Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid decline in coal prices and emphasizes the upcoming summer electricity peak demand, which is expected to drive coal demand upward [3][4]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of May 16, the coal inventory at the Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons, a 0.93% increase week-on-week and a 48.15% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [6]. - The coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports stood at 32.53 million tons, a 1.57% decrease week-on-week but a 33.72% increase year-on-year, also at a record high for this time of year [6]. - The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 619 yuan/ton for the week of May 11-16, down 19 yuan/ton (-3.05%) from the previous week [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Production - The summer electricity peak is approaching, which is expected to seasonally increase coal demand, necessitating attention to the extent of the demand surge during the peak season [3]. - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants (approximately 50% of national washing capacity) was 62.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and a 5.8 percentage points decrease year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [5]. - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 26.99°C, which is at the median for the same period [5]. Group 3: Other Commodity Prices - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit (5800 kcal) was 491 yuan/ton for the week, down 19 yuan/ton (-3.73%) [4]. - The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia (5500 kcal) was $69/ton, a 0.71% decrease [4]. - The settlement price for European natural gas futures (DUTCH TTF) was €35/MWh, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - The Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $65.41/barrel, up 2.35% [4].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks has been notable since early April, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices from April 8 to May 16 [3] - Historical patterns, incremental capital, risk factors, fundamentals, and trading indicators suggest that this divergence may converge in the future [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and REITs - From May 12 to May 16, the secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China showed a trend of oscillating upward, with the weighted REITs index closing at 137.87 and a weekly return of 1.7% [4] - The trading volume of public REITs for the week was 2.442 billion yuan, with warehouse logistics REITs leading in average daily turnover compared to other categories [4] Group 3: Banking Sector - In Q1 2025, commercial banks in China reported a net profit of 656.8 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate decline of 2.3% and an average capital return rate of 8.82% [5] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.51%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of the previous year, indicating overall stability in asset quality [5] Group 4: Chemical and Transportation Industry - In Q1 2025, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group announced price adjustments for carbon fiber products, with increases of 5,000 yuan per ton for 3K/6K products and 3,000 yuan per ton for other grades [6] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock - The sentiment in the pig farming sector is easing, with current inventory levels remaining relatively high, indicating a potential turning point in inventory levels that may lead to a long-term profit upcycle post-deinventory [7] Group 6: Coal Mining - As of May 16, coal inventories at ports in the Bohai Rim reached 32.533 million tons, down 1.57% week-on-week but up 33.72% year-on-year, indicating high inventory levels [8] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port averaged 619 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton (-3.05%) for the week, with seasonal demand expected to rise as summer electricity consumption peaks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are accelerating downward, with a focus on the demand boost during the summer electricity peak [1] - High coal inventory levels are contributing to the price decline, and a recovery in demand is necessary for price stabilization [4] - The report suggests a defensive approach to the current sector, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 16, the inventory of coal at ports in the Bohai Rim is 32.53 million tons, down 1.57% week-on-week but up 33.72% year-on-year, at a record high for the same period [1][4] - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port (5500 kcal weekly average) is 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants is 62.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [3] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.447 million tons, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 3.3% year-on-year [3] Key Company Financials - China Shenhua: EPS forecast for 2025 is 2.5 RMB, with a PE ratio of 16 [5] - China Coal Energy: EPS forecast for 2025 is 1.31 RMB, with a PE ratio of 8 [5] - Shanxi Coking Coal: EPS forecast for 2025 is 0.37 RMB, with a PE ratio of 17 [5] Inventory Tracking - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port is 7.6 million tons, up 0.93% week-on-week and up 48.15% year-on-year [4] - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory is 7.5256 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供需疲弱，港口库存仍处高位，煤价震荡运 行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 614 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量175.69万吨，环比上周减少28.54 万吨，降幅 1.10%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有下降。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 181.79 万吨，环比上周增加 7.39 万吨，增幅 4.23%；日均锚地船舶共 46 艘，环比上周增加 3 艘，增幅 7.59%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3292.41 万吨，环比上周增加 89.13 万吨，增幅 2.78%。港口本周日均调出量环比略有增加，受部分电厂补 库需求影响。库存端略有增加，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求淡季影响， 煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the issue of coal gangue being dumped in agricultural land in Baiqiang Village, Henan Province, which has raised concerns about soil and groundwater contamination [1][6] - Local authorities have identified 12 sites where coal gangue has been dumped, primarily affecting five villages in the Zhengcun Town area [6][7] - The coal gangue, a byproduct of coal mining and washing, is described as a solid waste material that may contain harmful substances, raising questions about its impact on agricultural productivity and environmental safety [7][9] Group 2 - Villagers have reported that the presence of coal gangue has negatively affected crop yields, with some farmers stating that their land is no longer suitable for farming due to insufficient soil cover and nutrient deficiencies [3][9] - The local government has initiated measures to address the issue, including the removal of illegal coal washing plants and the implementation of soil remediation efforts [6][10] - There are ongoing assessments to determine the extent of groundwater contamination and the effectiveness of soil remediation, with plans for systematic restoration based on the findings [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term balance in supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rise, with historical patterns suggesting a potential turning point in consumption by late May as the summer electricity demand season approaches [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 618 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.3 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1350 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 1.20 million tons/day (-0.39%), while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7.10 million tons/day (+4.09%) [3][48] - The chemical industry’s coal consumption decreased by 22.31 thousand tons/day (-3.11%) [11] Inventory Situation - As of May 15, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 337 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 26 thousand tons [48] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 0.20 days, while it decreased by 0.80 days in coastal provinces [48] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.65% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [14] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with stable operations and strong performance [12][13]