炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 受到从上周五开始的国际市场贵金属暴跌的影响，北京时间今天（2月2日）上午，国内贵金属期货也集 体暴跌，其中沪银期货盘中暴跌17%。 国内多个金属期货暴跌 沪银期货重挫17% 受到国际市场贵金属暴跌的影响，北京时间2月2日上午，国内多个贵金属期货品种出现暴跌走势。 其中，沪银期货主力合约盘中封住跌停，报24832元/千克，盘中跌幅高达17%。 沪金期货主力合约盘中跌幅一度超过15%，盘中一度逼近1000元/克关口。相较之下，就在上周五，该 合约最高价还一度超过1250元/克。 除了上述贵金属期货外，国内期货市场上多个其他金属期货品种也大跌。比如沪锡期货主力合约盘中暴 跌11%，沪铜期货主力合约盘中跌幅一度超过8%，沪镍期货主力合约盘中跌幅也一度超过8%，沪铝期 货主力合约盘中跌幅一度超过6%。 上海黄金交易所黄金价格亦重挫 北京时间2月2日上午，上海黄金交易所Au99.99黄金合约价格也重挫，盘中跌幅一度接近12%，截至发 稿，最低一度至1025元/克。 另外，上海黄金交易所2月2日发布《关于调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》。 ...

2月2日，国内贵金属期货价格普跌。文华财经数据显示，截至9:04，沪银期货主力合约跌停，沪金期货 主力合约跌超10%，铂期货主力合约跌停，钯期货主力合约跌超15%。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，近期，贵金属市场利空因素随后开始发酵。美联储1 月利率会议如期按兵不动，会议声明指出就业市场逐渐企稳，但通胀仍面临上行风险，这使得市场对美 联储短期降息的预期下降。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也未释放更多鸽派信号，本次会议整体偏空。此 外，美国财政部部长表示，将持续奉行强势美元政策，否认干预日元汇率，美元指数因此止跌回升。值 得一提的是，特朗普提名凯文・沃什为下一任美联储主席，引发市场情绪逆转。相较于其他候选人，沃 什的立场更为鹰派，尽管其满足特朗普的降息诉求，但对量化宽松持强烈反对态度。这意味着后续降息 与缩表的政策预期，标志着流动性全面释放的时期即将结束，美债收益率曲线将进一步陡峭化，金融市 场波动也将随之增加。 展望后市，徐颖表示，中长期来看，黄金价格的上涨逻辑并未发生逆转。近期对白银的炒作明显降温， 特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席等事件，成为行情逆转的导火索。短期地缘政治风险可能降温，美联储大 规模"放水 ...

贵金属周报 沃什提名出任美联储主席，贵金属遭受 重挫 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周五，沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球贵金 属市场遭遇史诗级暴跌，特别是COMEX白银期货价格一度 跌超35%失守75美元/盎司关口，COMEX黄金期货价格一度 跌近13%失守4700美元/盎司关口。NYMEX铂钯期货价格盘 中也跌幅超过20%。虽然，贵金属期货价格尾盘都有所反 弹收回部分跌幅，但仍创单日历史最大跌幅。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：美国非农就业数据不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2026 年 2 月 2 日 ⚫ 虽然沃什的提名还需获得参议院批准，但目前基本可以确 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：巴西丰收前景缓解阿根廷干旱担忧，中国采购未来数月或转向巴西采购。美豆出口销售环比骤 降。国内春节备货尾声，需求支撑有限。短期豆类市场情绪波动影响加大，需关注 2 月底巴西大范围收获 对美豆和国内豆粕的影响，短期豆类期价波动加剧，关注市场资金变化对价格的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：马棕产业链供需边际改善并未改变，机构预估马棕库存从 305 万吨峰值 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but some senators oppose the nomination unless the investigation against Powell is dropped. Warsh's policy stance may combine rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2] - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year, with securities transaction stamp duty revenue up 57.8% to 203.5 billion yuan. Fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, up 1% year - on - year, and about 10 billion yuan in child - rearing subsidies were issued [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - Trump declares a national emergency, threatening to impose ad - valorem tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, and warns of potential 50% tariffs on Canadian planes [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit of silver futures contracts from 2605 to 2701 to 17% and the margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 18% and 19% respectively from the close of February 3 [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, silver, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.85%, precious metals rose 38.07%, oilseeds rose 7.90%, soft commodities rose 2.17%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.49%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 8.22%, energy rose 2.59%, chemicals rose 9.23%, grains rose 1.00%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.48% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 3.76% year - to - date; S&P 500 fell 0.43% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 1.37% year - to - date; Hang Seng Index fell 2.08% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 6.85% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [6] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 1.12% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 7.13% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.37% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 14.19% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 9.25% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 13.01% year - to - date [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.99% daily, 0% monthly, and fell 1.17% year - to - date; CBOE volatility index rose 3.32% daily, 0% monthly, and rose 16.66% year - to - date [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was mainly fluctuating, ranging from around 24,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 26,185 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% (calculated on a comparable basis). Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4% compared to the previous year. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [3][11][34] - By industry, investment in the primary industry was 95.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; investment in the secondary industry was 1,773.68 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; investment in the tertiary industry was 2,982.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 2.6% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 2.