证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 08 年 月 日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 铝产品"量价齐升"，25Q1 利润同比大幅增长 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 7 日披露 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告，预计 实现利润总额 62-67 亿元，同比增加 30%-40%；预计实现归母净利 34- 36 亿元，同比增加 53%-63%，环比增加 0.5%-6.4%，利润增加主要系 公司全方位极致降本增效及主要产品同比增产所致。 25Q1 青海 50 万吨电解铝项目爬产，电解铝增量成为利润贡献点。氧化 铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 氧化铝均价 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1%。2）量，广西华昇二期 200 万吨氧化铝项目预 计于 2025 年上半年投产，全部投产后，公司氧化铝年产能为 2426 万吨， 权益产能 1967 万吨。电解铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 电解铝均价 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%。2）量，内蒙古华云三期 42 万吨电解铝项目及青海分公司 50 万吨电解铝项目中分别于 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit total of 62-67 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34-36 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53%-63% year-on-year [1] - The increase in profits is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in the production of key products [1] - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantages across the entire industry chain through strategic initiatives, including market analysis, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement [3] Summary by Sections Production and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina was 3,833 yuan/ton, up 15.2% year-on-year but down 28.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is ramping up production at its new 50,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [2] Strategic Goals - The company is committed to achieving its strategic goal of becoming a world-class enterprise by enhancing operational efficiency, optimizing industrial layout, promoting technological innovation, and improving management structures [3] - The focus includes expanding into small metal industries such as gallium, lithium, and magnesium, and advancing towards digital and automated operations [3] Market Outlook - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing its capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to recover, potentially driving aluminum prices higher [4] - The report suggests cautious assumptions for the average prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina from 2025 to 2027, forecasting net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for those years, respectively [4] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025 to 222.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% [5] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) estimates and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the coming years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.1% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to falling prices and volumes of coal products, as well as rising prices of aluminum's main raw material, alumina [1][2]. - The company plans to maintain a high level of dividends, distributing 8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.799 billion yuan, which is consistent with the previous year [4]. - The report anticipates improved profit margins in the coming years due to fluctuations in aluminum prices and a decrease in alumina prices, projecting net profits of 5.57 billion yuan, 6.76 billion yuan, and 7.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an aluminum production of 1.6285 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with sales of 1.6289 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. The average selling price of aluminum was 15,956 yuan per ton, down 3.6% year-on-year [2]. - The coal production and sales in 2024 were 6.739 million tons and 6.7013 million tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 6.0% and 7.5% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal was 1,019 yuan per ton, down 7.8% year-on-year [3]. - The company reported an investment income of 666.5 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 98.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the transfer of a 51% stake in Shenhuo Power [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 41.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.33% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound to 5.57 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 29.31% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 7.41 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5].

