Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of the recent China-US trade negotiations on various industries, including commodities, metals, and rubber markets. The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism due to the unexpected outcomes of the negotiations and their implications for market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - The China-US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, resulting in lower tariff agreements, which is expected to provide a significant boost to short-term exports and maintain resilience in China's export performance. The direct trade decline between China and the US was only 20%-30%, much lower than the anticipated 70%-80% [2][5][30]. - Despite the positive short-term effects, the medium-term demand outlook remains uncertain, with the US economy projected to face downward pressure in 2025 and doubts about the stabilization of China's domestic demand without additional stimulus measures [5][30]. Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market outlook has been revised from bearish to a more neutral or slightly bullish stance due to improved export resilience and tariff reductions. There are no immediate signs of deterioration in market conditions [4][22]. - The black metal industry is expected to experience a corrective rebound, driven by potential export behaviors between China and the US, although attention should be paid to the impact of China's port throughput and steel exports on the fundamentals [9][10]. Gold Market Analysis - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a negative for the gold market, but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued gold purchases by the Chinese central bank are expected to limit the downside for gold prices, which are projected to find support between $3,150 and $3,200 [6][7]. Currency Implications - A dual strong pattern for both the Renminbi and the US dollar is anticipated in the short term, as the successful tariff negotiations have improved market confidence in the Renminbi's strength [8]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Copper Market**: The long-term bearish outlook for copper remains unchanged, with a downward adjustment in demand growth expectations. The market is expected to transition from a shortage to a slight surplus state [14][16]. - **Rubber Market**: The rubber market is currently weak, particularly in the semi-steel tire segment, with expectations of a short-term rebound but a long-term bearish outlook due to fundamental issues [19][17]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The recent trade negotiations have positively impacted the energy and chemical sectors, enhancing the willingness to hold physical assets [22][23]. Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with a need to monitor the potential impacts of future economic data and geopolitical developments on commodity prices and market stability [21][28]. - The potential for a recession in the US has been reduced due to the positive outcomes of the trade negotiations, but the long-term effects of tariffs and economic policies remain to be seen [30][31]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a complex interplay between trade negotiations, market expectations, and sector-specific dynamics. While there are positive short-term developments, the medium to long-term outlook remains cautious, with various factors influencing demand and pricing across different industries.

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The copper pricing mechanism is shifting from macroeconomic factors to supply-demand fundamentals, with expectations of price fluctuations in 2024 and a potential increase in 2025 due to intensified supply-demand conflicts [1][11]. - Global copper supply is primarily dominated by Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, but growth in copper production is slowing down, with significant investments in exploration declining [2][16]. - Demand for copper is expected to remain robust, driven by sectors such as power infrastructure, electric vehicles, and home appliances, despite some downward pressure from the real estate sector [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Pricing Dynamics - The copper price in 2024 is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic easing and supply disruptions, leading to a volatile market [1][11]. - The second half of 2024 may see a price correction as macroeconomic benefits are absorbed and demand remains subdued [12]. 2. Copper Supply - The global copper mining supply is primarily concentrated in Latin America, with Chile and Peru holding significant reserves [2][16]. - The growth rate of copper mining investments is slowing, indicating a tightening supply trend in the long term [2][16]. - Key mining projects in Africa and Asia may face delays due to geopolitical risks and stricter environmental regulations [2]. 3. Copper Demand - Global refined copper consumption is steadily increasing, with strong demand from the power construction and new energy vehicle sectors [3][12]. - The demand for copper is expected to remain high due to ongoing investments in electric grid upgrades and renewable energy installations [3][12]. - Future demand dynamics will depend on policy developments and the evolution of the industrial chain [3][12]. 4. Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key investment targets due to their growth potential and strong performance in the copper sector [4].

2025年4月30日，中金黄金（600489）股份有限公司(简称：中金黄金)正式发布2024年年度报告及2025 年第一季度报告。2024年全年及2025年一季度，公司紧抓黄金行业战略机遇期，狠抓生产经营，持续深 化改革，主要财务指标实现稳健增长。 2024年，中金黄金面对错综复杂的外部形势和艰巨繁重改革发展任务，始终坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 围绕以核心竞争力提升促高质量发展这一主题，圆满完成年度主要生产任务，经营指标持续增长、资产 质量持续提升、核心竞争力持续巩固、市场形象和市值水平持续向好，实现价值创造力、改革深化效 能、科技创新引领力、企业治理水平、风险防控根基和党建引领作用六个方面持续提升，为公司高质量 发展新征程奠定了坚实基础。 锚定高质量发展目标创新驱动绿色转型 中金黄金始终以科技创新为引擎，推动绿色矿山建设和智能化升级。2024年，公司研发费用7.30亿元， 同比增加0.47亿元，获得省部级或行业协会奖16项，新申请专利157项，其中新申请发明专利38项，获 得授权专利81项，其中授权发明专利22项。同时，公司积极响应"双碳"目标，连续10年披露社会责任报 告(ESG报告)，ESG治理水平持续提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: Positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain negative. After the copper price fell from its high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 24, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4]. - Overall Logic: Trump's tariff remarks are volatile, market sentiment has eased, and the copper price has rebounded to fill the gap. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new macro - level positive support, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level, the start - up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, social inventories are in a seasonal destocking cycle, and aluminum product exports have declined significantly. Attention should be paid to domestic demand support [6]. - Overall Logic: The negative impact of US tariff increases has gradually been released. There are no major contradictions in the aluminum fundamentals. This week, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the gap position above, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [6]. Alumina - Macro: Similar to copper and electrolytic aluminum, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [8]. - Fundamentals: As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 740,000 tons. Due to recent concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, and the spot supply of alumina has tightened [8]. - Overall Logic: The spot price of alumina has stopped falling recently, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. A bearish outlook should be maintained in the medium term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Copper Market**: The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 78,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various copper futures contracts also showed increases. LME copper prices and inventories also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Aluminum Market**: The average price of aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 20,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various aluminum futures contracts increased, and LME aluminum inventories increased [15]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina spot price index was 2,897 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The average prices of alumina in different regions also had small increases [15]. - **Weekly News**: In the first quarter, 11,906 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 91.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming operations after an accident. The aluminum industry companies generally had good performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and business rules of cast aluminum alloy [17]. 3.2 Macro Analysis On April 25, 2025, the Politburo meeting proposed new measures in central government leverage, consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and employment, aiming to promote economic development [19]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC continued to decline. The spread between refined and scrap copper, import profit, and other indicators also showed corresponding trends [25]. - **Futures Market**: The net long positions in COMEX copper increased [28]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, which had an impact on LME copper prices, spreads, and inventories [32]. - **Inventories**: As of April 24, the social copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, achieving eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise to 81.81% this week [36]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum converged. The spreads between different aluminum products and the import profit also showed corresponding changes [42]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, affecting LME aluminum prices, spreads, and net positions of different institutions [44]. - **Weekly Inventories**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod, and the inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME all showed different trends [46]. - **Downstream Start - up**: As of April 24, the overall start - up rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different performance, and the start - up rate is expected to decline slightly this week [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were affected by the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and power coal [53]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic alumina spot price has stopped falling. The prices of alumina in different regions and related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda also showed corresponding trends [56]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of alumina futures remained at a high level. The basis and the relationship between alumina futures prices and other related futures prices also had corresponding changes [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina increased. On the demand side, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [62]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost pressure on alumina enterprises is relatively high. As of April 24, the industry cost was 3,337.48 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was - 445.73 yuan/ton [65].

研究院 新能源&有色组 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 联系人 研究员 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 陈思捷 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 期货研究报告|铜周报 2025-04-27 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 市场存在挺价情绪 铜价预计震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 矿端方面，据 Mysteel 讯，4 月 25 日当周，本周国内矿现货交易氛围保持平稳，市场延 续供需偏紧态势。尽管现货加工费出现显著下滑（可能受 Antamina 矿区生产事故引发 的供应担忧情绪升温影响），但作价比例波动相对有限，主流议价区间仍维持在 92-95% 水平，卖方在价格谈判中持续掌握主动权，作价体系保持高位震荡。周内现货 TC 价格 继续下降至-42.52 美元/吨。 冶炼及进口方面，4 月 25 日当周，市场国产资源 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

华源证券近日发布有色金属大宗金属周报：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 铜：供给端扰动频发，铜价高位运行。本周美铜/伦铜/沪铜分别上涨 0.08%/-0.45%/-0.20%，本周铜价在供给端扰动下冲高回落。供给端，据smm，嘉能可暂停智 利Altonorte冶炼厂运营，并启动不可抗力条款，Altonorte工厂的年产铜约35万吨，受此催化 影响，沪铜一度突破8.3万元/吨。南方铜业旗下SPCC-ILO铜冶炼厂在短暂停产一天后，已快 速恢复至满产状态，铜价回落。需求端，高铜价短期压制下游开工，库存去化，本周铜杆开 工率64.06%，环比降低5.87pct，smm电解铜社会库存33.45万吨，环比降低3.44%，沪铜库存 23.53万吨，环比降低8.21%。旺季逐步来临，铜需求端有支撑，在加工费持续低迷背景下， 若冶炼厂减产现象持续扩散，铜矿端短缺或逐步向金属端传导，铜价有望迎来上行周期，另 一方面重点关注美国对铜加征关税的落地情况。建议关注：紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、 铜陵有色。 铝：库存去化叠加下游需求回升，支撑铝价高位 ...