2025年05月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | | 观点与策略 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金：下破支撑位 | | 2 | | 白银：震荡回落 | | 2 | | 铜：美元下测后回升，限制价格上涨 | | 4 | | 铝：偏强运行 | | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | | 6 | | 锌：短期存支撑 | | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

Group 1 - Chile's total export value is projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2024, reaching $100.163 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] - Copper remains the largest export product, with an export value of $50.858 billion, while non-traditional exports such as fruits and seafood totaled $43.755 billion, remaining stable compared to 2023 [1] - Fresh fruit exports have shown significant growth, reaching $8.245 billion, with an increase of 28.6% [1] - Service exports also reached a record high of $2.869 billion in 2024, marking an 18% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The Chilean government has implemented measures to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural exports, including increasing labor supply and infrastructure investment [2] - In the service trade sector, an electronic platform called "Chile Services" was established to assist service exporters with VAT refunds and market access [2] - The Chilean Export Promotion Agency launched a competition in July 2024 to support entrepreneurship and service industries, providing funding for international exhibitions and legal consulting [2] Group 3 - In 2024, 8,567 Chilean companies engaged in export activities, with 53% being small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [3] - Chile hosted its first Global Solutions Export Matching Conference in 2024 and supported SMEs in participating in international industry meetings [3] - An upgraded free trade agreement with Mexico includes provisions for SMEs, enhancing their participation in foreign trade [3] Group 4 - China remains Chile's largest export destination, with exports to China reaching $37.835 billion, accounting for over 37% of total exports, and a year-on-year increase of 6% [4] - During the ninth "Chile Week" in December, 25 Chilean companies promoted products such as fresh fruits, wine, and meat in China [4] - Two significant agreements were signed with China, facilitating the transport of fresh fruits and including chilled pork in the list of products allowed for export [4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-14 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 4 月通胀数据平稳，或是通胀风暴前的平静 观点分享： 5 月 13 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 4 月 CPI 数据，CPI 同比增长 2.3%，预期 2.4%， 前值 2.4%；CPI 环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，为自 2021 年春季通胀爆发以来的最低速度；预期 2.8%，前值 2.8%；核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%， 预期 0.3% ，前值 0.1%。所谓的"超级核心 CPI"（服务业除住房外）同比跌至 3.01%，为 2021 年 12 月以来的最低水平。众所周知，4 月以来，特朗普开始了过山车般的关税政策， 然而通胀数据依然保持稳定，一种合理的解释是：大部分市场主体以观望和消化库存为首要 策略，而不是因关税而调整价格。但库存总有耗尽的时候，价格该调整还是得调整，4 月的 平静大概率如台风登录前一日的风和日丽，只是大风大雨到来的前奏。尽管特朗普已经在社 交媒体上表达"美联储必须 ...

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）网站公布，Codelco和力拓宣布了一项新的合作协议，旨在加速智利阿塔 卡马地区Nuevo Cobre周边矿区的潜在开发。 Nuevo Cobre是力拓集团(57.74%)和Codelco(42.26%)的合资企业，成立于2023年，旨在勘探和开发位于 Potrerillos冶炼厂东南 10公里处的矿产资源。圣安东尼奥 (San Antonio) 是Codelco旗下的一个矿业公司， 毗邻Nuevo Cobre。该地区的地质潜力和两个项目的接近性为建立采矿区提供了机会。通过该协议，双 方将合作评估机遇、发现协同效应并降低风险。 "合作是可持续采矿的根本支柱。这是应对日益苛刻的项目挑战的最佳方式。此次，两家全球行业领袖 携手合作，共同释放该矿区的全部潜力。"智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）董事会主席马克西莫·帕切科 （Máximo Pacheco）表示。 该协议规定，力拓集团和智利国家铜业公司将成立联合委员会，并由力拓集团和智利国家铜业公司各提 供同等资金，进行为期12个月的初步概念研究，并有可能延长。 力拓首席执行官雅各布·斯陶霍尔姆表示："这是我们与智利国家铜业公司合作推 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜上涨，中美会谈取得实质性进展推动市场乐观情绪，盘后发布的联合公告显 示中美均将双方关税降至了可贸易范畴内，短期关税对双方经济的冲击担忧均下 降，利多风险资产。05 合约交割临近，在 05-06back 依旧维持在 300+情况下，现 货市场转为贴水报价，但若贴水扩大或将带动交割情绪上升，考虑到 5 月有累库 预期且日内公布的库存累库 0.3 万吨，预计本次交割能顺利完成，5 月国内产量 继续增加而需求放缓，预计盘面高 BACK 结构难持 ...

