Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

| 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2291 | 2 | 0.09% | 24,184 | 73.19% | 106,578 | 6.82% | | C2505 | | 2317 | -2 | -0.09% | 3,148 | 13.28% | 13,234 | 13.47% | | C2509 | | 2408 | -1 | -0.04% | 495,033 | 32.83% | 994,996 | 3.72% | | CS2601 | | 2697 | 1 | 0.04% | 868 | 93.32% | 4,739 | 1.52% | | CS2505 | | 2709 | 2 | 0.07% | 17 | 376.47% | 159 | 8.16% | | CS2509 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | | 8060 | 20 | 0.25% | 16 | -27.27% | 109 | 3.81% | | PK510 | | 8230 | -16 | -0.19% | 49,164 | 2.00% | 120,940 | -0.39% | | PK601 | | 8022 | -20 | -0.25% | 858 | -9.68% | 4,772 | 0.48% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | ...

Core Insights - Delays at key Indian ports have led to postponed unloading, resulting in a four-month low in soybean oil imports, raising questions about potential impacts on palm oil imports [1] Group 1 - Indian port delays are causing significant disruptions in the supply chain, particularly affecting soybean oil imports [1] - The current soybean oil import volume has reached its lowest level in four months, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The implications of these delays on palm oil imports remain uncertain, suggesting a need for further monitoring [1]

半年度报告-美豆&豆粕 等待驱动，价格运行中枢上移 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： [Table_Summary] ★美豆 25/26 年度平衡表或趋紧 迄今为止美豆主产区天气良好，但7-8月才是决定单产的关键时期。 EPA 政策利好美豆压榨，但受限于产能、美豆压榨继续上调的空 间或有限；受特朗普政策影响，未来美豆出口变化可能很大，但预 计最坏情况也不会差于第一轮贸易战时期。我们测算美国 25/26 年 度平衡表大概率较上年度更紧张，这也就意味着 CBOT 大豆价格 震荡/震荡向上的概率更大。 ★预计豆粕价格运行中枢上移 农 产 品 CBOT 大豆震荡或震荡上行，而随着 7 月巴西玉米上市出口增加， 大豆出口将逐月递减，巴西出口 CNF 升贴水则将逐月抬升，两者 共同影响下国内进口大豆成本也将逐渐增加，对远月豆粕期价形成 支撑。现货供需上，当前豆粕处于季节性累库周期，但由于需求好 于预期，豆粕累库速度较慢。此外，国内豆粕压力最大的时候预计 出现在 7 月底-8 月，随后豆粕库存将出现拐点。如果我国 4 季度完 全不进口美豆，届时豆粕现货还可能出现紧缺。 ★后市展望 预计 CBOT 大豆难再跌破 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a decline, with soybean meal futures showing a notable drop in price, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Data - Argentina's soybean exports in May reached 1,224,096.07 tons, while soybean meal exports totaled 2,339,966.64 tons [2]. - On June 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume in major oil mills across the country was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 30,525 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 43,700 tons [2]. - As of June 12, the USDA reported that net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 160,000 tons, down from 215,000 tons the previous week, while net sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 14,000 tons, down from 47,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the current basis quote for soybean meal in Guangdong is -150, with weather conditions in key soybean-producing areas expected to be unfavorable for soybean growth in the coming weeks, leading to a potential short-term increase in soybean meal prices [3]. - According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report, as of June 8, 90% of the U.S. soybean planting was completed, compared to 84% the previous week and 86% the same time last year, with the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans dropping from 68% to 66% [3]. - Shengyin Wanguo Futures indicated that domestic oil mills have significantly increased their operating rates, which is expected to accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal stocks, while the cost support from imported soybeans suggests that soybean meal prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉出口数据强劲，棉花短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. It is recommended to use strategies like expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil and reverse arbitrage of 9 - 1 contracts. There is potential to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5][8]. - Soybean oil also has a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. There is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policy [7]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to adjust and fluctuate next week, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. - Corn is expected to run strongly. Although CBOT corn has fallen, wheat prices have risen and corn starch inventory has changed. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight [39][45]. - The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [69][71]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate. The policy of state reserve purchase provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. - The peanut market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [117][118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Due to the sudden positive news of US biodiesel obligation volume and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the palm oil 09 contract rose 4.86% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: June rainfall in Malaysia is expected to be dry, with production estimated to be 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. There is a risk that production from July to August may be lower than last year. Exports are strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. The US biodiesel policy is positive for the international oil market. However, if production in Malaysia and Indonesia remains strong from July to August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August to September. It is recommended to use spread strategies in the short term and consider going long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel obligation volume and the Middle East situation, the soybean oil 09 contract rose 4.75% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The EPA's significant increase in the 2026 biomass diesel RVO is positive for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. Inventory may peak in July, and there is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. Domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly volatile. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week but were higher than expected. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week. Domestic soybean meal had high - volume trading in the far - month basis, and the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybean auction was fully successful [17]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of June 20. In the futures market, the price broke through and rose. The basis of the main contract weakened [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell due to increased rainfall in the US Midwest. Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions were suspended. Corn starch inventory decreased. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [41][45]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: In the international market, the net long position of funds in the New York raw sugar decreased significantly. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups decreased, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose. The 24/25 sugar - making season in China had an increase in production and sales [69][70]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [71][102]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs was strongly volatile. The supply was tight, and the demand was slightly improved compared with the beginning of the month. The futures price of live pigs was also strongly volatile [103][104]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The state reserve purchase policy provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts rose, but the momentum for continuous price increase was insufficient. The futures price fluctuated [117]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [118].

油料周报 | 2025-06-22 作物生长期，关注天气波动 大豆市场分析 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，本周豆一主力合约2509收盘价4259元/吨，环比上涨18元.涨幅0.4%。现货方面，巴彦地区食用豆现货 基差A09-79，较上周下跌18；宝清地区食用豆基差A09-19，较上周下跌18；富锦地区食用豆现货基差A09-19， 较上周下跌18；尚志地区食用豆现货基差A09-119，较上周下跌18。 到港预估：Mysteel农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估，2025年6月巴西大豆对中国到港1017万吨，阿根 廷大豆对中国到港56万吨，美国大豆对中国到港为14万吨，共计1086万吨.国产大豆市场大豆库存持续消耗，大 部分地区贸易商基本售罄。但近期东北地区省储大量流入市场，供应紧张有所缓解。 市场分析 本周大商所豆一期货主力2509合约价格先扬后抑，截止6月19日主力收盘价4233元/吨，周线上涨35元/吨、涨幅 0.83%。东北地区大豆价格平稳运行，筛粮价格并无太大变化。近期随着地方储备大豆陆续流入市场，一定程度 缓解供应紧张情况。长江、黄河产区大豆毛粮价格稳中有涨、净粮基本稳定，农户播种剩余豆源质优价高， ...