Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental research on issuers in a weak economic environment, highlighting the recent incident involving China Aviation Industry Corporation as a case in point [1][15][22] - It notes that the probability of credit spread compression is high in May, driven by favorable monetary conditions and the need for institutional investors to adjust their preferences in a low-interest-rate environment [1][15][19] - The report suggests that the current market conditions favor short-term credit products, while the demand for medium to long-term credit bonds may be constrained due to regulatory impacts on wealth management products [1][15][23] Group 2 - The strategy for credit bonds includes focusing on high-yielding products and extending duration where possible, particularly in the 4-5 year range, while being cautious about liquidity [2][3][23] - It highlights that the current yield spreads for various credit products are at historically high levels, indicating potential for further compression, especially in the 2-3 year and 4-5 year categories [2][24][26] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, such as local government bonds and high-rated real estate bonds, while advising caution in lower-rated sectors due to ongoing credit risks [4][5][19]

Macro - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance to defend its independence and stabilize inflation expectations, with 2-3 potential rate cuts remaining in 2025 depending on economic indicators such as consumer and employment data [4] Coal Industry - In March, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and some coal companies are facing accounting losses, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns [5] - Electricity generation from thermal power has been significantly below expectations since the beginning of the year, but demand for coal may recover as the summer peak approaches [5] Retail - During the Labor Day holiday, sales from key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a decline of 7.3% in sales amount [5] - The overall consumption data has shown resilience, with specific segments such as national subsidies, gold and jewelry retail, and emotional consumption being highlighted as areas of interest [5] Automotive Industry - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a revenue of 73.15 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.82 billion yuan, down 17.60% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.12 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.26 billion yuan, up 117.20% year-on-year [6] Technology and AI - Northstar Holdings is projected to achieve total revenue of 940 million yuan in FY25, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%, with cloud HCM solutions expected to generate 730 million yuan [7] - The company anticipates an adjusted net loss of approximately 60 million yuan for FY25, corresponding to an adjusted net loss rate of -6.4% [7] Healthcare - Steady Medical reported a revenue increase of 9.7% and a net profit increase of 19.8% in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing a revenue growth of 36.5% and a net profit growth of 36.3% [8] - The medical consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 46.3% in Q1 2025, while health and lifestyle consumer products grew by 28.8% [8] Alcohol Industry - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a total revenue of 360.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [9] - In Q4 2024, total revenue decreased by 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 11.32% [9]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 基本面：进口减量有限，产增需减导致过剩 （1）2025Q1，我国煤炭进口总量1.1亿吨，同比-0.9%，总体仍维持高位，其中，由印尼进口煤炭5259万吨， 同比-6.6%，由澳大利亚进口煤炭1645万吨，同比+3.7%，由蒙古进口煤炭1749万吨，同比+3.1%，由俄罗斯进 口煤炭1962万吨，同比+7.9%；（2）2025Q1，我国原煤产量12.0亿吨，同比+8.8%，其中，新疆、山西、陕 西、内蒙古原煤产量同比增速分别为16.9%、19.8%、4.1%、2.1%；（3）2025Q1，我国火电发电量1.5万亿千 瓦时，同比-4.4%，生铁产量2.2亿吨，同比+1.4%，水泥产量3.3亿吨，同比-1.7%，化工耗煤量0.8亿吨，同比 +14 ...

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The coal sector's overall net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, with an average ROE of approximately 10% [1] - The total profit of large coal enterprises is projected to be 604.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [1] - Key coal companies are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 155.5 billion yuan, down 18.6% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: 2024 Operational Overview - The total coal production of 28 key coal companies is estimated at 1.34 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is approximately 131 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25% [2] - The weighted average coal price and cost are projected to decrease by 7% and remain stable, respectively [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The sector's profit is expected to decline by 27% year-on-year, with an average net profit margin of around 11% [3] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to be 31 billion yuan, down 27.3% year-on-year [3] - The average gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 are expected to drop to 25% and 11%, respectively [3] Group 4: Q1 2025 Operational Overview - The coal production of 24 companies is expected to reach 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is projected to decrease to 97 yuan, with coal prices and costs declining by 18% and 15%, respectively [4] - Some companies, such as Shaanxi Energy and Yancoal, are expected to maintain a net profit per ton exceeding 100 yuan [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Seasonal demand for thermal coal is expected to improve marginally after May, with expectations of increased industrial demand and reduced coal imports [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to gradually recover after inventory declines, despite a potential downward trend in the price center for 2025 [5] Group 6: Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include China Coal Energy and Yancoal [6] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure on performance due to declining coal prices and volumes, while its electricity business shows growth in both volume and price, maintaining a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, down 85.8% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.45 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, up 3402% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, but the net profit was -100 million yuan, a decline of 590.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company produced 9.41 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, with external sales down 32% to 7.84 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 808 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, the price dropped to 672 yuan per ton, down 24.9% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2024 was 181 yuan, a decrease of 17.3% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it fell to 76 yuan, down 66.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Electricity Business Performance - In 2024, the company's power generation reached 651,472 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4020%, with grid-connected electricity also rising by 4060% [2] - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 0.367 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it increased slightly to 0.3718 yuan per kWh, up 0.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company expects coal production capacity to increase, with several projects progressing as planned, including the Ma Yidong and Yangshan coal mines [3] - The company is advancing its coal, electricity, and renewable energy projects, with significant investments in renewable energy capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 45%, an increase of 4.94% year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.6% [3]

煤炭/煤炭开采 盘江股份（600395.SH） Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升 2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收 89 亿元，同比-5.4%，归 母净利润 1 亿元，同比-85.8%，扣非归母净利润-0.3 亿元，同比-104.6%；其中 2024Q4 实现营收 24.5 亿元，环比+2%，归母净利润 0.7 亿元，环比+3402%， 扣非归母净利润 0.2 亿元，环比+1003.1%。2025Q1 实现营收 24.8 亿元，同比 +27.3%，归母净利润-1 亿元，同比-590.4%，扣非归母净利润-1.2 亿元，同比 -4826.2%。考虑到煤炭销量下滑，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司实现归母净利润 0.59/1.12/1.63 亿元 （2025-2026 年前值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant investments made by Honghu Fund in the stock market, particularly focusing on three major stocks: China Telecom, Yili Group, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a total market value exceeding 12.5 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Details - As of the end of Q1 2025, Honghu Fund held 762 million shares of China Telecom, 153 million shares of Yili Group, and 116 million shares of Shaanxi Coal, with respective market values of 5.98 billion yuan, 4.29 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan [2]. - The fund increased its holdings in Yili Group and Shaanxi Coal by 13.51 million shares and 15.04 million shares respectively, while maintaining its position in China Telecom [2]. Fund Background - Honghu Fund was established in February 2024 with a total scale of 50 billion yuan, funded equally by China Life and Xinhua Insurance [2]. - The fund aims to achieve lower risk and higher returns compared to benchmarks, having successfully deployed its initial investment of 50 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Developments - The China Financial Regulatory Authority plans to approve an additional 60 billion yuan for insurance funds to invest in the stock market, bringing the total approved and proposed investment scale to 222 billion yuan [1][3]. Focus on High Dividend Assets - The article emphasizes the trend of insurance funds focusing on high dividend stocks, which provide stable returns and align with their long-term investment strategies [6][7]. - Honghu Fund's major holdings exhibit attractive dividend yields, with Shaanxi Coal's yield nearing 7%, and Yili Group and China Telecom yielding over 4% and 3% respectively [6][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that insurance funds will increase their allocation to high dividend assets, estimating an annual increase of 300 to 400 billion yuan over the next three years [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure year-on-year due to rising alumina prices, but growth potential is expected from group asset injections [1] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.56 billion yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year but up 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 5.79 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 6.50 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8.4%, 6.5%, and 5.4% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the average price of alumina in Inner Mongolia was 3,794 yuan/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year but down 28.9% quarter-on-quarter, which may pressure the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment [5] - The average market price of aluminum ingots in Q1 2025 was 20,433 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5] Business Growth Potential - The company has a coal production capacity of 48 million tons and is expected to see growth from the injection of assets from the group, including 15 million tons of coal capacity and a large electrolytic aluminum production line [6] - The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity, with a target of 700,000 kilowatts to be put into operation in 2024, contributing to its growth potential [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total cash dividend of 1.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.67%, which is expected to continue increasing under state-owned enterprise market management requirements [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The report also notes that the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 3.63 billion, 4.61 billion, and 5.19 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -25.2%, +26.8%, and +12.6% [4][6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's coal production and sales volume decreased by 17.7% and 26.2% year-on-year, respectively. The average selling price of coal was 937.8 yuan per ton, down 20.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 519.9 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 417.9 yuan, reflecting a decline of 28.4% year-on-year [4] Product Performance - The report indicates that the production and sales of coke and methanol also saw a decline in Q1 2025, with coke sales down 15.2% year-on-year and methanol sales up 31.2% year-on-year [5] - The average price of coke was 1498.9 yuan per ton, down 35.2% year-on-year, while the average price of methanol increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the growth potential in coal mining and coal chemical sectors, with ongoing projects such as the construction of the 8 million tons/year Tohutu mine and the 3 million tons/year Xinh Lake coal mine [6] - The company is also increasing its limestone resource capacity, with a total of 7 mines expected to produce 16.4 million tons/year [6] Valuation Metrics - As of May 6, 2025, the company's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.76, indicating a state of being below net asset value. The report mentions a shareholder return plan with a minimum dividend payout ratio increased from 30% to 35% [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure year-on-year due to rising alumina prices, but the potential for growth through group asset injection is promising [1] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.56 billion yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year but up 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 5.79 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 6.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.4%, 6.5%, and 5.4% [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the average market price of aluminum ingots in China was 20,433 yuan/ton, up 7.2% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. The average price of alumina in Inner Mongolia was 3,794 yuan/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year but down 28.9% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company has a coal production capacity of 48 million tons and is expected to see an increase in coal production capacity due to the planned asset injection from the group [6] Growth Potential - The company is actively advancing its new energy business, with a planned installed capacity of approximately 700,000 kilowatts in 2024, aiming for a total installed capacity of 5,007,600 kilowatts by the end of 2024 [6] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Inner Mongolia Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., which has a coal production capacity of 15 million tons per year and a large-scale aluminum production line, is expected to open up growth opportunities for the company [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total cash dividend of 1.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.67%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points year-on-year. The current dividend yield is 4.8% [6]