一棵橡胶树从种植到开割，需要九年时间。这九年，也是上海期货交易所天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目扎 根、成长、开花结果的九年。建信期货与中国太平洋财产保险云南省分公司一同在勐海县开展以"八载 织密保障网，深耕云南'保险+期货'助橡胶稳健前行"为主题的宣传赔付会议，项目自2025年9月2日启 动，至2025年12月2日结束，持续92个自然日，投保2000吨天然橡胶，保险费总金额143万元, 最终赔付 金额总计118.6万元，总体赔付率82.94%。 项目参与各方在会上进行交流，向胶农介绍"保险+期货"项目成果，让胶农从"望天收"到"安心割"，深 刻感受到金融企业服务实体经济的决心。建信期货朱鸣元说，金融服务的本质是"风险共担、利益共 享"，只有让农户真正从市场中获益，"保险+期货"模式才能实现可持续发展。未来，建信期货将持续 以"为农坚守"为初心，通过专业化、定制化的金融服务，助力云南乡村振兴。 本报讯 "农为邦本，本固邦宁"，党的二十届三中全会为强化"三农"支持、发展农业保险指明了方向。 今年下半年，建信期货受邀参加由中国太平洋财产保险云南省分公司主办的"金融赋能云南乡村振兴暨 农业高质量发展研讨会"。建信期货以" ...

橡胶板块2025年12月第3周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：泰国越南天气正常，下游轮胎需求平稳 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶市场均呈现价格上涨趋势。天然橡胶方面，上海全乳胶均价上涨至14975元/吨，涨幅1.53%；山东市场 STR20#混合胶均价上涨至14479元/吨，涨幅0.78%。顺丁橡胶方面，华北地区BR9000市场价格上涨至10500元/吨，涨幅3.4%；华北地区 BR9000均价上涨至10390元/吨，同比去年同期跌22.64%。 供应方面：天然橡胶因云南产区全面停割，导致国内供应减少，而海外供应则呈现增长趋势。具体来看，云南11月底停割、海南产区逐步减 产；海外方面，泰国、越南天气正常，新胶呈现季节性增量。顺丁橡胶市场供应相对稳定，但受到茂名石化检修影响，供应略有减少，周内 振华新材料装置正常生产，茂名石化延续停车；山东裕龙石化恢复正常生产，其他装置维持正常生产为主。 需求方面：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶下游需求表现比较平稳，主要下游轮胎企业开工小幅调整。下游采购方面，下游逢低刚需补货，采买情 绪一般。 库存方面：天然橡胶青岛地 ...

