专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 债券市场研究系列 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 姚姝冰 shbyao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 2025 年债市政策复盘：创新性与规范化并 举，债市开放再谱新篇，2026-2-4 "十五五"开局下的信用债图景：2026 年 趋势与策略，2025-12-25 违约与展期"双降"下的债市评级调整新 动向，2025-9-9 多空博弈之下，债市风险知多少？—一季 度债市信用风险新特征与关注点，2025-5-6 潜流暗动，聚焦局部——当前债券市场信 用风险表现、特征及展望，2024-11-11 转债风波与地产困局下的信用风险关注— —三大视角透视信用风险半年报，2024-7- 25 融资温和回暖、趋势行情难现，关注长债 供给增加带来的结构性机会-2024 年一季度 信用债市场运行回顾与展望，2024-4-30 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.17% and a total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market experienced gains, with sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, short drama games, optical fiber, CPO, dyes, cultivated diamonds, semiconductors, and computing power leasing leading the gains, while sectors like liquor, oil and gas, and banking lagged behind [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 3.1%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.4%, and the STAR Market 50 Index was up by 2.0%, indicating a broad-based rally in the market [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the power equipment, communication, and electronics sectors, which together account for nearly 60% [4] - The STAR Market 50 Index is composed of 50 stocks from the STAR Market with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring "hard technology" leaders, with semiconductors making up over 65% and combined with medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment accounting for nearly 80% [4]

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

省就业部门有关负责人介绍，此次对接会将汇聚省内逾200家优质企业，涵盖央国企、事业单位、 民营企业以及外资企业等，提供的岗位，覆盖金融、医药、教育、互联网、旅游、食品、农牧、商贸等 诸多行业。 有求职意向者，届时请携带个人简历等材料，前往省人力资源开发局海口江东公共招聘服务大厅 (海口市美兰区美灵南五路公交站对面)选择心仪岗位，与用人单位相关负责人面对面洽谈。 据悉，此次对接会将依托海南省公共招聘网同步打造24小时运行的"云招聘"平台，常态化征集各类 型人才岗位。(记者 易宗平) 我省将举办2026年春节返乡人才对接会 汇聚省内逾200家优质企业 2月27日(农历正月十一)10时至14时，由省委、省政府主办的海南省2026年春节返乡人才对接会将 在海口举行。 此次对接会服务对象包括省内有人才需求的各类用人单位、省内外高校毕业生，以及有意投身海南 自贸港建设的各类社会人才。 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In January 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection reached 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 400 billion yuan compared to December 2025, indicating a supportive stance on liquidity [3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in January 2026 totaled 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 600 billion yuan, with significant growth in government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds [4] - The bond market outlook suggests that if the liquidity remains stable, interest rate bonds may show a strong oscillation pattern, with a focus on 3-year bonds and ultra-long-term bonds for potential gains [5] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is seeing a concentration of performance forecasts, with key developments including the approval of new drugs and significant partnerships among companies [10][11] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index saw a decline of 0.97% in the week of January 30 to February 5, 2026, with the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio at 51.01 times, reflecting a 261% premium over the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, as well as monitoring companies that are expected to show a turnaround in performance [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility due to global risk asset fluctuations, with significant inflows from foreign and southbound investors driving traditional sectors like agriculture, food and beverage, and transportation to strengthen [1] Fundamental Analysis - Non-financial earnings expectations have been revised upwards, particularly in the semiconductor (4.8%/1.5%), pharmaceutical (1.9%/1.2%), and real estate (0.7%/0.9%) sectors over the past four weeks and one week respectively [2] - The toy sector saw a 1.0%/0.4% upward revision in earnings expectations, while the food and beverage sector experienced a downward revision of 0.4%/1.1% [2] Capital Flow - As of Wednesday, foreign net inflows into Hong Kong stocks amounted to $1.88 billion, down from $2.80 billion the previous week, with active foreign inflows at $420 million and passive inflows at $1.47 billion [3] - Southbound net inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 56 billion, significantly up from HKD 2.7 billion the prior week, with media, real estate, non-bank financials, transportation, and banking sectors seeing the highest net inflows [3] Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong stock sentiment index stood at 63.8, indicating an optimistic outlook, with net inflows from southbound funds and buying intensity showing further recovery [4] - Despite recent market volatility, there has been no significant adjustment in positions, suggesting that investor sentiment remains resilient [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus should be on semiconductor hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a continued emphasis on resource stocks, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks in the medium term [5]