Group 1 - GIC Private Limited reduced its stake in Zijin Mining by 62 million shares in Q1, realizing approximately HKD 1 billion based on an average transaction price of HKD 16.1 per share [1] - As of June 30, 2024, GIC remains the third-largest shareholder of Zijin Mining's H shares, holding 428 million shares, which represents 1.61% of the total issued shares [2] - The reduction in GIC's holdings has raised market speculation, especially against the backdrop of rising gold prices [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining has benefited from a significant increase in gold prices, with its A-share price rising over 20% in both 2023 and 2024 [3] - Institutional investors, including public funds and private equity, have been reducing their holdings in Zijin Mining, with public funds holding 16.33% as of the end of 2024, down by over 1 percentage point [3] - Three ETFs collectively realized over HKD 1.1 billion from their holdings in Zijin Mining during the fourth quarter [3] Group 3 - The current A-share price-to-earnings ratio of Zijin Mining is 14.51, which is close to its three-year average of 15.85, indicating a 60% premium over its three-year low of around 9 times [5] - The industrial metal sector index has seen a decline of 4.69% from March 26 to April 2, with Zijin Mining's A and H shares both dropping over 4.5% during the same period [5]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 30.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but net profit increased by 622% to 0.7 billion yuan, driven by revenue structure optimization and cost reductions from AI-enabled efficiency improvements [4][5] - The payment business showed marginal improvement with a revenue decline of 22.9% to 26.9 billion yuan, attributed to a 19% drop in total GPV and a slight decrease in payment rates [5][6] - The company’s overseas payment business expanded significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [5] Group 2 - The company reported a revenue of 31.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17.2%, with a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, down 68.98% [11][12] - The domestic acquiring business processed a total of 1.47 trillion yuan, maintaining stable monthly transaction volumes, while overseas market revenue reached 9.01 billion yuan, with a 63.61% increase in high-end market revenue [13][14] - The company’s AI digital employee product has been commercialized, with applications in digital marketing and e-commerce [15] Group 3 - China Aluminum reported a revenue of 237.07 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.4% [16][17] - The increase in profits was primarily due to rising aluminum and alumina prices, with alumina revenue reaching 74 billion yuan, a 38.3% increase [18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.135 yuan per share, with a total dividend amount of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a payout ratio of 30.2% [20] Group 4 - Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, with a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [22][23] - The company’s online revenue reached 7.407 billion yuan, with significant growth in various channels, particularly Douyin [23][24] - The company is planning to issue H shares to enhance its brand and global supply chain capabilities [25][26] Group 5 - Kailai Ying reported total revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.82%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% [27][28] - The small molecule business showed stable growth, with revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.85% increase when excluding large orders [28][29] - The emerging business segment achieved revenue of 1.226 billion yuan, a growth of 2.25% [29] Group 6 - Zhejiang Shuju reported a revenue of 3.097 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.61%, with a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 22.84% [30][31] - The online gaming business generated 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 91.04% [33] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 203 million yuan [32] Group 7 - Zhongke Xingtou focuses on the space-earth big data industry, with a projected revenue of 40.78 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 63.98 billion yuan by 2027 [38][41] - The company has established a comprehensive digital earth solution, integrating data collection, processing, and application [39][40] - The company aims to expand its business into low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors [40] Group 8 - Yinghe Technology reported a revenue of 8.524 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.58%, with a net profit of 503 million yuan, down 9.14% [43][44] - The lithium battery equipment segment faced challenges, while the electronic cigarette segment showed strong performance with a revenue of 3.191 billion yuan [44][45] - The company expects growth in the lithium battery equipment market due to domestic production recovery and expansion into overseas markets [45][46] Group 9 - Meiya Optoelectronics achieved a revenue of 2.311 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.7%, with a net profit of 649 million yuan, down 12.8% [48] - The color sorting machine business grew by 9.9%, while the medical equipment segment faced a decline of 33.4% [49] - The company anticipates a recovery in the medical equipment sector due to ongoing economic development and demographic trends [49]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a core player in military carbon fiber prepregs, copper-based materials, and special thermal equipment, with expectations of significant growth over the next three years [1][3] - The subsidiary Jiangsu Tianniao is the leading domestic supplier of carbon fiber prepregs, expected to benefit from the rapid delivery of missile orders and new military equipment in the upcoming years [1][3] - The copper-based materials segment is projected to maintain stable revenue growth, with the company actively exploring applications in emerging fields such as robotics and AI computing [2][3] - The special thermal equipment segment is also expected to grow, with the subsidiary Dingli Technology planning to go public on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2][3] Summary by Sections Military Carbon Materials - Jiangsu Tianniao, a subsidiary, is the leading domestic player in carbon fiber prepregs, supplying nearly all carbon fiber prepregs for aircraft brake systems and solid rocket engine throat liners [1] - Revenue for Jiangsu Tianniao is projected to be CNY 621 million in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.87%, with a net profit of CNY 94 million, down 47.19% [1] Copper-Based Materials - The company is a leading domestic copper-based materials enterprise, with revenue expected to grow from CNY 36.43 billion in 2021 to CNY 52.48 billion in 2024 [2] - The copper processing industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company benefiting from applications in new fields [2] Special Thermal Equipment - Dingli Technology, another subsidiary, is a leading player in the special thermal equipment sector, with expected revenue of CNY 65.3 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit of CNY 11.5 million, down 9.49% [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of emerging industries such as aerospace and semiconductors [2] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 711 million, CNY 895 million, and CNY 1.057 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 15X, and 13X [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 46.31 billion in 2023 to CNY 65.60 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.1% [5][11]

Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) achieved a trading volume of 67 million yuan with a turnover rate of 5.46%, ranking first among its peers [1] - The market is gradually focusing on high-performance, dividend, and low-volatility stocks as it approaches the earnings season in April [2] - There is an expectation for a rotation towards low-priced, high-performance stocks with strong earnings improvement potential [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in April, particularly in the first half, due to various internal and external disturbances [3] - Domestic macro policy expectations may shift due to an important meeting at the end of April, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy support [3] - Investment strategies should target sectors that have lagged behind, are undervalued, and have potential policy catalysts [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: stable banks and insurance with long-term strategic value, consumer sectors supported by policy, and metals with economic support [4] - A50ETF Huabao (159596) and its off-market linked funds (Class A 021216/Class C 021217) are recommended for investment [5] - MACD golden cross signals indicate positive momentum for certain stocks [6]

来看，美元信用弱化为主线，看好金价中枢上移。白银兼具金融和工业属性，近年来光伏用 银增长带动供需格局紧张，银价弹性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金 集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖南黄金，关注中国黄金国 际，白银标的推荐盛达资源、兴业银锡。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。（民生证券 邱祖学, 张弋清 ） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：工业金属高位震荡，金价再创历史新高。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（03/21-03/28）上证综指下跌0.4%，沪深300指数上涨0.01%，SW有色指数上涨 0.28%，贵金属COMEX黄金上涨2.97%，COMEX白银上涨3.85%。工业金属LME铝、铜、 锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-2.84%、-0.70%、-2.60%、-0.22%、1.17%、4.35%；工业金属 库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-3.69%、-5.20%、-8.42%、-0.45%、-0.19%、-18.88%。 工业金属：关税担忧刺激 ...