1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, consider taking phased profit - taking operations or defensive strategies [8]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. - For container shipping on the European route, the uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [11]. - For cotton, the domestic cotton market is likely to rebound under pressure at a low level [12][13]. - For sugar, the sugar price shows an oscillating trend due to sufficient supply and uncertain supply - demand gap [14][15]. - For palm oil and soybean meal, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - For eggs, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, it is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. - For crude oil, pay attention to the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [23]. - For fuel oil, the price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. - For plastics, beware of callback risks and turn short when the spot fails to follow up [25]. - For rubber, be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies, and the overall trend is range - bound [26]. - For methanol, beware of callback risks [27]. - For caustic soda, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. - For soda ash, the short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - For glass, the price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly [30][31]. - For asphalt, it is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. - For pulp, the short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. - For logs, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. - For urea, the futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. - For aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - For alumina, consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. - For lithium carbonate, an oscillating approach is recommended [34]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - For polysilicon, the near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. - For steel and ore, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. - For coking coal and coke, there is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. - For ferroalloys, a medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Multiple public - fund industry insiders stated that the recent analysis of market rebalancing due to public - fund assessment benchmarks is inaccurate and lacks basis, and there is no large - scale rebalancing of public - fund products [7]. - Trump will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, expecting the US federal debt burden to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the federal deficit to reach 9% of GDP [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposed the US's malicious blockade and suppression of Chinese chips [7]. - Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiation in three years, with different views on the negotiation results [7]. - The US and the EU launched trade negotiations to avoid the worst impact of Trump's tariff policies [7]. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May dropped to 50.8, with the 1 - year inflation expectation at 7.3% and the 5 - year inflation expectation at 4.6% [7]. - In March, overseas creditors' total holdings of US Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion to $9.05 trillion, with Japan increasing its holdings and China decreasing its holdings [7]. - The Trump administration plans to introduce a remittance tax for non - citizens [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Affected by US chip information, small - and medium - cap indexes are weak. The weighting index may reach short - term consistency in the adjustment of public - fund allocation logic and then decline. The current congestion of the CSI 1000 index is high, and the market may consolidate in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the money market fluctuated. The short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Route - The market has entered a wait - and - see stage for price increases. The uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [10][11]. 3.5 Cotton - Last week, ICE US cotton prices continued to decline, and the domestic cotton market was under pressure. The cotton market is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton price may rebound under pressure [12][13]. 3.6 Sugar - ICE raw sugar continued to decline last Friday, and domestic sugar prices followed. The expected increase in supply restricts sugar prices, and the domestic sugar price shows an oscillating trend [14][15]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - Palm oil: Affected by the delay in US biofuel policy formulation, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - Soybean meal: With the acceleration of soybean customs clearance, the domestic oil - mill operating rate has recovered, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price was weak on Friday, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. 3.9 Apples - The current apple market in the western and eastern production areas is in the young - fruit stage, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The narrowing of the standard - fat price spread has led to an increase in the slaughter of large - weight pigs, suppressing the price of standard pigs. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The market's expectation of demand has improved, and international oil prices have risen. The short - term focus is on the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [22][23]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. 3.14 Plastics - Short - term market sentiment has improved, but beware of callback risks [25]. 3.15 Rubber - The domestic raw - material supply is progressing moderately, and the market is oscillating. Be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies [26]. 3.16 Methanol - After the emotional rebound, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly. Beware of callback risks [27]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly under the influence of the fundamentals and the macro - environment [28]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - Glass: The price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly, and pay attention to the cold - repair rhythm of glass factories [30][31]. 3.19 Asphalt - It is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. 3.20 Polyester Industry Chain - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. 3.21 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. 3.22 Pulp - The short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. 3.23 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. 3.24 Urea - The futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. 3.25 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - Alumina: Consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. 3.26 Lithium Carbonate - An oscillating approach is recommended [34]. 3.27 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. 3.28 Steel and Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. 3.29 Coking Coal and Coke - There is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. 3.30 Ferroalloys - A medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil 2507 contract will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term being in a state of shock, and intraday being shock - weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be shock - weak and run weakly [1][5]. Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand forecast is weak. With the expectation of a soon - to - be - reached Iran - US nuclear negotiation and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the cease - fire between the Yemeni Houthi and the US, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have weakened, and the crude oil premium has declined. With the dominance of bearish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Monday [5]. Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a shock - consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 462.5 yuan per barrel [5].

