Macro Policy - The macro policy focus for the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of analyzing major changes and key indicators to prepare policies effectively [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize more proactive fiscal policies, including issuing long-term special bonds and local government bonds to stimulate economic activity [3] Expanding Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to boost investment and consumption, enhance project management, and stimulate private investment [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to consolidate the industrial economy and promote consumer goods supply and demand compatibility [4] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance is focused on improving policies to support consumption in sectors like elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [5] - There will be a push for the healthy development of duty-free retail businesses and coordination between fiscal and financial policies to meet consumer demand [5] Employment and Livelihood - Employment remains a priority, with plans to expand job opportunities in emerging sectors such as digital economy and green economy [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to ensure food security and stabilize employment in rural areas while achieving a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of maintaining safety in key industries and enhancing disaster prevention measures [7]

Industry Overview Upstream - Egg prices in the agricultural sector have declined significantly year-on-year [2] - Glass prices in the black sector have dropped [2] Midstream - The operating rate of PTA in the chemical industry has recently decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three-year low [4] - The box office of summer movies has increased [4] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of anti-involution policies. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative to photovoltaic enterprises, including adhering to fair competition, controlling production capacity expansion, focusing on technological innovation, and strengthening self-discipline [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the update of parenting policies. The State Council General Office has issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, and from the fall semester of 2025, the tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens will be waived [1] Other Information Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry has decreased to 45.97 BP, and that of the real estate industry has decreased to 84.61 BP [47] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various industries have different changes. For example, the spot price of eggs in the agricultural sector has increased by 7.35%, while the spot price of glass in the black sector has decreased by 3.86% [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities. It provides market trends, fundamental analysis, and operation suggestions for each sector, highlighting the impact of macro - events, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes on market prices. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, global equity markets heated up, with A - shares rising. The four major stock index futures contracts all increased, and the basis of the main contracts was seasonally repaired. With the release of policies and the results of Sino - US negotiations, it is advisable to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6300 and hold a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with a narrow - range shock, mostly rising. Although the central bank's open - market operations turned to net withdrawal, the inter - bank market funds remained abundant. It is expected that treasury bond futures will oscillate upward in early August, and it is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to July economic data [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The uncertainty of US economic and trade policies has increased market concerns. Gold rebounded after hitting a low, and silver also rose. In August, trade agreements may put pressure on prices, but the deterioration of US economic data in July boosts the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold should be held long above $3300, and silver should be bought at low levels [9][11][12]. Shipping Futures - **Container Shipping Futures**: The container shipping futures are in a stage of slow decline in spot prices and lack of strong fundamental drivers. The 10 - contract price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a bottom around 1250 points. It is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price rose, but the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The macro - level has no clear bullish drivers, and the supply - demand relationship is weak during the off - season. Copper prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77000 - 79000 [16][18][20]. - **Alumina**: The spot price remained stable, and the warehouse receipt volume increased. The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term, with the main contract running in the range of 3000 - 3400 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased slightly, and the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is strong. Affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [22][24][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price rose, and the terminal consumption in the off - season was weak, with the social inventory close to full capacity. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract referring to 19200 - 20200 [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [27][29][31]. - **Tin**: The spot price rose, and the trading was light. The supply of tin ore is tense, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore in August, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [31][32][34]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was stable. The supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 126000 [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable, and the market purchasing was weak. Affected by policies and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [37][38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price fell slightly, and the market was affected by news. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously [41][42][44]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price rose, and the cost increased while the profit of steel mills improved. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that steel prices will be supported, and it is advisable to hold long positions [46][47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price increased, and the futures price also rose. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the price is expected to follow steel prices. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price rebounded after hitting a low, and the spot price increased. The supply is tight, and the demand is stable. It is expected that the price will rise, and it is advisable to go long on dips and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [52][53][55]. - **Coke**: The futures price rose strongly, and the fifth - round price increase of coke was implemented. The supply is difficult to increase, and the demand is supported. There is an expectation of a sixth - round price increase, and it is advisable to go long on dips and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [56][57][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price of rapeseed meal increased. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses prices, but concerns about imports support the domestic soybean meal spot. It is advisable to hold long positions in the 2601 contract of soybean meal [60][61][62]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price fluctuated at a low level, and the supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and it is not advisable to blindly short the far - month 01 contract [63][64]. - **Corn**: The spot price fell, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the price is expected to decline, with a slow decline in the short term [65][66][67]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is also at the bottom. The global sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply is expected to be marginally loose. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [68].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant debt crisis facing the U.S. government, amounting to $36 trillion, and how the Trump administration's attempts to address it have led to a series of failures and challenges for the global economy [1][8]. Group 1: Government Response - The Trump administration initially aimed to alleviate the debt crisis through austerity measures and increased tariffs to boost revenue and protect domestic manufacturing [1]. - The establishment of the "Government Efficiency Committee" faced substantial opposition, making it difficult to cut military spending or social welfare programs, leading to minimal efficiency gains [3]. - The tariff strategy against China resulted in retaliatory measures, exacerbating trade deficits and increasing consumer prices in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Interaction - The Trump administration sought to lower interest rates to reduce debt repayment burdens, estimating that a 1% rate cut could save $360 billion annually in interest payments [4]. - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, citing ongoing inflation concerns, which led to further frustration from the administration [4][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The government resorted to borrowing to manage its debt, passing the "Too Big to Fail Act," which acknowledged the inability to resolve the debt crisis without incurring new debt [5]. - Tax cuts implemented by the administration, reducing corporate tax rates from 21% to 15%, are projected to decrease annual tax revenue by $500 billion, worsening the debt situation [5][6]. Group 4: Economic Consequences - The U.S. is trapped in a vicious cycle where borrowing to pay off debt leads to rising interest payments, which in turn limits funding for essential services like education and healthcare [6]. - The ongoing debt crisis poses a risk to the international standing of the U.S. dollar, with potential long-term implications for the U.S. economy [6][8]. Group 5: Global Economic Impact - In response to the U.S. actions, China has adopted flexible strategies, such as relocating production to Southeast Asia and enhancing cooperation with other countries to mitigate risks [6]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is facing unprecedented economic challenges, with the current debt management strategies only providing temporary relief without addressing the underlying issues [8].

