Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

- The DecompGRU model was used to construct a weekly long-only stock selection portfolio, holding the top 200 stocks with the highest integrated scores equally weighted The portfolio is rebalanced weekly based on the updated factor values from the previous Friday's closing prices Stocks with price limits or suspension are excluded, and transaction costs are not considered The benchmark is the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index[8][10] - The DecompGRU model's individual stock scores were aggregated to construct an ETF rotation portfolio The ETF pool is limited to industry and thematic ETFs, retaining only the ETF with the highest average daily trading volume over the past five days if multiple ETFs track the same index The portfolio is rebalanced weekly, holding 2-6 ETFs per period, with a benchmark of the Wind Thematic ETF Index[11][13] - A sentiment factor was constructed using user behavior data from Tonghuashun, aggregating stock-level heat indicators (browsing, watchlist, and click counts) normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000 This aggregated heat indicator serves as a proxy for "sentiment heat" at the broad-based index, industry, and concept levels[15][19][28] - A simple rotation strategy was built based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate on the last trading day of each week If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%[21][24] - A concept-level sentiment strategy was constructed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates, excluding the bottom 20% of stocks by market capitalization within each concept From each concept, the top 10 stocks by total heat were equally weighted to form the "TOP" portfolio, while the bottom 10 stocks formed the "BOTTOM" portfolio The BOTTOM portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[39][41][42] - The DecompGRU TOP200 portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% and an excess return of 38.96% relative to the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index since its inception on March 31, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 10.08%, with a weekly win rate of 68.18% and a monthly win rate of 100% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 8.99%, with an excess return of 0.98%[10] - The ETF rotation portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 40.08% and an excess return of 5.93% relative to the Wind Thematic ETF Index since its inception on March 18, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 7.82%, with a weekly win rate of 64.44% and a monthly win rate of 70% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 10.98%, with an excess return of 3.37%[13][14] - The broad-based index heat momentum strategy achieved a cumulative return of 6.6% in 2026[24] - The concept-level sentiment BOTTOM portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 3.7% in 2026[42]

2月2日， A股市场重挫，商业航天主题延续回落，截至收盘，航空ETF汇添富(159257)冲高后受到大市影响回落，最终收跌1.82%，已连续4日缩量走阴。 航空ETF汇添富(159257)标的指数成分股涨跌不一，天银机电等涨超8%，中国卫星、洪都航空等微涨，航天彩虹、中直股份等回调。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万—级行业 | | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002085 | 万丰奥威 | 汽车 | -1.62% | 4.95% | | 2 | 600316 | 供都航空 | 国防车 | 0.02% | 3.79% | | 3 | 300342 | 天银机电 | 家用电器 | 8.95% | 3.70% | | 4 | 002389 | 航大彩虹 | 国防车 | -2.90% | 3.47% | | 5 | 600038 | 中直股份 | 国防军工 | -2.05% | 3.32% | | 6 | 600879 | 航天电子 | 国防空 | -0.70% | 3.18% | | 7 | 300045 | 华力创通 | 国防空 | ...

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Index Adjustment - The North Exchange 50 Index will undergo its first adjustment of 2026 on March 16, with three companies expected to be added: Tiangong Co., Ltd., Guangxin Technology, and Jikang Technology[2][14] - The adjustment will remove companies that rank low based on average daily market capitalization, with no substantial impact on the operations of the companies being removed[2][18] Index Fund Growth - The scale of North Exchange 50 index funds has seen significant growth from 2.94 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.165 billion CNY by January 31, 2026[2][18] - The number of products tracking the North Exchange 50 index increased from 16 in 2022 to 79 by the end of January 2026[2][18] Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,531.55 points, down 3.59% from the previous week, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) of 64.12X[2][32] - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A-shares decreased to 47.58X, while the ChiNext and STAR Market also saw declines in their PE ratios[2][23][32] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 29.948 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 11.62% week-over-week[2][26] - The average turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares was 5.88%, up by 0.44 percentage points[2][26] Valuation Trends - As of January 31, 2026, 44.86% of North Exchange companies had a PETTM exceeding 45X, indicating a high valuation environment[2][37] - The valuation gap between North Exchange and other markets is widening, suggesting a relative valuation advantage for North Exchange stocks[2][47]

