Group 1 - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, driven by the principle of "steady progress," with a foundation for a perfect spring market established through incremental gaming and favorable conditions for long positions [3][4][5] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and a broad diffusion of profit effects, with short-term investments in cyclical Alpha expanding towards more cyclical turning points [3][4][5] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, which may limit the time and space for subsequent market movements after the initial surge [3][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [5][6] - After the spring market, a consolidation phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues regarding the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance and valuation [5][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new stages in technology industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities by residents [5][6] Group 3 - Short-term focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with resistance likely increasing as profit effects expand to high levels [6][8] - Subsequent rotation directions include opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects may see a rotation and recovery [6][8] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on sectors such as overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicates that in Q4 2025, actively managed equity public funds are increasing allocations to technology manufacturing (communication, automotive, machinery), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, construction materials), service consumption, and non-bank financials, while reducing allocations to media, computing, military, real estate, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Trends - Actively managed equity funds are embracing AI and positioning for recovery, with significant increases in cyclical sectors [1]. - Non-ferrous metals saw a 2.1 percentage point increase in allocation to 8.0%, reaching a historical high, with a configuration coefficient of 1.7 times [1]. - Basic chemicals, automotive, construction materials, and steel also received increased allocations, with respective holding ratios of 3.2%, 5.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Adjustments - Non-bank financials, despite underperforming in 2025, received an allocation increase to 2.4%, which is at the 33rd percentile historically [2]. - The communication sector's allocation rose by 1.8 percentage points to 11.1%, marking a historical high, with a configuration coefficient exceeding 3 times [3]. - The real estate sector saw a decline in allocation to 0.3%, with a configuration coefficient of 0.24 times, both at historical lows [4]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Market Outlook - The overall positions of ordinary stock, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds decreased by 1.2, 1.4, and 1.4 percentage points to 88.3%, 86.7%, and 76.3%, respectively, while still remaining at high levels [5]. - The median net asset value increase for actively managed equity public funds in 2025 was 25.8%, which is lower than the growth of the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 [5]. - The net redemption pressure for actively managed funds has eased, with a total redemption of 132 billion units in Q4 2025, a decrease from Q3 [5]. Group 4: ETF Market Dynamics - The total scale of stock ETFs reached nearly 3.8 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, with a holding market value ratio of 3.9%, both hitting new highs [6]. - In Q4 2025, significant inflows were observed in industry ETFs related to brokers, pharmaceuticals, robotics, and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 5: Manager Insights and Sector Comparisons - Fund managers are optimistic about sectors with clear industrial trends, such as computing power, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, energy storage lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, military trade, and commercial aerospace [7]. - Based on the PB-ROE framework, sectors like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and AI applications are seen as attractive for allocation due to upward profit expectations and reasonable valuations [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, supported by incremental game dynamics and favorable conditions for bullish windows, which lays the foundation for a perfect spring market with widespread profit effects [1][5][6] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and sufficient diffusion of profit effects, with short-term adjustments in industrial trend themes and a deepening focus on bottom asset exploration [2][6][7] - The report reiterates the positioning of the spring market within a larger wave, indicating it is an extension and expansion phase of the 2025 technology structural market, with high valuation investment directions entering a phase of high volatility [7][8] Group 2 - Short-term, the focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with cyclical investments expanding towards cyclical turning points in sectors like construction materials, oil, and steel [8][11] - The report highlights that while cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals are nearing high profit effects, the resistance in the cyclical market is gradually increasing [11][12] - Long-term outlook remains optimistic for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace [11][12][17]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the market value of public funds heavily invested in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), which reached 9.05 billion yuan as of Q4 2025, a decline of 12.19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The report indicates that the decline is primarily due to profit-taking by investors in thematic funds, with a total redemption of 1.48 billion units, accounting for 52% of the total units before redemption [2][17] - The average net value growth rate of thematic funds in 2025 was 56.7%, significantly outperforming the BSE 50 index's growth of 38.8% [17] Public Fund Investment Trends - As of Q4 2025, the market value of public funds invested in the BSE accounted for 0.27% of the total A-share market, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [3][4] - The report notes that passive investment trends are ongoing, with index funds experiencing net subscriptions for three consecutive quarters, totaling 12.838 billion yuan as of Q4 2025, an increase of 7.55 billion yuan [2][13] - The report anticipates continued institutional investment in the BSE, with eight thematic funds pending market entry, including six index funds and two actively managed funds [2] Active Equity Fund Strategies - Active equity public funds are focusing on low-valuation growth stocks, with the valuation center of the top 10 stocks held by these funds dropping to 39 times earnings, below the valuation center of the BSE A-shares [2][20] - Key stocks of interest include Litong Technology (solid-state battery), Tongli Co. (lowest valuation on the BSE), and Lin Tai New Materials (low-valuation high-performance) [2][22] - The report also notes an increased focus on cyclical manufacturing sectors, such as basic chemicals and machinery, while reducing exposure to consumer sectors like beauty care and agriculture [2] Thematic Fund Performance - The report emphasizes that thematic funds have shown significant excess returns, with the average net value growth rate of thematic funds in 2025 being 56.7%, compared to the BSE 50's growth of 38.8% [17] - Specific funds that performed well include the "Hua Xia BSE Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Two-Year Open Fund," which had the lowest redemption ratio [2][15] - The report identifies a trend of active equity public funds increasing their holdings in stocks like Litong Technology, Tongli Co., and Lin Tai New Materials, indicating a strategic shift towards promising sectors [22]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent stock market has shown an upward trend, leading to an increased preference for convertible bonds among incremental funds. The median price changes across various parity ranges of convertible bonds have risen, particularly for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, reflecting market pricing based on future expectations of underlying stock price increases [3][12]. - The report constructs a convertible bond valuation index based on individual bonds and their corresponding parity ranges, which helps track funding allocation and identify investment opportunities. Notable increases in valuations were observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, power equipment, machinery, and basic chemicals, attributed to price increases in these sectors and a potential reversal in the real estate chain's economic conditions [3][12]. - The report suggests that the current funding environment is relatively ample, supporting the notion that equity-sensitive convertible bonds may experience a "rise easy, fall hard" trend in the short term, indicating strong trading value, especially for popular equity-sensitive convertible bonds [3][12]. Group 2 - The weekly convertible bond strategy highlights that the inflow of incremental funds into the market is expected to continue, with a likely "spring excitement" market trend at the beginning of the year. The focus is on investment opportunities in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - As institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, their expectations for the stock market are expected to have a deeper impact on convertible bond valuations. The report notes that the current investor sentiment towards the medium to long-term stock market remains optimistic, which may sustain demand for equity assets and provide support for convertible bond valuations [4][17]. - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as technology, driven by rising overseas computing power demand and domestic AI industrialization, as well as high-end manufacturing, which is expected to maintain high levels. Specific convertible bonds to watch include those from companies like Ruike, Qizhong, Yake, Daimai, Xingrui, Huachen, and Yubang [4][17].

