Group 1: Hot News - In December, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 4.253 billion bushels, unchanged from November; the expected ending stock is 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 302 million bushels and unchanged from November; the expected yield per acre is 53 bushels, also unchanged from November [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced a reduction in soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and a cut in the export tax of soybean by - products from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum were also lowered [2] - On December 9, key coking enterprises from various regions held a market analysis meeting to discuss the supply - demand pattern and price trends of the coke market [2] - On December 9, it was reported that a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established. It aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities in the industry [3] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, silver, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: the precious metals sector had a 30.06% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.61%, and the oilseeds and oils sector with 8.81% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, grains, and chemicals [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - For equity assets, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.29% and a monthly decline of 1.64% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.12% and a monthly increase of 0.04% [6] - Among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, and London spot gold had a 59.67% increase in the past year [6] Group 4: Major Commodity Trends - Graphs show the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, and LME copper, as well as the ratios between gold and oil, and copper and gold [7]

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-10 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3079 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 44 元/吨（-1.40%）。当日注册仓单 35821 吨, 环比减少 10455 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.3747 万手，环比增加 116170 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3252 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 39 元/吨（-1.18%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]

盘前要闻 1、再创新高！美联储决议前夕贵金属大涨，白银首次站上60美元 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 交易员在美联储利率决议前夕保持乐观情绪，周二贵金属集体走高，受到供应紧缺推动的白银飙升至每 盎司60美元，现货白银日内涨幅均超4%。分析表示，在未来几个月，银价有望继续受益于推升金价的 相同力量：美元走软、货币政策放松以及地缘政治紧张局势下的避险需求。 2、多晶硅"收储平台"来了？业内称产能与成本优化迈出关键一步 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 昨日有消息称，多晶硅收储平台公司注册，公司名称为北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿 元。有头部硅料企业人士称，该消息属实。业内人士表示，多晶硅整合平台将从多方面影响行业，包括 助力价格与盈利修复、重塑市场长期格局及优化上下游产业链传导等。 3、千亿合并计划告吹，海光信息与中科曙光终止重大资产重组 类型：公司 情绪影响：负面 12月9日晚间，中科曙光与海光信息同时发布公告，宣布终止重大资产重组，并表示目前市场环境较本 次交易筹划之初发生较大变化，本次实施重大资产重组的条件尚不成熟。从产业链角度，海光信息是中 科曙光业务的上游。公司均表示本次重大资产重组终止不影响双方 ...

重要的消息有哪些 1.12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。据报道，美国总统特朗普8日表示，美国将允许英伟达向中国"经批准的客户"出售H200人工智能芯片。对此，郭 嘉昆表示，我们注意到有关报道，中方一贯主张中美通过合作实现互利共赢。 2 . 商务部副部长盛秋平9日表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高 质量发展。 3 . 12月9日，有消息称，业内酝酿已久的多晶硅产能整合收购平台正式成立，公司名称为北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿，成立日期为2025年12月9 日，住所在北京市朝阳区。对此，业内知情人士向证券时报记者表示，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司 主要 为行业内企业探索潜在战略合作机会，如技术升级、 市场拓展、产能与成本优化。但对于该公司是否就是酝酿已久的多晶硅收储平台，该知情人士并未作明确回应。 4 . 农业农村部最新数据显示，11月份全国猪肉供应充足，价格环比小幅下降。专家介绍，随着生猪产能综合调控措施的持续推进，10月末全国能繁母猪存栏为3990 万头，环比降1.1%，同比减2.1%，较去年年末高 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results expected soon [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is reported at 87.6% according to the latest CME "FedWatch" [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 89.4% on December 9, indicating a slight decrease in expectations [3] - On December 8, the probability was 86.2%, showing fluctuations in market sentiment leading up to the meeting [4] - The probability was 87% on December 5, reflecting consistent expectations for a rate cut [5] - On December 3, the probability was 89.2%, suggesting strong market anticipation for a rate cut [6] - There are notable divisions among the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the necessity of a rate cut, with 10 out of 19 members expressing skepticism [6] - President Trump is conducting final interviews for candidates to replace the Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate [6][9] - Hassett believes the Fed has ample room to significantly lower the benchmark interest rate [7][8] Group 2: Silicon Industry Analysis - Industrial silicon prices are declining, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47% [10] - In contrast, polysilicon prices are rising, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [10] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon producers [10] - Industrial silicon production is experiencing seasonal declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest region due to environmental issues [10] - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [11] - Polysilicon price increases are driven by news of a new "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has garnered significant industry attention [12] - The establishment of this platform is seen as a potential positive development for market confidence in polysilicon prices [12] - Despite the positive news for polysilicon, overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak, with many downstream companies operating at a loss [13] - Both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently in a weak fundamental state, with inventory levels rising [13] - Future price movements for polysilicon may be limited due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, while industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines [14]

