中金研究 2025年上半年，虽然政策不确定性有明显升高，但全球经济整体平稳运行，除美联储外的其他主要央行持续降息。我们认为下半年，美国和非美地区 的经济动能将走向收敛，主要受美国经济放缓的推动。非美地区因货币政策相对宽松，产出缺口仍有修复空间具备一定优势，但下半年的修复幅度面 临高政策不确定性以及上半年出口和增长前置的制约。在这个背景下，下半年我们更看好非美地区的机会，对欧洲市场保持相对乐观，提升新兴市场 的权重。但我们认为区域表现的分化或小于上半年，建议平衡配置。行业层面展望下半年，自下而上我们分析师对所覆盖行业的偏好依次为: 科技（通 信、软件、广告>电子>内容），工业（电力设备>自动化），金融，我们对消费以及偏消费的制造业（家电、汽车）、大宗原材料保持谨慎。 *本文为原文报告部分节选，原文还涵盖1季度全球行业业绩回顾和全球主要公司针对关税影响的反馈，以及具体投资建议，详见《 全球研究2025下半 年展望： 贸易冲击与经济格局重塑下的全球投资 》 点击小程序查看报告原文 贸易冲击与经济格局重塑下的全球投资 我们认为下半年 ，美国和非 美地区的经济动能将走向收敛，主要受美国经济放缓的推动。 在美国私人部门的 ...

| 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 耐克 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 苏泊尔 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 李宁 | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 海信家电 | | Outperform | | 海尔智家 | Outperform 安克创新 | | Outperform | | 露露柠檬 | Neutral | 珀莱雅 | Outperform | | 中国中免 | Outperform 科沃斯 | | Outperform | | 百胜中国-S | Outperform 海信视像 | | Outperform | | 小商品城 | Outperform 稳健医疗 | | Outperform | | 三花智控 | Outperform 视源股份 | | Outperform | | TCL ...