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券联席首席金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 联系人：广发证券金工高级研究员 林涛 SAC: S0260124060060 gflintao@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于wind，数据截至2026/01/23） 2025年业绩预告整体统计： 截至目前最新的统计结果显示，2025年年报业绩预告累计披露率约为13.1%，累计业绩积极率（业绩预告类型预增、略增、续盈、 扭亏为积极，下同）约为40.3%。在已披露业绩预告的717家公司中，业绩预增公司共有180家，占比25.1%；业绩略增公司共45家，占比6.3%；业绩扭亏公司 共58家，占比8.1%；业绩续盈公司共6家，占比0.8%；业绩预减、首亏、续亏、略减和不确定的公司共428家，占比59.7%。 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 卡比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of Weifang, Shandong, in the global supply chain, particularly in the production of citric acid, referred to as "industrial MSG," which is essential for the food, pharmaceutical, and detergent industries [1][6] - Weifang's dominance in citric acid production is attributed to its advanced processing techniques and cost-effective production methods, making it difficult for Western companies to compete [3][5] - The article emphasizes that the control of basic industrial materials like citric acid can serve as a form of geopolitical leverage, similar to high-tech industries [6][8] Industry Analysis - Weifang has transformed its citric acid production by optimizing every step of corn deep processing, achieving significant cost reductions through an integrated thermal power generation system [3] - The region's ability to utilize waste products effectively has turned potential environmental burdens into revenue streams, further enhancing its competitive edge [3][5] - Despite attempts by global beverage giants to diversify their supply chains to countries like Vietnam and India, these efforts have proven ineffective due to infrastructure and energy reliability issues, reinforcing Weifang's unique position [5] Market Dynamics - Over 60% of the world's citric acid production capacity is concentrated in Weifang and its surrounding areas, creating a dependency that is difficult to break [5] - The remaining companies in Weifang have shifted focus towards producing high-purity pharmaceutical-grade citric acid, indicating a move towards higher value-added products [6] - The geopolitical implications of Weifang's control over citric acid production suggest that fluctuations in production could significantly impact global supply chains, particularly for major brands like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble [8]

[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 1 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分化 量化基本面系列之三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于 wind，数据截至 2026/01/23） 2025 年业绩预告披露类型 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 占比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | 扭亏 | 58 | 8.1% | | 略减 | 17 | 2.4% | | 略增 | 45 | 6.3% | | 续亏 | 247 | 34.4% | | 续盈 | 6 | 0.8% | | 预减 | 64 | 8.9% | | 预增 | 180 | 25.1% | | 首亏 | 95 | 13.2% | | 积极 | 289 | 40.3% | 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 2025 年业绩预告/快报/正式财报 | | 业绩预告/快报/ | 业绩预告/快报/ | 归母净利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申万一级行业 | ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis, as it primarily focuses on the analysis of active equity funds' holdings, preferences, and structural changes in Q4 2025[3][6][7] - The report provides detailed insights into the number, scale, and allocation preferences of active equity funds, including their industry and sectoral adjustments, but does not include any specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[3][6][7] - The analysis highlights the changes in fund holdings and preferences, such as increased allocation to cyclical and financial sectors and reduced allocation to technology and healthcare, but no quantitative models or factors are discussed[44][48][49]

2026 年化工策略与化工框架培训会 20260122 摘要 化工行业周期性明显，可通过销量和单吨利润两个维度进行财务模型分 析，其中单吨利润波动反映原材料与产品价差，需重点跟踪。产能周期 约十年，库存周期约 40 个月，中周期 20 年，康波周期 60 年。2016 年为上一产能周期底部，预计 2026 年或处于类似位置。 中国在全球化工业中占据主导地位，市场份额达 50%，具备低成本固定 资产投资、高效人力资源和企业家精神等优势。龙头企业通过技术积累、 成本控制和一体化产业链，不断降低成本，市场份额逐渐向少数龙头集 中。 库存水平是短期价格波动的重要指标，但需结合具体情况综合判断。中 国企业擅长长周期视角下的逆势扩张，可通过价格、开工率、竞争对手 和需求变化等指标判断市场拐点，财务指标如利润、期间费用率和自由 现金流是初步判断基础。 全球化工业供给端存在利好，包括中国产能扩张结束、海外产能退出以 及中国存量产能返利卷，这些因素共同推动中国化工业盈利竞争优势加 强。中国龙头化工企业净利率处于历史中高位，现金流充裕，具备通过 资本扩张放缓后大量分红提升投资回报的潜力。 Q&A 化工行业的研究框架和分类是怎样的 ...