Group 1 - The newly established company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan and aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the polysilicon industry [1] - The total investment from various parties for the polysilicon storage platform is estimated to be between 20 billion and 30 billion yuan, with the total funds required for capacity storage expected to exceed this amount [2] - The polysilicon industry is currently facing significant overcapacity and losses, but it also has the highest concentration of capacity, which theoretically facilitates consensus among companies to control production and stabilize prices [2] Group 2 - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is a leading company in the industry with an annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon, and the investment cost per ton has been reduced to around 5 million yuan [3] - Ordos has a polysilicon production capacity of 28,000 tons and has maintained a high dividend policy from 2020 to 2024, with dividend ratios of 74.76%, 46.89%, 42.24%, 77.11%, and 90.92% respectively [3]

成交集中度来到 45%，再次达到历史偏高经验值。结构风险在 11 月明显缓解，是行情能够持续修复的基础。 而科技仍然是 11 月 24 日以来修复的核心，其他板块尚未出现更强的叙事。受此影响，资金再次聚集到科技板块 （尤其是 AI 算力），推升成交集中度。例如，今日成交额前 10 的个股，基本与光模块、PCB 和半导体相关，尽 管还有商业航天、储能和机器人品种，但基本表现平平。而周期品种如有色、白酒、钢铁、煤炭等则大幅下跌， 可能受科技板块"虹吸"效应的影响。 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：科技独树一帜 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 12 月 9 日，股债呈现跷跷板行情，不过方向则变为债涨股跌。权益市场上演极致的分化行情，资金聚集于科 技板块，大部分非科技品种表现较弱；债市则在多空交织的背景下，在震荡中小幅下行。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.55%，全天成交额 1.92 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 8 日）缩量 1339 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 1.29%，恒生科技下跌 1.90%。南向资金净流入 5.31 亿港元，其中腾讯控股、小米 集团和阿里巴巴 ...

明日主题前瞻 1、光伏 | 据证券时报12月9日报道，有消息称，"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式成立，公司名称为北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿元，成立 日期为2025年12月9日，住所在北京市朝阳区。据了解，光和谦成的主要业务是为行业内主要企业探索潜在战略合作机会，如技术升级，市场拓展，产能与 成本优化等。就该公司是否为"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"主体，多晶硅业内人士并未直接回应。 点评：中泰证券认为，自2025年中以来，反内卷进展迅速，产业链价格已取得显著回暖，从上市公司报表层面已取得显著减亏后续随着行业自律行为稳步推 进，预计光伏行业整个产业链产出有望得到控制，产品价格和利润情况有望扭亏为盈。 2、大消费 | 全国零售业创新发展大会9日至10日在北京举行，据新华网报道，商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体 系，做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动，服务驱动，实现高质量发展。当前零售业在网点布局，供需适配，线上线下平衡等方面还需进 一步加强。要更加注重下沉市场，发展新业态新模式新场景，激发消费潜力。 点评：东方财富证券认为，未来10年，随着我国经济的快速 ...

（原标题：12月9日重要资讯一览） 重要的消息有哪些 1．12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。据报道，美国总统特朗普8日表示，美国将允许英 伟达向中国"经批准的客户"出售H200人工智能芯片。对此，郭嘉昆表示，我们注意到有关报道，中方 一贯主张中美通过合作实现互利共赢。 2．商务部副部长盛秋平9日表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环 的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量发展。 3．12月9日，有消息称，业内酝酿已久的多晶硅产能整合收购平台正式成立，公司名称为北京光和谦成 科技有限责任公司，注册资本30亿元，成立日期为2025年12月9日，住所在北京市朝阳区。对此，业内 知情人士向证券时报记者表示，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司为行业内主要企业探索行业内潜在战略 合作机会，如技术升级、市场拓展、产能与成本优化。但对于该公司是否就是酝酿已久的多晶硅收储平 台，该知情人士并未作明确回应。 3连板昇兴股份：目前正在筹划向特定对象发行股票事项。 5连板龙洲股份：不涉及商业航天相关业务。 大业股份：参股的江北公司主要从事航天产品研发生产，目前净利润规模较小。 厦 ...