Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port has shown strong market performance, with a significant increase in stock prices and a notable rise in duty-free sales following the implementation of "zero tariff" policies and the first day of island-wide customs closure [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Port sector experienced a 5.43% increase in overall stock prices, with 29 stocks reaching their daily limit [1] - Duty-free sales in Sanya reached 1.18 billion yuan on the first day of customs closure, with subsequent daily sales of 1.05 billion yuan and 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.8% and 47% respectively [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "zero tariff" policy scope will expand from 1,900 to 6,600 items, increasing the coverage of goods from approximately 21% to 74%, enhancing the policy's impact on consumer goods and industrial raw materials [1] - The introduction of policies aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency is expected to enhance the cost structure of business entities and stimulate market activity [2] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The expansion of the "zero tariff" policy and improved customs facilitation will promote the free flow of goods, attract more capital, and enhance the appeal of Hainan as a tourist destination [2] - The tourism retail, logistics, and related industries are expected to benefit significantly from the increase in duty-free sales and international tourism consumption driven by the new policies [2][3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The regulatory framework established post-closure is anticipated to trigger a migration peak for resource-oriented and institution-dependent industries, with a shift towards high-value manufacturing and technology sectors by 2028-2030 [3] - The closure marks a transition from a commodity flow-based opening to a rules-based opening, positioning Hainan as a significant area for international trade and investment [3][4]

中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 许冬石：中国银河证券宏观分析师、新发展研究院学术委员会执行负责人 路自愿：中国银河证券新发展研究院区域经济研究员 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8357-4134 ：xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 路自愿 ：136-7105-7587 ：luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070001 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 12 月上半月，提示重点关注中央经济工作会议：会议直面困难挑战，明确指 出供强需弱突出。明年宏观政策要求"跨""逆"结合 。货币政策表态更加积 极。同时，会提注重做好统筹内外部均衡 ，在外部压力暂 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiacheng International (603535) experienced a significant stock price increase of 9.96% on December 22, 2025, closing at 11.59 yuan, indicating strong market interest and potential investor confidence [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Data - On December 22, 2025, the stock had a turnover rate of 4.89%, with a trading volume of 249,800 hands and a total transaction value of 283 million yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 72.05 million yuan, accounting for 25.48% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 26.22 million yuan, representing 9.27% of the total [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Industry Comparison - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiacheng International reported a main operating income of 946 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year [3]. - The company's gross profit margin stood at 32.56%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.97%, ranking 5th in the logistics sector [3]. - The company's total market capitalization is 5.922 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 2.753 billion yuan, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, placing it 28th in the industry ranking [3]. Group 3: Recent Ratings and Institutional Interest - In the last 90 days, one institution has issued a buy rating for Jiacheng International, indicating some level of institutional confidence in the stock [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is actively building a robust commodity ecosystem, with significant steps taken in joining the global warehouse network of the London Metal Exchange and accelerating the establishment of an international gold trading market [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Hong Kong government plans to develop a comprehensive commodity development strategy to seize future opportunities [1] - The government emphasizes the unique advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial, trade, and shipping center under the "one country, two systems" principle, facilitating the free flow of capital, goods, and information [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - Global supply and demand for commodities, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, traditional energy, and new energy materials, are undergoing profound changes driven by geopolitical factors, technological transformation, and green transition [1] - China is a major consumer and import-export market for commodities, pushing for high-quality development and increased investment in green industries, highlighting its advantages in building a commodity resource allocation hub [1] Group 3: Committee's Role and Focus - The Commodity Strategy Committee, chaired by the Financial Secretary, includes industry leaders from finance, trade, shipping, logistics, and professional services to study global commodity market trends [1] - The committee will provide specific recommendations on the positioning, planning, and promotion strategies for Hong Kong's commodity market [1]

