Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Core Insights - The report suggests that the market performance has decoupled from earnings since September last year, resembling the period from 2013 to 2015. In the early stages of PPI decline, negative impacts on earnings dominated, but as PPI remained negative for a sufficient duration, policy and liquidity factors improved, leading to a decoupling of market performance from earnings [2][10][11] - The current macro-level asset shortage may exceed that of 2014. If the bull market is driven by liquidity and policy rather than earnings, the logic of asset scarcity becomes more significant. The current 10-year government bond yield is about half of that in 2014, and the rate of decline over the past two years is comparable to that of 2014 [3][20][22] - Insurance funds have already impacted the market, and there is potential for increased inflow from household funds. Since the pandemic in 2020, household deposits have risen rapidly, but their inflow into the stock market has been limited due to the lack of a stable profit-making effect. With the market transitioning from bearish to bullish since September last year, conditions for accelerated household fund inflow are gradually being met [22][24] Market Changes - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen significant increases in major indices, with the ChiNext 50 rising by 2.65% and the ChiNext Index by 2.36%. In contrast, sectors like coal and banking have experienced declines [38][42] - Global stock markets have shown mixed performance, with indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 performing well, while indices in Brazil and Mexico have declined [39] - The report notes a net inflow of 241.19 billion yuan from southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating strong market interest [40][48]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Global Market Overview - The global equity markets showed mixed performance with moderate valuation changes during the week of July 7-11, 2025. The Asia-Pacific region experienced significant divergence, with South Korea leading gains and India lagging behind. Japan saw a slight decline, while Singapore and Hong Kong indices rose [2][8] - In terms of valuation, the German DAX's PE ratio expanded by 1.65x, approaching historical highs, while the French CAC40 increased by 1.73% but saw a PE decrease of 0.64x, indicating earnings upgrades. Other indices in Hong Kong, except for the Hang Seng Technology Index, maintained high valuation levels [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share core indices mostly rose with moderate valuation expansion. The CSI 1000 and National CSI 2000 led the gains with increases of 2.36% and 2.29%, respectively. Small-cap stocks outperformed, with various small-cap indices rising over 2%. The large-cap value index slightly declined due to bank sector pressures [21][22] - As of July 11, 2025, the PE, PB, PS ratios of major A-share indices were positioned between the 96%-100% percentile for the past year, while the PCF ratio was between 90%-93%. Overall, large-cap growth indices showed superior percentile levels compared to large-cap value indices [22][23] Industry Performance - Most primary industries experienced gains with moderate valuation expansions. The real estate sector led with a 6.12% increase, followed by non-bank financials at 3.96%. The banking sector saw a slight decline of 1%. Other sectors like steel and building materials continued their upward trend [42][44] - Valuation changes were generally consistent with stock price movements, with the PE of computing and real estate sectors expanding by over 2x, while steel, media, and comprehensive sectors saw PE expansions exceeding 1x [42][44] Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector demonstrated superior valuation attractiveness. The banking sector's valuations are at historical highs, with PE, PB, and PS ratios nearing 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. In contrast, essential consumer sectors like food and beverage, and agriculture show significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year/5-year average valuation percentiles at 11.13% / 6.68% and 27.20% / 19.14%, respectively [44]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is showing clearer signs of a significant upward trend, with two key changes to focus on: 1. The "anti-involution" policy is leading to a more proactive selection of midstream manufacturing stocks, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026, creating more short-term elastic investment opportunities [3][4][7] - The passage of the "Beautiful America Act" by the U.S. Congress, which increases fiscal stimulus, significantly reduces the risk of a deep recession in the U.S. in the medium term, enhancing the visibility of China's supply-demand turning point in 2026 [3][4][8] Group 2 - The report describes a "bull market atmosphere" emerging in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough directly boosting risk appetite and expanding the profit-making effect across the market [4][8][9] - The necessary conditions for a bull market starting in Q4 2025 are accelerating, with optimistic expectations for the improvement of the supply-demand structure in 2026, and the low base and high growth of A-share Q4 2025 reports creating favorable conditions for a preemptive rally [9][10] Group 3 - Structural selection remains unchanged: 1. Insurance companies are increasing their allocation to banks, but this cannot be maintained in the medium term; it is recommended to wait for lower market attention before reallocating [10][11] - In Q3 2025, opportunities in the computing power chain may arise from the results of U.S.-China negotiations and improvements in capital expenditure by internet platforms [10][11] - The report maintains a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, particularly in new consumption and leading innovative pharmaceuticals for Q3 2025 [10][11]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3550 points on July 11, 2023, marking a 1.09% increase for the week [1][5] - The total market turnover on July 11 was 1.74 trillion yuan, the highest in over three months, with a significant increase of 221.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][4] - The overall market saw 2960 stocks rise, with 68 hitting the daily limit up, while 2206 stocks declined [2] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, computers, and steel sectors led the market gains, with respective increases of 2.02%, 1.93%, and 1.93% [2] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors were the top performers for the week, with gains of 6.12%, 4.41%, and 3.96% respectively [3][5] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant activity, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel hitting the daily limit up following positive earnings forecasts [3] Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - Despite the market rebound, there was a cautious sentiment among investors, with a net outflow of over 14 billion yuan from the main funds on July 11 [4] - The computer, non-bank financial, and non-ferrous metal sectors saw the largest net inflows, amounting to 36.91 billion yuan, 32.78 billion yuan, and 7.22 billion yuan respectively [4] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares reached 102.11 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, driven by steady volume release and potential inflow of new capital [5][6] - There is an expectation of a new phase of market growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors such as consumption, technology, and dividend stocks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 11, 2025, most convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The convertible bond valuation increased [2]. - In the stock market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose. In the convertible bond market, 22 industries rose [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.03% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.80%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.85% [1]. - Small - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. The large - cap growth index rose 0.55%, the large - cap value index fell 0.80%, the mid - cap growth index rose 0.28%, the mid - cap value index fell 0.13%, the small - cap growth index rose 0.68%, and the small - cap value index rose 0.18% [1]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 66.069 billion yuan, a 1.25% month - on - month decrease. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1736.61 billion yuan, a 14.62% month - on - month increase. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14.038 billion yuan [1]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.37bp month - on - month to 1.67% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - After excluding convertible bonds with a closing price > 150 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 50%, the fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 25.38%, a 0.08pct month - on - month increase. The overall weighted par value was 94.40 yuan, a 0.52% month - on - month decrease [2][21]. - The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds (divided by stock - bond nature) increased. The conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds rose 1.23pct, that of debt - biased convertible bonds rose 0.39pct, and that of balanced convertible bonds rose 0.34pct [2]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were non - bank finance (+2.02%), computer (+1.93%), and steel (+1.93%); the top three falling industries were bank (-2.41%), building materials (-0.67%), and coal (-0.60%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 22 industries rose. The top three rising industries were non - bank finance (+1.97%), computer (+1.09%), and non - ferrous metals (+1.05%); the top three falling industries were bank (-0.72%), textile and apparel (-0.44%), and media (-0.27%) [3]. - In terms of closing price, the large - cycle sector rose 0.81%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.05%, the technology sector fell 0.22%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.12%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.66% [3]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, the large - cycle sector rose 0.45pct, the manufacturing sector rose 0.35pct, the technology sector fell 0.22pct, the large - consumption sector rose 0.31pct, and the large - finance sector rose 1.2pct [3]. - In terms of conversion value, the large - cycle sector rose 0.18%, the manufacturing sector fell 0.18%, the technology sector rose 0.43%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.22%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.71% [3]. - In terms of pure - bond premium rate, the large - cycle sector rose 0.53pct, the manufacturing sector rose 0.15pct, the technology sector rose 0.59pct, the large - consumption sector rose 0.13pct, and the large - finance sector rose 0.71pct [4]. 5. Industry Rotation - Non - bank finance, computer, and steel led the rise. The daily increase of non - bank finance in the underlying stock market was 2.02%, and 1.97% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of computer was 1.93% in the underlying stock market and 1.09% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of steel was 1.93% in the underlying stock market and 0.13% in the convertible bond market [56].

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, ETF premiums/discounts, institutional activity, and other market-related data. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided text.

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on July 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510.18 points, up 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10696.1 points, up 0.61% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 17368.84 billion, an increase of 2216.05 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The main funds in the A-share market saw a net outflow of 140.38 billion, with an opening net outflow of 82.71 billion and a closing net outflow of 16.71 billion [2][4] - The CSI 300 index recorded a net outflow of 18.31 billion, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 32.61 billion and the STAR Market a net outflow of 13.56 billion [4] Sector Performance - Among the 12 sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry classification, 12 sectors experienced net inflows, with the non-bank financial sector leading with a net inflow of 121 billion [6] - The top five sectors with net inflows included: - Non-bank financial: 121 billion, up 2.35% - Computer: 118.21 billion, up 1.98% - Non-ferrous metals: 71.03 billion, up 2.15% - Defense and military: 37.90 billion, up 1.17% - Machinery: 8.78 billion, up 0.63% [6] - The sectors with the largest net outflows included: - Basic chemicals: -57.55 billion, down 0.02% - Banks: -50.10 billion, down 1.91% - Electric power equipment: -49.83 billion, down 0.16% - Automotive: -19.20 billion, up 0.40% - Real estate: -17.56 billion, up 0.48% [6] Institutional Activity - Institutional investors showed significant interest in several stocks, with notable net purchases in Guorui Technology and others, while Huaguang Huaneng saw net selling [8] - The top stocks with institutional net purchases included: - Guorui Technology: 6520.86 million, up 20.01% - Zhongke Jincai: 5226.27 million, up 4.84% - Zhongdali De: 5046.33 million, up 10.01% [9] Analyst Ratings - Recent analyst ratings highlighted several stocks with potential upside, including: - Jerry Shares: Target price 43.59, current price 35.24, upside 23.69% - Keda Xunfei: Target price 60.00, current price 46.98, upside 27.71% - Xinghuo Technology: Target price 10.44, current price 7.52, upside 38.83% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is on the net inflow and outflow of major funds in various industries, highlighting the performance of specific sectors and stocks in the market on July 11. Group 1: Industry Performance - The computer and non-bank financial sectors saw significant net inflows, each exceeding 30 billion yuan [2] - Among the 25 industries with net outflows, the electronics sector had the highest outflow at 34.4 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment and media sectors, each exceeding 20 billion yuan [2] - Other sectors such as telecommunications, retail, food and beverage, and real estate also experienced net outflows exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - A total of 73 stocks had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with 12 stocks seeing inflows over 3 billion yuan [3] - Dongfang Caifu led with a net inflow of 15.97 billion yuan, benefiting from the launch of the HarmonyOS intelligent framework [3] - Zhongyin Securities recorded a net inflow of 4.65 billion yuan, with analysts optimistic about the growth of brokerage and investment banking businesses due to a favorable market environment [4] Group 3: Tail-End Market Activity - At the end of the trading day, the market saw a net outflow of 16.71 billion yuan, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals attracting significant late-stage investments [7] - Individual stocks such as Yuxin Technology, Changliang Technology, and WuXi AppTec had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan in the tail end [8] - Yuxin Technology, in particular, saw a net inflow of 2.34 billion yuan, focusing on stablecoin ecosystem partnerships [8]