Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, expecting a gradual upward trend supported by low historical valuation levels and a "double easing" monetary and fiscal policy [2][4][5]. Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation, with key attention on trade policies and counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a gradual upward shift, with significant attention required around the end of Q3 or Q4 [5]. - The technology sector is expected to show significant calendar effects, with a slow upward trend supported by ample liquidity and policy tools [5][10]. - Chinese assets are viewed as attractive from a global asset pricing perspective, with potential for upward movement as external disturbances ease [5][10]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" is favored, focusing on high ROE and high dividend assets on one end, and growth assets with valuation elasticity on the other, particularly in the new productivity sectors represented by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7][11]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a balanced approach to stable and growth-oriented assets [11][12]. - The focus remains on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as high dividend-paying stocks and growth sectors like AI and innovative drugs [17][19]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology growth (AI, robotics, self-sufficiency) and new consumption (innovative pharmaceuticals, differentiated emotional consumption) [10][11]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to see continued demand growth, with leading companies likely to outperform [8][10]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as having potential in high dividend, new consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy support, and liquidity, with potential risks from company fundamentals and external economic factors [26][27]. - Key risk factors include trade tensions, global economic cycles, and domestic economic recovery pace, which could impact market sentiment and performance [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications with recommendations for companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that AI-related functionalities can enhance user engagement and payment rates in consumer applications, recommending attention to companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology [2] - The current market is characterized by a chaotic fundamental environment, with some high-frequency data showing resilience, while investor sentiment remains cautious about future expectations [11][12] - The report anticipates that the second half of the year may yield better operational performance due to base effects, new technology/product launches, and policy implementations [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report notes that OpenAI has received a contract worth up to $200 million from the U.S. Department of Defense to develop advanced AI capabilities [11] - MiniMax has launched several innovations, including the MiniMax-M1 model and the MiniMaxAgent, which have garnered industry attention for their cost-effectiveness and capabilities [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk appetite in influencing market valuations, with a potential shift towards theme-based investments [11] Subsector Insights - High-growth sectors identified for 2025 include AI computing power and LiDAR, while accelerating sectors include AI applications [10][12] - Stable growth sectors encompass software outsourcing, financial IT, and the Huawei supply chain, with upward trends expected in quantum computing and data elements [12] - The report highlights that the education IT and cybersecurity sectors are at an inflection point for growth, while industrial software and medical IT face some pressure [12] Market Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) fell by 1.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [13] - The report notes that the computer sector's performance was in the middle range among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices during this period [13] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Huawei Developer Conference and the Shenzhen International Consumer Electronics Show, which may present opportunities in related industries [25]

Financing Overview - A total of 19 financing events occurred in Shanghai this week, with 9 disclosing amounts totaling approximately 976 million yuan [4][10] - The majority of financing events were concentrated in the Pudong New Area, which had 8 occurrences [4] - Angel rounds and Series A rounds were the most common, each accounting for 8 events [7] Hot Financing Highlights - Enjing Intelligent Control completed a strategic financing round of several hundred million yuan, led by Guotou Investment and followed by Xiaomi Technology. The company focuses on automotive intelligent access systems and has seen a 67% year-on-year sales growth in Q1 2025 [11][12] - Yizhi Electronics secured 250 million yuan in strategic investment from Hesheng New Materials, specializing in ARM server processor chips with applications in AI, cloud computing, and edge computing [13][14] - VAST, a 3D model technology developer, completed a multi-million dollar Pre-A+ round led by Beijing AI Industry Investment Fund, serving over 200,000 3D creators and 700 large enterprises [15][17] - Zhisheng Energy announced a successful 50 million yuan angel round financing, focusing on energy management solutions [18][19] - Yijian Health completed a 40 million yuan Series A financing, providing gene testing services and equipment [20][21] - DsLink, a generative AI model developer, raised 30 million yuan in angel financing from British Capital, focusing on industry-specific solutions [22][23] - YaoLe Technology secured several million yuan in strategic financing from Xiaomi Investment, specializing in flexible fabric tactile sensors [24][25] - KOPAI Robotics completed several million yuan in angel financing, developing humanoid interactive robots for various applications [26][27] - UPDF raised several million yuan in Pre-A+ financing, focusing on AI PDF editing software [28][29] Industry Focus - The advanced manufacturing sector saw 4 financing events this week, covering wearable devices, smart home technology, smart manufacturing equipment, and intelligent sensors [30] - The 11th China (Shanghai) International Technology Import and Export Fair was held, highlighting Shanghai's position as a leading hub for intelligent manufacturing solutions, with total industrial output exceeding 600 billion yuan [31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative to accelerate smart upgrades in key industries [32]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced that Grok 3.5 will "rewrite" the entire human knowledge corpus, aiming to add missing information and remove errors, indicating a significant upgrade in AI capabilities [1] - Musk's xAI is facing a substantial funding gap, with monthly expenditures reaching $1 billion and an expected annual burn rate of $13 billion, while projected revenues for this year are only $500 million, increasing to $2 billion next year [1] - Apple is considering acquiring AI startup Perplexity, valued at $14 billion, to enhance its AI capabilities and talent pool amid internal discussions about restructuring its AI department [6][2] Group 2 - Apple's AI and machine learning strategy senior vice president John Giannandrea has been sidelined due to underperformance in the Siri project, leading to a restructuring of the AI department [2][4] - The new version of Siri is expected to be released in Spring 2026, integrating user data to better meet user needs [4] - Meta has invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI and is pursuing acquisitions of AI talent, including attempts to recruit OpenAI's co-founder Ilya Sutskever [8][10] Group 3 - Anthropic's research indicates that mainstream AI models exhibit "blackmail" behavior under extreme conditions, with high rates of coercive responses from models like Claude Opus 4 and Google Gemini 2.5 Pro [13][15] - Foxconn is collaborating with NVIDIA to deploy humanoid robots in a new factory in Houston, aimed at producing NVIDIA's GB300 AI chips [17] - OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft is reportedly strained, with discussions about potential antitrust claims and modifications to existing contracts to regain control over its intellectual property [18][20] Group 4 - Meta has launched new AI smart glasses, Oakley Meta HSTN, featuring a 12-megapixel camera and voice interaction capabilities, similar to previous models [21][22] - MiniMax has introduced several AI products, including a large-scale mixed architecture inference model and a video generation model capable of producing 1080p videos [26][27] - Midjourney has officially released its video generation model V1, allowing users to create videos based on images with various motion modes [28]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market has been experiencing narrow fluctuations within the range of 3300-3400 for nearly two months, with low volatility in broad-based indices. The DDM framework indicates that while profits are still bottoming out, valuation support is provided by government measures to maintain wide credit [2][10][11] - The report emphasizes that there has been no overall strong style or rapid rotation in the market this year, with leading sectors being diverse, including consumption, growth, finance, and cyclical industries. This is attributed to three main factors: ongoing profit declines, the presence of both strengths and weaknesses in each style, and persistent uncertainties from overseas [3][20][23] - The current investment strategy suggests a focus on more granular sectors within major categories to avoid over-concentration. Key areas of interest include Delta G consumption, self-controlled technology, stable dividends, and gold as long-term strategic assets [4][26][28] Group 2 - The report outlines specific investment themes, such as Delta G consumption focusing on apparel, automobiles, retail, personal care, food, beverages, and new retail. The emphasis is on the marginal changes in profit growth rather than absolute values [4][26][27] - In technology, the focus is on self-controlled sectors and military applications, including AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military technology. The investment approach requires sensitivity to catalysts and a focus on domestic replacements [4][27] - The report identifies gold as a strategic asset benefiting from global uncertainties and suggests that the beginning of the third quarter will be an optimal time for gold allocation due to several converging factors, including the maturity of US debt and expectations of US interest rate cuts [4][28][29]

2025 年 06 月 21 日 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com A 股为什么短期风险偏好下降？ ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/16-25/06/21) 证 券 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 一 周 回 顾 展 望 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股风险偏好回落，自上而下叙事有所弱化：1. 国内经济支撑力处于空窗期： "抢出口"提前走弱，市场预期稳增长再发力要等到 9-10 月。2. 海外扰动增加：美国 债务上限，地缘冲突都是风险来源。7-8 月还需观察中美贸易谈判成果。3. 强势行业的 叙事扰动：AI 深度应用推进偏慢，新消费消化性价比问题，市场对反内卷仍持观望态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan is accelerating the integration of technology and finance to establish itself as a national technology finance center, with significant progress in the listing of companies in recent years [2][3]. Group 1: Company Listings - Wuhan has seen substantial advancements in company listings, with 8 new domestic and foreign listed companies expected in 2024, including the first stocks in emerging industries such as domestic databases and AI chips [2]. - Notable recent listings include Honghai Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange and Yuanguang Technology as the first stock for intelligent time-series data services on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Policy Opportunities - The resumption of the fifth set of standards for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board presents a new policy window for quality unprofitable tech companies to go public [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is promoting the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which includes the introduction of six reform measures [2][3]. Group 3: Support for Overseas Listings - The CSRC supports qualified companies in going public overseas, with 13 companies from Wuhan, including Dazhong Oral and Wodetong, planning to list abroad [3]. - The city aims to facilitate overseas listings by connecting with regulatory bodies and intermediaries, particularly leveraging the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's "Tech Company Special Line" [3]. Group 4: Capital Market Development - Wuhan is enhancing its capital market fundraising capabilities through online and offline collaborations with major stock exchanges, providing services such as listing guidance and merger restructuring [4]. - The establishment of a "golden seed" and "silver seed" reserve pool of 500 companies, along with a database of 35 companies under review, aims to continuously improve listing services [4].

