五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-08-28 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 【交易策略】 斯小伟 大豆进口成本近期维持弱稳趋势，关注企稳后成本表现。国内豆粕市场供需双旺，提货持续处于高水平， 预计现货端 9 月可能进入去库，支撑油厂榨利。后市关注美豆自身格局向好、巴西种植季节交易能否边 际改善当前供大于求的格局，榨利端关注提货水平能否持续，预计豆粕以区间震荡为主，建议在豆粕成 本区间低位逢低试多，高位注意榨利、供应压力。 油脂 【重要资讯】 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周三美豆窄幅下跌，市场权衡全球大豆供应压力。国内豆粕因库存较高及预期供应充足相对较弱，周三 国内豆粕现货小幅下跌 20 元/吨，华东基差 01-110 持平，豆粕成交较弱，提货较好。下游库存天数小幅 上升 0.16 天至 8.51 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 227 万吨，本周预计压 ...

黑龙江省黑土优品标准化技术委员会是经省市场监管局批准，由省农业农村厅申请筹建，秘书处设在省 农科院农产品质量安全研究所。 26日，黑龙江省黑土优品标准化技术委员会成立，将对推动全省"黑土优品"品牌建设规范化、科学化、 标准化发挥重要的支撑保障作用。 据悉，筹建黑土优品标准化技术委员会，建立"黑土优品"标准体系是加强"黑土优品"品牌建设、夯实提 升龙江农产品市场竞争力技术的具体举措；要统筹推进标准化领域的重大改革，搭建"黑土优品"标准化 协调机制，有序推进标准化建设工作，确保标准具备科学性、规范性与时效性，不断提升标准质量。 (记者宋晨曦) ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating trade conflict between India and the United States, triggered by the U.S. doubling tariffs on Indian goods, has led to significant retaliatory measures from India, highlighting the fragility of global trade dynamics and the potential for a broader economic fallout [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Measures and Responses - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 50%, targeting India's $54 billion export trade to the U.S. [3] - In retaliation, India has suspended a $3.6 billion order for Boeing P-8I aircraft and is continuing to import discounted oil from Russia [3][7]. - India has imposed retaliatory tariffs totaling $725 million on U.S. agricultural products, specifically targeting key crops from swing states [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The trade conflict has resulted in a 7% drop in Modi's approval ratings and a 4.5% increase in food prices in India [16]. - U.S. consumers are expected to bear 88% of the tariff costs, leading to an additional annual expense of $1,300 per household [16]. - The conflict has prompted a shift in supply chains, with orders moving from India to Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand due to lower tariffs [15]. Group 3: Strategic Alliances and Energy - India has completed an $8.7 billion oil transaction with Russia, marking a significant shift in currency usage away from the dollar [11]. - The share of Russian oil in India's imports has surged to 42%, allowing India to save approximately $48 million daily [12]. - India is strengthening ties with China, evidenced by a record purchase of 150,000 tons of soybean oil and a relaxation of visa policies for Chinese citizens [13]. Group 4: Military and Defense - The cancellation of the Boeing military order is a direct hit to the U.S. defense industry, which relies heavily on the Indian market [7]. - India's defense procurement strategy is increasingly leaning towards Russian arms, including the accelerated purchase of S-400 missiles, raising concerns for U.S. strategic interests in the region [16].

