Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for RU and NR: Cautiously bullish [5] - Investment rating for BR: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, expected raw material output is limited due to increased rainfall in major production areas, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to remain strong this week [5] - For BR, supply may increase slightly, downstream demand lacks highlights, and it may follow raw materials to weaken, but is affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [6] Group 3: Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,620 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Qingdao Bonded Area Thai mixed rubber at 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area at 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,755 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price at 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price at 11,700 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Market Information - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in June 2025 would drop 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase 0.7% to 1.271 million tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of 2025, global natural rubber cumulative production was expected to drop 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, and cumulative consumption would increase 1% to 7.715 million tons [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased 5% to 3.15 million [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 11, 2025, RU basis - 1,005 yuan/ton (- 5), RU main and mixed rubber spread 1,175 yuan/ton (+ 5), smoked sheet rubber import profit - 3,686 yuan/ton (+ 54.82), NR basis 269 yuan/ton (- 32); whole latex 14,750 yuan/ton (+ 200), mixed rubber 14,580 yuan/ton (+ 200), 3L spot 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 150); STR20 quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (+ 25), whole latex and 3L spread - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0); mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene spread 2,480 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet 61.96 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.76), Thai glue 54.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0), Thai cup lump 48.65 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai glue - cup lump 5.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30) [4] -开工率: Full - steel tire operating rate 60.06% (+ 0.80%), semi - steel tire operating rate 69.71% (- 0.27%) [4] - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory 1,288,849 tons (- 4,853), Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory 619,852 tons (- 11,918), RU futures inventory 176,280 tons (- 1,350), NR futures inventory 42,235 tons (+ 2,519) [4] Group 6: Market Analysis - BR - Spot and spreads: On August 11, 2025, BR basis - 185 yuan/ton (- 120), butadiene Sinopec ex - factory price 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 200), Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 250), Shandong private BR at 11,550 yuan/ton (+ 200), BR Northeast Asia import profit - 1,154 yuan/ton (+ 95) [4][5] -开工率: High - cis BR operating rate 68.17% (- 4.30%) [5] - Inventory: BR trader inventory 7,290 tons (- 230), BR enterprise inventory 24,150 tons (+ 350) [5] Group 7: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. With increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is expected to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to remain strong this week [5] - For BR, it is neutral. Supply may increase slightly, downstream demand lacks highlights, and it may follow raw materials to weaken, but is affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of consolidation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.25% to 15760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly declined 0.17% to 11720 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term开工环比回升，聚酯负荷小幅提升，库存累积，基差偏弱，现货加工费低；PX国内开工小幅回升，海外检修重启并存，开工小幅回落，PXN环比走强。 TA低加工费下额外检修增加，需求端长丝产销乏力但难减产，瓶片低开工去库，聚酯开工预计走稳并向上，供需有望改善，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - **MEG**: 近端国内装置部分推迟重启，开工基本持稳，海外意外检修，周内到港回升发货平稳预计港口库存累积，下游备货回升，基差持稳，油制效益修复。短期累库压力不大，港口库存预计偏低，远月检修回归与新装置投产有累库预期，估值受成本影响大，偏宽幅震荡，关注卫星重启进度 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 近端华西提负，开工小幅回升至90.6%，产销持稳，库存累积。需求端涤纱开工持稳，原料备货维持，成品库存去化，效益修复。下游开工后续或抬升，短纤供应可能提升，盘面加工费低，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: 主要矛盾是全国显性库存持稳，无季节性去化，泰国杯胶价格反弹，降雨影响割胶，策略为观望 [2] - **Styrene**: 相关产品价格有一定变化，如乙烯、纯苯等价格波动，国产利润也有不同程度变动 [2] 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, crude oil price remained at 66.6, PX price decreased by 3, PTA price increased by 70, PX processing margin increased by 7, polyester gross profit decreased by 2.8, and PTA basis increased by 5 [2] - **Device Changes**: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2] MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, Northeast Asia ethylene price increased by 5, MEG external price increased by 4, MEG internal price increased by 19, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 19 [2] - **Device Changes**: Shanxi Wouneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, short - fiber profit was stable, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber increased by 40 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of US - dollar Thai standard increased by 60, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 430, and the price of RU main contract increased by 1390 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, ethylene price remained stable, pure benzene price remained stable in some cases, and styrene CFR China price increased by 3 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector is experiencing a strong oscillation pattern, driven by macroeconomic improvements and supply-demand dynamics in the domestic market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 saw a slight rebound, increasing by 1.88% to close at 15,440 yuan/ton, followed by a further rise of 1.39% to 15,715 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic rubber market has shifted to a phase of fundamental supply-demand competition as geopolitical risk premiums have subsided [2]. - The macroeconomic environment has improved significantly, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve developments, including the nomination of Stephen Moore, which is perceived as a signal for potential interest rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Supply Factors - Continuous rainfall in major domestic and international rubber-producing regions has led to lower raw material output, supporting high raw material prices [3]. - The average price of domestic natural rubber increased month-on-month in July, with Yunnan and Hainan regions seeing rises of nearly 600 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton, respectively [3]. - Labor shortages in Thailand are impacting rubber tapping progress, with plans to introduce foreign labor to alleviate the situation [3]. Group 3: Demand Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and the postponement of tariffs have improved export demand, while domestic automotive production and sales have stabilized [4]. - Heavy truck sales from January to July 2025 reached 603,000 units, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, which boosts demand confidence [4]. - The market sentiment regarding demand has improved, with downstream companies actively purchasing raw materials due to low inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rubber sector's negative sentiment has been released after significant prior declines, with expectations for Shanghai rubber futures to perform strongly [4]. - Short-term predictions indicate that rubber raw material prices will remain firm, with stable demand and inventory levels [4]. - The ongoing rainy weather and rising raw material prices in Thailand are expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern for Shanghai rubber futures in August [4][5]. Group 5: Synthetic Rubber - The operational logic for synthetic rubber mirrors that of Shanghai rubber, with no significant improvements in its fundamentals [5]. - Supply-demand balance for synthetic rubber is relatively stable, but prices are more influenced by changes in raw material butadiene prices [5]. - A tightening supply situation for butadiene is anticipated to persist, leading to a similar strong oscillation outlook for synthetic rubber futures [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The rubber sector is currently experiencing a strong oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract rebounding slightly, up 1.88% to 15440 yuan/ton, and further increasing by 1.39% to 15715 yuan/ton on August 11 [1] - The main driving factor for the strong performance in the domestic rubber market is the improvement in the macroeconomic environment, particularly due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2: Supply Factors - Domestic and international rubber-producing regions are currently in the rainy season, leading to lower raw material output than normal seasonal levels, which supports raw material prices [2] - Data shows that the average price of natural rubber in China increased month-on-month in July, with Yunnan and Hainan regions seeing increases of nearly 600 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Progress in US-China trade negotiations and the postponement of tariffs have improved export demand, while domestic automobile production and sales growth remain stable [3] - Heavy truck sales from January to July 2025 reached 603,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, significantly higher than the previous year's 8% growth, adding confidence to demand [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The rubber sector's negative sentiment has been released after significant declines, and with supportive factors, the Shanghai rubber futures prices are expected to trend strongly [3] - Short-term expectations indicate that raw material prices will remain firm, with demand recovering and inventory levels stable, leading to a forecast of strong oscillation for Shanghai rubber futures [3][4] Group 5: Synthetic Rubber - The operational logic for synthetic rubber has been similar to that of Shanghai rubber, with no marginal improvement in its fundamentals, and price fluctuations being relatively small [4] - The supply-demand balance for synthetic rubber is relatively stable, but prices are more influenced by changes in the raw material butadiene, which is currently experiencing a tightening supply situation [4]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11785 | 270 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 28088 | 2463 | | | 合成橡胶9-10价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 0 | -15 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | | | 11600 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11550 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 11600 | 0 | 11550 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -85 | -120 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格(日,美元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term: NR is rated neutral, while RU is rated slightly bullish [4] - Medium to long-term: RU is rated slightly bearish, and NR is rated slightly bearish [4] - RU9-1 spread: Slightly bearish [4] - RU-NR spread: Neutral [4] - Production area weather: Neutral [4] - Thai supply: Neutral [4] - Domestic supply: Slightly bullish [4] - Tires: Neutral [4] - Dairy products: Neutral [4] - Social inventory: RU is slightly bullish, and NR is slightly bullish [4] - Futures inventory: RU is neutral, and NR is neutral [4] - Non-standard spread: Slightly bearish [4] Core Views - As of August 5, RU and NR prices declined; the RU-NR spread first narrowed and then widened; the spreads of RU09-01, NR continuous one - continuous two, and continuous two - continuous three widened [4] - RU: Spot offers adjusted downward following the market, with prices falling from highs (bearish). Continuous rainfall in domestic main production areas disrupted tapping operations, supporting rubber prices (bullish). Light-colored rubber inventories continued to decline (bullish). It is expected that RU prices will fluctuate with an upward bias this week [4] - NR: In Southeast Asian main production areas, local heavy rainfall limited raw material output, supporting the stabilization of latex prices (bullish). Exports of all-steel and semi-steel tires decreased (bearish), and the operating rate dropped significantly (bearish). End-of-month shipments led to a decline in finished product inventories. It is predicted that NR prices will fluctuate widely this week [4] Summary by Related Catalogs New Energy Vehicle Development and Tire Demand - By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles. By 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for 20% of total new vehicle sales. The production and sales of new energy passenger and commercial vehicles will increase rapidly, with the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles rising from 8% to 18%, boosting tire matching demand [7] - Semi-steel tires: Benefit from the booming new energy vehicle sales and policy incentives (such as trade-ins), with good matching demand. All-steel tires: Mainly constrained by factors such as the sluggish real estate market, with long-term pressured demand. The replacement demand from 2020 - 2021 remains to be released [16] Inventory Status - As of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.35%. Bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.47% [29] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.66%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01%, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85% [29] - In previous years, inventory reduction started from April - May, but this year, inventory increased from June - July and only started to decline slightly recently [29] - As of August 3, the social inventory of light-colored rubber was 455,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.82%. The social inventory of dark-colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12% [4] Tire Operating Rate - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' all-steel tires was 61.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 3.94% [43] - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' semi-steel tires was 74.45%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.42%. Some enterprises scheduled maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall operating rate. End-of-month shipments led to lower finished product inventories [45] Production Area Conditions - Precipitation was concentrated in Northeast China, with a minor impact. Attention should be paid to the situation after the ceasefire of the Thailand-Cambodia conflict [57] - In the Vietnamese production area, there was still local rainfall interference, but overall output showed a seasonal increase. In July 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports were 206,200 tons, an increase of 62,300 tons month-on-month, a 43.27% month-on-month increase, and a 10.82% year-on-year increase. From January - July, Vietnam's cumulative natural rubber exports were 903,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.95%. Tapping started in mid-April, and the peak production period is from July - November [65] - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions were normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, overseas main production areas would continue to increase supply, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons; among them, Thailand will increase by 1.2%, Indonesia will decrease by 9.8%, Malaysia will decrease by 4.2%, Vietnam will decrease by 1.3%, China will increase by 6%, India will increase by 5.6%, and other countries will increase by 3.5% [68] - In July, four typhoons landed in China, and the phased rainfall in the production areas affected the tapping rhythm. The China Meteorological Administration predicted that in August, 4 - 5 typhoons are expected to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, fewer than the normal period (5.6). 2 - 3 typhoons are expected to land or significantly affect China (2.3 landings in the normal period) [73] Price and Spread Conditions - As of August 5, the price of Shanghai Vietnam 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai state-owned whole milk was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai RSS3 was 19,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous week [93] - As of August 5, the RU-NR spread was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. With rainfall interference in Yunnan's main production area in China and the arrival of the peak production period in Southeast Asian main production areas, the spread is expected to continue to widen [4][106][107] - As of August 5, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract narrowed to -245 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the Thai mixed spot market, after the previous rubber price increase, arbitrage positions actively increased. During the period, the rubber price declined, and arbitrage positions were less willing to sell at low prices. The decline in the spot price was less than that of RU, and the basis narrowed month-on-month [123] - As of August 5, the RU09-01 spread was -915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The RU01-05 spread was -85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous one - continuous two spread was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous two - continuous three spread was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week [131]

8月7日，产业强国——上期"强源助企"产融服务基地丁二烯橡胶产业链交流会在宁波成功举办。本次交流会由中哲物产集团有限公司主办、银河期货有限公 司协办，吸引了丁二烯橡胶产业链上中下游近60家企业的百余名核心决策层及业务骨干参会，覆盖炼化生产、贸易流通、下游制造等全链条环节。 会上，来自上期所、中哲物产、银河期货的行业专家围绕2025年下半年宏观经济展望、丁二烯橡胶期货及期权品种运用情况、丁二烯产业链格局及BR橡胶 展望等核心议题展开深度分享，内容兼具市场数据分析与实操指导价值。圆桌论坛环节，参会嘉宾聚焦丁二烯和丁二烯橡胶市场价格波动规律、产能扩张与 供需平衡、全球贸易流向变迁等行业焦点，进行了产业对话。嘉宾们普遍肯定丁二烯橡胶期货期权在产业中的功能发挥，认为其为企业应对价格波动提供了 有效工具，同时，期货期权的上市也为产业提供了重要的定价参考，助力企业更好地把握市场节奏，在产能扩张与供需平衡调节中发挥了积极作用。 此次会议不仅为企业提供了详实的行业数据与前沿专业见解，深度剖析产业发展趋势，更搭建起高效的交流研讨平台。与会嘉宾普遍认为，跨行业的思维碰 撞有效打破了信息壁垒，提高了产业链上下游的协同认知，践行了"金 ...

