Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information** - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on January 12, 2026, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5320, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 50; the latest price of the main contract was 5632, with a daily change of -36 and a weekly change of 8 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on the same day, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy at the production area ex - factory price was 5700, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of 50; the latest price of the main contract was 5904, with a daily change of 12 and a weekly change of 30 [2]. Supply - The production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly) is presented from 2022 - 2026, with the data ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 [5]. - The production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2022 - 2026 is shown, with the data ranging from 5500 to 9000 [7]. Demand - The estimated and revised production volume of crude steel in China (monthly, in 10,000 tons) from 2022 - 2026 is provided, with the data ranging from 6500 to 10000 [5]. - The demand for silicon manganese in China (in 10,000 tons, according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2022 - 2026 is presented, with the data ranging from 12 to 26 [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly) from 2022 - 2026 is shown, with the data ranging from 30,000 to 110,000 [6]. - The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2022 - 2026 is presented, with the data ranging from 6500 to 9500 [8]. Cost - Profit - The electricity price for ferroalloys in different regions (daily) from 2022 - 2026 is provided, such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [6]. - The production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2022 - 2026 are presented [6]. - The profit of silicon manganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region) from 2022 - 2026 is shown [8].

Group 1: Steel Market Overview - Rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week-on-week to 1.9104 million tons, but decreased by 83,700 tons year-on-year [3][16] - Social inventory of rebar rose by 75,200 tons week-on-week to 2.9018 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21,300 tons [3][16] - Factory inventory of rebar increased by 85,600 tons week-on-week to 1.4793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 223,900 tons [3][16] - Rebar demand fell by 25,480 tons week-on-week to 1.7496 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 150,900 tons [3][16] - Overall supply and demand data for rebar is weak, with inventory entering an accumulation phase [3][16] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - Hot rolled coil production increased by 10,000 tons week-on-week to 3.0551 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16,200 tons [4][17] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil rose by 21,700 tons week-on-week to 2.9081 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 580,600 tons [4][17] - Factory inventory of hot rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week-on-week to 773,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1,700 tons [4][17] - Demand for hot rolled coil fell by 24,300 tons week-on-week to 3.0834 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 72,500 tons [4][17] Group 3: Iron Ore Market - Iron water production increased by 20,700 tons week-on-week to 2.296 million tons [5][18] - Global iron ore shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, with Australia shipping 19.396 million tons, down 1.741 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port inventory of imported iron ore rose by 3.2265 million tons week-on-week to 170.4444 million tons [5][18] - Steel mill inventory of imported iron ore increased by 430,000 tons, mainly in North China, East China, and along the Yangtze River [5][18] Group 4: Coke Market - Coke prices in various regions decreased by 50-55 yuan/ton, while some prices increased by 30 yuan/ton [7][20] - Demand for coke remains weak, with rebar demand falling significantly [7][20] - Independent coke enterprises increased daily production by 850 tons, while steel mills' daily coke production increased by 50 tons [7][20] - Total coke inventory increased by 2,200 tons, with independent coke enterprises reducing inventory by 45,300 tons [7][20] Group 5: Scrap Steel Market - Scrap steel prices increased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 2,187.4 yuan/ton [9][22] - Daily average scrap steel arrival at steel mills decreased to 476,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,600 tons [10][23] - Scrap steel demand fell, with daily consumption decreasing to 505,000 tons [10][23] - Long-process steel mills' scrap steel inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 3.16 million tons [10][23] Group 6: Ferroalloy Market - Manganese silicon production decreased by 1.39% week-on-week to 191,000 tons [11][24] - Demand for manganese silicon remains limited, with major northern steel mills not actively purchasing [11][24] - Inventory levels remain high, with a week-on-week decrease of 11,000 tons to 382,500 tons [11][24] Group 7: Silicon Iron Market - Silicon iron production increased by 0.2% week-on-week to 99,100 tons, remaining at a five-year low [12][25] - Demand for silicon iron is limited, with consumption levels at historical lows [12][25] - Inventory increased by 4,550 tons week-on-week to 68,910 tons [12][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：多空情绪扰动，盘面交易或回归基本面 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | （内蒙古） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 当期值 | | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | 当期值 | | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量 | （周） | | 9 91 . | | | 0 . | 20% | -5 . | | 26% | | 19 ...

