1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is risk defense, and after the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline. The black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors are all affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, with different trends and investment suggestions for each variety [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the government work report, emphasizing more proactive macro - policies. The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, leading to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, which impacted the Middle East financial market. The conflict may last for about four weeks, and Iran has launched counter - attacks. The global shipping industry has been affected, and some shipping companies have adjusted their routes [4][5][6]. - In China, the 2026 National Two Sessions will be held, and economic data such as February PMI, foreign exchange, and gold reserves will be released. Internationally, the situation in Iran, the Russia - US - Ukraine negotiations, the Fed's Beige Book, and the February non - farm payroll report are attracting attention. Many companies will release their financial reports [5]. - South Korea's exports in February increased by 29% year - on - year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 160.8%. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0. The US January PPI and core PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises from January to February decreased by 52.4% year - on - year [6][7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is risk defense. After the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market [9]. Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel mills' orders are mixed, and downstream demand is weak. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The overall steel price is expected to fluctuate, with suggestions to sell the wide - straddle option and hold it, and to take profit on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term and hold some short positions lightly in the long term [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover faster than the demand, and the market is expected to continue the weak - fluctuation trend [14]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to hold long positions as the market is in a tight - balance state on a monthly basis. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is in a state of monthly surplus [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [16]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, copper prices may rise with precious metals in the short term but will return to their own logic later, with a wide - range fluctuation [17]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to maintain the previous bearish view [19]. Lead - The social inventory of lead has increased, but consumption is expected to improve in March. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, as supply disturbances increase the expectation of tight raw materials, and demand is improving [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to operate within the range for both [25]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to be bullish, with attention paid to post - holiday demand and geopolitical impacts [27]. Sugar - The sugar market is in a state of short - term supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply surplus has been adjusted downward [28]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise slightly in March, but the futures price may enter a shock pattern. The far - month contracts are under pressure [30]. Apples - High - quality apple sources are expected to be strong, and the futures price may be bullish [32]. Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Corn faces short - term pressure but is supported by low inventory [33]. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention paid to sales and inventory [34]. Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and it is not recommended to short the near - month futures [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical factors. The price may rise, but the increase is limited. The market has high uncertainty [37]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of geopolitical - led oil prices on fuel oil, which is currently bullish [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure but are supported by rising raw material prices. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [41]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading, and the price may continue to decline in the short term [42]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on Iran's methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock view [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the supply - demand relationship and the impact of warehouse receipts [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow oil prices, with a smaller increase. Pay attention to post - winter - storage replenishment demand [45]. PVC - PVC may be bullish in the short term but has not improved in terms of core supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to be cautious and operate in a range [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the polyester industry chain is under supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a positive spread for PX or PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. It is recommended to wait and see due to increased volatility [48]. Pulp - The port inventory of pulp has reached a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Pay attention to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [50]. Logs - The forward spot price of logs is supported by cost. Pay attention to the impact of new delivery rules and the resumption of work in processing plants [51]. Urea - It is recommended to short on rallies in the urea futures market. The spot price has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened [52].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素周报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 尿素周评：上个交易周UR05上涨0.76%，收于1847，合计增仓约36000张。技术上看，近期UR主力 合约运行在20日均线上，技术走势偏多。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期UR高胜率席位持仓偏空。 • UR主力合约基差-17，盘面升水。 • 基本面来看：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持在 高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开工 回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素等 影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指 导价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market may continue to be in a period of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state and is likely to be short - sold. However, in the medium to long term, commodity bulls are expected to continue [35][42]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, such as the US - Israel military strikes on Iran, have become a core driver for short - term price movements in precious metals, crude oil, and other commodities. The development of the situation will significantly impact prices [8][12][14]. - For different industries, specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations will affect price trends. For example, in the metals industry, factors like supply disruptions and downstream demand recovery are crucial; in the energy and chemical industry, supply - demand balance and cost changes play important roles; in the agricultural products industry, factors such as production, consumption, and trade policies are key [12][14][78]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between the US and Iran, OPEC's production increase plan, new developments in large - scale models, and the militarization of artificial intelligence are the main factors affecting the stock index [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid the US - Iran conflict and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between Israel and Iran, Trump's plan to negotiate with Iran, and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Inflation recovery may potentially suppress the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet stable. The short - term safe - haven sentiment in the market due to the US - Iran conflict is beneficial for the bond market, but the subsequent trend depends on the intensity and duration of the conflict. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to price increases in precious metals. The price trend depends on the development of the war [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The opening prices of gold and silver are expected to gap up. If the war expands, the upward trend may continue; if the situation eases, prices are likely to return to high - level consolidation. A short - term long - position strategy is recommended [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have led to a mixed performance in copper prices. LME and domestic inventories have changed, and the basis has adjusted [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors and supply - side constraints support copper prices. With the improvement of downstream operating rates, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Short - term copper prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Geopolitical factors have caused aluminum prices to oscillate. Inventory and basis have changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although domestic aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively high level, they are expected to peak earlier than in previous years. Geopolitical risks increase the supply risk in the Middle East, and aluminum prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. Zinc prices may follow the upward trend of copper and aluminum prices due to relative valuation [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although lead inventories have increased significantly, the current price is at the lower end of the oscillation range. The narrowing of smelting profits may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Short - term lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have shown a slight decline. Spot prices and cost factors have changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, nickel prices are expected to rise slowly due to the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate to digest inventory pressure. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices have risen significantly. Supply - side concerns and demand - side recovery are the main factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the market has a strong sentiment to go long on tin prices, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and inventories are rising. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight decline. Spot and futures prices have changed [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been depleted during the Spring Festival, and the downstream demand is resilient. The short - term supply is expected to be tight. However, if the export ban on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe is lifted, the impact on domestic supply may be limited. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm and market sentiment [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have led to a contraction in inventory accumulation. The high - level of warehouse receipts registration due to the premium on the futures market suppresses the upward movement of prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side pressure has increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources after the festival. Although the market procurement atmosphere has improved, the actual demand from downstream users is still low. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate upward [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production after the festival. Short - term prices are expected to rise [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, but the transmission of policies to the construction end takes time. The fundamentals of the black sector are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as construction site resumption rates, policy signals, and supply - side constraints [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed. Steel mills have received emission reduction notices during important meetings [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply has recovered after the end of weather - related impacts, and high inventories suppress price increases. The demand for iron ore is recovering, but the production of molten iron may be affected during important meetings. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices have shown a slight increase, and coke prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the festival, downstream users are in the active de - stocking stage, and coal production is gradually recovering. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in the second half of the year [34][35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined. Inventory has increased significantly, and the demand is weak [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of the glass market is stable, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices are stable. Inventory has increased, and the demand is weak [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the demand is slow to recover. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in iron alloy prices is mainly driven by market speculation and policy expectations. In the long term, the commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market may oscillate. The future trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the overall market sentiment and cost factors [42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to increase in March. Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large - scale factories in the northwest and downstream demand changes [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in March, but the inventory is still high, and the demand feedback is not good. Polysilicon prices are expected to be under pressure. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US - Iran conflict, the prices of crude oil and naphtha are expected to rise, driving up the price of butadiene rubber futures. The natural rubber market has both bullish and bearish factors [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have risen, and the inventory of refined oil products has changed [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has already factored in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors have weakened. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window for urea has opened, and the fundamentals are expected to be negative. It is recommended to short - sell [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward repair space of valuation is narrowing. It is recommended to gradually take profits [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The domestic market is in a situation of oversupply, and the fundamentals are poor [63][64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is under pressure. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. However, due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebounds, there is a risk of price rebound [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, but there is still room for valuation increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the medium - term [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is currently in a stock - accumulation stage, but it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of p - Xylene and PTA is relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ "moderate production increase" has led to an oscillating oil price. The PE valuation has room to decline, but the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may be alleviated. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have declined. The market is in a situation of oversupply [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The near - term pig prices are still bearish after the rebound, while the far - term prices are slightly bullish but with limited upside space. It is recommended to use reverse arbitrage or wait for the price to fall and then buy [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable. The supply is high, and the demand may increase in the short term but decrease later [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of laying hens is large, and the behavior of delaying culling and feather replacement may weaken the medium - term price increase potential. Attention should be paid to the valuation pressure on the far - term disk [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, and domestic soybean inventory have changed [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rumor of an extended customs clearance time for South American soybeans has driven up the price of soybean meal. The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to increased import costs [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of vegetable oils in China and India has decreased [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. The geopolitical crisis may drive up the oil price. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats is bullish. It is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling at a low level and then buy [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar production in India, Brazil, and Thailand has changed, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current raw sugar price is at a historical low, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April. It is not advisable to be overly bearish. The domestic sugar price may rebound. It is recommended to participate in long positions on dips [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton exports, domestic cotton inventory, and global cotton production and consumption have changed [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased significantly after the festival. It is recommended to focus on the downstream operating rate in March. If it cooperates, the cotton price still has room to rise. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report International - The current US soybean market shows a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The USDA February report maintained the US soybean production and an ending inventory estimate of 350 million bushels, setting a tone of loose supply and demand. The record - high production expectations in South America further strengthen the global supply pressure, capping the US soybean price. However, strong domestic crushing demand in the US provides a key bottom support. The core driving force comes from biofuel policies. The EPA's blending requirements and the Treasury's tax credit policy bind soybean oil demand to the biofuel industry, directly boosting soybean crushing demand. US soybean exports face structural difficulties, lacking competitiveness against South American soybeans. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and tariff policies disrupt trade normalization, causing difficulties for US soybean farmers in market access and sales. Overall, US soybean prices will fluctuate and trend slightly higher under the influence of high inventory pressure, strong domestic demand support, and weak export prospects [4][97]. Domestic - The current domestic soybean market shows a pattern of strong international and weak domestic performance, with prominent structural contradictions. The market supply is abundant, and the high arrival volume of imported soybeans has led to historically high inventories at ports and oil mills, putting great pressure on domestic prices. However, high import costs due to external factors form a solid bottom support, but the transmission of this cost - driven support to domestic prices is not smooth. The core contradiction lies in the serious inversion between high raw material costs and weak downstream product prices, squeezing oil mill crushing profits and causing widespread losses in the industry. Driven by factors such as the continuous arrival of previously purchased soybeans and inventory digestion pressure, oil mill operating rates are higher than historical averages, further exacerbating the oversupply of products like soybean meal and suppressing spot prices and basis. Overall, domestic soybean prices are in a volatile range, with industry hedging and high inventory pressure on the upper side and import cost support on the lower side. The short - term weak pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally [5][98]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1 Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Remained Stable - In late February 2026, the spot price of second - grade imported soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of January 2026. The spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Nenjiang, a soybean - producing area in Heilongjiang, was 4,060 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [9]. 1.2 The Futures Prices of Soybean Products Diverged - Since February 2026, the futures price of soybean No. 1 has risen significantly, from 4,380 yuan/ton to over 4,700 yuan/ton, leading the spot price. The futures price of soybean No. 2 has trended slightly higher, rising slightly from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,580 yuan/ton. The futures price of soybean meal followed the rebound of US soybean futures prices, rising from 2,767 yuan/ton to 2,833 yuan/ton, but its overall performance was weaker than that of US soybeans due to relatively loose domestic supply [11]. 2 The USDA Report was Slightly Bearish and the Weather in South America had an Increasing Impact 2.1 US Soybean Data Remained Unchanged and High Inventory Set a Tone of Loose Supply and Demand - On February 11, 2026, the USDA released its February monthly supply and demand report, which made no adjustments to all key estimates of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season. The production, yield, sown and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remained the same as the January estimates. The ending inventory remained at 350 million bushels, at a six - year high. The export estimate of US soybeans remained at 1.575 billion bushels, not being raised due to remarks from President Trump about China potentially increasing purchases by 8 million tons. The USDA's decision not to adjust the estimates was to reserve room for adjustment for upcoming major policies. The high ending inventory of US soybeans set a tone of loose supply and demand, suppressing the rebound of US soybean futures prices. There were still differences in the market regarding the US soybean inventory. Some market analysis institutions believed that if US soybean exports increased slightly in the future, the inventory might drop to 275 - 320 million bushels [15][16]. 