智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研究报告指出，中国宏桥(01378)作为行业龙头，在供应受限、价格向好的 环境下有望持续受益。基于更高的铝价预测，瑞银将宏桥的2026年预测净利润上调11%，2027年预测净 利润上调16%。该行重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，并将目标价从28港元上调至38.6港元。 基于供需偏紧的核心判断，瑞银上调了今明两年铝价预期：2026年中国铝价预测上调5%至22000元/ 吨，2027年上调7%至23000元/吨；伦敦金属交易所铝价预测也被上调约15%，主要得益于铜价上涨催生 的铝替代需求增长。 具体来看，国内铝业产能受政策严格管控，上限锁定在4520万吨/年，当前产能利用率已超98%，接近 政策红线。新增产能方面，2026年仅有天山铝业20万吨/年扩建项目及扎鲁特旗35万吨/年新建项目计划 投产，2027年则无新增产能规划。海外市场方面，主要供应增量集中于印度尼西亚，但受部分项目可能 减产的影响，2026-2027年全球原铝供应年增长率预计仅为1%-2%。同期全球铝需求将预期保持4%的年 增长率，全球铝市供需缺口有望进一步扩大。 铝价预测同步上调，铜价上涨促使铝替代需求 供应端 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, the global supply - side growth rate of primary aluminum may slow down in 2026 due to capacity constraints in China and slow new capacity and复产 progress overseas, while demand is expected to remain resilient, with the supply gap expanding compared to 2025. The mid - term supply - demand pattern is still strong. In the near term, the aluminum price may fluctuate in late November as there is no significant new demand increase despite sufficient supply and resilient demand [4][11]. - The aluminum market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait for the price to rise. For short - term trading, consider reducing or exiting long positions to avoid risks [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Domestic bauxite inventory has reached the same - period high, sufficient for this year's production. Although there are repeated disturbances in the mining end, the short - term impact is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of November 14, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96 million tons and a utilization rate of about 85.37%. Alumina supply and demand have been in surplus for some time, and supply flexibility is restricted. The expected increase in imported ore supply also puts downward pressure on ore prices [9]. - **Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons. The global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage, and overseas production cuts due to power shortages may reduce future supply increments [9]. - **Import and Export**: In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, slightly lower than in September, at the average level in recent years. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,700 yuan/ton, narrowing from last week's 2,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: Different aluminum product sectors have different demand situations. The aluminum profile and alloy sectors are relatively stable, while the aluminum plate, strip, and foil sectors may face a downward trend. The aluminum cable sector may see a slight increase, and the overall downstream processing industry shows a differentiated trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, basically stable compared to last week, about 10% higher than the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,500 tons, about 2% higher than last week and about 50% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory is about 1% higher than last week and about 22% lower than last year, still at a low level in recent years [10][17][18]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 22,800 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,800 yuan/ton, up from 4,400 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The overseas macro - environment is unfavorable due to uncertainties in the US economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance. The aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is strong [11]. Important Industry Price Changes - The price of bauxite is generally stable, but the market is pessimistic about the future, expecting a further decline in December. The coal price has been rising since September, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The alumina price has been falling since mid - August, and the cost support may strengthen after the dry season in the southwest [12]. Important Industry Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory has slightly increased, remaining at a high level this year. The alumina inventory has been rapidly accumulating since late May, reaching a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas is stable, while the aluminum rod inventory has increased [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing a differentiated trend. It is expected that the short - term operating rate will continue to show a differentiated pattern [26]. Futures and Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai aluminum futures is moderately weak [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,840 yuan/ton this week, up from - 2,080 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread has a moderately negative impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is near the high since April 2022. The latest net long position has slightly decreased, but the long - side has been increasing positions since June, and the short - side has been slightly increasing since October. The overall market is still strong [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week, at a high level this year. The long - and short - sides have been increasing positions since October. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased, with large internal differences. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has decreased in the past two weeks. Overall, the main funds are still bullish, but the differences are increasing [41].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 风险偏好回落 铝价高位调整 核心观点及策略 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 1 / 7 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储官员鹰派发言一度压制美 联储间隙预期，不过就业数据较弱，后续降息预期仍 有变动。美国政府即将开门，前期暂停的经济数据密 集公布，市场宏观波动放大。基本面国内供应端开工 产能稳定，铝水比例回落，铸锭量提高。海外由于电 力紧张，未来供应端担忧持续笼罩。消费端上周铝加 工开工率小幅回升0.4%至62%，电力及汽车板块消费 较有韧性。不过旺淡季切换下开工率难持续回升。周 度铝 ...