2月7日，北京市市场监管工作会议召开。北京青年报记者从会上获悉，2025年及"十四五"时期，北京市 场监管事业成效显著，经营主体活力充分迸发，发展质量连续三年位居全国第一；2026年，全市市场监 管部门将聚焦改革、监管、服务等方面精准发力，为"十五五"开好局、起好步筑牢坚实基础。 去年新设经营主体38.01万户 2025年，北京市场监管领域多点突破，交出亮眼成绩单。经营主体实现量质齐升，全年新设经营主体 38.01万户，截至年底总量达286.97万户，同比增长6.83%，科技型企业占比超四成，近三年企业存活率 均在75%以上，经营主体发展质量连续三年全国第一。 营商环境改革持续深化，北京全国首发经营主体登记注册服务系列地方标准，首创股权信托财产登记服 务新模式，推出20条经营场所登记新规，信用修复"云服务"让8万户次经营主体实现"无感修复"。数智 化转型步伐加快，市场监管数据总量突破61亿条，AI助手提供7×24小时智能咨询，非现场检查量占比 达70.6%，监管效能大幅提升。 安全监管防线不断夯实，食品安全全链条监管机制更加健全，药品全生命周期管理系统顺利上线，特种 设备"一台一码"管理模式基本实现全覆盖。产 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector showed significant recovery on February 6, with innovative drugs experiencing a rebound, particularly the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880), which rose by nearly 2% after opening lower [1][8] - Notable stocks included Nocera Health, which surged over 12%, projecting revenues of 2.37 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 134%, and an expected net profit of around 630 million yuan, marking its first profit [1][8] Group 2: Company Performance - Companies such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and CanSino Biologics also reported profitability, with net profit forecasts exceeding 100% year-on-year growth [1][8] - Ark Health announced a profit forecast of 7 to 10 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses, and raised approximately 144.3 million HKD to accelerate the development of its AI-driven chronic disease management platform [3][10] Group 3: ETF Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) are highlighted as effective investment vehicles, with the former focusing entirely on innovative drug development companies, where the top ten weighted stocks account for over 73% [6][12] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) has shown strong performance, with 9 out of 10 disclosed component stocks expected to report profits, and several companies projected to double their net profits year-on-year [3][10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 春节前A 股短期走势对节后行情可能有一定影响。2010 年以来的16 年中，有9次春节前5 个交易日内上 证综指走强（弱）而节后1 个交易日上证综指下跌（上涨）；有12 次节前5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌与 节后5 个交易日内涨跌同向。 春季行情未完，春节期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）今年春节期间经济和盈利预期可能改善。 一是春节出行、消费数据可能偏好。二是今年春节地产销售可能有所回暖：首先，低基数效应下今年春 节期间地产销售同比增速可能有所回升；其次，各地刺激地产销售的政策预期较强，春节假期期间地产 销售可能延续回暖趋势。（2）春节期间流动性可能维持宽松。一是春节期间宏观流动性可能维持宽 松：首先，海外方面，2 月11 日美国1 月CPI 数据将公布，2 月17 日美国零售数据将披露，预计美元指 数可能继续维持低位震荡，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘有限；其次，国内方面，春节前流动性季节性 紧张下央行可能加大净投放力度。二是春节前 ...

中新网北京2月7日电 (记者 吕少威)记者7日从北京全市市场监管工作会议上获悉，今年北京将重点查处 公用事业、平台经济等领域垄断行为，深入治理假冒伪劣、虚假宣传、低价倾销、违法广告等突出问 题，形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。 会议指出，今年北京将深化改革创新，打造一流首都营商环境。深化经营场所登记改革，推广住所标准 化登记模式。拓展电子营业执照应用，推动证照数据互联互通。加快出台公司登记地方标准。深入推进 餐饮店"高效办成一件事"，助力餐饮业蓬勃发展。 会议提到，去年北京新设经营主体38.01万户，截至去年底，经营主体达286.97万户，同比增长6.83%， 科技型企业占比超四成。近三年企业存活率均在75%以上，经营主体发展质量连续三年全国第一。 去年，北京信用修复"云服务"上线，8万户次经营主体实现信用"无感修复"。开展涉企违规收费专项整 治，督促退费1.08亿元，有效减轻企业负担。完善"扫码检查"机制，扫码率基本实现100%。全市非现场 检查量占比70.6%，监管质效显著提升。推进信用风险分类管理多场景运用，赋能精准监管。"无事不 扰"清单企业达55万户，开展"综合查一次"试点，企业负担明显减轻。 去 ...