截至2月9日13：20，石化ETF（159731）涨0.69%，持仓股浙江龙盛、彤程新材、华峰化学涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计14.47亿元，最新份额达 17.30亿份，最新规模达17.48亿元，均创成立以来新高。 据国家发展改革委2月5日消息，为保障2026年春耕及全年农业生产用肥需求，国家发展改革委近日发布 通知，从保障化肥生产原料供应，稳定化肥生产；促进化肥顺畅流通；加强化肥储备管理；加强化肥进 出口服务管理；加强化肥市场监管；推进科学施肥等六方面，全面部署做好2026年春耕及全年化肥保供 稳价工作。 光大证券认为确保国家粮食安全始终是头等大事，化肥及农药行业的稳健发展不仅是化工产业的重要组 成部分，更是落实乡村振兴战略、提升农业综合生产能力的核心物质基础。上述政策文件的发布体现了 政府部门对于农业发展的高度重视，将为化肥、农药行业提供长期稳定的发展环境和转型升级的动力。 华福证券认为，随着海内外经济回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经 多年竞争和扩张，具有显著规模优势，且通过研发投入持续夯实成本护城河，核心竞争力显著 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical industry index, with a notable increase of approximately 0.85% and significant inflows into related ETFs, indicating investor confidence in the sector [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a net inflow of 1.447 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, suggesting a strategic accumulation by investors [1] - Citic Securities identifies chemical, non-ferrous, and electric new industries as sectors with competitive advantages in China, emphasizing their potential for profit recovery and improved return on equity (ROE) in the long term [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry accounts for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43% of the petrochemical ETF, indicating a strong alignment with downstream chemical profit recovery [1] - The article suggests that the recent volatility in commodity prices does not affect the underlying logic of these industries, and a certain level of market correction could benefit the clearing of short-term speculative funds [1] - The long-term narrative for the industry is expected to improve due to structural adjustments in supply and demand, alongside an optimization of the industry landscape [1]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 09 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 3096 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股低开后震荡上行，尾盘有所回落，截至收盘，上证指数 收跌 0.25%，报 4065.58 点，深证成指跌 0.33%，创业板指跌 0.73%。 沪深两市 A 股成交额约 2.15 万亿元人民币，超 2500 股上涨。申万行 业方面，石油石化、基础化工行业领涨，食品饮料行业领跌；概念板 块方面，氟化工概念、染料概念涨幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数 收跌 1.21%，恒生科技指数跌 1.11%。美国三大股指全线收涨，道指 涨 2.47%，报 50115.67 点，创历史新高，标普 500 指数涨 1.97%，纳 指涨 2.18%。欧洲股市全线上涨，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【李强主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论政府工作报告稿和"十 五五"规划纲要草案稿】国务院总理李强 2 月 6 日主持召开国务院第 十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政府工作 报告稿和"十五五"规 ...

| | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | P9 盘箱盘新 盘加 九和 图线 工具 (8 2 > | | 化工ETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 516020(化工(TF) 10:11 @ 0.559 通政 0.010(1.05%) 均价 0.959 [成文量 4270 IOPV 0.9582. | | | | 2026/02/09 | | 0.959 | | +0.010 +1.059 | | | | | | | | | | | | $5E CNY 10:11:41 页图中 | | 用用元素 | | 0.958 | | | | | | | | | 0.90% | 净值电竞 | | 伊宝化工ETF | | | | | | | | | | | | gaze | -0.28% 委员 | -1023 | | 0.949 | | | | | | | | | 0.00% | 摩西 | ...

Core Insights - The Dow Chemical Company has announced the revival of its Path2Zero petrochemical complex project in Alberta, Canada, with the first phase expected to commence operations by the end of 2029, a delay of approximately two years from the original plan, while the second phase is projected to be operational by the end of 2030, one year later than previously anticipated, which is earlier than analysts' pessimistic forecasts from last year [1][2] Group 1 - The project was previously put on hold in April 2025 due to a prolonged downturn in the global basic chemicals market, leading the company to reassess the market and cut $1 billion in capital expenditures, creating uncertainty around the project's future [1] - The resumption of the project injects confidence into Alberta's industrial investment environment, highlighting the strategic value recognized by Dow [1][2] Group 2 - Concurrently, Dow is undergoing a significant global restructuring, including the layoff of approximately 4,500 employees, yet it remains committed to the project, demonstrating confidence in low-emission petrochemical production and positioning Alberta as a core hub for future growth [2] - The project received final approval in November 2023 and is expected to double Dow's local ethylene and polyethylene production capacity, marking it as the world's first integrated net-zero ethylene cracking and derivatives complex [2]