Group 1: New Productive Forces - Semiconductor/GPU: Companies like Wallen Technology (upcoming IPO with 800 million orders) and Moore Threads (full-function GPU roadmap) are positioned to benefit from the explosive demand for AI computing power and the production of 2nm chips, which will drive industry upgrades and address critical supply chain issues [2] - Humanoid Robots: Companies such as Zhongyuan Neipei (collaborating with Ningbo Puzhi on core robot components) are entering the market as embodied intelligence accelerates, with the potential for large-scale industrial production following positive endorsements from figures like Elon Musk [2] - Controlled Nuclear Fusion/Quantum Technology: Focus on upstream material and equipment suppliers in these key areas supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," which presents a trillion-level market opportunity due to technological breakthroughs [2] Group 2: Consumer Recovery - Cultural and Tourism Consumption: Companies like Shaanxi Tourism (new stock subscription benefiting from tourism recovery) are expected to gain from the winter tourism market's warming and the lifting of firework bans, which will boost festive consumption [2] - Quality Consumer Goods: Export-oriented consumer companies are seeing a clear trend of domestic brands expanding overseas, supported by domestic demand policies that enhance profitability [2] Group 3: Profit Recovery - Manufacturing/Resource Products: Companies such as China Shenhua (asset restructuring and full coal and chemical industry chain) and Jinshi Resources (extending into fine fluorochemical downstream) are positioned to benefit from supply-demand optimization and stabilizing commodity prices, leading to a rebound in corporate profits [4] - Logistics/Infrastructure: Companies like Dongfang Zhizao (focused on smart logistics after a change in control) and Qingdao Port (expanding terminal capacity) are set to benefit from government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth and enhancing logistics efficiency [4]

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [1][2] Core Views - Production-side heat continues to decline, with continuous drops in coke oven, blast furnace, and asphalt开工率, stable PX and PTA开工率, and a slight decrease in semi-steel tire开工率 - Commodity housing transactions show marginal improvement, while land supply area seasonally and rapidly declines - Prices show marginal recovery, with increases in coking coal, copper, aluminum, and rebar prices, a continuous decline in crude oil prices, and agricultural products rising to recent highs - Residents' travel heat rebounds, with increases in the number of executed flights and the peak congestion index in first-tier cities. Short-term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][28] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 1.42 pct, blast furnace开工率 decreased by 0.16 pct, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons - Petroleum Asphalt:开工率 continued to decline by 0.2 pct at a low level - Chemicals: PX and PTA开工率 remained flat - Automobile Tires: All-steel tire开工率 increased by 0.07 pct, while semi-steel tire开工率 decreased by 0.18 pct [2][8] Demand - Real Estate: Commodity housing transaction area increased, and the inventory-to-sales ratio rose; land supply area declined from a high level to a low level, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 1.394 billion yuan compared to the previous week - Automobile: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 24,000 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 20,000 units - Shipping Freight Rates: The SCFI index increased by 3.08%, the CCFI index increased by 0.60%, and the BDI index continued to decline significantly by 8.25% [3][11][13] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel - Coking Coal: Futures prices increased by 7.92% to 1,110 yuan per ton - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +2.85%, +2.43%, and -2.12% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices increased by 1.43% - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.52%, and pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changing by +0.17%, -0.53%, -1.34%, and +1.59% respectively compared to the previous week [3][18][21] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: It increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai - Executed Flights: Both domestic and international flight volumes increased - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities increased [24][26]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Guangxi Dongfang Zhizao Technology Co., Ltd. will undergo a change in control, with the Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission becoming the new actual controller [1] - The share transfer agreement involves Guangxi Modern Logistics Group and its subsidiary acquiring 183 million shares from the current controlling shareholder at a price of 4 yuan per share, totaling 732 million yuan [1][2] - After the transfer, the current controlling shareholder's stake will decrease to 4.87%, and they will relinquish voting rights associated with those shares [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Zhizao operates in intelligent manufacturing and industrial park management, with reported revenue of 219 million yuan and a net profit of 1.33 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - Guangxi Modern Logistics, established in 1996, reported revenue of 47.