Group 1: Pop Mart's Expansion - Pop Mart's independent jewelry brand popop opened its first global store in Shanghai, featuring popular IP jewelry priced between 319-2699 yuan [1] - The brand aims to capture a share of the global $50 billion fashion jewelry market, leveraging its existing 70-75% female user base and IP brand strength [1] - Pop Mart's market capitalization reached over 360 billion HKD as of June 13, with a target of achieving 20 billion yuan in total revenue by 2025, including 10 billion yuan from overseas markets [1] Group 2: Inditex's Underperformance - Inditex reported Q1 2025 revenue of 8.27 billion euros, below analyst expectations of 8.36 billion euros, with a net income increase of only 0.8% to 1.3 billion euros [2] - Summer sales growth has slowed, with a 6% increase from May 1 to June 9, compared to a 12% increase in the same period last year [2] - Inditex operates 5,562 stores globally and focuses on unique fashion propositions, customer experience, sustainability, and talent development [2] Group 3: H&M's Sales Decline - H&M experienced a sales increase of only 1% in March, down from 4% in the same month last year, with a 2% revenue growth from December 2024 to February 2025, below analyst expectations [3] Group 4: Yonghui Supermarket's Model Adjustment - Yonghui Supermarket completed the adjustment of the "Fat Donglai" model in 100 stores, focusing on upgrading "people, goods, and space" [4] - The company aims to enhance employee skills, transition from "cost performance" to "quality-price ratio," and upgrade retail spaces to quality life centers [4] Group 5: L'Oréal's Acquisition of Medik8 - L'Oréal announced the acquisition of a majority stake in UK skincare brand Medik8, pending regulatory approval, to strengthen its luxury product portfolio [5][6] - Medik8 is known for its effective skincare products and has established a strong brand image in clinical and scientific skincare [6] Group 6: Starbucks' Stake Sale Consideration - Starbucks is considering selling a portion of its Chinese business to attract external investors and restore growth in the region [7] - The CEO noted significant interest from potential investors, with plans to increase store numbers from 8,000 to 20,000 [7] Group 7: New Product Launches - "Let Tea" and JD.com launched a new product, "Orange C Oolong Tea," featuring a no-sugar formula with added vitamin C [8] - Lululemon introduced the second season of its SLNSH designer collaboration series, focusing on breathable and functional materials for summer [9] - Nongfu Spring launched a carbonated tea drink called "Ice Tea," emphasizing natural ingredients and health trends [10] Group 8: Dr. Martens' Revenue Decline - Dr. Martens reported a 10% decline in net revenue to 790 million pounds for FY2025, with net profit dropping significantly to 4.5 million pounds [14] - Direct sales revenue fell by 4.2%, while wholesale revenue decreased by 19.5%, with EMEA and Americas regions seeing declines of 11% and 11.4%, respectively [14] Group 9: Other Company Developments - Salia plans to establish its China headquarters in Guangdong to accelerate its business expansion [15] - Baifei Dairy's IPO application has been accepted, marking the first food consumption project in the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 2024 [16] - Fat Donglai estimates a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, with an average monthly income of 9,000 yuan for employees [17] - Haidilao has introduced a self-service lunch priced at 22 yuan in some locations, reflecting a strategy to find new growth points [18] - Nissin Foods is shifting sales focus to inland markets in China, particularly in industrial towns [19] - General Mills is reportedly considering selling its Haagen-Dazs stores in China for several hundred million dollars [20] - Starbucks China announced a price reduction of 5 yuan on various iced and tea drinks to compete in the growing non-coffee market [21]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has achieved a significant milestone by reaching a global net revenue of $10.6 billion in FY2024, becoming the third sports brand to join the "billion-dollar club" after Nike and Adidas [1]. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenue growth rates and a significant drop in stock price [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2025, Lululemon reported a net revenue of $2.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross profit margin of 58.3% [5]. The company has lowered its revenue growth forecast for FY2025 to 5%-7% [5][6]. - The stock price plummeted by 20% following the release of disappointing earnings guidance, highlighting the disparity between Lululemon's revenue and that of competitors like Nike and Adidas [6][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Lululemon's brand strategy appears to be in conflict as it expands from a niche market of high-end yoga pants to a broader range of athletic apparel, which has diluted its premium image [3][4]. The company is now competing directly with established brands like Nike and Adidas [4]. - The company has faced challenges in appealing to male consumers, as its brand identity is deeply rooted in female-oriented products [4][24]. Regional Performance - China has emerged as a crucial market for Lululemon, with revenue reaching $1.361 billion in the previous year, a 41% increase, significantly outpacing growth in North America [9][11]. The company plans to continue expanding its presence in China, with expectations of 25%-30% revenue growth in the region [12][13]. Competitive Landscape - Alo Yoga, a competitor that focuses on high-end yoga apparel, has capitalized on Lululemon's shift away from its core market, experiencing rapid growth and planning to enter the Chinese market [16][18][19]. This competition poses a risk to Lululemon's market share among its original customer base [20]. Brand Identity and Consumer Perception - Lululemon's transition from a niche brand to a more mainstream one has led to concerns about brand dilution, particularly in China, where the company has faced backlash over its choice of brand ambassadors [14][25]. The brand's identity as a "small, fashionable, and sexy" athletic brand is at risk as it attempts to appeal to a broader audience [25].

