Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The progress of Sino-US trade is better than expected, boosting market demand. The European route is starting to return to the mid-year peak season price increase logic. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The short - term market may continue to game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. - From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", and the freight rates of most long - haul routes increased. However, the future economic recovery prospects in Europe and the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects still face uncertainties [9]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, which is an important step in resolving differences through dialogue and lays the foundation for further cooperation. Both sides agreed on multiple positive consensuses and measures such as tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Sino - US trade progress boosts market demand. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The price in late May has a small increase, and the price in early June has a significant increase of up to 100%, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The short - term market may game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", the transport demand recovered, and the comprehensive index increased [9]. - **European Route**: The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in May was better than expected, but the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects are unclear, and the freight rate decreased slightly [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation is similar to the European route, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly [9]. - **North American Route**: After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the transport demand recovered significantly, the cabin supply was tight, and the spot market booking price increased significantly [9][10]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, with both sides agreeing on tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.9% from May 12th to May 19th, and the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 0.6% [13]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as the trends of the main and sub - main contracts of container shipping European route futures are presented [18]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as global container capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are presented [19][22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China trade relations and tariff policies on shipping demand and pricing dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Demand**: The average tariffs between the U.S. and China are currently between 48% and 55%, significantly pressuring Chinese manufacturing and potentially affecting corporate profitability and stock performance [1][3][4]. - **Shipping Rate Increases**: Container shipping companies have rapidly increased rates, with prices on the West Coast reaching $3,000 and the East Coast hitting $4,000. This reflects an intention to recover previous losses and enter a profit growth phase [1][5]. - **Inventory Replenishment Trends**: Although U.S. container imports are higher than last year, there has been a decline in freight volume between China and the U.S. from mid-April to mid-May, indicating that actual replenishment efforts are below expectations [1][8]. - **Supply Constraints**: The West Coast is experiencing a significant under-allocation of shipping capacity, which is expected to lead to a new round of price increases in June, potentially surpassing historical highs [1][10]. - **Future Demand Projections**: U.S. goods demand is expected to be stronger in 2025 compared to 2024, but there may be a cooling period post-tariff adjustments. Overall freight volume is anticipated to increase throughout the year [1][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Pricing Dynamics**: The concentration of capacity allocation on South American routes is leading to price increases, while the overall impact on other routes remains limited [3][13]. - **Market Adjustments by Smaller Companies**: Smaller shipping companies in Southeast Asia are adjusting their routes to capitalize on profit opportunities, indicating a competitive market environment [14][16]. - **ETF and Stock Performance**: The expansion of ETF sizes and the inclusion of companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings in dividend indices are changing stock pricing models, leading to reduced volatility and more stable investment options [21][23][24]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The expectation is that broad-based ETFs will dominate, while industry-specific ETFs will have a lower share, influencing stock prices through index-based pricing mechanisms [25]. - **Impact of U.S. Inventory Replenishment**: The anticipated monthly replenishment in the U.S. is expected to exceed current shipping capacity, necessitating higher demands on shipping routes [26]. - **Potential Port Congestion**: There is a possibility of renewed congestion at U.S. ports, although not to the extent seen during the pandemic, which could still affect other shipping routes [27]. - **Regional Company Performance**: Companies like SeaLand International are benefiting from the supply contraction in Southeast Asia and stable demand, although challenges may arise in 2026 as U.S. inventory cycles decline [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry amidst evolving trade dynamics.

