Group 1: Agricultural Achievements - Sichuan has maintained national leadership in the production of 15 agricultural products, including pigs and rapeseed, contributing significantly to national food security [1][2] - The total grain production in 2024 is projected to reach 726.8 billion jin, maintaining a stable output above 700 billion jin for five consecutive years, with a historical high in both total and per unit yield [2] Group 2: Industrial Growth - The annual growth rate of industrial added value in Sichuan is 6.6%, with total industrial added value increasing from 1.34 trillion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan, elevating its national ranking to seventh [1][2] - Research and development investments in large-scale industrial enterprises have increased by 50%, with R&D intensity rising by 41%, while the profit margin for these enterprises stands at 7.3%, ranking first among the top ten economic provinces [2] Group 3: Service Sector Development - The service sector's contribution to GDP has risen from 52.4% in 2020 to 56%, with its contribution to economic growth increasing from 42.5% to 60.5% [1][3] - Sichuan's service sector has shown significant growth, achieving its "14th Five-Year Plan" goals a year ahead of schedule [3]

Core Insights - The Sichuan provincial government has reported significant achievements in building a modern industrial system during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting steady growth in industrial scale and quality [1] Industrial Growth - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the annual growth rate of Sichuan's industrial added value has been 6.6%, increasing from 1.34 trillion yuan to 1.79 trillion yuan, elevating its national ranking to 7th [3] - Research and development (R&D) investment and intensity in large-scale industrial enterprises have increased by 50% and 41%, respectively [3] - Revenue from green and low-carbon industries now accounts for 28.2% of the total industrial revenue, with energy consumption per unit of added value decreasing by 15.4% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] Industry Transformation - Sichuan is focusing on upgrading traditional industries while simultaneously developing emerging and future industries, with electronic information, food and textiles, and energy and chemicals each surpassing the trillion-yuan mark [3] - The province is actively developing 17 key industrial chains, including artificial intelligence and aerospace, and is fostering 25 new industrial tracks, such as robotics and quantum technology [3] Innovation and Technology - Sichuan has increased investment in technological innovation, establishing 1,819 national and provincial enterprise technology centers, the highest in Western China [4] - The province has undertaken nearly 30 national major science and technology projects and has launched 62 engineering technology innovation projects [4] - Notable achievements include the mass delivery of the Y-20 and C919 aircraft, the development of the world's first gallium nitride quantum light source chip, and the launch of the first hydrogen-powered regional train [4] Investment and Development - Sichuan has implemented over 15,000 manufacturing projects since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," driving manufacturing investment beyond 2 trillion yuan, with both manufacturing and industrial investments maintaining double-digit growth [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The artificial intelligence industry in Sichuan is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% [5] - The digital transformation coverage among large-scale industrial enterprises has increased by over 20 percentage points, with plans for full coverage by the end of 2027 [5] - Sichuan has cultivated 745 national and provincial green factories and 100 green industrial parks, leading in the number of such facilities in Western China [5] Industrial Landscape - As of now, Sichuan has 19,900 large-scale industrial enterprises, 134 publicly listed industrial companies, and has nurtured 486 national specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [5]

Group 1: Domestic Consumption and Travel Market - During the double holiday period, the domestic consumption and travel market showed strong recovery momentum, with an average daily cross-regional flow of 304 million people, up 6.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [1] - Self-driving travel dominated, with an average daily flow of over 240 million small passenger cars on highways, accounting for about 80% of total travel [1] - The increase in electric vehicle travel significantly boosted the payment amount for charging stations, which rose by over 40% year-on-year [1] - Railway and civil aviation passenger volumes steadily recovered, with the "high-speed rail + airplane" travel model gaining popularity [1] - Outbound tourism saw a notable rebound, with an average of over 2 million inbound and outbound travelers per day during the holiday, up 7% year-on-year [1] - New trends in destination choices emerged, such as "taste tours" focusing on food and "small town tours" emphasizing cost-effectiveness, indicating strong consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continued to lead the commodity market rebound, while the agricultural products sector showed weaker recovery [2] - Gold, supported by fundamentals and macro disturbances, has seen a strategic shift in central bank purchasing behavior, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching approximately 2303.5 tons by the end of September [2] - The ongoing growth in official demand is positioning gold as a "timeless asset," reflecting concerns over the U.S. dollar credit system and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Silver has strengthened relative to gold due to expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with its dual role as a financial and industrial asset providing greater elasticity [3] - In the industrial metals sector, the copper market is undergoing a fundamental shift due to rising resource nationalism, impacting supply stability and costs [4] - Supply growth for copper is expected to decline from 1.8% to below 1.5% in the next 2-3 years, while demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy is projected to maintain a growth rate of 2.2%-2.5% [5] - The oil market is facing a different scenario, with OPEC+ implementing a gradual production increase strategy, potentially leading to a surplus of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day by 2026 [5]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Core Insights - The report highlights SK Group's commitment to social, environmental, and economic responsibilities in China, emphasizing its "happiness management" philosophy and strategic alignment with China's development [1][2]. Group Overview - SK Group has been operating in China since 1991, with 18 member companies and 57 legal entities, employing 25,000 people and investing a total of $54.4 billion [1]. - The company operates in various sectors, including semiconductors, new energy, energy