2月5日，巴斯夫宣布上调亚太地区（不含中国大陆）地区的TDI产品价格11%。这直接引爆了化工板块 的热钱流入。 | ■ 石油化工 | | | | 田 - 健加自选 区 生成图片 土 生成表格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理由 巴斯夫宣布上调亚太地区的TDV*品价格11% | | | | | 股票名称 | | | 最新价 = 医院幅 · 医师时间 · 流通市值 · 解法 | | | 江天化学 300927.5Z | 36.68 | 11,6696 | 10:18:30 | 51.68亿 公司丰富高清专用期间化学品 | | 金牛化工 | 8.64 | 10.06% | 10:11:15 | 公和主要业务由持服50%的投整了公司金牛加阳经营,全牛加阳拥有的甲酸生产赋力为20万吨/ 58.78亿 | | 600722.SH | | | | 年,生产方式为焦炉气制甲醇 | | 沧州大化 | 21.63 | 10.02% | 10:17:13 | 1、公司此前共聚到PC产品胶料试车成功,使公司成为国内第一家连续生产法生产共聚到PC的企 89.54Z | | 600230.S ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on February 9, with the Chemical ETF (516020) opening high and maintaining a positive trend, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.79% and closing up by 1.05% [1][6] - Key stocks in the sector included Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 8%, and other companies like Lianhong Xinke and Cangge Mining, both rising over 3% [1][6] - The recent supply dynamics in the basic chemical industry have improved, with high-energy-consuming capacities being phased out under policy guidance, leading to increased industry concentration and lower inventory levels among leading manufacturers [8] Group 2 - Demand for traditional products such as soda ash and PVC is recovering due to a rebound in real estate completions, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic installations are driving demand for lithium battery materials and EVA resins [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decline in the basic chemical industry has narrowed, indicating a stabilization in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sectors [8] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering popular themes such as AI computing power, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy [8]

证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 美印协议下国内炼厂成本优势或凸显 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 当地时间 2 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普表示美印已达成贸易协议，将美国对印 度商品的关税从 50%削减至 18%，同时印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油并转而 从美国等购买石油。由于欧盟针对俄罗斯的第 18 轮制裁包括从 26 年初起 禁止进口由俄油加工得到的产品，印度自 25 年 11 月起已逐步减少俄罗斯 石油进口量，导致俄油折价水平显著扩大，1 月末 ESPO 较 Brent 折价较 25 年 10 月末已显著提升超 10 美元/桶至 17.15 美元/桶。我们认为美印"石 油换关税"协议达成或将导致印度俄油进口量进一步下滑，俄油折价水平或 将维持高位，叠加人民币升值潜力，均有望带动我国炼厂原油采购成本优势 进一步凸显。 欧盟制裁叠加美印"石油换关税"协议，俄油折价水平显著提升 据海关总署，2025 年我国原油进口量同比增长 4.6%至 5.8 亿吨，自俄罗斯 /沙特/伊拉克/马来西亚/巴西进口量占比分别为 17%/14%/11%/11%/8%，其 中 25 年 12 月我国原油进口量/俄 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs, highlighting the resilience of the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors amidst market fluctuations [5][19]. Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile PE ratios of 98.89%, 91.35%, and 46.11% respectively, indicating a high valuation environment [1]. - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.37%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rose by 0.18%, showcasing sector resilience [17][19]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include: - Electric Power Equipment: 2.522 billion - Basic Chemicals: 2.065 billion - Machinery: 0.805 billion [2][11] - The sectors with the highest net outflows are: - Communication: -4.440 billion - Media: -4.133 billion - Computers: -3.133 billion [2][11]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Chemical ETF: 2.37% increase, with a 6-month performance of 44.66% [14]. - Green Energy ETF: 1.51% increase, with a 6-month performance of 35.35% [14]. - New Materials ETF: 1.32% increase, with a 6-month performance of 38.61% [14]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF has been identified as part of a long-term investment strategy, with expectations of high profitability lasting 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic support [19]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities continues to favor investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending focus on leading companies and price recovery products [19]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain high profitability driven by macroeconomic factors and industry upgrades [19].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a small wave adjustment, with overall profitability effects and growth relative value profitability effects retreating to historically high levels. A rebound is possible, but further confirmation of the lower boundary of the fluctuation range may still be needed [2][3]. Short-term Market Analysis - The short-term low cost-effectiveness is no longer extreme, and the rapid adjustment phase may have passed. However, the rebound power based on market forces remains limited. Effective rebounds will require new catalysts and highlights to open up upward space in the market [2][3]. - The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical high levels, indicating a potential transition from an upward phase to a consolidation phase as valuations reach historical peaks [3]. Medium-term Market Positioning - The current market is still in the first phase of an upward trend, with expectations for a "two-stage upward market" where the second stage will be initiated after confirming the lower boundary of the fluctuation range. This phase is characterized by waiting for further industrial trends and easing cost-effectiveness issues [4][5]. - The market has shown alternating structural main lines since September 2025, with several sectors reaching historical high valuations, leading to a horizontal consolidation phase [3]. Investment Opportunities - Four high-certainty judgments for medium-term opportunities include: 1. The primary market venture capital financing has bottomed out and is recovering, indicating a potential trend [5]. 2. The AI industry trend has clear space for growth, with ongoing advancements in AI applications validating the trend [6]. 3. Short-term cyclical Alpha logic is concentrated, but there are still significant discrepancies in cyclical Beta expectations domestically and internationally [6]. 4. The impact of the U.S. "devirtualization" and "broad credit" policies may lead to improved external demand expectations [7]. Sector Performance Indicators - The profitability effect indicators show a contraction in several sectors, including oil and petrochemicals (83% down 7%), basic chemicals (77% down 3%), and non-ferrous metals (71% down 12%). However, sectors like light industry manufacturing (69% up 5%) and electric power equipment (67% up 7%) are continuing to expand [10]. - The overall A-share market shows a profitability effect of 59%, indicating a comprehensive contraction, while sectors like food and beverage (52% up 13%) and household appliances (48% up 9%) are experiencing expansion [10]. ETF Market Insights - Various ETFs are showing different performance metrics, with the Huatai Baichuan Zhongzheng Photovoltaic Industry ETF at 99.83 million shares, reflecting a 0.8% change, while the Fuguo Zhongzheng Innovative Drug Industry ETF has 144.40 million shares, with a 0.9% change [11].