铜周报 关注中美谈判结果，铜价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位震荡，主因中美经贸会谈启动暂缓紧张局 势，市场对此持观望态度，美联储鹰派立场延迟降息略提 振美元，关税冲击对全球经济体的负面效应逐步显现，铜 价上行受阻但海外精铜紧缺提供较强基本面支撑；国内方 面，央行一揽子金融增量政策提振市场信心，我国经济加 速内循环及与"一带一路"国家构建战略合作体系将有效 对冲美国关税带来的负面影响。基本面来看，现货TC负值 扩大，全球库存持续下滑，洋山铜仓单溢价高企，盘面近 月B结构走扩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh ...

藏格矿业 20250509 摘要 • 藏格矿业计划分年度逐步释放氯化钾、碳酸锂、铜三大品种的产能，氯化 钾保持稳定增长，碳酸锂优先开发新增项目，巨龙铜矿按计划推进二期和 三期建设，预计显著提高公司整体业务效能和管理效率。 • 巨龙铜业一季度矿产铜产量达到 4.6 万吨，每吨净利润约 4.3 万元，高于 2024 年的 3.8 万元，主要受益于 COMEX 联动上涨和成本优化。二期项 目预计年底投产，明年将大规模释放产能，进一步优化成本并提高投资回 报。 • 玛米错盐湖锂离子含量是察汗盐湖的 10 倍以上，预计碳酸锂生产成本为 每吨 3.1 万元，较现有成本节约近 1 万元。矿权申请已完成前置准备，预 计 2026 年一二季度建成投产，下半年部分产能释放，公司整体成本将阶 梯式下降。 • 公司持续跟踪固态电池技术发展，计划组建新团队跟踪硫化锂等相关产品 进展，以便进行相应布局。杰泽茶卡和龙木措两个锂盐项目远期规划共计 13 万吨，目前大股东国能集团委托蓝晓进行 1 万吨 EPC 代建项目。 Q&A 藏格矿业 2025 年第一季度的经营情况如何？ 2025 年第一季度，藏格矿业氯化钾的产量为 15.94 万吨，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The control of Cangge Mining has shifted to Zijin Mining Group, which now holds 26.18% of the shares and has achieved financial consolidation despite not owning a majority stake [1][3][4]. Group 1: Control Transfer and Shareholding Changes - Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of Cangge Mining's control within four months, spending 137.29 billion yuan to acquire approximately 392 million shares at 35 yuan per share, representing 24.98% of Cangge Mining's total equity [3][4]. - Following the transfer, the shareholding of the original controller, Xiao Yongming, decreased to 20.13%, with voting rights at 15.1%, while Zijin Mining's voting rights increased to 26.18% [4]. - The board of directors of Cangge Mining underwent significant changes, with most seats now held by Zijin Mining personnel, indicating a complete shift in governance [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - Cangge Mining, a key player in the lithium mining sector, reported a total revenue of 32.51 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.80 billion yuan, down 24.56% [7]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, with the average market price for lithium carbonate dropping by 67.04% to 90,100 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][8]. - Despite the downturn, analysts project steady growth for Cangge Mining, with expected revenues of 33.39 billion yuan, 39.88 billion yuan, and 48.63 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7].

Market Review - The copper futures in Shanghai experienced a rise followed by a decline, closing below the 60-day moving average [1] Fundamental Summary - Codelco's copper production in March increased by 14.8% year-on-year, reaching 123,200 tons, indicating an enhancement in copper market supply capacity [2] - In the first four months, China imported 1.742 million tons of unrefined copper and copper materials, a decrease of 3.9%, with an average price of 69,000 yuan per ton, up by 8.5% [2] - As of May 8, total copper inventory in Shanghai was 12,522 tons, down by 902 tons from the previous day; Guangdong's inventory was 5,949 tons, down by 99 tons; Jiangsu's inventory was 1,069 tons, down by 1,000 tons; and Zhejiang's inventory remained unchanged at 0 tons, totaling 19,540 tons, a decrease of 2,001 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that the macro environment improved with the agreement on tariff trade terms between the UK and the US, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in US stock markets. The tight supply of copper ore and scrap remains unchanged, with domestic inventory showing a significant reduction [3] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the continuous decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories, alongside an increase in COMEX copper inventories, indicates a reshaping of the copper trade landscape. Domestic supply tightness supports copper prices, with a positive demand trend expected due to investments in power equipment and data centers [3]

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...