1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, and the demand side shows weakening trends. The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The future focus is on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3]. - The PVC market was weak in the early part of the month, rebounded due to macro - sentiment, and then the macro - sentiment faded, with the overall supply - demand situation remaining weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policies [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis Strategy Analysis - **Caustic Soda**: The basis of caustic soda maintains a C - structure. The spot price first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The inventory is at a high level, and the basis is expected to continue to weaken. A reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. - **PVC**: The basis of PVC also shows a C - structure. After the price hit a new low, the supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the basis strengthened slightly. However, it is expected to weaken again in the future, and a reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price & Spread - In December, the spot price of caustic soda first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The high - level operation of production led to an oversupply situation and inventory accumulation. The demand from alumina is relatively stable, but the procurement price has been adjusted downward. Non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January [13]. 3.3 PVC Price & Spread - In December, the PVC price first fell and then rose. The high inventory led to a continuous decline in price, and the low price improved the supply - demand situation marginally. Macro - sentiment boosted the long - term demand expectation, but the overall supply - demand situation remained weak after the macro - sentiment faded [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been significantly reduced and is at a low level compared to the same period. The profit of PVC upstream raw materials is extremely compressed. The price of ethylene is expected to remain weak in January [52]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Supply - In December, new caustic soda production capacity was put into operation, and the overall supply remained at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises in January, and the supply is expected to remain high due to the good market conditions of liquid chlorine [70]. 3.6 Liquid Chlorine Price and Its Downstream Products - In December, the price of liquid chlorine increased. The downstream demand supported the price, but in January, the terminal demand of some downstream products entered the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [82]. 3.7 PVC Supply - The overall PVC output remained high in December. All new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant. There is no new domestic production capacity in 2026, and the overseas supply contraction in December 2025 provided a small support to the market sentiment [98]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The demand from alumina is expected to weaken in the long - term. The non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January, and the demand of various industries is expected to decline seasonally [110]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Import and Export - The main import sources of domestic liquid caustic soda in November were Singapore, Norway, and Germany, and the main export destinations were Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. The export orders remain normal [132]. 3.10 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PVC is weakening. The demand for pipes and profiles is affected by the sluggish real - estate market, while the film industry performs relatively well. The downstream demand is expected to decline further in January [145]. 3.11 PVC Import and Export - The BIS certification and anti - dumping duties of PVC in India have been cancelled, and the export expectation for 2026 is improving. The current PVC export maintains its resilience through price - for - volume strategy [156]. 3.12 Caustic Soda and PVC Inventory Data - The inventory of caustic soda increased in December due to factors such as production increase and weakening downstream demand. The PVC social inventory continued to increase, and the high - level futures warehouse receipts continued to suppress the PVC futures price [160].

烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

年度报告-烧碱 供需趋弱，成本托底 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 报告日期： ★供应：2026 年烧碱实际落地新产能预计有限，产量低速增长 能 源 2026 年烧碱计划投产产能依旧较多，但考虑到废盐处理及液氯消 化等问题，装置投产不确定性仍大，预计 2026 年烧碱产能增速或 仅在 3.3%附近。产量跟随产能投放节奏实现增长，但增速可能低 于产能投放速度。一方面，当前氯碱行业开工率已处于较高水平， 继续提升空间不大；另一方面，从氯碱平衡角度看，若烧碱长期维 持高开工，作为联产品的液氯将会面临下游需求承接不足所带来的 阶段性出货不畅压力，进而制约烧碱开工负荷。此外，考虑到下游 氧化铝对烧碱需求预计见顶，若未来氯碱利润恶化，企业生产积极 性受挫，氯碱工厂存在降负生产可能。我们预计 2026 年烧碱行业 平均开工负荷或有所下移，全年产量增速大致维持在 2.2%左右。 化 ★需求：氧化铝供应过剩压制烧碱内需弹性，出口增速放缓 工 2026 年仍是氧化铝投产大年，全年增产计划高达 1495 万吨/年。但 由于电解铝产能天花板已基本达到，随着新产能投放氧化铝供应过 剩加剧，未来面临较大的减产风险，或给烧碱价格带来负 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a state of weak supply - demand, with the impact of macro - sentiment weakening. The overall supply is abundant, downstream开工 is slightly decreasing, and the overall profit is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend. The supply side is at a high level of operation, and the non - aluminum demand is weakening. Attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine price, device maintenance dynamics, and the implementation of specific anti - involution rules on the macro side [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4810 yuan/ton (+33), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 270 yuan/ton (- 43) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4490 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 760 yuan/ton (+226), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 336 yuan/ton (+134), and the PVC export profit is - 16.1 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (- 2.2), the social PVC inventory is 51.4 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.7 tons (+4.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2273 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 76 yuan/ton (- 57) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 703 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1120 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1172 yuan/ton (- 20), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 564.7 yuan/ton (- 22.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 237.33 yuan/ton (- 22.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda operation rate is 86.00% (+1.