关税缓和下的周期机会 20250518 摘要 • 短期外贸数据可能因抢出口而表现良好，但美国对中国加征 30%关税的中 长期影响不容忽视，或对经济构成压力，但对债券市场影响有限。 • 化工行业估值处于历史低位，具备配置良机。中证细分化工龙头指数表现 优于沪深 300，且化工品价格显著回升，成本端压力下降，产业周期迎来 拐点。 • 化工行业资本支出连续两年下降，预示产品周期拐点。龙头公司如万华、 卫星等将在 2025 年底至 2026 年初迎来确定性增量，带来可观净值增长。 • 关税扰动下，钢铁板块出现抢出口现象，但实际影响有限。应关注基础材 料板块的投资机会，包括基建相关、高分红及海外布局良好的公司。 • 中美关税缓和提升宏观风险偏好，为有色金属行业提供阶段性投资机会， 尤其利好铝行业短期需求，间接出口的恢复将提振行业整体需求。 • 几内亚政府收回部分铝土矿矿权，导致氧化铝价格上涨。建议关注拥有低 成本一体化布局的矿业公司，如中国铝业、中国宏桥、南山国际等。 • 关税缓和对集运和航空领域有直接影响。集运运价中枢预计提高，盈利预 测及估值上调。航空业供给端压缩、需求端回暖，盈利预计大幅改善。 Q&A 关税缓和对 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货5月14日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,488.0 | 1,502.0 | 1,726.0 | 1,643.9 | 238.0 | 15 ...

1 、 《 解读深圳科技金融"25条"新政》摘要 ■ 关注 科技信贷提供商 与 知识产权评估服务商 （如中证信用、国家知识产权运营平台相关企业）， 以及受益的高成长科技公司（生物医药、半导体、人工智能等）。 ■ 利好 创投机构、政府引导基金管理方 （如深创投、深圳高新投），也可能推动更多保险公司（科 技险业务）创新布局。 ■ 深圳有望成为 科技金融基础设施建设和制度创新的领先区域 ，建议关注与 金融科技平台、区域性 数据征信系统、知识产权交易中心 等相关的政策受益标的。 2、 《 中美关税谈判超预期，美线5月舱位几近订满 》 摘要 ■ 5月中旬中美达成超预期的关税协议，取消91%的加征和反制关税，并互相暂停24%的"对等关税"， 这直接打开了一个90天的低税率出口窗口。 ■ 短期内，大量中国出口企业，尤其是面向美国市场的制造商和贸易商开始加速发货，迅速带动了跨 太平洋航线的舱位需求激增。 ■ 尽管早期市场反应有所滞后，但5月13日起"爆舱"现象已经逐步显现，包括马士基、地中海航运等 主要航司都已感受到客户集中下单压力。 ■ 疫情后航运公司普遍对航线运力采取灵活调控策略，从4月起已有多家船司在美线缩减航班、临时 ...

PPI：油价强势反弹 生产：轮胎开工率降至年内次低 需求：集运运价指数止跌 CPI：猪价低位拉锯 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性下行。5 月 13 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 74.7 万吨，较 5 月 6 日的 75.1 万吨下降 0.6%。5 月 7 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 173.7 万吨，较 4 月 28 日的 186.7 万吨下降 7.0%。 (2) 高炉开工率维持高位。5 月 9 日，全国高炉开工率 84.6%，较 5 月 2 日上升 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 92.1%， 较 5 月 2 日上升 0.1 个百分点。5 月 9 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 94.3%，较 5 月 2 日持平。 (3) 轮胎开工率降至年内次低。5 月 8 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 44.8%，较 5 月 1 日下降 11.5 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 58.4%，较 5 月 1 日下降 14.1 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织机开工率小幅回升。5 月 8 日，江浙地区涤纶长丝开工率 92.0%，较 5 月 1 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货5月13日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2506 | 1,385.0 | 1,497.0 | 1,465.2 ...

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

5/12 以色列代表团将前往多哈进行停火谈判。以色列总理办公室12日发表声明说，以代表团将于13日前往卡塔尔首都多哈，同 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）就加沙地带停火协议进行间接谈判。声明说，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天同到访的美国中东问题 特使史蒂文·威特科夫和美国驻以大使迈克·赫卡比举行会谈，强调谈判将"只会在炮火下"进行。另据以色列媒体12日报道，哈 马斯当天在加沙地带南部的汗尤尼斯释放了具有美国和以色列双重国籍的被扣押人员艾丹·亚历山大。 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布, EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EC远期曲线 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 -652 60 500 2510 75 2025/4/23 2025/5/12 2025/3/17 2025/4/7 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导航 | ...