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, highlighting the ongoing investment cooperation between China and SCO member countries [1] - As of July 2025, China's investment stock in other SCO member countries exceeds $84 billion, with cooperation expanding from traditional sectors like oil and gas to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [1] - China has signed investment protection agreements with all member countries, including upgraded agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, enhancing mutual investment protection and improving investment access [1] Group 2 - Trade between China and other SCO member countries reached a record high of approximately $512.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and is double the trade volume during the 2018 Qingdao Summit [2] - In the previous year, China imported nearly $90 billion worth of oil, natural gas, and coal from other member countries, with energy products accounting for about one-fifth of China's total imports [2] - The connectivity network between China and SCO countries is rapidly forming, with significant infrastructure projects like the China-Russia Tongjiang Railway Bridge and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway underway [2] Group 3 - Following the Tianjin Summit, the Ministry of Commerce will send a delegation to Russia for the 24th SCO Economic Ministers' Meeting on September 6, focusing on implementing the economic outcomes from the Tianjin Summit [3] - Future regional economic cooperation within the SCO will focus on integrated trade and investment development, deepening international supply chain cooperation, and enhancing connectivity [3] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to further improve the regional economic cooperation framework by upgrading trade and investment agreements with more member countries and promoting the coordinated development of goods, services, and digital trade [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs forecasts that the prices of live pigs and pork are expected to gradually stabilize in the future [2] - The domestic supply of early indica rice and regrowth rice is abundant, leading to a weak trend in rice prices [1] - Domestic wheat prices are expected to remain stable due to sufficient supply and reduced demand from flour consumption and feed enterprises [1] - The domestic corn market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to run steadily with a slight upward bias [1] - Domestic soybean prices are anticipated to remain stable as the market is in a seasonal consumption lull [1] Group 2: Specific Crop Insights - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate due to declining commercial stocks and weakened textile consumption [2] - Domestic oilseed prices are projected to remain stable, while Canadian canola prices may trend slightly lower [2] - Sugar prices are expected to remain stable domestically, but international sugar prices may weaken due to increased supply from Brazil and favorable weather in Thailand and India [2] - The short-term pork market is characterized by ample supply, but prices are expected to weaken due to adverse weather affecting transportation and consumption [2]

8 月下旬的美印关系，活像一场没按剧本走的闹剧， 美国国土安全部 8月25日放话，27日起对印度商品加征 50% 关税；同一天，《法兰克福汇报》爆猛 料：特朗普近一个月四次给莫迪打电话，全被挂了。更巧的是，莫迪马上要启程访华，特朗普偏在这节骨眼上 "搞事情"。 于是特朗普在7月31日行政令，宣布对印度商品加征25%关税；一周之后的8月6日又补一刀，以印度"买俄油" 为由再加 25%关税。两道令叠一起，印度输美 商品直接飙升到50%关税。这哪是贸易制裁，是断印度出口企业的活路。 印度五分之一的出口靠美国，服装、宝石、汽车零部件这些吃饭的行当，首当其冲。更糟的是，这会儿正是印度出口企业冲圣诞节订单的关键期，一半年销 售额都靠这阵子，但是关税一生效，大部分订单都已经取消。 特朗普这番话一连踩了印度的两大雷点，首先，印度一直对空战中的损失讳莫如深，印巴停火后，印度全国上下大庆了10天，莫迪政府还派出宣讲团，到各 国宣扬印度的胜利，就是只字不提印军被击落了几架战机，国防参谋长辛格只敢说 "损失有，但原因比数量重要"，连具体数字都不敢报。 阵风战机残骸 其次，印度一直不肯承认特朗普推动了停火，坚称这是印巴双方谈判达成的共 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong export growth of 13% in the first seven months of the year, Thailand's export growth is expected to slow down due to the 19% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imported goods [1] Export Performance - Thailand's export value reached $28.6 billion in July, with a year-on-year growth of 11% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, surpassing market expectations of 9.6% growth [1] - Excluding gold, oil-related products, and weapons, Thailand's exports grew by 16.6% year-on-year, accelerating from 15.6% in June [1] - The cumulative growth rate for the year to date stands at 14.4% [1] Sector Contributions - Industrial exports grew by 14% in July, with significant contributions from electronic components, particularly computers (61% growth) and integrated circuits (55% growth) [1] - Electrical products and rubber products also contributed to growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 9.7%, respectively [1] - Agricultural exports continued to support overall shipment volumes, with strong growth in frozen fruits, processed poultry, pet food, and sugar [1] Challenges and Future Outlook - Rice and rubber exports have contracted for the third consecutive month, with Thai rice facing intense competition after India lifts its export ban in September 2024, and the Philippines suspending imports to protect domestic prices [1] - The poultry sector is expected to be a highlight for Thai freight, supported by increased exports to China [1] - Analysts predict a slowdown in export growth for the remainder of the year due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and the announcement of global tariffs on specific products by Washington [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Media+" initiative in Yunfu City, aimed at enhancing the agricultural market system and promoting rural revitalization through various media and industry integrations [2][83]. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - Yunfu City has officially issued the "Media+ Empowerment 'Hundred Million Project' Agricultural Market System Construction Action Plan (2025-2027)" [2][3]. - The action plan aligns with provincial directives and focuses on increasing agricultural efficiency, rural vitality, and farmers' income [5][84]. - It outlines eight key tasks and three specific support measures, targeting market, industry, culture, agriculture-tourism, branding, technology, talent, and resources [6][8]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Goals - The initiative aims to achieve five main goals: promoting urban-rural consumption, developing agriculture-tourism, facilitating market access, increasing farmers' income, and transforming media [6][8]. - The plan emphasizes the role of media in market expansion, resource integration, brand building, and public opinion guidance to support the "Hundred Million Project" [8][9]. Group 3: Media and Market Integration - The strategy includes innovative "Media+Market" approaches to promote agricultural products through various cultural events and festivals [13][15]. - It aims to expand market reach to regions such as RCEP, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Yangtze River Delta [15][18]. - The plan encourages the establishment of large agricultural enterprises that integrate planting, processing, and sales to enhance the agricultural value chain [18]. Group 4: Cultural Branding and Promotion - The initiative seeks to leverage local cultural resources to create unique cultural IPs and effectively tell the stories of agricultural brands [22][27]. - It promotes the development of "Media+Culture" to enhance the influence of regional public brands like "Yun Agricultural Products" and "Green Nourishment in Yunan" [27][80]. Group 5: Technology and Talent Development - The action plan emphasizes the integration of technology, such as AI and IoT, into agricultural production to strengthen the data foundation for "Media+Technology" [37][81]. - It includes training programs for new farmers to enhance their skills in production, market understanding, media, and operations [39][46]. Group 6: Local Implementation and Collaboration - Each county in Yunfu is actively responding to the action plan by developing specific implementation strategies and launching various initiatives [51][54]. - The collaboration among different media levels and local governments aims to create a comprehensive support system for the agricultural sector [75][78].

