Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with an increase in blast furnace operation and apparent steel consumption. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [2] - The steel apparent consumption increased by 0.9% week-on-week and rose by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 220 million tons [2] - The social inventory of steel continued to decline, decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [2] - The petrochemical and consumer chains are generally weak, with the soda ash operating rate decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [6] - The PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [6] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - In the construction sector, cement demand showed marginal improvement, with the grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [11] - The cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [11] - Cement inventory continued to decline, with the inventory-to-capacity ratio decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and increasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [11] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The national commodity housing transaction remains at a low level, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreasing by 26.1% week-on-week and down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [20] - The transaction in first and second-tier cities improved year-on-year, increasing by 1% and 7.6% respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 21.2% year-on-year to -50.8% [20] - The port cargo throughput showed a rebound, with container throughput increasing by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [25] - The intensity of human mobility increased, with the national migration scale index rising by 26 percentage points year-on-year to 35.1% [29] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with egg and vegetable prices decreasing by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [48] - The industrial product price index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index decreasing by 0.2% and the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [54]

Core Viewpoint - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately RMB 3.35 billion, with a contract sales area of about 24,592 square meters, as of December 31, 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Sales Performance - The cumulative contract sales amount for the group, including joint ventures and associates, was approximately RMB 43.44 billion for the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35.44% [1] - The total contract sales area was approximately 278,381 square meters, with an average contract selling price of about RMB 15,600 per square meter [1] Pricing Trends - The average contract selling price for the cumulative sales as of December 31, 2025, was approximately RMB 13,600 per square meter [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Shunfa Hengneng (000631.SZ) announced a share buyback program, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value through repurchasing shares in the market [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - As of December 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 4,100,055 shares [1] - The repurchased shares represent 0.17% of the company's total share capital [1] - The highest transaction price for the repurchased shares was 3.40 CNY per share, while the lowest was 3.27 CNY per share [1] - The total amount spent on the share buyback was 13.5689 million CNY, excluding transaction fees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic analysis conference hosted by Peking University HSBC Business School focuses on the economic outlook for China and trade dynamics in Southeast Asia and the Middle East for the fourth quarter of 2025, aiming to provide forward-looking economic analysis and decision-making references [1]. Economic Outlook for China - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be 5.1%, with a slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter attributed to fluctuating fiscal spending [4]. - Exports in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations due to China's transition of electromechanical products to higher-end segments of the global value chain, indicating sustainable high growth in future exports [4]. - The outlook for 2026 includes the potential end of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the U.S., which could benefit domestic asset prices, and opportunities for revitalizing real estate and local state-owned assets [4]. Economic Situation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - The economic situation in the Greater Bay Area is characterized by stable industrial production, moderate recovery in exports, and pressure on domestic investment, with an expected growth rate of about 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. - External trade continues to grow, particularly in non-U.S. regions, although the decline in export price indices is squeezing profit margins for export companies [5]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline further, presenting a significant challenge, while strategies to expand domestic demand are anticipated to support consumption growth [5]. Southeast Asia Economic Dynamics - Private consumption in Southeast Asia remains robust, with moderate inflation and strong exports from countries like Vietnam and Singapore [5]. - The active trade between China and ASEAN, along with the signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement, is expected to inject strong momentum into regional economic integration [5]. - The economic growth rate in ASEAN is projected to continue leading globally, benefiting from the restructuring of global supply chains and accelerating renewable energy transitions over the next five years [5]. Economic Dynamics with the Middle East - The Middle East economy is experiencing moderate recovery, with an expected GDP growth rate of 2.7% for the year, driven primarily by non-oil sectors [6]. - Bilateral trade shows divergence, with significant increases in exports from China to Qatar and imports from