"深入贯彻落实习近平总书记视察枣庄重要指示要求，如何创新推动石榴产业发展？""做优品牌、 提高品质、完善产业链，在释放石榴这一土特产的经济潜力中发挥了哪些作用？""结合榴园镇石榴产业 的蓬勃发展，您认为农村党员应如何推动本土特色产业发展？"这是围绕同一重大主题，省级、枣庄市 指导峄城区、榴园镇立足各自党员教育培训需求，开发的党员培训课程的思考题。 持续强化优质内容供给，山东从资源整合、渠道拓展、师资培育三方面入手，推动分级分类课程资 源直达基层、惠及党员。 宁津县柴胡店镇王世英村党支部书记陈绪勇不仅带领本村发展泥鳅养殖改善生活，还整合附近村庄 资源开展水产特色养殖实现共富。如今，他常常受邀向基层党员干部分享发展特色产业、强化党组织凝 聚力的实践经验与心得。 为进一步建强师资队伍、夯实教学支撑，山东重点从基层党组织书记、优秀党员、党代表、乡土人 才、选调生等群体中发掘培育本土师资，每年举办全省党员培训课程开发与师资队伍建设示范培训班， 每两年完成基层师资轮训，完善名师带徒、跟班听课等机制。2025年以来，省市县三级已开展师资培 训、备课说课等活动480余场次，为课程落地提供坚实人才保障。（记者 刘一颖 通讯员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【中国前11个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.7%】据中国海关总署12月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前11个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达883万吨，同比增长3.7%； 出口金额为1537亿元，同比增长2.5%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达850万吨，同比增长3.5%；出口金额为1477亿元，同比增长2.3%。按条数计算，出 口量达64,321万条，同比增长3.8%。1-11月汽车轮胎出口量为751万吨，同比增长3.1%；出口金额为1266亿元，同比增长1.7%。 2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Overseas raw material prices are high, supporting rubber prices, but China's natural rubber inventory continues to accumulate significantly, with notable inventory pressure and low market acceptance of high - priced rubber. Under the game between long and short positions, rubber prices are expected to show a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to November 2025 increased year - on - year, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 8.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the export amount reaching 153.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In November, the output of rubber tire casings decreased year - on - year [5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of tires in the United States increased year - on - year, but the import volume from China decreased [6]. - The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) approved an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote measures to stabilize rubber prices, aiming to digest 250,000 tons of rubber annually [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign rubber prices fluctuated slightly, with RU slightly falling and NR, SGX TSR20, and JPX RSS3 slightly rising. As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%; the closing price of NR2605 was 12,390 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [9][11]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region has entered the rainy season with recent decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in the northeast has ended with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [37][39]. - Raw material prices: The suspension of tapping in domestic production areas is accelerating, and overseas raw material prices are high due to the continuous tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia [41]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports to China increased month - on - month. Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month in November, and exports to China decreased significantly [61][64][67][73][75]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. In November, tire exports increased slightly month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales increased slightly month - on - month in October. Passenger car sales continued to grow in November, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. In November, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [85][90][91]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: As of December 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.1529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.50%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86% [101]. - Futures inventory: As of December 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.94%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [103]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Market outlook: The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. High overseas raw material prices support rubber prices, but China's large - scale inventory accumulation puts pressure on the market, resulting in low acceptance of high - priced rubber [106][107]. - Valuation: On Friday, the price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 2,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 720 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [108]. - Supply strategy: For the single - side strategy of RU, it is recommended to wait and see; for the inter - period strategy, a long - short spread between January and May contracts is suggested as the peak production period may put more pressure on the May contract; for the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to observe [109].

利比里亚《非洲首页报》12月18日报道：利比里亚橡胶出口商与小农近日集体反驳部分媒体的"偏 见性报道"，指责其成为外国橡胶巨头的"雇佣喉舌"，意图削弱本土经营者、巩固行业垄断。争议源于 一篇题为《利比里亚经济面临严重威胁》的报道，被批评片面渲染本土从业者的困境，却淡化如费尔斯 通等跨国企业的做法。业内指出，本土经营者正面临全球胶价波动（2025年末约1500美元/吨）、供应 链中断及生产成本上涨等多重压力，任何违法行为指控应通过调查与正当程序处理，而非通过煽动性报 道瓦解利比里亚企业。他们警告，若实施橡胶出口禁令，将导致本地市场过剩、收购价暴跌，重演 1970-80年代资源外流至外资低价收购站的历史，使约10万从业者（尤其是占出口量40%-50%的小农） 陷入贫困，并加剧外资主导的"经济再殖民化"。行业呼吁政府采取审慎行动：一方面需保护本土生产 者、调查有偏颇的媒体报道，另一方面应通过透明监管、扶持合作社及鼓励本地加工等措施平衡行业发 展。决策必须兼顾长远，切忌在这一年产值约1.5-2亿美元、关乎国家经济主权与乡村生计的支柱产业 中，因急切的短期监管手段而动摇国家的长期产业自主与民生根本。 （原标题：利比里亚 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 泰柬冲突影响供应预期，支撑海外端原料价格 | 天然橡胶库存去化有所不畅，小幅累库 | | 丁二烯库存压力有所缓解，支撑价格 | 顺丁橡胶产量高位，厂内库存去化不畅 | | | 轮胎库存去化不畅，拖累产能利用率 | 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中略偏强 ➢ 成本方面，12月18日，泰国地区胶水价格为55.8泰铢/千克，杯胶价格为51泰铢/千克，均较前期有所走强。国内海南 地区原料价格为13000元/吨。国内产区逐步停割胶价维持稳定，海外产区受泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级，引发了 市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区，实际产量影响有限，但这一事件推动胶 价表现偏强，橡胶成本端存支撑。 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶整体小幅累库 基本面概况 本周天然橡胶盘面维持横盘震荡，合成橡胶表现 ...