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The military sector is expected to have a long-term positive trend, supported by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and modernizing national defense [7][8] - The military industry index fell by 7.60% from January 26 to January 31, underperforming the broader market by 7.16 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors [12][13] - The training program for the Fujian aircraft carrier is progressing smoothly, with expectations that it will be capable of entering the Pacific for long-range training by 2026 [8][9] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The military industry is experiencing a downturn, but the Fujian aircraft carrier's training plan is advancing as scheduled [8] - The report highlights several companies for investment, including: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, Aero Engine Corporation of China, and High-Tech Infrared 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Zhimin Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, and Unisplendour 3. Subsystems: Aerospace Electronics, Guorui Technology, Guobo Electronics, AVIC Avionics, North Navigation, and Aerospace Nanhu 4. Materials and Processing: Jiachitech, AVIC High-Tech, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, Hanya Technology, Guangwei Composite, Filihua, Huayin Technology, and Plit [9][10] Market Review - The military industry index underperformed the market, with a decline of 7.60% compared to a 0.44% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 0.09% drop in the ChiNext Index [12][13] - The best-performing index was the China Securities National Security Index, which fell by 6.21% [14] - The defense information technology sector showed better performance, with notable gains from stocks like *ST Chengchang (+15.48%) and Western Materials (+13.02%) [16][21] Major News in the Military Industry - International tensions are escalating, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran and threats from Houthi forces [25][26] - The Russian military has conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in injuries and power outages across multiple regions [26] - The report notes that the Fujian aircraft carrier is on track to achieve operational capabilities by 2026, which is seen as a positive development for China's naval capabilities [28]

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The military sector is expected to have a long-term positive trend, supported by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and advancing the modernization of national defense and armed forces [7][8] - The military industry index fell by 7.60% from January 26 to January 31, underperforming the broader market by 7.16 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors [12][13] - The training plan for the Fujian aircraft carrier is progressing smoothly, with expectations that it will be capable of entering the Pacific for long-range training by 2026 [8][9] Summary by Sections Market Review - The military sector experienced a decline of 7.60%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.44% [12][13] - The China Securities National Security Index performed the best among military indices, with a decline of 6.21%, ranking 1st out of 10 [14][18] - The defense information technology sector showed better performance, with notable gains from stocks like *ST Chengchang (+15.48%) and West Materials (+13.02%) [16][21] Major News in the Military Industry - International tensions are escalating, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran, and the Houthis threatening shipping in the Red Sea [25][26] - The Russian military conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in injuries and power outages across multiple regions [26] - The Chinese Ministry of Defense confirmed the successful training progress of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which is expected to enhance its operational capabilities by 2026 [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, Aero Engine Corporation of China, and High-Def Infrared 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Zhimin Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, and Unisoc 3. Subsystems: Aerospace Electronics, Guorui Technology, Guobo Electronics, AVIC Onboard, Northern Navigation, and Aerospace Nanhu 4. Materials and Processing: Jiachitech, AVIC High-Tech, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, and Huayin Technology [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a transition from a strong momentum phase to a high-level consolidation phase, with the "steady and far-reaching" policy supporting this shift. The market's internal strength is gradually declining, indicating a need for time to digest valuations and performance [2][6]. Short-term Market Positioning - The short-term market has reached historical high levels, with the A-share floating profit also retreating from these highs. The average holding period remains at historically low levels, indicating excessive trading behavior. The technology sectors that initially led the market have seen a reduction in attractiveness, while cyclical sectors are also experiencing a decline in internal stability [3][5]. Long-term Market Positioning - The opening red market is an extension of the structural market of 2025, with expectations of a mid-term fundamental upcycle. However, as valuations reach historical highs, the market faces increased resistance, necessitating a transition from upward to consolidation phases. This requires time for performance to catch up with valuations [5][21]. Market Characteristics at High Valuation Levels - Four key characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include: 1. Increased difficulty in raising valuations. 2. Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, requiring new performance drivers. 3. High sensitivity to liquidity shocks, which could trigger adjustments from upper to lower consolidation ranges. 4. The need for "perfect performance validation" to avoid downward adjustments [21][22]. Sector Performance Insights - Various sectors, including communication, electronics, defense, and basic chemicals, have reached historical high valuation levels. The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical highs, indicating a need for performance to catch up with these valuations [5][23]. Policy Impact - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the market's transition to the next phase, characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation. This policy is likely to influence the performance of heavyweight stocks that have been under pressure [24][22].

01 市场回顾 国内方面，本周A股震荡走弱，主要指数多数收跌。中小盘与成长指数领跌，科创50收跌2.85%、中证500收跌2.56%、中证1000收跌 2.55%，深证成指、创业板指同步走弱；仅上证50收涨1.13%、沪深300收涨0.08%，反映资金向大盘蓝筹避险标的倾斜。国债收益率走势分 化，3-10年期下行，其它期限上行。 商品市场方面，本周贵金属经历史诗级回调，而原油表现延续强势。黄金方面，周初受避险情绪与政策预期的双重推动，金价一路突破绝 对历史高点；后因美联储新任主席提名引发市场获利回吐，美元指数上涨和技术超买修正导致金价短期下跌，机构投资者大量抛售。原油 方面，美伊地缘局势紧张，哈萨克斯坦输油管道因无人机袭击受阻，以及美国寒潮导致原油出口中断，推升油价大涨。 （数据来源：iFinD，日期截至2026年1月30日，指数过往业绩不预示其未来表现，投资需谨慎） 02 行业情况 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现(2026/1/26-2026/1/30) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...