Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from September 8 to 14, with a slight decrease in production material prices by 0.2% compared to the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw a minor decline, with grapes, citrus, and apples decreasing by 3.1%, 2.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cucumber, broccoli, and cauliflower decreasing by 8.7%, 4.4%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products showed a slight decline, with crucian carp, carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.97 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight increase, with eggs and broilers rising by 3.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene declining by 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, while methanol increased by 0.5% [2] - Coal prices showed a stable decline, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 1001 yuan and 756 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while smokeless block coal remained unchanged at 1136 yuan per ton [2] - Fertilizer prices continued to decline, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices experienced a slight decrease, with 92-octane gasoline, 0-octane diesel, and 95-octane gasoline dropping by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight retreat, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with high-speed wire, rebar, and welded steel pipes priced at 3547 yuan, 3366 yuan, and 3795 yuan per ton, all decreasing by 0.1%, while ordinary medium plates, hot-rolled strips, and channel steel increased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight increase, with aluminum and zinc rising by 0.8% and 0.6%, while copper prices remained unchanged [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. A strategy of building option portfolios mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies is recommended to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 501, with a price increase of 8 and a price change rate of 1.56% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: It shows the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.87, with no change, and the open interest PCR is 1.15, with a change of 0.03 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570, and the support level is 480 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of each option variety. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.445, and the weighted implied volatility is 31.93, with a change of - 0.21 [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil)**: - **Fundamentals**: European ARA weekly data shows changes in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories. - **Market Analysis**: Since July, crude oil has shown a bearish market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a sideways market. The pressure level is 570, and the support level is 480. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [8]. - **LPG Options**: - **Fundamentals**: Factory inventory and port inventory have increased. - **Market Analysis**: It shows an oversold rebound market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the average, and the open interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating a sideways market. The pressure level is 5300, and the support level is 4200. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol Options**: - **Fundamentals**: High port inventory persists, but most negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a weak - biased market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility has decreased and fluctuates below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating a weak - sideways market. The pressure level is 2400, and the support level is 2250. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: Build a put option bear spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: - **Fundamentals**: Terminal load remains flat, and port inventory has increased. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a weak - biased market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4250. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: Build a put option bear spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Build a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, etc.)**: - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory, and the downstream average operating rate has increased. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene shows a weak - biased market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility of polypropylene has decreased to below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weakening trend. The pressure level is 7400, and the support level is 6700. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber Options**: - **Fundamentals**: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a weak - sideways market with support below and pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility has risen sharply and then dropped to around the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 17000, and the support level is 15750. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Polyester Options (PTA, etc.)**: - **Fundamentals**: Downstream load has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - **Market Analysis**: PTA shows a weak - bearish market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility of PTA fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a sideways market. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 4600. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: - **Fundamentals**: National liquid caustic soda factory inventory has decreased. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a downward - sideways market with pressure above. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak - sideways market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2400. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14]. - **Soda Ash Options**: - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory have changed. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a low - level upward market with support below. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1300, and the support level is 1200. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: Not specified; Volatility strategy: Build a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [14]. - **Urea Options**: - **Fundamentals**: China's urea enterprise total inventory has increased, but some enterprises' inventory has decreased due to export orders. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a low - level sideways and weak market. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1620. - **Strategies**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to a temporary tightening of supply, steady demand growth, and favorable macroeconomic factors [1] Demand Side Expectations - Internationally, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, providing support for the commodity market. August non-farm payrolls added 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, which has enhanced market expectations for the probability and extent of rate cuts. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 will be crucial [2] - Domestically, multiple policies are working together to boost consumer confidence and improve market development expectations. The reintroduction of national subsidies in September, focusing on the automotive sector, is expected to increase vehicle sales by 10%, directly benefiting downstream demand for natural rubber. In August, domestic automobile production reached 2.815 million units, a month-on-month increase of 223,900 units, with a growth rate of 8.64%. The inventory warning index for automobile dealers decreased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a clear trend of increased production and reduced inventory [2] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, coupled with the national subsidy policy, tire manufacturers' operating rates are expected to further rise. As of September 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires rose to 66.31%, a weekly increase of 5.57 percentage points, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires reached 72.61%, a weekly increase of 5.69 percentage points. Although the inventory days in Shandong remain at a high level compared to the past five years, they have decreased by 1.69% from the previous month, indicating a marginal alleviation of inventory pressure [2] Supply Side Conditions - As rainfall decreases and weather improves in major production areas, the efficiency of rubber tapping has increased, leading to a weakening of support for rubber prices from the raw material side. Although Thailand and Hainan are still experiencing peak rainfall, the weekly rainfall in Thailand has decreased by 1.08%, while Hainan's rainfall has increased by 133.02%. The peak rainfall season in Yunnan has ended, with a recent weekly decrease of 21.21% in rainfall, significantly improving tapping conditions [3] - Raw material prices are stabilizing domestically while showing slight declines internationally. As of September 15, the price of Yunnan rubber remained at 14,800 yuan per ton, stable in recent times. The FOB price of Thai cup rubber has dropped to 51 Thai baht per kilogram, down 1.7 Thai baht per kilogram from the previous week, while the FOB price of cup rubber has slightly increased by 0.2 Thai baht per kilogram compared to last week [3] Potential Risks - On September 10, Mexico proposed to raise tariffs on cars from Asia to a maximum of 50% to protect local jobs. If this policy is implemented, it may impact domestic automobile exports and subsequently affect natural rubber demand. However, there has not yet been a substantial impact [4] - Previously, OPEC+ maintained its production increase strategy, leading to expectations of falling oil prices, which in turn dragged down synthetic rubber prices and affected natural rubber trends. Future international geopolitical conflicts may boost oil prices, causing fluctuations in synthetic rubber prices. As a major substitute for natural rubber, the price trends of synthetic rubber will continue to influence market sentiment for natural rubber [4] - Overall, the current domestic natural rubber market's growth in demand, tightening inventory, and favorable macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the marginal supply from production areas has weakened raw material support, the resilience of demand and macroeconomic support still dominate the market [4]

