如下： 1. 铜注册仓单117475吨，注销仓单19375吨，减少25吨。 2. 铝注册仓单446075吨，注销仓单14275吨，减少225吨。 3. 镍注册仓单198774吨，注销仓单9318吨，减少198吨。 4. 锌注册仓单57600吨，注销仓单51450吨，减少3100吨。 5. 铅注册仓单205075吨，注销仓单71300吨，减少600吨。 6. 锡注册仓单1365吨，注销仓单580吨，增加75吨。 LME注册及注销仓单日报 ...