中长线趋势看多 在全球能源转型背景下，供应刚性、需求强劲，加之宏观乐观预期强化，铝价易涨难跌。不过，短线来 看，沪铝上冲22000元/吨后，消费淡季的季节性压力可能导致价格出现下行风险。 2025年以来，沪铝价格呈现稳健上涨态势，尤其在11月13日，盘中价格突破22000元/吨，创下年内新 高。这一趋势主要受宏观环境与基本面共振的推动。 宏观乐观预期强化 美联储在9月和10月连续降息，提振大宗商品有色市场情绪。同时，中美经贸关系缓和，双方在关税问 题上达成共识，有助于缓解铝产品贸易壁垒，缓解市场对出口的担忧。此外，美国政治不确定性有所下 降，政府"停摆"出现转机，加之公布的经济数据并未如市场预期般悲观，共同强化了宏观层面的乐观预 期。 成本支撑减弱 近期，几内亚雨季和澳大利亚发运量减少导致港口铝土矿库存明显下降。待几内亚雨季结束，铝土矿发 运将回到前期水平。另外，我国自非主流产地的铝土矿进口补充量持续增长，国内样本企业原料库存充 足，保证了下游冶炼生产开工稳定，以至于几内亚矿和澳矿进口报价稳步下调，矿端成本支撑减弱。 氧化铝生产在原料备库充足的情况下保持高开工率。截至10月，全国氧化铝建成产能为11470万吨 ...

2025年以来，沪铝价格呈现稳健上涨态势，尤其在11月13日，盘中价格突破22000元／吨，创下年内新 高。这一趋势主要受宏观环境与基本面共振的推动。 宏观乐观预期强化 美联储在9月和10月连续降息，提振大宗商品有色市场情绪。同时，中美经贸关系缓和，双方在关税问 题上达成共识，有助于缓解铝产品贸易壁垒，缓解市场对出口的担忧。此外，美国政治不确定性有所下 降，政府"停摆"出现转机，加之公布的经济数据并未如市场预期般悲观，共同强化了宏观层面的乐观预 期。 成本支撑减弱 国内产能几乎满负荷运行 截至10月，国内电解铝建成产能为4572万吨，运行产能为4456万吨，产能利用率处于97.46%的高位。 电解铝行业高利润促使厂家积极生产，目前运行产能接近4500万吨的政策红线，后续运行产能增长有 限。此外，截至10月，电解铝社会库存处于往年同期偏低水平，华南地区库存偏高且去化不畅，华东地 区库存持续去化带来市场惜售挺价效应，地区差异更多反映出地区性下游需求消化能力不同。 根据美国地质调查局出版的《2025年矿产品摘要》，2024年，全球电解铝产量评估约为7200万吨，其中 中国贡献约六成，海外远期电解铝虽有新增产能布局计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid construction of data centers in the United States is raising concerns about electricity supply shortages, which may impact various industries, particularly aluminum production [4]. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - In 2024, the United States is projected to generate approximately 4.3 trillion kWh of electricity, which is about 42.5% of China's expected generation of 10.1 trillion kWh [5]. - The industrial sector accounts for 26% of the total electricity consumption in the U.S., with total electricity consumption expected to reach 4.1 trillion kWh in 2024 [5]. Group 2: Data Center Electricity Consumption - Data centers in the U.S. are expected to consume around 178 TWh of electricity in 2024, representing about 4% of the total electricity consumption, and this is projected to increase to 606 TWh by 2030, accounting for 12% of total consumption [6]. - The increase in electricity consumption by data centers is expected to account for approximately 41% of the total increase in electricity demand in the U.S. from 2024 to 2030 [10]. Group 3: Aluminum Production and Costs - The U.S. is projected to produce 670,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, which is about 0.9% of global production and 1.6% of China's production [7]. - The electricity cost for producing electrolytic aluminum in the U.S. is approximately 1.9 times higher than in China, with U.S. industrial electricity prices averaging 9.06 cents/kWh compared to China's average of 0.386 yuan/kWh [8][9]. - The high electricity costs and supply constraints are likely to accelerate the exit of high-cost aluminum production capacity in the U.S. and delay the construction of new capacity [10].

