Group 1 - Palm oil futures prices ended a two-day rally, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - India's palm oil imports surged, suggesting strong demand that could influence palm oil prices upward [1] - The question remains whether this robust demand will sustain the upward pressure on palm oil prices [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | 豆粕 | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2920，2985】 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-05 郑棉期价延续震荡，纸浆走势依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13265元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14431元/吨，较前一日变动-14元/吨，现货基差CF09+1166，较前一日变动-19；3128B棉全国均价14544元/吨， 较前一日变动-9元/吨，现货基差CF09+1279，较前一日变动-14。 近期市场资讯，据澳大利亚有关机构发布的报告数据显示，由于昆士兰州植棉面积的扩大，以及水资源供应充足 使得单产有所提升，该机构上调了澳大利亚2024/25年度棉花总产预期至120万吨，较上一次预测（110万吨）调增 9.1%，同比增长约12%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，近期美国国际贸易法院裁定暂停特朗普政府4月2日宣布的一揽子加征关税政 策生效，但随后联邦巡回上诉法院又裁定恢复实施。当前美国对中国商品加征关税仍累计30%，且24%关税延期90 天后政策不确定性将再次提升。国内降准降息并持续释放政策助力经济修复，但实际对冲外部压力的效果仍有待 观察。国际方面，USD ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is currently in a situation where the cost of the external market is likely to rise but difficult to fall, while the domestic pressure is gradually increasing. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. Although there is some support in the short - term, if the production continues to recover in the medium - term, the price will still be under pressure [7][9][10]. - The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future as the international supply tension eases and domestic import supply is expected to increase [12][13]. - The cotton price is expected to continue its volatile trend. The fundamental situation has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is negative [15][16][17]. - The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. The pressure of new production and the off - season consumption needs to be hedged by the continuous and effective elimination of old chickens [19][20]. - The pig price is likely to continue to decline in the short - term due to oversupply, but the downward space of the spot and futures is relatively limited in the near future [22][23]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, US soybeans rose slightly driven by crude oil, but the increase was limited by good planting and weather conditions. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell due to high crushing volume and sufficient supply. Last week, port soybean inventories reached 7 million tons, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories were 290,000 tons. It is expected that both will continue to accumulate. The US soybean production area will have good rainfall in the next two weeks, and the 25/26 US soybean area will decline [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal contracts such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to possible weather stimuli in the external market when the 09 contract is at the lower end of the cost range, and to pay attention to whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded when it is at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports increased by 17.9%. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia in the 2024/25 season remains unchanged from the previous forecast. Brazil's estimated soybean exports in June are lower than last year [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile. Negative factors include the downward trend of the crude oil center, the obvious recovery of palm oil production, and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Positive factors include low inventories in some regions and India's reduction of edible oil import tariffs [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while those in Yunnan increased. The industrial inventories in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while those in Yunnan increased slightly [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply tension has eased, and domestic import supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, and the budding rate was 8% [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market's fundamental situation has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is negative. The cotton price is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short - term [16][17]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most regions had little inventory pressure [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The elimination of old chickens has increased slightly. The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuity and intensity of the elimination of old chickens to determine whether production capacity can be effectively reduced [20]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices generally fell. The supply in the market was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot performance is weak, but the downward space of the spot and futures is relatively limited in the near future. It is recommended not to go long, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. The strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of domestic soybean futures prices follows the external market, and the upward trend has ended. The soybean futures price in the US will still be affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a pattern of being prone to rise and hard to fall. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The supply and demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally, and the demand outlook has become more optimistic. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has become a strong variety [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme in North and South America weakens, the rebound of US soybean futures prices has slowed down. The current market's main trading logic follows the weather theme, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The factors affecting it include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand [6][7] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally. The increase in Indian demand has made the market optimistic about the demand outlook for palm oil. The prices of domestic and foreign palm oil futures have rebounded jointly. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has replaced rapeseed oil as a strong variety. The factors affecting it include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][8] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The factors affecting it include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动不强，震荡偏弱 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，豆粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 棉花：上涨动能不足 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰逐步加速 | 10 | | 生猪：降重启动，反套格局确立 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 8,130 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 8,118 | 涨跌幅 -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,688 | -0.05% | 7,666 | -0.29% ...

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 商品研究 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 订单增幅有限，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-05 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - For corn, the US corn sowing progress and good rate are favorable, and Sino-US trade relations have eased, but there is long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, purchasing enthusiasm in the Northeast is average, and trading activities are light. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rise in wheat forage use affects the corn market. Corn futures prices continue to fluctuate, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3] - For corn starch, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. Although supply pressure has weakened and spot prices are relatively firm, downstream demand is limited, and inventory remains high. Corn starch futures prices also fluctuate, and short - term participation is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2333 yuan/ton, and corn starch is 2664 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 115 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 69 yuan/ton. Futures positions and other indicators show various changes [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 438.25 cents/bushel. The total CBOT corn position is 1654814 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 20333 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.12 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat is 2439.17 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted prices of corn starch in different regions vary, and the import price of corn is 1975.97 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons. The sowing areas in each country are also provided [2] Industrial Situation - Corn inventories in southern and northern ports are 136.7 and 484 million tons respectively. The monthly import volume of corn is 18 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23720 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, and the processing profits of corn starch in different regions are negative. The alcohol and starch enterprise operating rates are 44.91% and 51.78% respectively [2] Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.72%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.63%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 11.25% [2] Industry News - As of June 1, the US corn sowing progress is 93%, and the good rate is 69%. The predicted second - season corn output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 106.1 million tons [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean price fluctuated on the previous day. In May, the downstream demand entered the off - season with weak procurement sentiment. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was cautious. The sowing area in Northeast China increased compared to last year, while some inland areas had not started sowing yet, with more inventory and relatively firm prices [3] - The domestic peanut price rose on the previous day. In May, the domestic peanut spot market showed a strong upward trend. With farmers' remaining grain almost exhausted, the market's circulating supply was mainly in the hands of middlemen. High acquisition costs and increased storage and capital occupation costs led to strong price - support intentions among middlemen, keeping peanut prices firm [4][5] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2507 contract was 4134.00 yuan/ton, up 17.00 yuan/ton or +0.41% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible bean spot was A07 + 26, down 17 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] - International market: On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.7%, hitting a seven - week low due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas, tense Sino - US trade relations, and sufficient South American soybean supply [2] - Domestic spot: The prices of国标一等 protein 39% and 41% middle - grain tower - loaded soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared to the previous day [2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8460.00 yuan/ton, up 76.00 yuan/ton or +0.91% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 9200.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan/ton or +1.10% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 - 60.00, down 76.00 or - 475.00% month - on - month [4] - Domestic spot: Peanut prices in different regions of China such as Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin were reported, with prices varying by variety and region [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market is expected to continue its volatile trend. Domestic oil mills' high operation and high - pressure production will accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory. With uncertainties in US soybean demand and concerns about China - US trade tariffs, the short - term trend will remain volatile [2] - The oil market is predicted to maintain a volatile pattern. The supply of domestic soy - based products will gradually recover, and the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season with inventory accumulation. Although the recent export increase is favorable, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, and the inventory accumulation trend is likely to continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased. The price changes were 0.71%, 1.69%, 0.29%, - 3.15%, - 1.11%, and - 3.04% respectively [1] - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: Some spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, M - RM09, etc. have changed compared to the previous values [1] International Futures Market - BMD palm oil decreased by 1.02%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.63%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 1.25%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.07% [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some products like Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased [1] - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spreads between some products such as Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil have changed [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The import and crushing profits of different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. have different values and changes compared to the previous values [1] Industry Information - Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. By the end of May, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major oil mills had reached nearly 7 million tons. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 increased by 13.21% compared to the same period last month. Indian edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month, reaching 1.18 million tons, and palm oil imports increased by 87% month - on - month, reaching 600,000 tons [2]