Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 铝日报 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 美联储 9 月降息预期进一步升温，宽松预期支撑铝价延续上涨，7 日沪铝跳 空高开上行，主力 2509 最高触及 20830 元/吨，尾盘报收于 20750，涨幅 0.73%， 日线呈现小十字星形态，指数总持仓增加 17268 至 594821 手，08-09 升水转为平 水，因到货不均匀导致周四库存未继续累增，但实际下游消费未表现出全面好转， 仍处于消费 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 6, 2025, covering multiple metal sectors such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold had a V - shaped reversal, closing up 0.22% at $3380.86 per ounce; London silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold's main contract closed up 0.01% at 784.4 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed up 1.15% at 9178 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index oscillated within a range and almost closed flat at 98.727. The 10 - year US Treasury yield temporarily stopped falling at 4.2021%. The RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, closing down 0.05% at 7.1834. [2] Important Information - Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The final value of the US 7 - month S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, higher than the expected 55.2 and the previous value of 55.2. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - Due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payrolls data last week, the "strong reality" of the US economy's resilience has loosened. The newly released ISM and S&P services PMI point in different directions, and the precious metals market mainly trades towards weak expectations. [2] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, existing long positions can be considered to be held. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Last night, the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78070 yuan per ton, down 0.52%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 1167 lots to 470,000 lots. The LME closed at $9634.5 per ton, down 0.65%. The LME inventory decreased by 14,275 tons to 153,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 262,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.1, lower than expected. Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs, increase tariffs on India, and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if necessary. Chile's copper exports in July were 179,996 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,396,851 tons, with 40,943 tons of copper and 997,013 tons of copper ore and concentrate exported to China. [6] Logic Analysis - The supply of copper mines is disturbed, and the production of smelters at home and abroad is differentiated. The inventory of non - US regions is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. [7][9] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term supply is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 77,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [10] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 3 yuan to 3207 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the northern comprehensive spot price of alumina by Aladdin down 10 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the national weighted index down 10.6 yuan to 3289.3 yuan. [11] Important Information - The full - cost of the alumina industry in July was 2905 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan from the previous month, with a profit of about 275 yuan per ton. A mine's memorandum was revoked, and its shipping terminal was suspended. India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at an FOB price of $377.25 per ton. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 6627 tons to 13,242 tons on August 5. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.75 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.8%. [12][13][15] Logic Analysis - The theoretical supply - demand surplus of alumina has significantly expanded, the spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. Before the significant increase in warehouse receipts, the alumina price has certain support in the range of 3000 - 3100 yuan. [16] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the alumina price will oscillate above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. Pay attention to the low - warehouse - receipt risk when entering the delivery month. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [16] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 30 yuan to 20,525 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China all increased. [18][20] Important Information - The White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, which will take effect on August 7. On August 5, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons to 44,287 tons. [20] Trading Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is strengthening. The LME aluminum inventory is increasing slightly, and the domestic market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and pay attention to the peak inventory in the off - season and the opportunity of the spread expansion. [20] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the aluminum price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures is between 40 - 70. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [21] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 19,955 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions all increased. [23] Important Information - As of July 31, the weekly production of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 0.19 million tons to 13.98 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.51 million tons. Some new projects in the new energy vehicle lightweight parts manufacturing are planned to be put into production. In July, the ADC12 industry's theoretical profit was 63 yuan per ton, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan compared with the previous month. [24][25] Trading Logic - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the import volume is low, the downstream demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price. [26] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate with the aluminum price. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spot price is at a discount of more than 300 yuan to the futures price. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.15% to $2750 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.07% to 22,300 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index increased its positions by 2137 lots to 207,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was between 22,280 - 22,375 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was poor. [30] Important Information - Western Mining's zinc production in the first half of 2025 was 62,875 tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and Glencore's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 251,600 tons, up 19% year - on - year. Glencore adjusted its 2025 zinc production guidance to 940,000 - 980,000 tons. [30][31] Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, the smelter production is active, and the consumption is in the off - season with obvious inventory accumulation. [32] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term zinc price may oscillate. Consider shorting on rallies due to the increasing supply and off - season consumption. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [33] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.61% to $1975.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 contract rose 0.24% to 16,755 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index reduced its positions by 283 lots to 112,500 lots. The SMM1 lead price fell 100 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand. [35] Important Information - Some regenerated lead smelting enterprises in East and Central China may adjust their scrap battery purchase prices if the lead price continues to weaken. The environmental protection work in Anhui may affect local regenerated lead smelting enterprises. [35][36] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead concentrates is tight, the price of lead - containing waste is high, the supply of primary lead is increasing, the production of regenerated lead is in a loss but still has an increment, and the downstream lead - battery enterprise purchasing has improved. [37] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the lead price may maintain a low - level oscillation. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [42] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell to $15,055 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 2172 tons to 211,254 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 fell to 120,500 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different nickel products changed. [40] Important Information - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of nickel batteries, and the nickel benchmark price in Indonesia has increased slightly. The US Fed may cut interest rates. [40][41] Logic Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the market's trading of the US economic recession affect the nickel price. The nickel market has an oversupply expectation, and the inventory is slowly increasing. [43] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money put options. [44] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless steel main contract SS2509 fell to 12,935 yuan per ton, and the index increased its positions by 3063 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [46] Important Information - Zimbabwe plans to ban chromium ore exports, and the chromium ore inventory in China has reached a record high. [47] Logic Analysis - The market trades the US economic recession expectation. The cost of stainless steel has increased slightly, the production is expected to increase in August, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. [48] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. [48][49] Group 11: Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin 2509 contract closed at 266,950 yuan per ton, up 0.3%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1105 lots to 47,716 lots. The spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai Metal Market increased, and the actual demand is still weak. [50] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, and Trump announced tariff plans. [50][51] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which boosts the tin price. The LME inventory is low, the supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. [51] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the tin price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. [52] Group 12: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures rose due to the impact of coking coal, and the main contract closed at 8450 yuan per ton. The spot price of industrial silicon generally fell by 100 - 250 yuan per ton. [55] Important Information - Hesheng Silicon Industry will reduce industrial silicon production capacity. The production of DMC and polysilicon is expected to increase in August. [55] Comprehensive Analysis - If leading manufacturers resume production in August, there will be a slight surplus of industrial silicon; otherwise, there may be a supply - demand gap of 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The social inventory is high, and the spot is not tight. [55][56] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it may rise due to sentiment in the short term but will be weak after the sentiment fades. For the options strategy, there is no recommendation. For the arbitrage strategy, conduct a reverse spread arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts. [56] Group 13: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures rose due to the increase in coking coal prices, and the main contract closed at 50,330 yuan per ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon are given. [58] Important Information - The MIIT issued a notice on energy - saving inspections for the polysilicon industry. [58] Comprehensive Analysis - The polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, and there may be a surplus of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The expectation of polysilicon capacity integration is strengthening, and the expected futures