Core Viewpoint - The China-Korea Economic and Trade Exchange Conference held in Jilin aims to deepen economic cooperation and enhance people-to-people exchanges between China and South Korea [1][3]. Economic Cooperation - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and South Korea is projected to reach $328.08 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. China has been South Korea's largest trading partner for 21 consecutive years, while South Korea has regained its position as China's second-largest trading partner [1][3]. - Jilin Province has seen continuous growth in its import and export volume with South Korea since 2021, with the number of South Korean enterprises ranking second among foreign-invested companies in the province. Key cooperation areas include automotive parts, biomedicine, ginseng, and agricultural products [1][3]. Industry Collaboration - The conference highlighted the importance of collaboration in artificial intelligence, with both countries recognizing the potential for joint research and commercialization efforts. The South Korean representative emphasized the need for cooperation between universities and research institutions [3]. - The Jilin-Korea International Cooperation Demonstration Zone has established partnerships with various South Korean economic free zones and aims to create broader cooperation opportunities for enterprises from both countries [3][4]. Agreements and Initiatives - During the exchange conference, cooperation agreements were signed between the Jilin-Korea International Cooperation Demonstration Zone and several organizations, focusing on equipment manufacturing and health industries [4].

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to quickly advance legislation to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods, as requested by President Trump, in exchange for a reduction in tariffs on EU automotive exports [2][3] - The EU Commission acknowledges that the trade arrangement with Trump benefits the US but is necessary for providing stability and certainty to businesses [2] - Currently, EU automotive exports to the US face a 27.5% tariff, while a trade agreement aims to reduce US tariffs on nearly all European products to 15%, contingent on the EU's legislative action [2][3] Group 2 - If the EU proposes the legislation by the end of the month, the 15% tariff on European cars will be retroactive to August 1 [3] - The automotive sector is a crucial export for the EU, with Germany exporting $34.9 billion worth of cars and parts to the US in 2024 [3] - Trump's tariff policies are causing a significant shift of European scrap aluminum to the US, threatening the survival of local recycling facilities in Europe [3] Group 3 - The aluminum industry in Europe, with an annual turnover of €40 billion, directly employs 250,000 people and supports an additional 1 million jobs [3] - Exports of aluminum products to the US incur a 50% tariff, severely impacting sales, while scrap aluminum exports face no tariffs [3] - The EU Commission is considering emergency measures to support the struggling aluminum industry, including potential tariffs on all EU scrap aluminum exports [3]