Summary of the Conference Call for Innovation Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Innovation Materials Technology Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Advanced materials, specifically focusing on aluminum products for 3C consumer electronics and automotive lightweight applications Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: The company achieved a net profit of 355 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.17% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Total revenue for the first three quarters reached 58.716 billion yuan, with third-quarter revenue at 19.575 billion yuan [3] Globalization Strategy - **Investments**: - Invested $193 million in Vietnam for a 3C consumer electronics profile project, which has begun trial production [2][4] - Invested $197 million in Mexico for an automotive lightweight aluminum alloy project, with land acquisition completed [2][4] - Plans to invest up to $209 million in a joint venture for the Saudi Red Sea aluminum industry chain project [4] - **Digital Transformation**: Implemented a Manufacturing Execution System (MES) and optimized the ERP system to enhance production efficiency and management [4][10] Product Structure and High-End Transformation - **Sales Growth**: - Profile product sales increased by 22.99% to 117,300 tons [2][6] - Aluminum rod and cable product sales rose by 13.1% to 775,600 tons [2][6] - **High-End Product Focus**: The company is shifting towards high-end precision processing to enhance competitiveness in the 3C consumer electronics and automotive lightweight sectors [4][11] Recycling and Green Aluminum Initiatives - **Recycled Aluminum**: The company recycled 914,100 tons of aluminum, a 10.97% increase year-on-year [2][7] - **Production Capacity**: Operates 14 intelligent recycling lines with an annual capacity of 1.7 million tons [7] - **Green Energy Utilization**: Utilizes green electricity to produce aluminum alloy ingots and rods, with a capacity of 334,000 tons [7] Research and Development - **Patents**: Secured 62 new patents, including 9 invention patents, to support product innovation [2][8] - **Collaborations**: Partnered with Xiaomi to develop materials for automotive applications, which are now in mass production [9] Future Outlook - **Business Optimization**: Plans to further optimize product structure towards higher value-added and technologically advanced high-end precision processing [11] - **Competitive Advantage**: Aims to maintain competitive advantages in high-end sectors while enhancing profitability and core competitiveness for sustainable growth [11]

雷递网 雷建平 11月16日 创新国际实业集团有限公司（简称："创新国际"，股票代码："2788"）日前开启招股，准备2025年11月24日在港股上市。 创新实业计划发售5亿股股份，其中4.5亿股股份为国际配售股份，5000万股股份为香港公开发售股份。创新实业发行区间为10.18港元至10.99港元，以招股 价每股最高10.99港元计，集资净额约为54.95亿港元。 创新实业基石投资者包括高瓴、中国宏桥、泰康人寿、嘉能可、摩科瑞、景林、ORIX欧力士、Investcorp、中国太保、广发基金、富国基金、Millennium、 Jane Street、Polymer、厦门国贸、Brilliance及润晖投资等17名基石投资者，一共认购总额约3.51亿美元。 | | | | 假設超額配股權並無獲行使 | | 假設超額配股權獲悉數行仍 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 緊隨全球發售 完成後已發行 | | 緊隨全球 完成後已 | | | | 將獲認購的 | 發售股份的 | 股本總額的 | 發售股份的 | 股本總額 | | 基石投資者 | ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 雨季后几内亚矿山迎来恢复性发货， 氧化铝检修规模扩大 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 月 16 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西、河南的雨季过去，部分此前 因下雨停产的矿山逐步要恢复生产, 雨季结束至春节前的传统 生产窗口期内，两地矿企生产活动预计将较前几月呈现边际改善 趋势。采暖季深入，北方山西及河南地区对非煤矿山开采管控亦 愈发严格，尤其严查矿山超产行为。国产矿供应短时难以改善， 市场实际流通的矿石量极为有限。进口方面，几内亚矿报价区间 为 71-72 美元/干吨，不同品位矿石价格差异显著。雨季后几内 亚矿山迎来恢复性发货，表明当地路况已显著改善，后续集港发 货将逐步回归正常节奏。几内亚政事主要忙于大选，西芒杜为当 下采矿业重中之重，对铝矿的前期历史遗留问题处理进程缓慢。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The rapid development of data centers in the United States is causing concerns over electricity supply, which presents investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [1]. - In 2024, U.S. electricity generation is projected to be approximately 42.5% of China's, with industrial electricity consumption accounting for 26% of total usage [1]. - The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is expected to rise from 4% of total electricity usage in 2024 to 12% by 2030, indicating significant growth in demand [1]. - U.S. electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is estimated at 670,000 tons, representing 0.9% of global production, and is significantly lower than the 3.67 million tons produced in 2000 [2][3]. - The electricity cost for producing aluminum in the U.S. is approximately 1.9 times higher than in China, which poses economic challenges for U.S. aluminum producers [3]. Summary by Sections Data Center Electricity Demand - The electricity consumption of data centers in the U.S. is projected to increase significantly, with an estimated 178 TWh in 2024 and 606 TWh by 2030, which will account for 41% of the increase in U.S. electricity demand from 2024 to 2030 [1][3]. U.S. Aluminum Production - The U.S. electrolytic aluminum production capacity is concentrated in a few plants, with total production expected to be 670,000 tons in 2024, a drastic decline from 3.67 million tons in 2000 due to rising electricity costs [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Yun Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Shenhuo Co., while keeping an eye on China Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial, as the demand for aluminum is expected to rise due to data center growth [4].