Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but a substantial improvement in its core business profitability is noted, indicating a shift from reliance on non-recurring gains to sustainable earnings from its main operations [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million to 370 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 56.01% to 58.39% [1]. - The expected net profit after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 238 million and 258 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 281 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and a net profit of 102 million yuan after excluding non-recurring items, compared to a loss of 455 million yuan in the previous year [1]. Operational Strategies - The company has implemented cost-reduction strategies, including smart upgrades to breeding facilities, disease prevention optimization, and innovative farming models, which have strengthened its core business profitability [2]. - The focus on cost control has allowed the company to achieve a turnaround in its core business, contrasting with the previous year's reliance on non-recurring gains for profitability [1][4]. Regulatory and Financial Challenges - The company faced regulatory scrutiny for failing to return 1.16 billion yuan of idle raised funds on time, leading to administrative measures from the regulatory authorities [3]. - Cash flow and debt pressure remain significant issues, with a negative operating cash flow of 964 million yuan in 2024, although there was an improvement in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company secured 740 million yuan in investments from industry investors to alleviate debt and improve liquidity, but the long-term financial health remains uncertain [3]. Industry Context - The cyclical volatility of pig prices continues to pose a risk to the profitability of breeding companies, including the company, which has achieved temporary profitability through cost reduction [4]. - The ability to maintain stable profitability amidst industry cycles remains a critical challenge for the company [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - **Feed Production**: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering**: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]

Group 1: Core Views - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting a favorable investment environment for livestock, pet, and pork industries [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, with expectations of rising prices driven by both domestic and international markets [14][21] - The pet industry is identified as a high-growth sector, benefiting from changing consumer demographics and increasing emotional spending [15][18] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations for the livestock sector include Guangming Meat Industry, a rare listed beef company with stable resources from New Zealand, and Muyuan Foods, a leading player in pig farming [1][3][18] - In the pet food sector, Zhongchong Co. is highlighted as a pioneer with synchronized growth in domestic and international markets [1][3][18] - For the pork industry, the report recommends companies such as DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improving cash flows and dividend ratios [1][3][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Data - As of June 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [2][21] - The report notes a decrease in the price of 7kg piglets to 433 yuan/head, down 13.95% month-on-month, indicating a cautious approach to industry expansion [2][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing increased supply, with expectations of demand recovery, particularly for yellow chickens, which are anticipated to benefit from domestic demand improvements [28][39]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 生猪行情： 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 每日报告 周上调 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Home Appliance Industry**: The home appliance industry is experiencing a shift in production to Vietnam due to tariff advantages and the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. Companies like Ecovacs, Roborock, and Dechang have established factories in Vietnam, while Midea and Zhaochi are expanding their production lines there [1][3]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The innovative drug sector is a focal point, with business development (BD) generating significant cash flow, which is being reinvested into research and development. Companies like Baicheng Pharmaceutical and Tigermed are highlighted for their potential in this area [1][5]. Key Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. has a 20% tariff agreement with Vietnam, while other Southeast Asian countries face tariffs above 30%. This makes Vietnam an attractive location for production, allowing companies to benefit from lower tariffs when exporting to the U.S. [2]. - **Domestic Market Strength**: The domestic home appliance market remains robust, with strong growth post-618 promotion. The air conditioning sector is seeing high e-commerce growth rates, supported by national subsidy policies [1][4]. - **Expected Performance**: Companies in the export chain, particularly leading firms, are expected to see clear performance growth as the second quarter may represent a bottom for these companies [3]. Additional Observations - **Consumer Electronics**: Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are well-positioned due to their production capabilities and supply chain stability in Vietnam. The upcoming Black Friday and Christmas shopping seasons are expected to boost demand [3]. - **Two-Wheeler Market**: The two-wheeler market is projected to see significant growth, with Yadea expected to achieve a 50-60% increase in July. The market is benefiting from low base effects and policies encouraging trade-in and replenishment [10]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The pork farming sector is currently in a cyclical downturn, with recommendations for companies with cost advantages like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs. Supply pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year [12][13]. - **Pet Food Sector**: The pet food sector has seen growth in domestic sales, driven by local brands innovating and expanding their channels. Despite challenges from trade conflicts, companies are adapting by relocating production [11]. Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic performance and export potential, such as Ecovacs, Roborock, Hisense, TCL, and Haier [1][4]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: Companies like Jeya and Yuanfei Pet are expected to outperform due to market share gains and replenishment cycles in the third quarter [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics within the home appliance and pharmaceutical industries, as well as other relevant sectors.

Summary of Agricultural Sector Investment Strategy 2025 Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with large listed companies improving cash flow and industry profitability becoming differentiated. Leading companies are currently valued at historical lows, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit improvement and increased shareholder returns [1][3][4]. Key Points on Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is undergoing a transformation, with large groups gaining market share and demonstrating significant cost advantages. The industry is entering a phase where leading companies are expected to see rising return on equity (ROE) and increased free cash flow [2][3]. - Recommendations include major players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Technology, and Dekang Holdings, which exhibit strong cost advantages and high profit realization rates [8]. Pet Food Sector Insights - The pet food sector is in a high-growth phase, with accelerating revenue growth and improved profitability. Leading brands are leveraging product formulation and channel investments to achieve rapid growth. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [5][9]. Feed Sector Recommendations - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment in the feed sector, having achieved significant sales growth of 3 million tons in the first half of the year. Despite potential underperformance in earnings forecasts, the company's competitive position and long-term growth prospects remain strong [6][11]. Swine Farming Industry Dynamics - The swine farming industry has seen a rise in scale, with specialization becoming more pronounced. Large groups focus on breeding while smaller farms concentrate on fattening pigs. The industry has faced overcapacity due to rapid capital expansion post-African swine fever [7][12]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pet food industry has shown strong performance from January to May 2025, despite recent valuation discrepancies. The long-term outlook remains positive, with domestic brands increasingly focusing on high-end products and innovation driving growth [9][10]. - The feed industry is in a late-stage phase, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to enhance their competitive edge, particularly in overseas markets, with annual sales growth projected to exceed 30% [11]. Challenges and Opportunities in Animal Health - The animal health sector faces challenges due to a lack of standout products. However, innovation in vaccines and genetic engineering presents growth opportunities, with companies like KQ Bio being recommended for their strong R&D capabilities [13]. Overall Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the agricultural sector emphasizes a selective approach, focusing on the swine farming and pet food sectors, as well as Haida Group. Investors are advised to pay close attention to these areas to capitalize on potential investment opportunities amid frequent policy changes [14].

2025 年生猪养殖行业的产能恢复情况如何？ 2025 年生猪养殖行业的产能恢复明显偏慢，整个猪价处于下行周期。今年 4 月份能繁母猪存栏量环比持平，5 月份环比小幅上升 0.1%。从 2024 年 4 月到 2025 年 5 月，累计增幅为 1.3%，增幅非常缓慢。根据农业部和统计局的数据， 这一轮周期的恢复速度较慢。 今年（2025 年）生猪价格走势如何？ 今年（2025 年）生猪价格整体处于下行阶段。去年（2024 年）8 月 15 日达 到最高点，为 20.92 元每公斤。今年第 23 周，全国生猪均价降至 14.78 元每 公斤，同比下降 16.7%。最近一段时间，猪价基本在 15 元左右波动，比市场 预期稍高。根据年度策略，今年的猪价不会太差，整个行业会有正常盈利。主 要原因是 2024 年能繁母猪存栏量均值较 2023 年下降了约 4%，理论上推算， 2025 年 1-5 月，20 家上市公司生猪出栏量同比增长 31%。神农、牧 原、温氏和德康等一线公司成本控制领先，成本持续下降。 生猪养殖板块投资逻辑转变，从周期反转向政策管控下的长期高价期预 期，以及对大型企业的确定性偏好。头部公司成本优势明 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The convertible bond market has recently reached new highs, with the average closing price at 124 yuan and the median close to 126 yuan, placing it in the top 93% since 2020 [2][3] - The number of low-priced convertible bonds has decreased to below 20, accounting for approximately 3.6% of the market [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - In a bull market, banks, brokerages, and convertible bonds will exit quickly, while in a volatile market, some funds will withdraw, leading to a compression of premium rates for high-priced convertible bonds [3] - It is recommended to focus on mid-to-low priced convertible bonds like Wentai and Shuyou, which offer long-term effectiveness and price protection [1][2][6] - Policy-driven market reactions are evident, particularly in the photovoltaic sector with notable price recoveries for companies like Jinko, Jinao, and Jinneng [5][6] - The construction materials sector, particularly state-owned enterprises like Wanquan and Jidong, is rated highly but faces challenges due to being below net asset value [5] - The cyclical industries, such as pig farming, represented by companies like Xiwang, Muyuan, and Wens, are also worth attention due to good cash flow and stock elasticity [5][6] Additional Important Content - The PCB industry is benefiting from high demand driven by the computing power sector, easing tariffs, and rising copper prices, which account for 30% of PCB costs [9] - Key PCB companies like Jing Er San and Huazheng are seeing significant growth, with revenue and profit targets set to increase by 20-30% [10][11] - Huayou Cobalt reported a net profit of 1.448 billion yuan in Q2, a 26% year-on-year increase, driven by rising cobalt prices and production capacity [12] - The company is also expanding its market reach, including plans to supply products to overseas clients [14] - Guolv Convertible Bond has shown strong performance, with a projected net profit of nearly 1 billion yuan for the year, driven by high demand in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor sectors [15] - Zhongchong's performance has been less affected by tariffs due to its production layout in the U.S. and Cambodia, maintaining a stable growth trajectory [16] Recommendations - Focus on mid-to-low priced convertible bonds such as Wentai and Shuyou for their elasticity and price protection [6] - Consider cyclical industries like pig farming for their strong cash flow and stock elasticity [5][6] - The top ten recommended convertible bonds span technology growth, new consumption, and cyclical growth sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [17]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 19 million to 21 million yuan, compared to a loss of 12.75 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a growth of 249.03% to 264.72% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 5 million and 7 million yuan, compared to a loss of 27.01 million yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 118.51% to 125.92% [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The significant increase in net profit is primarily driven by a substantial rise in pig sales, with a total of 3.5766 million pigs sold, marking a 125.04% increase year-on-year. The sale price of pigs increased by approximately 46 yuan per head compared to the previous year, leading to a "volume and price increase" in the pig farming business [2] - The company has implemented mature cost control processes and leveraged resource advantages, which have contributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Additionally, the company has leased some idle pig farms and feed factories from a related group, effectively reducing asset idleness losses [2] - Overall, the company's gross profit margin has increased by about 4% compared to the same period last year, contributing to the growth in net profit [2]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing excessive competition in various industries, particularly focusing on the need for regulatory measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved through several stages, starting from the initial discussions in 2024 to the latest measures proposed in 2025, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue of irrational competition [2][3] - The macroeconomic impact of "involution" includes a downward spiral of prices leading to reduced corporate profits and consumer spending, necessitating a structured approach to reverse this trend and stimulate economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Industries expected to break the "involution" cycle include new energy sectors such as solar and electric vehicles, where technological innovation is seen as a key driver for differentiation and competition [4][5] - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are also highlighted, with a focus on supply-side reforms to improve capacity utilization and financial stability [5] - The consumer manufacturing sector is encouraged to enhance quality and reduce costs through digitalization, particularly in livestock farming, to mitigate the effects of cyclical price fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The stock market is anticipated to experience a shift due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential improvements in profitability for certain sectors if price stability and capacity reduction are achieved [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by policy-driven expectations, with future stages involving capacity clearing and profit recovery, similar to past supply-side reforms [6][7] - Investment strategies should focus on supply-side optimization, technological advancements, and market expansion opportunities, indicating a structural shift in the market dynamics [7][8]