chemicals, and biopharmaceuticals, with SK Hynix being the only foreign company covering the entire DRAM and NAND flash memory supply chain in China [1][2]. Social Value Creation - SK Group's "Double Bottom Line" (DBL) strategy resulted in a social value achievement of $1.89 billion at the group level and 20.4 million RMB in China, marking a 32% year-on-year increase [2][37]. - Initiatives include establishing a public welfare foundation, sponsoring academic forums, and projects like the "Green Great Wall" for desertification prevention, with the "Happiness Alliance" project covering 21 primary schools across 8 provinces [2][37]. Environmental Responsibility - SK has joined the RE100 initiative and announced a "Net Zero" declaration, setting a "2050-α" emissions reduction target [2][41]. - In 2024, SK's operations in China achieved significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through technological upgrades, with SK Hynix's Wuxi entity achieving "zero waste to landfill" platinum certification for two consecutive years [2][41]. Governance and Collaboration - SK has established a governance system that exceeds international standards, enhancing board independence and professionalism, and conducting extensive training for suppliers on social responsibility [3]. - The company collaborates with various stakeholders, including government and educational institutions, to promote technology and standards exchange [3]. Future Focus - SK plans to continue focusing on technological innovation in semiconductors and new energy, deepening localization strategies, and building a comprehensive green practice system to support China's industrial upgrade and sustainable development [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. Sectors like energy storage, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, the main idea is to go long on dips [2][3]. - For the bond market in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - For most non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply tightening, macro - policy easing, and relatively stable demand support price increases, but different metals have different specific driving factors and price trends [8][9][10][11]. - For black building materials, the current steel demand is weak, but with the macro - environment turning loose, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. For other varieties in the black building materials sector, different trends and influencing factors exist [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some varieties are expected to maintain a volatile trend, while others have opportunities for short - term long positions or risks of decline [50][52][54]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand relationship of different varieties is unbalanced. Some are in a situation of oversupply and prices are under pressure, while others are expected to be strong due to factors such as policy support and supply - demand expectations [73][74][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year" capital market plan for listed companies and industry institutions. During the holiday, non - ferrous metal futures such as precious metals, copper, and aluminum closed higher. Global storage chip prices are rising, and the storage chip industry is expected to enter a "super cycle". China's nuclear fusion device BEST has made a key breakthrough [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors have diverged, and the market volume has shrunk. Short - term index fluctuations have increased, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On September 30, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The cross - regional personnel flow during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays reached 2.36 billion person - times. The US September non - farm payrolls data was postponed due to the government "shutdown". The central bank conducted 2422 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 339 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In September, the manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but was still below the boom - bust line. The "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level, but the subsequent social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and there are still expectations of monetary easing and the central bank restarting bond purchases. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: COMEX gold and silver prices fell. During the National Day, overseas risk events impacted the US dollar credit, and gold prices rose. The Fed officials had differences in the follow - up interest rate path, and the market expected further interest rate cuts [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term long - position thinking for precious metals. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and price dips are good opportunities to enter long positions [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, overseas non - ferrous metal prices were generally strong. LME copper prices rose, and overseas exchange copper inventories changed differently. Chile's August copper production decreased, and domestic September electrolytic copper production also decreased [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and macro - policy easing support copper prices, and demand is not significantly weak. Copper prices are expected to remain strong [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production and operating capacity were relatively stable, with the proportion of molten aluminum increasing [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment supports the aluminum price. With the increase in the domestic molten aluminum proportion and the seasonal recovery of consumption, the aluminum price is expected to rise [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai zinc index fell slightly. During the holiday, the LME zinc price rose, and the inventory decreased. The structural risk of LME zinc strengthened [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelting and downstream enterprises maintained normal production. The non - ferrous metal sector was strong, and the Shanghai zinc price is expected to be strong after the holiday [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. During the holiday, the LME lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The lead price structure was under pressure [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, domestic lead smelting enterprises maintained normal production, and downstream battery enterprises had a shorter holiday. The lead price is expected to be weak and volatile after the holiday [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the nickel price fluctuated. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, the nickel price fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream enterprises had low enthusiasm for stocking [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, which drags down the nickel price. In the medium - and long - term, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the LME tin price was strong. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand in the new energy and AI fields was good, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance fields were still weak [19][20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: On September 30, the carbonate lithium spot index and futures prices fell [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the double festivals, the strong demand in the lithium - battery downstream supports the price, while the supply replenishment expectation suppresses the upside space. Pay attention to the supply continuity of the resource end and the realization of strong demand expectations [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 30, the alumina index fell. The domestic spot price fell, and the overseas price was stable. The import window was opened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel futures price fell slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, the stainless steel market was in a tug - of - war between cost support and weak demand. If the supply pressure increases after the holiday, the price may continue to decline [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the National Day, the cast aluminum alloy futures price was weak. During the holiday, the cost of raw aluminum rose. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. The support comes from the rise in the cost of raw materials [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the National Day holiday, steel demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. Although the macro - environment is turning loose, the short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse. The steel price may decline, and attention should be paid to policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: On September 30, the iron ore futures price fell slightly. During the holiday, the TSI iron ore price rose. Two news events affected the Singapore iron ore market, but the price returned to stability [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: During the holiday, steel mills maintained production, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the glass futures price fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. The inventory decreased. The soda ash futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The inventory decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with weak terminal demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The soda ash market is stable with narrow fluctuations, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [34][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. The spot price also decreased. The prices of both are in the shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may experience a short - term downward correction, but in the long - term, it may have the value of long - position allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black sector [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: On September 30, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The polysilicon futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [41][43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is stable in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon price may have a short - term decline risk, and attention should be paid to policy changes [42][44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the prices of Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. The Thai spot prices were mixed. The开工 rate of domestic tire enterprises was different, and the inventory decreased [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a medium - term long - position thinking. In the short - term, it is recommended to set a stop - loss, enter short - term long positions quickly, and consider partial hedging operations [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: During the National Day, the international crude oil market fluctuated. The WTI and Brent crude oil prices were at a certain level. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased. The OPEC meeting decided on a "principle - based low - speed production increase" [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC's production increase plan will suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil prices fluctuated. Before the holiday, the methanol spot and futures prices changed. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol supply - demand situation has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the urea spot price in some regions decreased. Before the holiday, the futures price rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [55][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is at a low level. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene spot and futures prices fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the approaching seasonal peak season. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The spot price decreased, and the cost was stable. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply increased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply is high. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The spot price decreased. The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The CFR price rose. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may fluctuate upward. The cost has support, and the demand is expected to increase [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose. The spot price was stable. The supply was under pressure, and the demand increased. The inventory was under pressure [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic pig price fell, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse hedging. Attention should be paid to post - holiday fluctuations [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the domestic egg price fell, the supply was large, and the demand was weak [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price may be weak after the holiday, but there may be support from potential inventory transfer. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, the CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean meal spot price changed slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress was faster than before [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may decrease. The Malaysian palm oil price rose during the holiday [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil and fat prices are expected to be strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. During the holiday, the raw sugar price changed little. The Brazilian sugar production data was released [81][82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the large - scale. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. During the holiday, the US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton purchase price was lower than last year, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" was weak [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton price is likely to be weak after the National Day. The cost support is around 12860 - 13130 yuan/ton [85].