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.14% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously - maintained enterprises have resumed production, with a slight increase in supply. All new PVC devices in 2025 have been put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operation rate has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises purchase on dips, and the trading volume is light when the price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the two festivals [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period [3]. - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end has been somewhat repaired due to the slight rebound of the caustic soda and PVC spot prices, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price has decreased, and the production profit is in a loss state; the semi - coke price has slightly decreased, and the profit is still in a loss state [3]. - Futures: The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period, and the hedging pressure on the futures price remains, continuously suppressing the PVC futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: As the devices resume production, the operation rate has slightly increased, and the overall operation is at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is still positive and does not drag down the chlor - alkali profit. The price of liquid chlorine is difficult to fall, resulting in the high - level operation of caustic soda. The downstream of Shandong liquid chlorine will reduce the load at the end of December, and the liquid chlorine price is expected to further decline, and the cost support may strengthen [3]. - Demand: The operation rate of alumina plants is relatively stable, and the purchase price is stable. Some alumina plants expect the purchase price of caustic soda to decrease next month. The operation rates of non - aluminum industries such as textile printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, and pulp have decreased, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Two stars, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is in a complex situation with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others have expectations of improvement in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term pressures [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Downstream polypropylene cost pressure eased slightly, but demand recovery was limited as some polypropylene plants were still shut down [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had narrow - range movements. For polyethylene, imports were increasing, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated. Port inventory was high, but supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range movement. Cost had no obvious positive impact, and there were expectations of supply - demand increase and inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX prices were driven up by strong expectations but deviated from downstream demand. PTA was mainly affected by PX, with expectations of low - load inventory reduction and margin repair [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased, and inventory increased. It was in a low - level fluctuation, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory was low, and it was in the off - season. Its price followed raw materials, and long - term supply - demand was relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was cost - driven with long - term overcapacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose sharply. Import volume was expected to decrease, and port inventory might enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spreads [6] - Urea prices were strongly volatile. Supply was tightening, but it might increase this week, and short - term prices might decline [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC had a slightly upward trend. Supply might increase, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. It was expected to move within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices were strong. Supply pressure was high, downstream demand growth was limited, and profit compression was expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were strong. Production was increasing, inventory was decreasing, but there was long - term supply - demand surplus. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash 05 [8] - Glass prices were strong. Capacity was being reduced, inventory pressure was high, and long - term capacity reduction was expected to reach a new balance [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently dominated by bearish factors. Supply is abundant while demand lacks highlights, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak and stable-to-declining oscillatory pattern next week [4]. - There is a high probability that the price of aluminum oxide will decline. The market supply is increasing with the outflow of expired warehouse receipts from Xinjiang, and the demand side has a high inventory level, reducing the need for further large - scale spot purchases [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply**: The supply pressure of the chlor - alkali industry remains. The operating rate of chlor - alkali plants is high, with the national sample enterprise operating load rate at 89.84% and a weekly output of 869,500 tons. Maintenance losses are decreasing, and there will be no large - scale maintenance except for a few enterprises in the future, indicating sufficient supply [4]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, and downstream support has weakened. The operating capacity of the core downstream aluminum oxide industry has dropped to 81.37%, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has slightly decreased. Downstream and traders are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude and making purchases based on rigid demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory performance varies. In Shandong, inventory decreased by 18.12% due to price - for - volume strategies, but in East China, the overall inventory increased by 2.83%, showing inventory accumulation pressure in some regions [4]. - **Profit**: Profits have shrunk significantly. Affected by the decline in liquid caustic soda prices, the ECU profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased significantly. In Shandong, the profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants decreased by 25.90% month - on - month, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 146.97 yuan per ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Caustic soda shows a weak trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being; Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Aluminum Oxide in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale aluminum oxide plants in Shandong is at a high level, and the price continues to decline. From November 14 to December 5, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major aluminum oxide plants in Shandong was continuously reduced [7][9]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production and Market**: The overall operation of national aluminum oxide enterprises is relatively stable. As of Friday, the national built - in capacity of aluminum oxide is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.90 