2.2 The Weather in South American Producing Areas had an Increasing Impact and Production was Subject to Adjustment - In the 2026 South American soybean growing season, the weather in Brazil showed significant regional differentiation and harvesting progress was hindered. The production adjustment expectation first increased and then had potential risks. In Brazil, the weather patterns in major soybean - producing areas such as Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul were different. In Mato Grosso, the harvesting progress was fast from late January to mid - February, but rainy weather since mid - January slowed down the harvesting, and there were still a large number of unharvested soybeans in late - sown areas. In Rio Grande do Sul, drought and high temperatures persisted, and farmers began to estimate yield losses. In Argentina, the soybean sowing was almost completed, and the growth was in a critical period. The uneven distribution of rainfall threatened the yield. The production adjustment expectation decreased due to weather uncertainties. Overall, the Brazilian soybean production was expected to remain high, but there were risks of quality impact from rainfall during the harvesting period and potential yield reduction in the south. The Argentine soybean production was expected to be significantly lower than the previous year, and if the drought continued, the yield might fall below 46 million tons [20][23][24]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing was in a Historically High - growth Period and Biofuel Policies Provided Demand Space - In January 2026, the soybean crushing volume of members of the National Oilseed Processors Association in the US reached 221.564 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%, setting a record high for the same period. The USDA predicted that the crushing volume in the 2026/27 season would reach a new high of 2.655 billion bushels. The US soybean crushing profit remained at a high level. As of the end of January 2026, the crushing profit based on USDA data was $2.87 per bushel, significantly higher than $2.28 per bushel at the end of December 2025. In February 2026, the US Treasury Department issued the proposed rules for the 45Z tax credit, which was beneficial for soybean oil - based biofuels. The market was also closely watching the new proposal to be finalized by the EPA by the end of March 2026. The strong domestic crushing demand in the US offset the negative impact of the record - high production of Brazilian soybeans, keeping the US soybean price in a slightly bullish pattern [25][26][27]. 2.4 US Soybean Exports Faced Structural Difficulties and the Competition between North and South American Soybeans Began - The core pressure on US soybean exports came from China's shift in procurement focus. As of February 19, 2026, the total sales of US soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season were 10.664 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.1%. The US soybean price was not competitive compared to Brazilian soybeans. In addition, US domestic policies disturbed the export expectation. The US soybean export was in a difficult situation of high prices and poor sales, and its recovery depended on the return of US trade policies to stability and predictability and the substantial repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. South American soybean exports were in a strong expansion cycle driven by record - high supply. Brazil was expected to export a record 112 million tons of soybeans in 2026, and the export volume in February was estimated to be 11.4 - 11.46 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. Although the overall export trend in South America was strong, short - term export rhythms were affected by factors such as weather, logistics, and domestic policies [32][33][34]. 3 The Domestic Soybean Supply was Abundant and Oil Mill Crushing Profits were Severely Squeezed 3.1 Import Cost Provided Support but the Structural Weakness Remained - Import costs provided bottom support for domestic soybeans, but the transmission of this support was not smooth. The domestic soybean market was weak due to abundant supply, high inventory, and poor demand. The high inventory of soybeans at ports and oil mills, along with the expected supply from the auction of imported soybeans, increased the supply pressure. The cost - high and product - price - low situation led to widespread losses in domestic oil mills. In the short term, domestic soybean prices would continue to fluctuate in a range, with the upper limit being industry hedging and high inventory pressure and the lower limit being import cost support. The future trend depended on factors such as the digestion speed of high inventory, the recovery of breeding profits, the implementation of the imported soybean auction policy, and the progress of Sino - US trade consultations [45][46]. 3.2 Oil Mill Operating Rates were Higher than Historical Averages and Crushing Profits were Severely Squeezed - The crushing profit was a key indicator for oil mills, and the industry was currently under great pressure, with widespread losses. The root cause of the losses was the high cost of imported soybeans and the weak prices of downstream products. For example, the crushing profit of US West soybeans for the March shipment was - 377.52 yuan/ton, and that of US Gulf soybeans was - 328.46 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybeans were the only bright spot in terms of profit, with a positive profit of 155.20 - 186.29 yuan/ton for the April - May shipment. After the Spring Festival, oil mill operating rates were higher than historical averages, not driven by profit but by factors such as inventory pressure. High operating rates led to the passive accumulation of soybean meal inventory, further suppressing prices and basis, and exacerbating the industry's difficulties. The future recovery of oil mill operating rates and profits depended on a significant decline in import costs and a substantial recovery in domestic downstream breeding demand [64][65]. 4 The Reduction of Pig Production Capacity was Slow and Prices Accelerated to Reach the Bottom after the Festival 4.1 The Pig Market was Weak during the Peak Season and Prices Accelerated to Reach the Bottom after the Festival - In February 2026, the domestic pig market showed a weak pattern of under - performance during the peak season and accelerated price decline after the festival. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs dropped from about 12 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to below 11 yuan/kg by late February, reaching a new low. The decline was driven by the imbalance between supply and demand [68]. 4.2 The Total Pig Supply was Abundant and the Reduction of Production Capacity was Slow - As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, providing a solid foundation for pig supply in the first half of 2026. In January, some large - scale farms slightly increased their production capacity, and the willingness to actively cull sows decreased, slowing down the reduction of production capacity. The high average weight of pigs at the end of January and the large proportion of pigs weighing 90 - 140 kg in the inventory indicated an abundant supply in the future. The increase in piglet prices and the recovery of replenishment enthusiasm would further delay the reduction of production capacity [69]. 4.3 Pig Farming was in Deep Loss and Consumption Declined Rapidly after the Festival - Pig farming was in deep loss. As of early February, the average ex - factory price of live pigs was 12.5 yuan/kg, the pig - grain ratio was 5.26:1, and the average loss per pig was 130 yuan. The loss was due to the serious inversion between cost and price. On the demand side, although the slaughtering enterprise operating rate increased slightly before the Spring Festival, the demand was still weak. After the festival, consumption entered the off - season, and the support for pig prices weakened. The low price of poultry meat as a substitute also failed to stimulate pork consumption. On February 6, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs strengthened the comprehensive regulation policy of pig production capacity, which was expected to suppress the disorderly expansion of production capacity in the short term and promote the transformation of the industry to large - scale and high - quality development in the long term [81][83]. 