01 "疯狂"的黄金 黄金价格近期迎来突破性上涨， 国际现货黄金站上 5200 美元 / 盎司，国内深圳水贝市场金价同步突破 1300 元 / 克，双双创下历史峰值。 同时，美联储已将基准利率下调至 3.50-3.75% 区间，叠加抗通胀属性的美国通胀指数国债（TIPS）震荡走高， 市场普遍认定美国正式进入降息周期，黄 金也将更上一层楼。 2025 年全年，黄金价格呈现震荡上行态势， 截至 12 月 31 日，COMEX 黄金结算价较年初累计上涨 64.34%，成为全年表现亮眼的资产之一。 02 不止黄金 其实，黄金的强势上涨并非孤例，工业金属的全面飘红已经传递出明确信号 —— 这轮资产上涨行情不是单一品种的 "独角戏"，而是整个贵金属、工业金 属板块的 "集体起舞"。 2025 一整年，工业金属价格迎来全面上涨，没有一种出现下跌。 锡和铜组成 "领涨梯队"，涨幅双双突破 43%，分别达到 44.91% 和 43.96%，成为板块中最亮眼的存在； 铝、镍、锌、铅则紧随其后稳步跟涨，涨幅依次 为 17.03%、9.83%、4.68% 和 2.45%，整个工业金属板块呈现出全线向上的态势。 下面，给大家介绍下20 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ Wind铝指数1月28日大涨，收盘涨幅达6.94%，常铝股份、华峰铝业、中国铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业 等公司涨停。 对于铝行业景气度回升的原因，多家上市公司独家回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，近期，电解铝 涨价、铝行业景气度回升主要受供需紧平衡影响。目前，电解铝行业供给侧产能已经基本处于满产状 态，下游需求量维持较快增长，基本面向好是行业景气度提升的主要原因。 一家头部上市公司相关负责人告诉记者，从铝行业基本面看，电解铝行业本身经历了供给侧改革，行业 产能有天花板，整体产能大概为4500万吨，而最近基本上是处于满负荷状态。下游包括新能源汽车、光 伏、人工智能、储能等领域都有大量的用铝需求，需求整体向好。近期，市场对于国际上铝矿石以及铝 锭的进出口有一些担忧。此外，美元近期走弱也促使一些资金回流到金属板块。景气度回升是多个因素 叠加的结果。 对于铝行业景气度回升的原因，多家上市公司独家回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，近期，电解铝 涨价、铝行业景气度回升主要受供需紧平衡影响。目前，电解铝行业供给侧产能已经基本处于满产状 态，下游需求量维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, cross-market sentiment resonance, and a solid long-term narrative of supply constraints [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 28, significant capital inflow into Shanghai aluminum led to a price increase of 5.75%, reaching a historical high, with over 50,000 contracts added and more than 1.7 billion yuan flowing in [2]. - The upstream alumina market saw a reduction in positions and a price increase of 3.27%, closing at 2,811 yuan/ton, with June and July contracts also rising over 3% [2]. - Several aluminum-related stocks in the A-share market, such as China Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum, hit their daily price limits [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are raising concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, which produces about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum [4]. - A weaker US dollar is benefiting dollar-denominated metals, while speculative funds are shifting towards aluminum due to its relative undervaluation compared to other non-ferrous metals [4]. - The strong performance of leading aluminum stocks in the A-share market has sent bullish signals to the futures market, creating a positive feedback loop between stock and futures prices [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its policy ceiling of 45 million tons, with operational capacity at 44.1 million tons, indicating limited room for growth [6][10]. - European aluminum production is facing structural shortages, with local production at only 950,000 tons against a consumption of 13.5 million tons, creating a significant gap [7]. - New capacity in Indonesia is expected to be slow to materialize due to severe power supply bottlenecks, with construction timelines extending to 3-5 years [8]. - Long-term demand for aluminum is projected to grow significantly in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, reinforcing market consensus on future supply-demand gaps [10]. Group 4: Current Market Overview - The average price of domestic aluminum (A00) is reported at 24,320 yuan/ton, with regional price differences indicating stronger demand in southern China [11]. - Weekly electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly to 85,770 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [11]. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in December was 513,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.56% [12]. - Downstream demand is showing a divergence, with traditional sectors like construction underperforming, while new sectors like electric vehicles are driving robust demand [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent price increases are attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward pressure on prices despite potential demand suppression from high prices [17][19]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fundamentals may appear weak, the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, providing opportunities for long-term investors [19][20]. - The market is advised to be cautious of high volatility due to the interplay of short-term weaknesses and long-term strengths, with a focus on strategic positioning rather than aggressive trading [19][21].