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.6%. The inventory of aluminum oxide at the electrolytic aluminum enterprise end continues to rise, and the market supply is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum oxide will decline rapidly next week [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: From December 5 - 11, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The load in North China and East China increased slightly, while that in Southwest and Central China decreased [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides price trend charts of caustic soda futures, 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as charts of caustic soda variety spreads, regional spreads, and profit [22][25][28][30][32][35][38]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the warehouse inventory of national fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 457,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. The inventory performance varies by region [13]. - **Output**: Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton caustic soda plant has been put into operation, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 - ton caustic soda project has also been successfully put into operation, with a current daily output of 600 - 700 wet tons of 32% liquid caustic soda. The total additional capacity in 2025 is expected to be 2.1 million tons [52][53]. - **Plant Maintenance**: The report lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions, including the enterprise names, caustic soda capacities, and maintenance schedules [55]. - **Consumption**: The report provides charts of caustic soda demand, weekly consumption (including exports), and consumption of different types of caustic soda [57][58]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production Capacity**: There will be a large number of new aluminum oxide production capacity projects put into operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, especially in Guangxi. The new capacity will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [65][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions showed different trends, and the industry was generally stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The report provides charts of caustic soda export volume, export price, export profit, and export destinations. In 2025, there is an estimated 4.5 million tons of new overseas aluminum oxide production capacity to be put into operation, and most of the new aluminum oxide plants in Indonesia have been put into operation, with caustic soda stockpiling completed [73][74][82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Polypropylene: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Plastic: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Pure Benzene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Styrene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - PX: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PTA: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] - Short Fiber: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Bottle Chip: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Methanol: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Urea: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PVC: Strong bearish trend [1] - Caustic Soda: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Soda Ash: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Glass: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the chemical market is relatively loose, and the market is affected by factors such as cost, demand, and inventory [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different market trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product analysis [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins fluctuated within the day. The supply is relatively loose, and the willingness of producers to stabilize the market is prominent [2] - The main futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. The supply of polyethylene remains high, and the demand of downstream industries is decreasing. The demand for polypropylene is in the off - season, and the short - term demand release is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly within the day. The port inventory is rising, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on the long - term [3] - The main futures contract of styrene continued to rise within the day. The market sentiment is bullish, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving [3] Polyester - PX price is under pressure due to high valuation and weak downstream demand. PTA follows the decline. PX may adjust in the short term and maintain a strong expectation in the medium term [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol is reduced, and the port inventory is rising. The market is weak in the short term but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory is low, but it is in the off - season. The long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and it is driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market is bullish. The port inventory increased last week but may enter the destocking cycle in the medium term. Pay attention to the long - short spreads [6] - The urea market is firm. The supply is tightening, but it may increase this week. The short - term market may decline slightly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated within the day. The supply is high, the demand is low, and it may operate in the low - level range [7] - Caustic soda declined within the day. The profit is compressed, the supply pressure is high, and the upward space is limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash declined within the day. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. Consider the long - glass short - soda ash strategy [8] - Glass fluctuated within the day. The inventory pressure is large, the demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are stable with a downward trend, and the futures market has a slight rebound. Supply and demand factors are both neutral, inventory is bearish, profit is bearish, and valuation is bullish. Overall, the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment maintenance and restart will coexist, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. Warehouse inventories in the central and eastern regions decreased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 49, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: During the period, raw material and auxiliary material costs were stable, energy costs decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The caustic soda price increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 61 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26% [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy impact [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Key risks to watch include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The spot market in Shandong was weak this week, and the futures market had weak support at the bottom. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The 32% caustic soda price was stable with a downward trend, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not yet stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor. There were expectations of price cuts for alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Upstream**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising. The upstream production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted. In the main production areas, maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has declined [31][34][37]. - **Downstream**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the alumina start - up rate in Henan has significantly increased. Non - aluminum demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up rates are declining. The start - up rate of liquid chlorine downstream has rebounded [42][54][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand situation in the caustic soda industry remains severe. Although the operating rate has declined slightly and inventory has decreased marginally this week, the inventory level is still relatively high compared to the same period in recent years. Downstream demand is weak, and there are no obvious short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be bearish next week. The Shandong market performs poorly, and there are expectations of price cuts in alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan, which is negative for the Shandong market. The supply in Shandong remains high, and further price cuts are possible. In the East China region, the supply of liquid caustic soda plants is expected to increase, while downstream demand shows no substantial improvement. The current strong performance of the futures price lacks real support, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [2]. - **PVC**: This week, PVC prices continued to rise driven by commodities. The operating rate decreased slightly, but the inventory remained at a high level, and demand was persistently weak. During the off - season, the operating rate of hard products was at a low level, while that of soft products was relatively stable. Market transactions were mainly based on spot fixed - price sales. As prices rose, downstream观望 sentiment increased, and high - price exports faced significant resistance. The cost support was weak. Currently in the traditional off - season, outdoor construction in the north is decreasing, and the overall real estate demand reduction has a negative impact. The international market is highly competitive, and exports have limited support. The overall demand side performs poorly, and the current weak fundamentals of PVC spot are difficult to support the continued rise of the PVC market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina procurement prices. The current price is expected to be bearish in the short term [2][8]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 88.47%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points from last week. The inventory in East China decreased slightly, while that in Shandong increased due to high supply and weak demand [27]. - **Device Status**: Some enterprises in different regions are in a state of shutdown, half - load operation, or maintenance. The total maintenance loss this week was 3.15 tons, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements in the future [28]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 24 to 25, there are plans to put into production 1230 tons of alumina capacity (including 200 tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons annually, with a relatively concentrated increase of 15 tons from April to June [32]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: PVC spot prices continued to rise this week driven by the sentiment of commodities. However, the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, and it is difficult to support continued price increases [3][66]. - **Profit**: This week, as prices rose, the industry profit was slightly repaired [71]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased slightly this week. There was a new enterprise under maintenance, and the maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate was 75.42%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder increased by 0.45 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder decreased by 3.33 percentage points [87]. - **Device Status**: There are long - term shutdown, maintenance, and temporary shutdown situations in different enterprises. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 5.362 tons, an increase of 0.495 tons from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will decrease next week [89][91]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in a bottom - building period, providing negative feedback on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years. Raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, and it is difficult for the downstream of PVC to have positive driving forces [93]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is still at the highest level compared to recent years [101]. - **Export**: In November 2025, PVC exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, while imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [118].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited due to the high - production and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change in the short term. The high -开工 and weak - demand pattern persists for futures contracts before the 03 contract. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 4532, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 32, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 300. The domestic PVC spot market price is stagnant and stable, with the disk price fluctuating weakly. The weekly supply remains high, and market transactions have become sluggish. The current prices in the East China region are 4400 - 4540 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC and 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - PVC is at a low valuation. Although factors such as anti - involution trading, real - estate market policies, and short - covering can drive a phased rebound, the high - production and high - inventory situation is hard to change in the short term. Before the 03 contract, futures contracts face a pattern of high -开工 and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract. The expected inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the trading space of low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are still high, increasing the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historical low, and the supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is conducive to profit repair, but it is advisable to wait for substantial maintenance plans [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].