Group 1 - The revenue composition of Sanwei Co. for the year 2024 is as follows: BDO and calcium carbide account for 32.86%, polyester fiber accounts for 32.56%, rubber industry accounts for 26.18%, rail transit accounts for 4.78%, and others account for 3.36% [1] Group 2 - Sanwei Co. announced on August 11 that the implementation period for its share buyback plan will expire on August 10, 2025. During this period, Mr. Wu Shanguo has cumulatively increased his shareholding by approximately 2.51 million shares, representing 0.243% of the company's total share capital, with a total investment of about 31 million yuan, exceeding the lower limit of the buyback plan of 30 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. Although the terminal demand has improved recently, the supply side is under pressure due to better weather in major production areas and falling raw material prices. With the decline in social and Qingdao total inventories of natural rubber last week and the continuous rebound of the rubber futures market after releasing negative sentiment, it is expected that the market will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [8][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2509 to RU2601. The price of RU2601 ranged from 15,075 to 15,645 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending and volatile movement with a slight overall increase. As of the close on August 8, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,550 yuan/ton, up 390 points or 2.57% for the week [13]. Spot Price - As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton from the previous week [17][20]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded significantly compared to the previous week, mainly due to the change of the main contract last week. As of August 8, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,050 yuan/ton, an expansion of 960 yuan/ton from the previous week. Both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with the domestic price showing a more obvious increase due to the contract change [24][27]. Important Market Information - Cambodia and Thailand reached a cease - fire agreement on August 7. - Morgan Chase expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and may announce a new Fed chair soon. He also plans to raise tariffs on India and announce drug and chip tariffs. - The US trade deficit in June decreased by 16% month - on - month. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, while the S&P Global services PMI reached a new high since December 2024. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook. - China's July CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, and PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. - From January to July, the total land acquisition amount of China's top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 34.3% year - on - year. - In July, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities increased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the average price of second - hand homes decreased by 0.77% month - on - month. - In July, China's passenger car retail sales reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. - The preliminary estimate of new - energy passenger car wholesale sales in July was 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. - In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. - In July, China's heavy - truck sales were about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 42%, and the cumulative sales from January to July increased by about 11% year - on - year [29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the production in Thailand increased significantly compared to the previous month, while that in China, Vietnam, and India increased slightly. The production in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia decreased marginally. The total production of major natural - rubber producing countries in June 2025 was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic - rubber production was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [41][46][50][54]. Demand - side Situation - As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.35%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 61%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%. The monthly sales were 2.9045 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 units, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire - casing production was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [56][59][62][68][71][76]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 8, 2025, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 176,280 tons, a decrease of 1,350 tons from the previous week. - As of August 3, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%, and that of light - colored rubber was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%, and the general - trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47% [85]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: It is currently the peak supply season for global natural rubber. The weather in Southeast Asian main production areas has improved, and rainfall in domestic production areas has decreased, leading to continuous new - rubber production and pressure on the supply side. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly. The finished - product inventory of semi - steel tires was much higher than the same period last year, at a historical high, and the inventory - reduction speed of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, with a slight year - on - year increase. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Heavy - truck sales in July decreased by 15% month - on - month but increased by 42% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber - tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales in China were about 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 11%. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's natural - rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory both decreased slightly [86]. 后市展望 - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. There is pressure on the supply side due to better weather in major production areas and increased imports in July. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly, but the terminal automobile market showed some positive signs. With the decline in inventory, the rubber futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [87]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural - rubber futures will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, consider taking long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for band trading; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [89].