price after integration is 60,000 - 65,000 yuan per ton. [58] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, hold long positions. For the arbitrage strategy, hold long positions in polysilicon and short positions in industrial silicon for the long term, and close the reverse spread arbitrage on the far - month polysilicon contracts. [59] Group 14: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell to 67,840 yuan per ton, and the index reduced its positions by 11,764 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 1840 tons to 14,443 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased. [60] Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in July were 23,824 tons, with 20,930 tons of lithium carbonate, and 13,633 tons were exported to China. The new - energy vehicle wholesale forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted. The production of some lithium mines is normal. Some new lithium carbonate production projects have been put into operation. [60][61] Logic Analysis - The supply - side news is bearish, the long - position funds are leaving, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. [62] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate downward to find support. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money call options. [65]

Group 1 - China Shipbuilding plans to absorb and merge China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation through a share exchange, with trading suspension starting from August 13, 2025 [1] - China Shipbuilding was established in May 1998, focusing on shipbuilding (military and civilian), ship repair, marine engineering, and electromechanical equipment [1] Group 2 - SanChao New Materials intends to raise 250 million yuan through a private placement to Wuxi Boda He Yi Technology Co., with a share price of 20.04 yuan [2] - SanChao New Materials is undergoing a change in control, with Boda He Yi acquiring a total of 18.99 million shares, making it the controlling shareholder [2][3] Group 3 - Zhenyou Technology's actual controller plans to transfer 5% of the company's shares to Shenzhen Century Zhiyuan Private Equity Fund Management Co., at a price of 22.13 yuan per share, totaling 213 million yuan [4] - Zhenyou Technology was established in April 2005, focusing on the design, research, sales, and service of communication system equipment [4] Group 4 - Zhizheng Co. is set to undergo a major asset restructuring, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange scheduled to review the transaction on August 11, 2025 [5] - Zhizheng Co. was established in December 2004, specializing in high polymer materials for cables and semiconductor equipment [5] Group 5 - Shaoneng Co. reported a net profit of 95.90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 42.43%, despite a revenue increase of 6.95% to 2.335 billion yuan [6] - Shaoneng Co. was established in June 1993, focusing on energy (electricity, heating, steam), ecological plant fiber products, and precision manufacturing [6] Group 6 - Lide New Energy reported a net profit of 8.95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, down 90.17%, with revenue of 496 million yuan, a decrease of 6.02% [7] - Lide New Energy was established in August 2013, focusing on investment, development, construction, and operation of wind and solar power projects [7] Group 7 - Zhongdian Environmental Protection achieved a net profit of 53.94 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.87%, despite a revenue decline of 10.70% to 315 million yuan [8] - Zhongdian Environmental Protection was established in January 2001, specializing in the research, manufacturing, sales, and service of ecological environmental governance equipment [8] Group 8 - Qiaoyuan Co. has decided to terminate its intention to acquire the controlling stake in Deyang Hongchen Chemical Co. due to a lack of consensus among parties [10] - Qiaoyuan Co. was established in November 2001, focusing on the cleaning, collection, transportation, and treatment of municipal solid waste [10] Group 9 - ST Changfang plans to publicly transfer part of its assets, including the Ping Shan Changfang Industrial Park, with a starting price of 374 million yuan [12] - ST Changfang was established in May 2005, focusing on the research, design, production, and sales of LED off-grid lighting and other electronic products [12] Group 10 - He Xin Instruments reported a net loss of 17.46 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 52.82 million yuan, down 48.88% [13] - He Xin Instruments was established in June 2004, focusing on the research, production, and sales of mass spectrometers and related technologies [13] Group 11 - Fengli Intelligent plans to raise no more than 730 million yuan through a private placement to specific investors, with funds allocated for various precision manufacturing projects [17] - Fengli Intelligent was established in April 1995, focusing on the research, production, and sales of small modulus gears and precision reducers [17] Group 12 - Tuo Jing Technology's employee stockholding platforms plan to transfer 6.99 million shares, accounting for 2.50% of the total share capital [21] - Tuo Jing Technology was established in April 2010, focusing on the research, production, and sales of high-end semiconductor thin film equipment [21] Group 13 - Tuo Jing Life plans to acquire 72.86% of Wuhan Kanglu Biological Technology Co. for 291 million yuan, with plans for further acquisitions in 2026 and 2027 [22] - Tuo Jing Life was established in November 2003, focusing on the research, production, and sales of in vitro diagnostic products [22]

周期行业"反内卷"投资机会 20250803 摘要 钢铁、水泥、煤炭等行业需进一步政策以改善竞争格局，当前政策力度 不足以使其价格见底回升。反内卷政策与上一轮供给侧改革相比，在量 化指标、法律手段和需求端刺激方面尚有不足。 水泥行业可通过补足产能、环保抓手（超低排放改造）、碳交易等措施 反内卷，可能使产能和产量下降 15%-20%，关键在于强有力的统筹执 行。 钢铁行业减产量执行情况需观察，当前盈利状况（毛利约 200 元/吨） 削弱减产动力，出口需求拉动增加不确定性。煤炭行业受能源局限制超 产文件影响，但盈利丰厚，反洗钱力度或受阻。 短期内，前期涨幅较大的钢铁和水泥性价比不高，玻璃和建材可能更具 性价比。快递行业提价有助于改善盈利预期，但需各品牌达成共识及区 域协调。 化工板块经历下行周期，但供给端出现积极变化，如资本开支下降和落 后产能退出。需求端尚未见强劲增长动力，投资重心应放在供给端变化 上。 Q&A 反内卷政策的初衷和目标是什么？ 反内卷政策的初衷主要有两个：一是鼓励创新，避免行业内过度竞争对创新的 不利影响；二是推动物价回升，特别是在 PPI 连续负增长超过 30 个月的背景下， 物价回升对于经济 ...