Group 1: Convenience Living Circles - The construction of convenience living circles in China has been promoted to better meet residents' daily needs, with 5,510 circles built since 2021, serving 125 million people [1] - Various local initiatives have been implemented to address specific community needs, enhancing consumer experiences within these circles [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reports that over 8,600 elderly service stations and 13,000 childcare institutions have been renovated or updated since the initiative began [3] Group 2: Health and Fitness Services - Community health services have been enhanced with facilities like "health houses" that provide online consultations, allowing residents to connect with healthcare professionals easily [3] - The introduction of smart fitness paths in parks, such as the 2,300-meter path in Jinan, integrates technology to track and analyze citizens' exercise data [6] - Over 13,000 fitness facilities have been updated in trial areas of the convenience living circles, effectively meeting the fitness needs of the public [8] Group 3: Cultural and Recreational Activities - The focus on improving the quality of convenience living circles includes addressing residents' social and entertainment needs, creating a more enriching community experience [9] - Community centers are being upgraded to offer diverse activities, such as dance, vocal training, and art classes, catering to both young and elderly residents [15] - In Guizhou, 33 community cultural stations and 15 urban theme reading rooms have been established, along with 198 community book-sharing systems, enhancing cultural engagement [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of shopping malls in China, highlighting the shift from traditional cosmetics brands to new categories such as trendy toys, outdoor sports, and tea beverage brands, referred to as the "Four Kings" of modern retail [6][11][12]. Group 1: Transformation of Retail Landscape - The flagship store of Innisfree, a Korean beauty brand, has been replaced by Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, symbolizing a broader trend in retail [6][8]. - The "Four Kings" now dominating mall spaces include trendy toys, outdoor sports, new energy vehicles, and diverse tea brands, reflecting changing consumer preferences [8][11]. - The vacancy rate in shopping malls has approached 14% in major cities, providing an opportunity for the "Four Kings" to establish a presence [11]. Group 2: Decline of Traditional Brands - The number of cosmetic counters in China has decreased from 15,415 in 2020 to 11,365 in 2022, with low-end cosmetics experiencing the most significant decline [11][12]. - High-end cosmetic brands like Chanel and Lancôme continue to maintain their presence in malls despite overall declines in sales [12][14]. Group 3: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - New energy vehicle brands have become prominent in malls, with Tesla being a pioneer in this space, shifting the focus from traditional car dealerships to experiential retail [18][19]. - The tea beverage market has seen rapid changes, with brands like Nayuki and Heytea adapting to consumer preferences, while others like Tiger Sugar have exited the market [22][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Opportunities - The article notes that while the "Four Kings" dominate, there are still opportunities for emerging brands like Mao Geping, which has expanded rapidly in the offline market [32][35]. - The future of retail remains uncertain, with the potential for new categories to emerge and replace existing ones, indicating a dynamic and evolving market landscape [36].

以下文章来源于每日人物 ，作者每人作者 上海黄浦区，坐落于南京东路东端的宏伊国际广场，一家巨大的商铺悄悄换了招牌。 店铺的前租客，是来自韩国的美妆品牌悦诗风吟。2015年拿下这家商铺时，悦诗风吟不过才进驻中国三年，就在上海最繁华的商圈南京东路，搭建了其创立 以来亚洲最大的旗舰店，800多平方米，足足三层楼。开业那天，彼时还是韩国顶流的明星李敏镐也来了，作为代言人，他给悦诗风吟剪彩、站台，一时间 风头无两。所有人都从上海初冬的风里，感知到了悦诗风吟扩张的野心。 但七年之后的2022年，颇像一个时代的隐喻，旗舰店换了门脸。泡泡玛特的招牌挂了上去，这家潮玩企业如今凭借旗下IP LABUBU，火遍全球。在这里， 年轻人们一边打卡，一边把店铺的游玩攻略上传到社交平台，光是在小红书，相关的笔记数量就突破了80万篇——如果按照它的开业时长计算，大概每10秒 钟，就有一个人分享Ta的体验。 消费趋势的晴雨表。 文 ｜ 饶桐语 编辑 ｜ 西打 来源｜ 每日人物（ID：meirirenwu） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 商场一楼，挤满"四大金刚" 每日人物 . 轻商业，懂生活。 曾经亚洲最大的悦诗风吟（左）旗舰店，现已改换了 ...

近期受到"苏超"热度影响，足球相关概念反复活跃。 自5月10日开幕以来， 江苏省城市足球 联赛（"苏超"） 吸引了大批球迷前往观赛，也带动6个主场城市文旅消费总额大幅增长。 以下文章来源于财联社早知道 ，作者财联社VIP 财联社早知道 . 准确、快速、权威、专业 由于原定比赛场地很难满足观赛需要， 日前，江苏多个城市申请更换成更多座位、灯光草 皮等条件更好的比赛场地 。官方数据显示，"苏超"目前已吸引了超过18万名球迷涌入各个 主场城市现场观赛，上座率堪比职业足球联赛。 随着"苏超"的火爆出圈，有网友通过问政四川平台留言呼吁四川举办类似的足球赛事。对 此，四川省体育局答复称，"巴蜀雄起杯"川超联赛将借鉴"苏超"联赛的健康发展经验，完 善赛事体系，强化监管，推动公平竞赛，并动员社会力量参与，促进群众足球与校园足球发 展，助力全民健身。 此外，广东省足协官网发布通知，2025赛季"粤超"计划于7月至10月 期间举行，共将有16支球队参赛，目前处于预报名阶段。 银河证券社服团队指出，自2019年国务院发布《体育强国建设纲要》以来，政策对体育赛 道支持度持续提升，叠加体育消费主力以青年群体为主，共同推动体育产业规模由 ...

lululemon需要新故事。 1955年的巴黎，克里斯蒂安·迪奥（Christian Dior）正为即将到来的演讲做最后的排练。索邦大学的演讲厅外，被学生与媒体围得水泄不通。他们期待亲眼见证 迪奥 的时装作品——传言中令人"触电般"难以忘怀的设计，真的存在吗？ "The New Look"——这是当时时尚评论界赋予迪奥系列作品的破格赞誉。半个世纪过去，时尚圈早已换了模样。大众时尚依靠科技和产业分工崛起，感谢它们—— 普通人只消花上十分甚至二十分之一的价格，就能买到昔日模特和富家女身上的衣衫。 现代时尚相信"设计应为大规模生产而生"，相信形式需服务于功能，相信衣食住行终将塑造每一个个体。无论时代如何更迭，The New Look 所承载的全球化气象与 积极向上的象征意义从未消散。 因此，我们决定把一档新栏目的名字定为「 New Look」，这会是一档关注时尚行业的访谈，在这里你会看到服饰巨头、运动新秀、奢侈品大牌、设计师新品牌的领 导人物如何思考生意、品牌、中国市场和消费者，洞悉"流行"究竟怎样发生，以及它们最终如何成为经典。 作者 | 李小霞 编辑 | 乔芊 今年是lululemon经典Align瑜伽裤诞生 ...

参与门槛低、高自主性赋予了路跑运动强包容性。正因如此，路跑成为全民健身的热门选择，并通过赛事经济、装备消费等途径带动相关产业 增长。 路跑经济的"账本"正被逐页翻开。近日，国家体育总局体育科学研究所发布了《中国路跑人群消费与赛事经济》研究报告（以下简称"报告"）。这份历时 两年、覆盖超3万份问卷的大样本调研，以参赛人群为研究对象，全面勾勒出当下中国路跑人群的参与情况、消费习惯和赛事经济发展特征。 "报告"最新数据显示，2024年，参加过全马、半马以及短距离等各类路跑赛事跑者的年度直接消费与间接消费统计数据之和为13444元，是不参加任何路 跑赛事的跑者的3.6倍。 背后呈现的，是一个持续扩容的"路跑经济"市场。从赛事报名热潮到装备消费再到异地参赛激活交通、文旅、住宿、餐饮等间接消费，路跑赛事已形 成"体育+文旅"的复合经济链。报告中透露了哪些趋势？现在参加路跑赛事的跑者们都把钱花在哪些地方？他们又通过"异地参赛"激活了多少间接消费？ 赛道越长，账单也越长 从官方数据来看，如今的跑者不止爱跑，参赛也"上头"。 参考中国田径协会在今年3月发布的《2024年中国路跑赛事蓝皮书》，2024年全国全年共举办各级路跑赛事 ...