5 Conclusion - The international and domestic viewpoints are the same as the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the complex situation of the US soybean market and the weak pattern of the domestic soybean market, as well as the difficult situation of the domestic pig market [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East, especially the military offensive between the US and Israel in Iran, has led to the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a gap - up opening of the external crude oil market. This situation provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a strong performance today due to cost support and the gradual recovery of downstream demand [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually starting up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6500 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 97, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, LLDPE is expected to have a strong performance today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment, and the BOPP sector resumes work quickly but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6580 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 31, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the position turns short, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, PP is expected to have a strong performance today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also show an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,713 yuan, and the basis is 1318 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/2026 season in February to be 8.29 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term bullish factors of Zhengzhou cotton are concentrated, and the market needs adjustment. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming, the US tariffs have been reduced to some extent, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial to textile exports. Cotton investors with previous long positions can take profits and reduce their holdings, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories before the Spring Festival. The export tariffs to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have eased. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton has been put on the market. Currently, it is the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton production is 2609.6 million tons, consumption is 2584.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1635.3 million tons. There are different changes in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory in various countries [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 2539.956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 1583.577 million tons, the import volume is 971.442 million tons, the consumption is 2500.778 million tons, the export volume is 971.412 million tons, the ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore 2605 is expected to be volatile in the short - term and medium - term, and slightly weak in the intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The current situation is weak, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The ore price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the博弈 between the positive policy expectations and the poor fundamentals of iron ore [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "slightly weak". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and the ore price will continue to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills' production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to rise. However, steel mills' profitability is poor, the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the room for demand growth is limited, so the boosting effect is not strong. The arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipments of miners have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase significantly, and domestic ore production will resume, so the ore supply will increase. In conclusion, although the iron ore demand has improved, the room for growth is uncertain, while the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of the ore have not improved, so the ore price is likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong policy expectations. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 06 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 3315 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 3346 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.94%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 06 contract rose this week, with the opening price on Monday at 3315 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 3346 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.94% [5]. - **Supply**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. The sample enterprise production was 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. It is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the market in the short term [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%. The in - plant inventory was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The social inventory and in - plant inventory continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 06 contract showed an upward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, as crude oil first declined and then rose, the price of fuel oil increased. The high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3060 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.01%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3584 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.91% [5]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak. After the Spring Festival, downstream ship - fuel bunkering activities gradually regained momentum, and the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes from the Western market in Singapore in February decreased by about 200,000 tons month - on - month, and the arbitrage window from west to east was basically unfeasible in March due to high freight rates, which would further support the low - sulfur fuel oil market [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure due to sufficient supply in the Singapore region recently. However, some trade sources believed that demand from China might support the market fundamentals. The large - scale military strike by the US and Israel against Iran over the weekend caused widespread turmoil in the Middle East, hindering energy transportation. Iran's high - sulfur fuel accounts for about 5.5% of the world's total fuel oil production, leading to a significant short - term strengthening of fuel oil [5]. - For operation, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term range of 3000 - 3600, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term range of 3500 - 4100 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3060 yuan/ton with a 4.01% weekly increase, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3584 yuan/ton with a 3.91% weekly increase. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened, and the high - sulfur market was weak. The market was affected by factors such as post - Spring Festival demand, supply changes, and the Middle East situation. Short - term operation ranges were given [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2845, the current value was 2958, with a rise of 113 and an increase rate of 3.96%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3307, the current value was 3463, with a rise of 157 and an increase rate of 4.74% [6]. - **Spot prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions all increased slightly. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 505.00 to 516.00, with an increase rate of 2.18% [7]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption data**: Graphs of Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit over the years were presented, showing the trends of these data [8][9][10]. 3.4. Spread Data - A graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread was provided, showing the spread situation between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [15]. 3.5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from December 17, 2025, to February 25, 2026, were presented, showing inventory changes over time. For example, on February 25, 2026, the inventory was 23.879 million barrels, a decrease of 2.77 million barrels compared to the previous period [11]. - Graphs of Singapore fuel oil inventory seasonal chart and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend were also provided [12][13].