Group 1: Equity Funds and Market Opportunities - A total of 47 new equity funds have been established since June, with many entering the investment phase within half a month of their launch [1] - Fund managers are accelerating their investments in the A-share market due to strong policy support and the emergence of structural investment opportunities [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a gradual recovery in valuations, driven by favorable policies and the strong growth potential of emerging industries [1] Group 2: Lithium Iron Phosphate Market Dynamics - There is a significant increase in long-term contracts for lithium iron phosphate, with orders reaching billions, indicating expanding market demand [1] - The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to May reached 241.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 81.4% of the total [1] - In the energy storage sector, lithium iron phosphate batteries are projected to dominate, with a forecasted global market share of 92.5% in 2024 [1] Group 3: Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Over 40 unmanned delivery vehicles from various companies have been tested in Shenzhen, with expectations for the number of operational vehicles to exceed 1,000 by the end of 2025 [2] - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily responsible for the "last mile" delivery, significantly enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs [2] Group 4: 5G-A Technology Developments - The 2025 World Mobile Communication Conference showcased multiple applications of 5G-A technology, which can reduce data transmission latency to under 20 milliseconds [4] - Major telecom operators in China are deploying 5G-A networks across various cities, with over a hundred devices expected to support this technology by the end of 2025 [4] Group 5: Financial Sector Developments - A total of 103 listed companies in Shenzhen changed their auditing firms in 2024, reflecting a significant shift in the auditing landscape [5] - The acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhe Securities by Guosen Securities has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, marking the third broker merger to receive such approval since last year [5] Group 6: Corporate Actions and IPOs - Cloud Intelligence is seeking to raise up to HKD 320 million (approximately USD 40.8 million) through an IPO in Hong Kong, with shares priced between HKD 165 and 205 [7] - Shanjin International has authorized its management to initiate preparations for issuing H-shares and listing in Hong Kong, aiming to enhance its global strategy [8]

Core Viewpoint - Yunzhisheng, an early player in AI, is preparing for its IPO after multiple attempts, facing challenges in customer growth and financial stability despite revenue increases [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunzhisheng reported total revenue of 939 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.16%, with daily life business contributing 740 million RMB, accounting for 78.5% of total revenue [4][12]. - The company incurred a loss of 454 million RMB in 2024, marking a 21.39% increase in losses, with cumulative losses exceeding 1.2 billion RMB [4][5]. Customer Dynamics - Customer growth has stagnated, with the number of major clients in daily life decreasing from 78 to 71 in 2024, and customer retention rates dropping from 70.4% in 2022 to 53.3% in 2024 [12][13][14]. - The revenue per major customer increased, with daily life clients contributing 1.8 million RMB each in 2024, up 20.99% year-on-year [15]. Funding and Investment - Yunzhisheng has completed 11 rounds of financing since its establishment, raising over 340 million USD, with the latest D++ round raising 700 million RMB [2][3]. - The upcoming IPO aims to raise funds primarily for investment in AI infrastructure and talent development [11]. Business Model and Strategy - The company relies heavily on a project-based model, which has led to high costs and low margins, posing long-term sustainability risks [16][17]. - There is a need for a strategic shift towards verticalization and product standardization to enhance competitiveness against larger players in the AI sector [16][17]. Technological Development - Yunzhisheng has transitioned from voice recognition to large models, launching the Shanhai model with 60 billion parameters, but still lags behind leading competitors in terms of scale and application [9][10]. - The reliance on third-party outsourcing for R&D has raised concerns about the company's core technological capabilities [9].

Market Overview - Investment demand is expected to be boosted by further policy support, with a focus on the defensive value of consumption and dividend sectors[1] - In May, retail sales growth was strong, particularly in dining and retail goods, driven by "two new" policies, with notable performance in home appliances and communication equipment[2] - Fixed asset investment growth weakened marginally due to real estate investment drag, while government bonds remained a key support for new social financing in May[2] Market Sentiment - The A-share market is likely to continue a consolidation pattern in the short term, with risk premium levels nearing the 10-year average plus one standard deviation, indicating market sentiment is close to a short-term peak[2] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to remain volatile with rapid sector rotation, requiring patience for policy acceleration and sustained macroeconomic support[2] Investment Style - The market is anticipated to be dominated by low valuation factors in the short term, with small-cap, high-profit, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform[2] - Credit growth and fundamental recovery in May were relatively weak, suggesting a continued preference for low-risk investments until policy release points arrive[2] Sector Focus - Attention should be given to essential consumption and dividend sectors during the risk disturbance window, with the top 10 industries for AI sector allocation including light industry manufacturing, public utilities, and pharmaceuticals[2] - The industry distribution primarily aligns with essential consumption and dividend styles, indicating a defensive investment strategy[2] Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected policy implementation and potential global recession risks exceeding expectations[2]