Egypt [6]. - Future strategies for Chinese enterprises should focus on a diversified competitive landscape that includes stable oil and gas sectors, non-oil growth, and high-tech projects [6]. General Economic Trends - China's economy has crossed the L-shaped inflection point, entering a stable growth phase that aligns with the 2035 development goals [8]. - The shift towards new and improved economic development is changing the dynamics of equity and debt markets, suggesting a growing emphasis on equity market opportunities [8]. - Structural issues in the economy include the need for improved domestic consumption and the urgency of upgrading traditional industries, with new growth drivers emerging in high-tech and digital sectors [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Tokyo stock market indices continued to rise, with both the Nikkei 225 and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index reaching historical highs on January 6 [1][2] - The Nikkei index increased by 685.28 points, closing at 52,518.08 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 60.92 points, closing at 3,538.44 points [2] - The rise in the stock market was influenced by the positive performance of the three major U.S. stock indices the previous night, encouraging overseas investors to take on more risk and buy into the market [1][2] Group 2 - Semiconductor-related stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and SoftBank Group, as well as automotive stocks like Toyota and Nissan, experienced widespread gains [1] - Oil-related stocks continued to follow the upward trend seen in the New York market [1] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, most sectors saw increases, with notable gains in oil and coal products, securities and commodity futures trading, and real estate sectors, while pharmaceuticals and electric and gas industries faced declines [2]

智通财经APP获悉，1月6日，香港土地注册处发表2025年全年统计数字。数据显示，2025年送交香港土 地注册处注册的所有种类楼宇买卖合约共80702份（较2024年上升18.7%，与2023年比较，亦上升 39.1%）。 2025年市民查册的次数共4617270次（较2024年上升4.4%，与2023年比较，亦上升0.7%）。 2025年香港的楼宇买卖合约总值6142.8亿元（较2024年上升15.0%，与2023年比较，亦上升28.5%）。 2025年的楼宇转让契约共102431份（较2024年上升29.5%，与2023年比较，亦上升18.5%）。2025年的 楼宇转让契约总值6445.5亿元（较2024年上升32.8%，与2023年比较，亦上升9.3%）。 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas has declined [2] - Agriculture: The price of pork has slightly rebounded [2] - Non-ferrous metals: The prices of aluminum, nickel, copper, and zinc have significantly rebounded [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate reached a seasonal high yesterday, while other chemical products were at a low level [2] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a seasonal low [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities continued to recover [2] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased [2] Key Industry Price Indicators Agriculture - Spot price of corn: 2,248.6 yuan/ton, -0.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of eggs: 6.4 yuan/kg, 0.63% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of palm oil: 8,480.0 yuan/ton, -0.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of cotton: 15,602.8 yuan/ton, 0.35% year-on-year [34] - Average wholesale price of pork: 18.0 yuan/kg, 2.10% year-on-year [34] Non-ferrous Metals - Spot price of copper: 100,653.3 yuan/ton, 6.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of zinc: 23,952.0 yuan/ton, 3.87% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 23,323.3 yuan/ton, 5.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of nickel: 139,250.0 yuan/ton, 6.66% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 17,343.8 yuan/ton, 0.40% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of rebar: 3,228.0 yuan/ton, -0.09% year-on-year [34] Ferrous Metals - Spot price of iron ore: 817.1 yuan/ton, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of wire rod: 3,492.5 yuan/ton, 0.72% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of glass: 12.8 yuan/square meter, -0.23% year-on-year [34] Non-metals - Spot price of natural rubber: 15,575.0 yuan/ton, 1.08% year-on-year [34] - China Plastic City Price Index: 752.7, 0.30% year-on-year [34] Energy - Spot price of WTI crude oil: 57.3 US dollars/barrel, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of Brent crude oil: 60.8 US dollars/barrel, 0.25% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of liquefied natural gas: 3,238.0 yuan/ton, -2.18% year-on-year [34] - Coal price: 795.0 yuan/ton, -0.75% year-on-year [34] Chemical Industry - Spot price of PTA: 5,079.1 yuan/ton, 0.45% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of polyethylene : 6,410.0 yuan/ton, 0.52% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of urea: 1,725.0 yuan/ton, -1.85% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of soda ash: 1,208.6 yuan/ton, -1.40% year-on-year [34] - National cement price index: 135.3, -0.57% year-on-year [34] Real Estate - Building materials composite index: 115.3 points, -0.09% year-on-year [34] - National concrete price index: 90.4 points, 0.00% year-on-year [34] Other Information Production Industry - On the afternoon of January 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two sides emphasized strengthening cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, green industries, and the silver economy [1] Service Industry - The application for the child-raising subsidy in 2026 has been fully open since January 5th. As of 12:00 on the 5th, the child-raising subsidy information management system was operating smoothly. The biggest change in the online application for the 2026 child-raising subsidy is the addition of a renewal function. As of now, all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have issued the 2025 child-raising subsidy, with a cumulative number of over 24 million people, and the issuance rate in 2025 reached about 80% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.9, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 127.8, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 4.9 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.5, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous value of 40.7, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged at 6.5 points; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 121.9, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 122.0, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, remaining the same as the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.2, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 121.1, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the month - on - month forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.8, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 163.7, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 7.4 points [1][10]. - The high - frequency financing index is 246.5, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points compared to the previous value of 245.9, and the year - on - year increase rises [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, Guosheng Securities constructed a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc., and built the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - indices [8]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Overall Decline in Operating Rates During the Festival - The polyester operating rate is 86.0%, down from the previous value of 87.8%; the semi - tire operating rate is 69.4%, down from the previous value of 72.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 59.6%, down from the previous value of 62.0%; the PX operating rate is 88.4%, down from the previous value of 88.6%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 50.6 tons, up from the previous value of 47.0 tons [17]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Slight Decline in Commercial Housing Transaction Area - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the current week is 390,000 square meters, down from the previous value of 420,000 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 2.1%, up from the previous value of 1.2% [30]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: High - Frequency Index of Infrastructure Investment Remains Stable - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment in the current week is 121.9, down from the previous value of 122.0; the operating rate of petroleum asphalt is 27.4%, down from the previous value of 31.3% [39]. 3.5 Exports: Slight Decline in RJ/CRB Index - The high - frequency export index in the current week is 143.7, the same as the previous value; the RJ/CRB index is 299.9 points, down from the previous value of 300.6 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Increase in Average Daily Box Office of Movies - The average daily box office of movies is 166.12 million yuan, up from the previous value of 108.11 million yuan [58]. 3.7 CPI: Slight Increase in Pork Prices - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, up from the previous value of 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 5.8 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan per kilogram, the same as the previous value; the latest average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 17.9 yuan per kilogram [65]. 3.8 PPI: Continued Increase in Spot Price of Copper - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 673 yuan per ton, down from the previous value of 682 yuan per ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 61 US dollars per barrel, down from the previous value of 62 US dollars per barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,473 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 12,088 US dollars per ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,953 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 2,916 US dollars per ton [73]. 3.9 Transportation: Increase in the Number of Executed Flights - The passenger flow of the subway in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.97 million person - times, down from the previous value of 39.96 million person - times; the number of domestic executed flights is 12,548, up from the previous value of 12,353 [81]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Decline in Soda Ash Inventory - The soda ash inventory is 1.407 million tons, down from the previous value of 1.469 million tons [89]. 3.11 Financing: Credit Bond Financing Turns from Positive to Negative - The net financing of local government bonds in the week is 17.4 billion yuan, up from the previous value of - 3.2 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 61.7 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 40.8 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.88%, down from the previous value of 0.93%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.75%, down from the previous value of - 0.70% [100].

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2225.97 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策" 稳预期》 - 2025.12.09 房地产行业报告 （2025.12.29-2026.1.4） 发布时间：2026-01-06 行业投资评级 2026 年地产市场企稳值得期待 ⚫ 投资要点 根据中指院数据，2025 年 TOP100 房企权益销售总额约 25209 亿 元，24 年全年约为 30887 亿元，百强房企 25 年权益销售总 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is expected to experience low - level consolidation [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Core Content Policy and Industry Data - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued a green consumption promotion action with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects including enriching green product supply and supporting new - energy vehicle purchases, and encouraging the purchase of certified green smart home appliances [2] - In December 2025, the average transaction price of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities was 17,084 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,016 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [2] Market Conditions of Finished Products - Yesterday, finished products fluctuated and declined. The weak downstream demand remained unchanged, and the decline of raw material coking coal also led to the decline of finished product prices. It showed characteristics of weak supply and demand, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [2] Future Outlook - The finished products are expected to run in a low - level consolidation later [3] - Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]