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 9.1%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 14,673,417.92 tons, a decrease of 430,931.65 tons from the previous month [15] - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% in the current month. Domestic production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][16] - As of December 2025, monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at an average level compared to the past five years [16] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons from the previous week [25] - As of January 30, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.76% [25] - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 742,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 31,000 tons, in Wuxi was 292,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 14,000 tons, in Foshan was 167,000 tons, in Tianjin was 36,000 tons, in Shenyang was 8,000 tons, in Gongyi was 155,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 8,000 tons [25]

受到从上周五开始的国际市场贵金属暴跌的影响，北京时间今天（2月2日）上午，国内贵金属期货也集体暴跌，其中沪银期货盘中暴跌17%。 北京时间2月2日上午，上海黄金交易所Au99.99黄金合约价格也重挫，盘中跌幅一度接近12%，截至发稿，最低一度至1025元/克。 另外，上海黄金交易所2月2日发布《关于调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》。 国内多个金属期货暴跌 沪银期货重挫17% 受到国际市场贵金属暴跌的影响，北京时间2月2日上午，国内多个贵金属期货品种出现暴跌走势。 其中，沪银期货主力合约盘中封住跌停，报24832元/千克，盘中跌幅高达17%。 沪金期货主力合约盘中跌幅一度超过15%，盘中一度逼近1000元/克关口。相较之下，就在上周五，该合约最高价还一度超过1250元/克。 广期所铂金期货主力合约和广期所钯金期货主力合约盘中跌幅均高达16%，触及跌停。 除了上述贵金属期货外，国内期货市场上多个其他金属期货品种也大跌。比如沪锡期货主力合约盘中暴跌11%，沪铜期货主力合约盘中跌幅一度 超过8%，沪镍期货主力合约盘中跌幅也一度超过8%，沪铝期货主力合约盘中跌幅一度超过6%。 责编：叶舒筠 校对：高源 版权 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic commodity futures market is mostly downward, with significant drops in precious metals and base metals, while some energy - chemical products show slight increases. In the financial market, the A - share market has different performance trends in various sectors, and the real estate market shows signs of stabilization. The global economic and political situation is complex, with potential impacts on the financial and commodity markets [4][41][42] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic commodity futures market on the 30th, most products closed lower. Shanghai silver hit the daily limit down with a 17% drop, Shanghai gold fell over 9%, and other metals like Shanghai tin, copper, and nickel also had significant declines. However, caustic soda rose nearly 3% and PVC rose over 2%. In the London base metals market, all metals declined. In the oil market, the US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose slightly, and the increase in net long positions in Brent crude reflected a bullish sentiment [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Israel and the US are collaborating on potential military actions against Iran. China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side. In 2025, China's national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease from 2024. Shipping indices declined, while the prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased at the end of 2025, and the price of thermal coal also rose. The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited opinions on regulatory changes, and Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair. The Fed's Bostic suggested no need for interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point drop from the previous month [7][8][9][11][12] Energy - Chemical Futures - The output and capacity utilization of Chinese styrene factories decreased slightly in the week ending January 29. The US relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's downstream oil production. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in March 2026 due to seasonal factors [14][15][16] Metal Futures - The Thai Futures Exchange temporarily suspended trading of online gold futures. Chinese banks issued risk warnings and adjusted business rules for precious metal investments. The price of Indonesian nickel ore increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange will conduct a simulation trading of nickel futures and options. The lithium ore sector declined, but companies reported normal operations. A lead refinery in East China planned to suspend production, and the Osaka Exchange triggered a "circuit - breaker" for platinum futures. The production and sales of lithium concentrate by Pilbara had different trends, and the margin requirements for gold and silver futures were increased [18][21][23][26][27] Black - Series Futures - China adjusted the lower limit of the medium - and long - term coal - power market trading price. In 2025, China's steel exports increased in volume but decreased in price. The purchase prices of coke by steel mills in Shandong and Hebei increased. A coal mine in Inner Mongolia passed the resumption inspection. The inventory and daily throughput of imported iron ore in ports changed, and the situation of steel mills' production and profitability also had corresponding changes. The Indonesian coal industry faced production quota cuts [29][31][33] Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in February. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased in the 5th week of 2026. The inventory of imported cotton at ports increased, and the pig - breeding profits changed. The soybean sowing in Argentina was almost completed, and the global sugar supply balance and Brazilian sugar production forecasts were adjusted [35][37][38] Financial Market Finance - From a resource boom to a cycle boom, the price - increase clues may run through the first quarter in the A - share market. The performance forecasts of A - share listed companies in 2025 showed different results in various industries. The performance of 29 securities firms in 2025 was mostly positive. The February gold - stock lists of securities firms were concentrated in certain industries, and the semiconductor and real estate sectors had different performance trends. The telecom service VAT rate of Chinese telecom companies was adjusted, and a fund had a trading suspension [40][41][42][43] Industry - In 2025, the "trade - in" policy boosted the sales revenue of household appliances and communication equipment retail industries, and rural consumption increased. China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally. Most domestic car companies had year - on - year sales growth in January. The price of second - hand housing in 100 cities decreased, while the new - house price had a structural increase. The global AI computing power construction drove the upgrade of power - equipment transformers. The scale of "fixed - income +" funds reached a record high [45][46][47] Overseas - Trump hoped the Fed Chair nominee Warsh could lower interest rates. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia was scheduled. The Indian government's borrowing in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year would reach a record high, and the deficit and debt - to - GDP ratios were expected to change. South Korea's semiconductor exports in January increased significantly, driving up the total export volume [48] International Stock Markets - The Indian and Saudi stock markets tumbled on February 1. India's proposed increase in securities trading taxes on stock index futures and options led to a sharp decline in the Indian stock market, and the Saudi stock market also had a significant drop [49] Commodity - The international gold price had the largest single - day decline in 40 years on January 30, and experts advised caution. The price of pure benzene rebounded strongly in January [50] Bond - Convertible bond funds became the focus in the context of the overall underperformance of bond funds, with some funds having high yields [51] Foreign Exchange - New regulations on RMB cash payment came into effect on February 1, and the Bulgarian lev withdrew from circulation on the same day [52][54] Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan will release the summary of the January monetary policy meeting, the People's Bank of China will have 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England will give a speech, the Asia Virtual Reality XR Industry Exhibition will be held, there will be new stock subscriptions, and the Atlanta Fed President will speak [56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 30, 2026, was 5300.00 [3] - Compared to the previous day, the price decreased by 1.63326% [3] - The discount to the US dollar price was 666.08 [3] Import Profit Information - For Canadian pulp brands, the import profit of Golden Lion was 104.27, while that of Lion was -448.06 [4] - The import profit of Chilean Silver Star pulp was -192.45 [4] Price Averages and Changes - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the national and Shandong regional average prices of针叶浆,阔叶浆,本色浆, and 化机浆 remained unchanged [5] - During the same period, the indices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also remained unchanged [5] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper showed no changes [5] - The differences between 针叶浆 and other types of pulp (阔叶浆, 本色浆, 化机浆, and waste paper) had minor changes during January 26 - 30, 2026 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory trend, with the supply - demand pattern weakening and the ore price remaining volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillatory", and the intraday trend is "oscillatory and weak". The overall view is that it will oscillate, with the core logic being the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the oscillatory trend of the ore price [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed little. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore is at a low level. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and ore demand remains weak. Although domestic port arrivals have continued to decline, miner shipments are stabilizing, and the subsequent arrival reduction is limited according to the shipping schedule. Domestic ore supply is stable, and with high inventory, supply pressure still exists. The positive factor is pre - holiday replenishment. Overall, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill replenishment [3]