Group 1 - Ulanqab City plans to implement 260 projects with government investments over 50 million yuan and corporate investments over 100 million yuan, totaling an investment of 367.3 billion yuan, with a target of completing 70 billion yuan in construction investments this year [1] - The city aims to accelerate the construction of a national important energy and strategic resource base, with plans to add over 4 million kilowatts of installed capacity in renewable energy this year, striving for a total scale of 25 million kilowatts [1][2] - Ulanqab City is focusing on developing a green computing power hub and data industry cluster, targeting a "double hundred growth" in the computing power industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a goal of achieving a computing power breakthrough of 200,000 P this year [2] Group 2 - The city aims to establish the largest green ferroalloy production base in the country, promoting the orderly release of capacity from 32 approved green ferroalloy projects and enhancing the industry's leading position [2] - Ulanqab City is committed to building a modern industrial system with improved structure and stronger development momentum, integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation, and supporting the establishment of innovation platforms for various agricultural and technological sectors [3] - By the end of 2025, Ulanqab City expects to achieve an industrial added value growth of 8.3% year-on-year, fixed asset investment growth of 11.3%, and a general public budget revenue growth of 14.9%, with an overall GDP growth of around 5% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The commodity market has been volatile since the first week after the New Year, with the bullish sentiment likely to continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the short - term high - volatility risks caused by sentiment "leaders" such as silver and lithium carbonate [15][97]. - The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. But these factors are mostly priced in and are not the main contradictions for future market trends. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement due to some factory maintenance and production conversion [15][97]. - The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon will be influenced by two main factors: the direction of the black sector or the overall market sentiment, and the cost - push problem from manganese ore in the ferromanganese sector and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem in the ferrosilicon sector due to losses or the "dual - carbon" policy. Special attention should be paid to potential emergencies in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][97]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. The estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level and decreased slightly week - on - week. The production profit continued to be in the red. The output decreased slightly, while the rebar and hot - metal output increased slightly. The inventory remained at a high level. The tender volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased month - on - month. The ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and there was no obvious short - term trend. Future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [15]. 3.1.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, Tianjin 6517 ferromanganese spot price was 5740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM603) closed at 59040 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 26 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.44%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferromanganese remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 414 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 541 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 438 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores increased, while the price of off - grade metallurgical coke decreased. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated immediate cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6114 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at 6171 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at 6188 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reaching 438.9 tons, down 7.9 tons week - on - week. Among them, the Australian manganese ore port inventory was 65.7 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week, and the high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 117.5 tons, down 7.4 tons week - on - week [36][39]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferromanganese was 19.10 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 4.40%. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's ferromanganese tender volume in December 2025 was 14700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - **Consumption**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of ferromanganese was 11.59 tons, up 0.08 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 191.04 tons, up 2.82 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week [59][62][63]. 3.1.5. Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferromanganese was 55.03 tons, up 0.54 tons week - on - week, still at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - **Visible Inventory (Bi - weekly)**: The inventory of sample enterprises was 38.25 tons, down 1.1 tons week - on - week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December, the average available days of ferromanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [76]. 3.1.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferromanganese futures price fluctuated sharply, with no obvious short - term trend. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5800 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: The daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics. The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week). The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week). The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [95][96]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis decreased slightly week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level. The production profit continued to be in the red. The hot - metal output continued to rise, and the demand for magnesium metal improved. The inventory increased slightly, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period. The steel tender volume and price decreased month - on - month. The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply last week, and future market trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - related factors [97]. 3.2.2. Spot - Futures Market As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5632 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 168 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.90%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [102]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 393 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 270 yuan/ton (up 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at - 797 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [107]. - **Production Cost**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials remained stable. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu remained stable, while that in Ningxia decreased by 0.015 yuan/kWh. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week), Ningxia at 5590 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Qinghai at 6097 yuan/ton (remaining stable week - on - week) [110][113]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [118]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: No specific summary information provided other than data presentation. - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and up 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of January 9, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons week - on - week. In November 2025, the national crude steel output was 6990 tons, down 210 tons month - on - month and 850 tons year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 8.82 billion tons, down 3340 tons or 3.65% year - on - year [127]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 87.31 tons, down 0.36 tons year - on - year. As of January 9, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16950 yuan/ton, up 1150 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year. The estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 101 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period. From January to November 2025, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 7.67 billion tons, up 170 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [130][133][134]. 3.2.5. Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.73 tons, up 0.46 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively neutral level compared to the same period [141]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [144]. 3.2.6. Graphical Trends Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated sharply, with the short - term price returning to range - bound trading. Future attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support level at around 5500 yuan/ton [1