化工日报 | 2025-09-17 市场交投清淡，下游刚性采购 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16040元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨；NR主力合约12715元/吨，较前一日变动+5 元/吨；BR主力合约11675元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年同期的92万吨增加14.4%。 单看8月数据，出口量同比增加14.8%，环比则下降8.9%。 科特迪瓦是非洲重要的天然橡胶生产国。近些年科特迪 瓦橡胶出口连年增加，因农户受稳定的收益驱使，将播种作物从可可转为橡胶。 据第一商用车网统计数据显示，2025年8月份，我国重卡市场销量8.4万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比微降1%，比上年同期的6.25万辆增长约35%。今年1-8月，我国重卡市场累计销量约70.8万辆，同比增长 ...

| 象胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 9月16日 | 9月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15150 | 15000 | 150 | 1.00% | | | 全乳基元 | -890 | -ddc | 105 | 10.55% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15150 | 14950 | 200 | 1.34% | | | 非标价差 | -890 | -1045 | 155 | 14.83% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.20 | 52.55 | -0.35 | -0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.20 | 56.00 | 0.20 | 0.36% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13200 | 13200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - **PTA**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, and the start - up rate has increased. Polyester load has slightly risen, inventory is stable, the basis is weak, and spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up has increased, and overseas plants have restarted. In the future, TA de - stocking will slow down, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are extremely low and have lasted for a long time. With the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - **MEG**: Near - end domestic oil - based EG is stable, coal - based start - up has slightly increased, and overall load has recovered. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restarts. Port inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream stocking levels have increased, the basis has weakened, and the benefit ratio has shrunk. New EG devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. In the future, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [6]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - end plants such as Sanfangxiang and Yizheng have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has reached 94.4%. Production and sales have improved, and inventory has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end is stable, raw material stocking has decreased, and finished product inventory has decreased. In the future, the rate of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down. The start - up rate of staple fiber is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, and inventory pressure is limited. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: National explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. Rainfall has affected rubber tapping [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on POY, PX CFR, PTA internal spot, etc. are presented, including prices, spreads, and load rates. For example, on September 10, PX CFR was 67.5, and PTA internal spot was 603 [1]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, and the start - up rate has increased [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on MEG internal and external prices, cash flow, load, and inventory are provided. For example, on September 10, MEG internal price was 4439, and the load was 74.9 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end domestic oil - based EG is stable, coal - based start - up has slightly increased, and overall load has recovered. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restarts [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From September 1 - 16, 2025, data on spot prices, spreads, and load rates are given. For example, on September 1, the spot price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber was 6540 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Near - end plants such as Sanfangxiang and Yizheng have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has reached 94.4% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From September 1 - 16, 2025, data on prices of Thai glue, cup lump rubber, and various rubber products are presented. For example, on September 1, the price of Thai glue was 1855 [6]. - **Main Contradictions**: National explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. Rainfall has affected rubber tapping [6]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene, Pure Benzene, etc.**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, data on prices and production profits of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products are provided. For example, on September 10, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 840, and the production profit of non - integrated styrene was - 338 [10].

Market Overview - On September 16, the rubber sector increased by 0.07% compared to the previous trading day, with Fengmao Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Stock Performance - Fengmao Co., Ltd. (301459) closed at 45.61, up 3.99% with a trading volume of 23,800 lots and a turnover of 107 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Shuangjian Co., Ltd. (002381) at 6.90, up 1.92% [1] - Sanlisi (002224) at 4.54, up 1.57% [1] - YGHT (300121) at 15.77, up 1.35% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 4.98 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 34.87 million yuan [2] - Key stocks in fund flow include: - YGHT (300121) with a net inflow of 28.61 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) with a net inflow of 14.82 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Fengmao Co., Ltd. (301459) had a net outflow of 3.20 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]