Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][19]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with a year-over-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 47% and a 28% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from operational leverage as it continues to expand its network of learning centers, which increased from over 240 to over 300 in 2024, covering more than 100 cities [4][5]. - The education sector remains in a growth phase, particularly for high school education, with a projected growth period of about ten years due to the stable population of high school-age students [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a 26% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 180 million yuan, a 17% increase [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 35%, slightly down by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the costs associated with network expansion and an increase in teaching staff [1]. - The company has a target net profit of 261.35 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a 45.45% increase compared to 2024 [7][14]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a share buyback plan of 110 to 150 million yuan, with a maximum price of 66.8 yuan per share, aimed at equity incentives and potential cancellation of shares [3][6]. Industry Context - The company is focusing its resources on educational training and vocational education, having terminated a project related to higher vocational education to enhance operational efficiency [6]. - The competitive landscape favors leading national brands in the education sector, which are expected to benefit from their established brand strength during the recovery phase of the industry [5][6].

以下文章来源于海豚投研 ，作者海豚君 海豚投研 . 有灵魂的思考、有态度的研究。 来源 | 海豚投研 自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦 的升温，中美两国之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布 了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020 年~2022年间美国政府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等 在争端缓解后仍主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁 ...

Macro Perspective - The core point of the Central Political Bureau meeting is to implement more proactive macro policies and prioritize domestic demand, confirming the approach of early policy action to address economic pressures [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to stimulate economic growth, indicating further policies targeting deflation expectations [1][2] Strategy Perspective - The meeting recognized the economic recovery since the beginning of the year, with GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2024, but highlighted the need for further stabilization due to external shocks [2] - Future policy directions include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary easing [2] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds is expected to accelerate, with local special bond issuance reaching approximately 24% by mid-April 2024 [2] - Monetary policy remains flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support consumption and innovation [2] Industry Insights - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from increased urban renewal efforts and a new development model focusing on high-quality housing supply [7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at optimizing the acquisition of existing properties and supporting the construction of affordable housing [7] - The construction materials sector, particularly consumer building materials, is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions, as well as ongoing urban renewal policies [7] - The cultural and entertainment sectors are expected to thrive due to rising domestic demand for experiential consumption, supported by advancements in technology such as AI and virtual reality [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has shown a turnaround in performance with a revenue increase of 17.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 0.91 billion, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.47 million, up 113% [1] - The K12 school operations are expanding, with notable achievements in student admissions to prestigious universities, indicating a strong educational quality and reputation [3][4] - The company is diversifying its course offerings, including the introduction of AP courses and domestic examination-focused classes, enhancing its educational services [4][5] Financial Performance - The company expects revenue of 3.2 billion in 2024, representing a 26% increase, but anticipates a net loss of 0.37 billion [1] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 0.23 billion, 0.39 billion, and 0.78 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.04, 0.07, and 0.13 [11] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 2.82 billion, with a current price of 4.72 yuan per share [7] Operational Developments - The company has successfully established two K12 schools, which have received high recognition for their educational standards and facilities [2] - The operational experience gained since 2015 has significantly improved the company's educational service capabilities [2] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement with a bilingual school to provide operational management consulting, indicating a strategic move towards asset-light business models [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of $8.93 [4][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TAL Education is focusing on enhancing its profitability in the fiscal year 2026, with a projected revenue growth of 30%, reaching approximately $2.917 billion [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in quality education training and sales of learning devices, with a significant increase in enrollment driven by the expansion of teaching points [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology in improving operational efficiency and reducing costs, projecting an adjusted operating profit margin of over 7% for fiscal year 2026, which would be a doubling from fiscal year 2025 [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL Education are as follows: $1.49 billion for 2024, $2.25 billion for 2025, $2.917 billion for 2026, $3.418 billion for 2027, and $3.864 billion for 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.2%, 51.0%, 29.6%, 17.2%, and 13.0% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to increase from $85 million in 2025 to $512 million by 2028, with significant growth rates of 73.6% in 2025 and 107.9% in 2026 [3][16]. - The report notes that the adjusted EPS is projected to rise from $0.14 in 2025 to $0.84 in 2028, reflecting a strong recovery and growth trajectory [3][16]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $14.79 and a low of $7.42, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.09 billion [6][15]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 10.88% [6]. Strategic Focus - TAL Education is committed to providing high-quality teaching services and content, with ongoing investments in product diversification and channel variety to adapt to different business cycles [8][9]. - The company is also enhancing its brand influence through technology integration, content upgrades, and user experience improvements, including the introduction of new AI-assisted features [8][9].

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件：中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势。 下一步政策如何定？"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策"。 会议对外部风险保持高度警惕，对内强调"办好自己的事"的战略定力，将"稳就业"置于"四稳"之首。 针对 当前国际形势，政治局会议首次采用"国际经贸斗争"表述，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部环境高度不确 定背景下，会议聚焦内部高质量发展，强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 政策工具箱将呈现灵活性与超常规双重特征，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。 鉴于美国关税政策不确定性加剧对我国经济预测的扰动，叠加会议"强化底线思维，备足政 策预案"的要求，预计后续政策将密切跟踪高频经济数据边际变化，在波动窗口期适时加大调节力度，确保 经济运行在合理区间。 宏观政策有何新动向？财政政策加快债务发行和使用，货币政策创设新的结构性工具。 会议要求强化政策执行效率，明确提出"加紧实施"，"既定政策早出台早见效"。 一方面，政治局会议敦促 既定 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a cautious outlook on its study abroad business and future revenue projections, focusing on improving operational efficiency [1][3] - Non-selective business revenue increased by 21.2%, slightly exceeding management guidance, while total revenue for FY2025Q3 was $1.183 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The company plans to maintain a 20-25% capacity expansion for FY2025, with a focus on improving outlet utilization [2][13] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q3, the company reported a net profit of $113 million, adjusted down by 14.3% due to increased tax rates [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of February 2025 was $1.75 billion, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin improved to 55.1%, up 8.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin e-commerce business [2][19] Business Segments Performance - K9 education new business grew by 35%, while high school training showed strong demand with a 19% increase [2][12] - The study abroad training and consulting segments grew by 7% and 21%, respectively, but are facing downward pressure due to declining consumer spending and international relations [2][12] - E-commerce and cultural tourism revenues dropped by 49% due to the divestment of "With Huixing" [2][12] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q4, the company expects non-selective revenue to grow by 10-13%, with continued pressure on study abroad demand and a high base effect in K12 education [3][21] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased $696 million worth of shares, and plans to adopt more diversified shareholder return methods [3][21] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to $470 million, $570 million, and $690 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 3%, 14%, and 22% [3][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of $8.93 [4][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TAL Education is focusing on enhancing its profitability in the fiscal year 2026, with a projected revenue growth of 30%, reaching approximately $2.917 billion [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in quality education training and sales of learning devices, with a notable retention rate of 80% for its small class offerings [8][9]. - The integration of AI technology is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, aiming for an adjusted operating profit margin of over 7% in fiscal year 2026, doubling from fiscal year 2025 [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL Education are as follows: - 2024: $1.490 billion - 2025: $2.250 billion - 2026E: $2.917 billion - 2027E: $3.418 billion - 2028E: $3.864 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 46.2% for 2024, 51.0% for 2025, and 29.6% for 2026 [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are projected to increase significantly, with figures of $85 million for 2024, $150 million for 2025, and $307 million for 2026 [3][16]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of $0.14 for 2024, $0.24 for 2025, and $0.51 for 2026 [3][16]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $14.79 and a low of $7.42, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.09 billion [6][15]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 10.88% [6]. Strategic Focus - TAL Education is committed to expanding its product offerings and enhancing its brand influence through technology and content integration, including the launch of new courses and AI-assisted features [8][9]. - The company aims to diversify its channels and adapt to different business cycles to ensure sustained growth [8].

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by approximately 1.2% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.7% [1] Company Highlights - Apple (AAPL.O) saw an increase of nearly 2% [1] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) both rose by over 3.5% [1] - Alibaba (BABA.N) experienced a slight increase, while NIO (NIO.N) rose by over 6% [1] - TAL Education Group (TAL.N) fell by more than 18% [1] Chinese Market Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.68% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of forced delisting of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. and restrictions on U.S. investments in Chinese assets, highlighting the historical context and possible implications for the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Delisting and Investment Restrictions - The U.S. government previously initiated a delisting crisis for Chinese companies from 2020 to 2022 due to the HFCAA, which required companies to meet PCAOB audit standards [8][11]. - The crisis peaked when 150 Chinese companies were placed on a "pre-delisting" list, leading to an average stock price drop of 60% for 19 tracked companies [11][12]. - Although the delisting risk was mitigated through negotiations, some companies like China Mobile were still forced to delist during the tensions [12]. Group 2: Current Risks and Potential Impacts - Recent statements from U.S. officials suggest the possibility of using the forced delisting of Chinese companies as a negotiation tool, indicating a "black swan" risk that should not be ignored [2][3]. - The article outlines the potential impact on various Chinese companies if forced delisting or investment restrictions were to occur, emphasizing that the likelihood of such actions is currently low but not negligible [2][3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - A table lists various Chinese companies, their U.S. ticker symbols, market capitalization, and the percentage of shares held by U.S. investors, indicating varying levels of risk exposure [3]. - Companies like Pinduoduo and Didi, which are solely listed in the U.S., would face the most significant impact if delisted, while those with dual listings may experience less severe consequences [20][21]. Group 4: Comparison with Previous Delisting Crisis - The current delisting risk is perceived to be more uncertain than the previous crisis, as it may involve more significant political stakes and core interests [18][19]. - The dependency of Chinese companies on U.S. markets has decreased, with the average trading volume in Hong Kong rising from 10% to 34% since March 2022 [20][38]. Group 5: Response Strategies for Companies - Companies that have established dual listings can transition their shares to continue trading in Hong Kong without significant legal hurdles [23][39]. - For companies solely listed in the U.S., there is a pressing need to convert to a primary listing in Hong Kong before any potential delisting occurs [23][39]. Group 6: Broader Implications of Investment Restrictions - If the U.S. government expands restrictions on investments in Chinese companies, the impact would be more severe than a delisting, leading to permanent capital outflows and potential panic selling [27][28]. - The average U.S. investor ownership in tracked Chinese companies is approximately 39.9%, which could lead to significant market disruptions if restrictions are enacted [28][30].