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 101 million yuan in 2024, indicating strong financial capabilities [2] - The entry of state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance resource allocation and improve shareholder returns for Dongfang Zhizao [2][3] Group 3 - The relationship between local state-owned enterprises and listed companies is seen as complementary, providing stable funding and management expertise to enhance governance and risk resilience [3] - The change in control is anticipated to attract new productive forces to the region, promoting industrial upgrades and job creation [3] - The completion of the equity change is subject to approval from relevant authorities, indicating potential uncertainties in the implementation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for Free Trade Zones (FTZs) in China to act as pioneers in reform and development, promoting exploration in broader and deeper areas to achieve more results in reform and opening-up [1] - FTZs have introduced various institutional and policy outcomes this year, including relaxed market access policies, pilot programs for patent-intensive product insurance, and smart telecommunications quarantine models [1] - In the context of global value chain restructuring and rapid digital economy development, FTZs must establish dynamic international rule benchmarking mechanisms to adapt to changes and seize opportunities in higher-level openness [1] Group 2 - FTZs are tasked with promoting high-quality development and constructing a new development pattern, which involves strengthening the resilience of industrial and supply chains to support domestic and international dual circulation [2] - Systematic reforms are necessary to integrate policies, resources, and business processes around key industries, breaking down departmental barriers to form a systematic innovation ecosystem [2] - The establishment of interdisciplinary teams to tackle key technologies has led to significant breakthroughs, such as achieving autonomy in the main bearing of shield machines and advancing the remanufacturing system in the engineering machinery sector [2] Group 3 - FTZs should adjust their regional scope based on industrial development needs to enhance their ability to drive surrounding areas and improve the quality of international circulation [3] - Examples like the Xinjiang FTZ demonstrate the establishment of efficient logistics channels, while the Guangxi FTZ showcases automated container terminals connecting to 571 ports globally [3] - Collectively, the 22 FTZs contribute approximately one-fifth of the national foreign investment and total import-export volume, highlighting their significant role in the economy [3]

Group 1: Trade and Market Expansion - China's import and export to Belt and Road countries exceeded 21 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, accounting for over half of the national foreign trade total [1] - Exports to Belt and Road countries grew by 11.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall export growth rate, driven by high-end manufacturing products like chips and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry Growth - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach approximately 350.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% and a user base exceeding 680 million [2] - Domestic game developers have achieved over 100 billion yuan in overseas revenue for six consecutive years, with an expected overseas revenue of about 204.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10.2% increase [2] Group 3: International Business Developments - MiniMax reported revenues of 3.46 million USD in 2023, projected to grow to 30.52 million USD in 2024, and 53.44 million USD in the first nine months of 2025, with over 70% of revenue coming from international markets [3] - Xpeng Motors has initiated its third overseas localization production project in Malaysia, following projects in Indonesia and Austria, aiming for mass production by 2026 [4] Group 4: E-commerce and Logistics - Amazon is expanding its rapid delivery service in Brazil, with plans to add over 100 logistics centers by 2025, currently operating 250 centers [5] - SF Express Middle East signed a cooperation agreement with Oman Asyad Group to enhance cross-border transport and logistics innovation [10] Group 5: Global Brand Expansion - Mixue Ice Cream opened its first store in the Americas in Los Angeles, marking a significant step in its global strategy, with plans to increase its global store count to 53,014 by June 2025 [6][7] - Yuanji Cloud Dumplings opened its first store in Thailand, part of a strategy to integrate deeply into local markets, with a total of nine stores in Southeast Asia [8] Group 6: AI and Technology Collaboration - Alibaba Cloud and Aishi Technology signed a full-stack AI cooperation agreement to enhance AI video generation capabilities, with Aishi's platform PixVerse already serving over 100 million global users [9]