Group 1 - The international commodity market showed strong performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with precious metals being the most notable, as COMEX gold prices reached $4000 per ounce and COMEX silver approached $49 per ounce, while spot gold hit a historical high [1] - Analysts predict a structural differentiation in the domestic commodity market post-holiday due to multiple variables, including political turmoil in some foreign economies and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has created a "data vacuum" affecting market sentiment [2][3] - The strong performance of precious metals is driven by heightened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased safe-haven demand due to concerns over U.S. fiscal policy sustainability amid the government shutdown [3] Group 2 - The copper market also showed strength, with LME copper prices surpassing $10,000 per ton, driven by expectations of looser macro liquidity, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand from the renewable energy sector [3] - In contrast, the energy and chemical sectors experienced weakness due to significant declines in international oil prices, which reduced cost support for domestic energy and chemical markets [3] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of certain commodities (like precious and non-ferrous metals) may positively influence related domestic products, while those with weaker fundamentals may continue to adjust, leading to a "stronger strong, weaker weak" market characteristic [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Ningxia has developed a distinctive industrial system supported by local policies and regional development strategies, attracting capital market attention [1] - The "Ningxia concept" refers to listed companies registered or primarily operating in Ningxia, benefiting from local resource endowments, policy support, and industrial planning [1] - Key sectors in Ningxia's industrial chain include energy chemicals, new materials, modern agriculture, and renewable energy [1] Group 2: Energy and Chemicals - Energy chemicals are a traditional advantage for Ningxia, leveraging abundant coal resources to form deep processing industries such as coal-to-oil and coal chemicals [1] - Companies in this sector are competitive in clean coal utilization and fine chemicals, with ongoing upgrades towards high-end chemicals and circular economy [1] Group 3: New Materials - The new materials industry has seen rapid development, particularly in carbon-based materials, rare metal processing, and high-performance fibers [1] - Ningxia has cultivated a number of technology-driven enterprises that serve critical sectors like electronic information, aerospace, and high-end manufacturing [1] Group 4: Agriculture - Ningxia's unique geographical and climatic conditions have fostered specialty agriculture, exemplified by goji berries, wine, and dairy industries [2] - The Zhongning goji berry is renowned nationwide, while the Helan Mountain eastern foothills are a significant wine production area in China [2] - These specialty industries have stimulated the development of planting, processing, and brand operation chains, promoting rural revitalization and agricultural tourism [2] Group 5: Renewable Energy - Ningxia is rich in wind and solar resources, playing a crucial role in the national "West-to-East Power Transmission" project [2] - Recent years have seen accelerated implementation of clean energy projects like photovoltaics and wind power, fostering growth in related industries such as renewable equipment manufacturing, energy storage technology, and electricity export [2] Group 6: Investment Considerations - The Ningxia concept represents an ecosystem of industries that rely on local resources, respond to national strategies, and continuously upgrade [2] - Investors should consider policy direction, industry cycles, and company fundamentals when evaluating opportunities in this region [2]