顺期货运 沪铝棉花齐获商品期权榜首 份看涨期权大涨400%! | 期货品种 | 数据涨幅 | | 对应标的 | 标的涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝2603购27400 | | 400.0% | 沪铝2603 | 5.75% | | 棉花2603购16200 | | 400.0% | 棉花2603 | 2.90% | | 棉花2603购16000 | | 400.0% | 棉花2603 | 2.90% | | 沪铝2603购26000 | | 395.4% | 沪铝2603 | 5.75% | | 沪铝2603购26200 | | 382.8% | 沪铝2603 | 5.75% | | 沪铝2603购25000 | | 256.0% | 沪铝2603 | 5.75% | | 沪铝2603购24800 | | 248.4% | 沪铝2603 | 5.75% | 【400%！沪铝 + 棉花期权同步暴涨，资金分流 + 波动率飙升引爆双重红利】 商品期权市场多点开花，沪铝与棉花合约携手领涨，头部合约涨幅清一色突破 400%，基本金属与农产品板块联动上演杠杆盛宴，交易 ...

南财智讯1月28日电，焦作万方发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 100000万元—115000万元，同比预增69.87%—95.35%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润为101148万元—116148万元，同比预增63.63%—87.90%。报告期内，公司坚持效 益优先，着力提升管理水平等相关工作，本期业绩增长主要系电解铝业务销售价格上涨及成本下降影 响。 ...

南财智讯1月28日电，鼎胜新材公告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4.70亿元—5.50亿 元，同比预增56.15%—82.72%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 4.40亿元—5.20亿元，同比预增62.36%—91.88%；主要变动原因为：业绩预增的主要原因是报告期内公 司产品产销量及其他收益增加所致。报告期内，附加值较高的动力电池铝箔下游需求持续旺盛，产销量 较去年同期有大幅提升，一定程度上促进了公司整体利润的增长。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，美国政府在1月 底前发生新一轮停摆的概率走高，进一步影响市场对美国政经稳定的信心；有消息指出美国被曝向以色 列通报对伊朗行动准备进展，美军队在伊朗周边的布局令市场感到地缘政治或再起波澜；周四凌晨将公 布美联储新一轮利率决策，按兵不动概率较大。库存方面，LME库存增加1825吨至172350吨；Comex库 存增加2921吨至516070吨；SHFE铜仓单下降406吨144908吨，BC铜下降25吨至11141吨。近期地缘政治 搅局下，影响市场对全球经济稳定性的信心，另外高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年， 这加大了产业内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但无从资金对有色追捧力度来看，仍维系着铜价 易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价，更多的需从金融属性的角度去看， 整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜LME镍跌1.91%报18235 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 铜铝下游开工率有所回升，高价接受度提升 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 24.5 37.5 131.2 沪深 300 1.1 -0.2 23.3 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 3、《有色金属行业周报：LME 铜库 存注销，推动铜价走高》2025-12- 09 ▌贵金属：PCE 数据温和叠加年内仍将降息，支撑贵 金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4946.25 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 16 日+335.20 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-27 今 日 发 现 贵金属市场剧烈波动，交易所出手降温 观点分享： 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX 白银一度大涨超 16%，现货白银一度涨近 14%，双 双站上 117 美元/盎司关口，但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX 白银涨幅收窄 至 2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX 黄金现货黄金一度连续突破 5000 美元、5100 美元两道 关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX 黄金收涨 0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至 0.5%，双双徘 徊于 5000 美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨 7%，最终收跌逾 3%。交易所出手为商品期货市场 降温。上期所上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至 800 手 和 200 手，对 16 名客户限制锡、白银期货开仓 1 个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货 合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%和 11%。广期所 也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | ...