格隆汇12月10日丨宝丰能源(600989.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，本公司没有风力发电项目。 ...

Report Date - The report is dated December 10, 2025 [1] Investment Ratings for Industries - No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. For example, gold shows a trend of rising due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar [2][5][9] Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: With rising interest - rate cut expectations, its trend strength is 1. The price of domestic and international gold futures and spot has different performances, and the market is affected by factors such as the US employment data and the attitude of the Bank of Japan [5][7] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The trend strength is 1, and it is affected by macro - economic factors and market sentiment [2][5][7] - **Platinum**: It has broken through the box, and attention should be paid to the previous high. The trend strength is 1 [24][26] - **Palladium**: The bottom is continuously rising, and the trend strength is 1 [24][26] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar puts pressure on its price. The trend strength is 0. The production of some mines is affected, and the import volume of China shows an increasing trend [9][11] - **Zinc**: Pressure is gradually emerging, and the trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic relations and the approval of chip sales [12][14] - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory puts pressure on the price. The trend strength is 0, and it is affected by the US employment data and interest - rate cut expectations [15][16] - **Tin**: Supply is disturbed again, and the trend strength is 0. It is affected by macro - economic news and market sentiment [18][20] - **Aluminum**: It shows a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as production data and industry news [21][23] - **Nickel**: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as Indonesian mining policies and supply - demand relationships [28][32] - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. The trend strength is 0 [28][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related Products**: - **Fuel Oil**: It has weakened again, and the center of the disk continues to move down. The trend strength is 0 [135] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [135] - **Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: It is under pressure to operate. The trend strength is - 1. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [111][115] - **Urea**: It shows an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators during the day. The trend strength is 0 [116][118] - **PVC**: The trend is weak. The trend strength is 0. The market is affected by factors such as supply, inventory, and cost [132][133] - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but it is still under pressure in the medium - to long - term. The trend strength is 0 [124][128] - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is - 1 [124][128] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and it shows an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0 [163][170] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is mediocre, and the disk shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - **Soybean**: It shows a rebound and oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [171][173] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend strength is 0 [174][177] - **Sugar**: It shows a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1 [178][181] - **Cotton**: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The trend strength is 0 [183][186] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Eggs**: The spot shows an oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [187] - **Pigs**: The market is trading the winter solstice expectation in advance. The trend strength is 0 [189][193] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [195][197] Others - **Lumber**: It shows a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [56][59] - **Paper Pulp**: It shows an oscillating operation. The trend strength is 0 [100][102] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1 [107][109] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It shows a range - bound operation. The trend strength is 0 [74][76] - **Rubber**: It shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The trend strength is 1 [71] - **Asphalt**: It shows a weak oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [78][87] - **LLDPE**: It shows a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The trend strength is 0 [91][92] - **PP**: There is selling pressure from the upstream, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The trend strength is 0 [93][94] - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The trend strength is 0 [95][98] - **PTA**: It is supported by cost, and the 5 - 9 spread is in a positive carry. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][68] - **MEG**: Multiple sets of devices have reduced their loads, and the downside space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][66][69] - **PX**: The demand is seasonally weak, the supply is still tight, and it shows a high - level oscillating market. The trend strength is - 1 [2][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [119] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is - 1 [122] - **Short - Fiber**: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - **Bottle - Chip**: There is pressure in the medium - term, and it is advisable to short the processing margin when the price is high. The trend strength is - 1 [150][151] - **Gummed Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend strength is 0 [153] - **Pure Benzene**: It shows a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [158][161] - **Shipping Index (European Route)**: It shows an oscillating market. The trend strength is 0 [137][147][149]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including policy, economic data, and international events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors are advised to pay attention to specific events and data changes in each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver rose sharply above the $60 mark, mainly boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the precious metals have fully priced in the rate cuts, so over - chasing the rise is not recommended [1][13]. - Investment advice: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting to land. Gold will show a volatile trend, and silver may face a risk of high - level decline, with increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset's statement that the Fed has a large space for interest - rate cuts implies an unexpected easing, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in a volatile manner [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job openings reached a five - month high, but the employment market still shows a weakening trend, and the US economy continues to face downward pressure. The market has fully priced in the December rate cut, and the market has become cautious before the interest - rate meeting [20]. - Investment advice: The three major stock indexes will fluctuate at high levels. Pay attention to the callback risk after the short - term profit - taking after the interest - rate meeting [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has corrected, mainly affected by policies. The Political Bureau meeting emphasizes cross - cycle adjustment, and the stock market expectations have been revised down. The more detailed deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference is worth attention [22][24]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The market sentiment has improved, and treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The bond market is entering a mild recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The market is weak due to the lack of obvious policy increments in the Political Bureau meeting and the weakening of cost support from the decline of coking coal and coke prices. Short - term steel prices still have the risk of decline [27]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and decline. Adopt an overall volatile thinking [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 5 increased, but the data cannot represent the overall December production. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to gradually ease in December [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MPOB November report. After the report is released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract on dips [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The near - month main contract of hogs rose rapidly and showed a high - level shock. However, the short - term supply pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and there is still a risk of price decline [31]. - Investment advice: Consider lightly shorting the near - month contract; treat the far - month contract with a short - term range thinking and control position risks [31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term inventory pressure of starch remains acceptable [32][34]. - Investment advice: Maintain range operation for the rice - flour price difference [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - After the rumor of the reserve auction, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price continued to decline. The impact of the reserve auction is expected to be limited [35]. - Investment advice: The decline of spot and 01 contracts is expected to be limited, while 03 and 05 contracts may be weaker. Pay attention to policy regulation and expected differences [36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is weak. The demand for power plant stockpiling has weakened, and the coal price has fallen rapidly with the accumulation of inventory. If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year [37]. - Investment advice: If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year. Pay attention to daily consumption and port inventory [38]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices weakened with the overall black fundamentals. The port inventory is rising, and the iron - making molten iron output is expected to decline. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [39]. - Investment advice: The iron - making molten iron output is expected to fall to around 2.28 million tons from the end of December to early January. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [40]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME and SHFE lead prices fluctuated and declined. There is still a risk of delivery. The demand side is strong, and the fundamentals of lead remain strong. Observe the volume of delivery [41]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, stop profit for short - term long positions and observe the delivery volume; for arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc prices fluctuated and corrected. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the supply decreased significantly. The demand for zinc may increase marginally. High - level partial profit - taking is recommended for long positions [42]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, partially stop profit for long positions to avoid macro - level fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the long - short spread position and wait and see for the internal - external spread [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company was registered. The fundamentals of polysilicon are not optimistic, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the price adjustment [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: The spot price may be difficult to fall. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the futures market after the discount to the spot price, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not optimistic. There is a short - term buying support, but there is a lack of upward drive. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals are worse than expected. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Pay attention to the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decisions. The price of nickel iron is expected to rise slightly, and the short - term bottom of the pure nickel price has been reached. [49][50] - Investment advice: Unilaterally, consider lightly going long on dips. Pay attention to the change of the Indonesian nickel ore price and the RKAB approval limit [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global key mineral competition will reshape the 2026 market pattern. The short - term macro - level risk aversion sentiment suppresses copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term [51][53]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, wait patiently for the opportunity to go long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown signed a supply agreement with Tianhua New Energy. The current supply - side impact is controllable, but future supply - side disturbances should be vigilant. The real - side situation may weaken in the short term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Lightly short on highs in the short term, and consider going long on dips after the risk of the off - season decline is released [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of overseas tin ore is unstable, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and be cautious about the risk of high - level decline [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips, but do not chase the rise. Be cautious about the price decline caused by the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflows [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA slightly raised the forecast of US crude oil production this year and lowered the forecast for next year. Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state [63][64]. - Investment advice: Maintain a volatile trend in the short term [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a short - term shock. The impact of the carry - over policy may be more emotional than substantial. Enterprises in need can buy on dips [66][67]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate in the short term [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the coal price decline also drags down the PVC price. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve [69][70]. - Investment advice: The PVC price will maintain a low - level shock pattern. Chasing short is not cost - effective [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is partially declining. The supply is high, the demand is not significantly improved, and the overall supply - demand is still loose. The short - term price may continue to be weak [71][72]. - Investment advice: The short - term price may continue to be weak. Pay attention to whether the profit compression can lead to supply reduction [72]. 3.2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The tender of the largest port in Brazil is unfavorable to Maersk and MSC. The demand has improved in the peak season, but the freight rate increase may be weak. The short - term price may decline in a volatile manner [73][74]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a weak - volatile thinking in the short term and wait and see [74].

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-09 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金 ETF 持有量微降 金价震荡收跌白银高位回落，市场等待本周美联储降息落地， 缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段，如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回 调风险，市场对降息 25bp 已经充分定价。 中央政治局会议召开 宏观策略（股指期货） 中央政治局会议召开 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 11 月中国出口增速超预期 短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放，但做多胜率和赔率均较此 前上升。 农产品（豆粕） 上周豆粕库存略降 美国将我国采购 1200 万吨大豆的目标延期至 2 月底，关注今晚 USDA 月度供需报告。我国 11 月进口大豆 810.7 万吨，同环比国 内大豆供应仍然充足，豆粕库存维持高位。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国工程机械工业协会：11 月我国挖掘机开工率为 57% 综 合 11 月中国出口大超预期，贸易顺差快速积累，前 11 月已超 1 万 亿美元，对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为 2026 年增长最为 强劲的板块。 钢价震荡回落，市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显 政策增量，市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双 ...

当前市场静候美联储12月利率决议落地。当地时间12月8日，美股整体呈弱势震荡走势，三大股指小幅 下跌；从板块及个股看，大型科技股跌多涨少，热门中概股涨跌不一，硕迪生物股价逆势大涨逾 102%。 国际银价出现调整，国际油价下跌，其中NYMEX原油期货主力合约跌破每桶60美元关口。业内机构研 判，银价短期需警惕高位剧烈震荡风险，国际油价仍然处于偏弱震荡区间。 美股三大股指小幅收跌 中概股硕迪生物涨逾102% 当地时间12月8日，美股整体呈弱势震荡走势，三大股指均小幅收跌，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别下 跌0.45%、0.14%、0.35%。 | 资料 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼一 | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | | 185.575 | 1.73% | | NVDA.O | | | | | | 微软(MICROSO ... | | | 491.020 | 1.63% | | MSFT.O | | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | | 277.890 | -0.32% ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，红利资产在交运公用、金融、能源化工、食饮、家电、地产、金属、出版等多个行业展 现出配置价值。在交运公用领域，公路、港口、铁路等长久期资产具备防御稳健性，其中公路行业推荐 具备成长潜力的优质高速资产；港口行业海外布局及分红比例提升推升估值弹性；铁路行业受益改革红 利，黄金线路资产具备价格弹性潜力。金融板块中，银行股息率高且资产质量安全边际充足，中长期投 资价值持续。能源化工行业方面，油气作为能源安全基石，长期现金流有保障，资本开支趋势性下修； 煤炭行业反内卷政策超预期，供给约束下行业盈利稳定性增强。金属行业中电解铝企业进入现金流修复 阶段，供需紧平衡支撑铝价，行业吨铝利润有望维持高位。出版行业教育出版主业稳健，稳定高分红叠 加AI教育等新方向布局，配置价值突出。整体来看，红利 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司，美国石 油钻机数量上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-08 晨 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作 报 A 股短期内受保险新规提振，但行情并未大幅放量，总体上资金 仍然处于观望状态。宏观周来临，将为股市定调。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 11 月下旬重点钢企粗钢日产 181.8 万吨 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司 周五金价震荡收跌至 4200 美金下方，日内波动增加，美国 9 月 核心 PCE 同比 2.8%基本符合预期，市场对于本周 12 月利率会 议降息 25bp 也定价充分。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 11 月物价指数符合预期 综 美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价符合预期，通胀压力放缓，市场风险偏 好回升，美元指数走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 钢价震荡运行，近期五大品种去库尚可，但卷板绝对库存压力 较高。钢价趋势性驱动依然不强。临近年末，市场政策预期升 温，关注预期落地情况。 农产品（豆粕） 阿根廷大豆播种完成 49% 市场仍不确定美豆出口改善程度，此外 USDA 预测明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in Shaanxi's regional development strategy emphasizes the dual-polar model, positioning Xi'an and Yulin as key growth poles, which marks a significant shift in the province's economic layout [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlighted Yulin's importance, aiming to enhance its role as a significant growth pole alongside Xi'an [5]. - The new strategy includes "dual-polar drive, multi-point support, and three-region collaboration," focusing on the synergy between the Guanzhong, Northern Shaanxi, and Southern Shaanxi regions [2][3]. Group 2: Yulin's Economic Position - Yulin's GDP reached 844.1 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 45.9% of Shaanxi's industrial output, solidifying its status as the second city in the province and the leading non-capital city in inland China [8]. - Yulin's designation as a national energy and chemical base enhances its strategic value beyond provincial boundaries, reflecting its critical role in national energy security [8][9]. Group 3: Implications for Yulin - The establishment of Yulin as a dual-polar city is expected to lead to increased support in resource allocation, infrastructure development, and policy incentives, facilitating its transformation from an energy town to a comprehensive city [9][11]. - Yulin's upgraded status aligns with national strategies, positioning it as a core support for ecological protection and high-quality development along the Yellow River [9][11]. Group 4: Relationship with Xi'an - The elevation of Yulin's status does not necessarily threaten Xi'an's position as a strong provincial capital; rather, it may relieve some pressure on Xi'an, allowing it to focus on its strengths in technology, culture, and advanced manufacturing [13][14]. - The complementary relationship between Xi'an and Yulin suggests that both cities can thrive together, with Xi'an leading in innovation and Yulin providing essential energy support [14][15]. Group 5: Broader Implications - Shaanxi's strategy may serve as a model for other inland provinces seeking to develop secondary growth poles that can stand alongside their capital cities [17]. - The potential for creating a comparable growth pole outside the capital city is highlighted, showcasing the possibility of building a robust regional economy through strategic adjustments [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - **Quantitative Analysis**: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - **Glass**: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - **Lead**: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - **Eggs**: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - **Apples**: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - **Corn**: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - **Rubber**: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Urea**: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].