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to see a rebound after a near-term correction, with a target of breaking through 3674 points before the end of June [3] - The Hong Kong market is viewed as more attractive for retail investors, with significant room for growth in indices like the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, which are at historical low valuations [3] - Core stocks in the A-share market are gradually listing in Hong Kong, indicating a shift in investment focus [3] Group 2 - The overall market is likely to experience sideways movement, with no significant downturn expected unless there are unexpected negative or positive developments [5] - Major weight stocks have not seen substantial gains, but their price-to-earnings ratios limit the potential for significant declines, suggesting a stable outlook for sectors like banking, insurance, and consumer goods [5] - The market is characterized by sector rotation, with undervalued companies expected to recover while overvalued stocks may decline, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment strategies [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PVC and Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply pressure of caustic soda is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by fundamental supply - demand and positive macro - drivers, the spot price of caustic soda tends to be strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited due to concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. There is an expectation of rush - exporting PVC products. But in the medium and long term, there is an obvious over - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term short - selling approach [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, in the short term, the supply is tight and the demand is supported, but the upward pressure on crude oil and the possible production cut of downstream products may put pressure on PX. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the PX09 - 1 positive spread, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of weakening. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the TA09 - 1 positive spread at a high level, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to reduce inventory in May, and it is recommended to take profit on the short - put option EG2509 - P - 4250 seller and conduct a long spread on EG9 - 1 [12]. - For short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is not large, but the processing fee is compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [12]. - For bottle - chips, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [12]. Styrene The short - term rebound of styrene is supported by low inventory and improved demand expectations. However, the high - production and high - inventory problems of 3S products and the poor supply - demand of pure benzene may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - month [18]. Methanol The inland valuation of methanol has a downward pressure, the port starts the inventory - accumulation period, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell the MA09 contract at a high level [22]. Crude Oil The overnight oil price continued to decline due to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation. The short - term market will be mainly in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and capture volatility - amplification opportunities in the option market [26]. PE and PP The spot sentiment of PE and PP has weakened. The supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but the cost - end rebound compresses the profit. Attention should be paid to the restocking and exporting of plastic products [29]. Urea The core logic of the rise in urea futures is the boost of the clear export policy. The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the actual increase depends on the policy implementation and export orders. The short - term disk will be in a wide - range consolidation [90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - On May 15, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda were 2593.8 yuan/ton and 2760.0 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC were 4880.0 yuan/ton and 5100.0 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price differences and changes of SH and V series futures contracts were also provided [2]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 8 was 395.0 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 dollars/ton compared to May 1 [3]. - For PVC, the CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged from May 1 to May 8. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port decreased by 10.0 dollars/ton [4]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate on May 9 was 87.5%, and the PVC's total operating rate was 77.9%, both showing an increase [5]. Demand - The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were provided, with some showing an increase [6]. - The operating rates of PVC downstream products and the pre - sales volume were also provided, with some showing an increase and the pre - sales volume showing a decrease [7]. Inventory - The inventory data of liquid caustic soda and PVC were provided, with some showing an increase and some showing a decrease [7]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price and cash - flow data of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [12]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of CFR China PX, PX spot, and futures, and the price differences such as PX - crude oil, PX - naphtha, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of PTA spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as PTA basis, PTA processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of MEG spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as MEG basis, MEG processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - The operating rates of the Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries and their changes were provided [12]. Styrene Upstream - The price data of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream products and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [15]. Spot and Futures - The price data of styrene spot and futures and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [16]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The price data of styrene's overseas quotes and import profits and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [17]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The operating rates and profit data of domestic pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Inventory - The inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Methanol Price and Spreads - The price data of methanol futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the regional price differences, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [22]. Inventory - The inventory data of methanol enterprises, ports, and the weekly arrival volume, and their changes were provided [22]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of methanol upstream enterprises, downstream MTO devices, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, etc., and their changes were provided [22]. Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of Brent, WTI, SC crude oils, and the price differences such as Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, etc., and their changes on May 16 compared to May 15 were provided [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil, and the price differences between contracts, and their changes were provided [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack - spread data of various refined oils in different regions and their changes were provided [26]. PE and PP Price and Spreads - The price data of PE and PP futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the prices of various PE and PP products, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [29]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of PE and PP devices, downstream weighted operating rates, and their changes were provided [29]. Inventory - The inventory data of PE and PP enterprises, social inventories, and their changes were provided [29]. Urea Futures - The price data of urea futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the main - contract positions, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [82][83][84]. Upstream Raw Materials - The price data of upstream raw materials such as anthracite, steam coal, synthetic ammonia, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [85]. Spot Market - The spot - market price data of urea in different regions, the cross - regional price differences, the basis, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [86][87]. Downstream Products - The price data of downstream products such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [88]. Fertilizer Market - The price data of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, sulfur, potassium chloride, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [89]. Supply and Demand - The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order - day data of urea, and their changes were provided [90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on May 16, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of various commodities in multiple sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal on May 15, 2025, was - 187.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous decline compared to previous days [2]. - The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - For crude oil, the basis is presented through a graph, with the basis calculated as the difference between the spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil and the closing price of the active contract of INE crude oil [6]. - For fuel oil, the basis is shown as the difference between the FOB Singapore spot price and the closing price of the active contract of fuel oil [7]. - The ratio of crude oil to asphalt on May 15, 2025, was 0.1386 [9]. - **Chemical Commodities** - The basis of various chemical commodities such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP on different dates from May 9 to May 15, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 15 was - 90 yuan/ton [10]. - The inter - period spreads (5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 5 - month) and inter - commodity spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) of chemical commodities are also given [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis** - The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from May 9 to May 15, 2025, is presented. For example, the basis of rebar on May 15 was 102.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spreads** - The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - month to 1 - month, 10 - month to 1 - month, 10 - month to 5 - month) and other black metals are provided [15]. - **Inter - commodity Ratios and Spreads** - Ratios such as rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and spreads like rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates are given [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market on different dates from May 9 to May 15, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of copper on May 15 was 980 yuan/ton [24]. - **London Market** - Information about LME non - ferrous metals including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profits and losses for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on May 15, 2025, is presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 39.74, and the import loss was - 318.78 yuan/ton [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis** - The basis of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, and other agricultural products on different dates from May 9 to May 15, 2025, is given. For example, the basis of soybean No. 1 on May 15 was - 232 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads** - The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, etc. [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads** - Ratios and spreads like soybean No. 1 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and soybean meal - rapeseed meal on different dates are presented [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis** - The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from May 9 to May 15, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 15 was 34.40 [47]. - **Inter - period Spreads** - The inter - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47].

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回吐，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：中美经贸会谈达成实质性成果，宏观因子转向乐观。OPEC+产油国加快产能释放未让油价 跌破前低。北半球原油消费旺季到来，炼厂开工率回升，商业库存步入去化周期。国际资金有望增 加油市净多头寸。 ...

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.42%, Nasdaq down 0.68%, and S&P 500 down 0.4% [1] - Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with Google and Microsoft slightly up by 0.14% and 0.06% respectively, while Apple, Nvidia, Facebook, Tesla, and Amazon saw declines of 0.15%, 0.55%, 0.79%, 1.83%, and 2.31% respectively [2][3] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.4%, with notable movements in Chinese stocks: Gaotu Group surged by 14.74%, NetEase by 9.82%, and TAL Education by 3.44%. Conversely, Alibaba dropped by 6.14% due to disappointing Q4 revenue [3][4] Commodity Prices - International gold prices increased, with London gold rising by 0.83% to $3202.99 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up by 0.19% to $3194.4 per ounce [5] - International oil prices declined, with NYMEX WTI crude down by 2.6% to $61.51 per barrel and ICE Brent crude down by 2.54% to $64.41 per barrel. The IEA report indicates a significant increase in global supply expected by 2025, with an upward revision of supply growth to 1.6 million barrels per day [6][8] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the US for the previous week were reported at 229,000, slightly above the forecast of 228,000. April retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, compared to an expected flat reading and a previous value of 1.5% [12]