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, lower than the previous month's 50.5% but similar to the same period last year's 50.2% [1] - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 showing a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of exports and imports were 5.9% and 1.1% respectively, with exports accelerating and imports turning positive [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - In July 2025, the national futures market volume was 1.059 billion lots, with a turnover of 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year-on-year respectively [2] - In H1 2025, the number of new futures customers in the market was 410,000, a 2.5% increase from the same period last year. By the end of June 2025, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a record high [2] - The China Futures Association is seeking public comments on the "Management Rules for Unfair Competition in Futures Company Brokerage Business" [2] 2.2 Metals - As the Fed's rate cut expectations rise, gold has regained institutional favor. Citi raised its three - month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce [4] - On August 4, copper inventory reached a two - month high, zinc inventory hit an 18 - month low, and nickel inventory reached a four - year high [5] - Trump excluded refined copper from the 50% tariff list, leading to a surge in LME copper inventory [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [7] - Brazilian iron ore exports in H1 2025 were 185.9 million tons, a 3.8% increase year - on - year [7] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced its procurement prices for the first half of August, with increases for various products [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The NDRC and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on improving the natural gas pipeline transportation price mechanism [9] - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a photovoltaic industry initiative to resist unfair competition [9] - Non - OPEC oil supply growth is expected to peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs allocated 455 million yuan for agricultural disaster relief [12] - The State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves approved the launch of the minimum purchase price plan for wheat in Jiangsu [12] - Japan plans to shift its rice policy from production suppression to production increase in fiscal year 2027 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 5, the central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Key News - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumer loan and service industry business loan discount policies [15] - Seven departments including the central bank issued a guidance on financial support for new industrialization [15] - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors required enterprises to disclose semi - annual reports by August 31 [15] - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of high - risk debt regions, and Ningxia and Jilin are also working on exiting [16] - In the past seven months, the top 100 real estate developers' land acquisition amount increased by over 30% year - on - year [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - After the short - term shock of VAT resumption, the bond market showed a narrow - range and slightly bullish trend [19] - The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, and the money market interest rates are likely to stay at low levels [24] - European and US bond yields showed mixed trends [22] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1876 on August 5, down 110 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index rose 0.01% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income recommends focusing on the participation value of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of some regional city and rural commercial banks [24] - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the convertible bond market has the potential to break through, and the low - price convertible bond strategy space has narrowed [24] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects the central bank to continue to support the money market in August [24] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 6, 179 bonds will be listed, 146 bonds will be issued, 104 bonds will be paid, and 108 bonds will pay principal and interest [27] 4. Stock Market Key News - The regulatory authorities are cracking down on third - party companies that provide substantial fraud services for listed companies [28] - On August 5, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year [29] - The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [29] - Chinese assets are attracting foreign capital inflows, and the number of QFII - held stocks and their market value have increased [29] - In July, the number of private securities funds filed for registration reached a new high in nearly 27 months [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the United States and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose higher tariffs on Indian imports as a response to India's actions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's substantial purchases of Russian oil, which he claims are being resold for profit [1]. - The U.S. intended to impose a 25% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods starting August 1, but the implementation was delayed to August 7 [1]. - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian officials stated that their stance on purchasing Russian oil remains unchanged, citing long-term contracts as a reason for continued imports [2]. Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India is the third-largest oil importer globally, with Russia supplying approximately 35% of its total oil needs [3]. - Following the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, India's daily imports of Russian oil surged from 68,000 barrels in January 2022 to a peak of 215,000 barrels in May 2023 [3]. - India's continued import of Russian oil is seen as a response to U.S. tariff threats and a reflection of its strategic autonomy in foreign policy [4]. Group 3: Structural Issues in U.S.-India Relations - The article highlights a "structural rift" in U.S.-India relations, exacerbated by the U.S. push for India to open its agricultural market, which India has resisted due to domestic economic concerns [4]. - The relationship has shifted from one of strategic partnership to one marked by tension and mistrust, with Trump expressing indifference to India's economic stability [3][4]. - The article suggests that India's long-standing position of strategic autonomy in foreign policy is validated by the current tensions with the U.S. [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications of U.S. Tariff Policies - The article critiques the U.S. government's tariff policies as misguided, arguing that they could lead to greater isolation for the U.S. in the global trade system [6]. - It notes that traditional allies like Japan and the EU have also faced pressure from the U.S. to accept unfavorable trade agreements, highlighting a trend of increasing U.S. unilateralism [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: US President warns of tariff hikes on India and the EU; US non - manufacturing PMI drops from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, below the expected 51.5, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policies like childcare subsidies may boost consumption, and a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce reduces short - term tariff uncertainties. Domestic risk appetite rises due to Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation [2]. - Asset recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at short - term highs, with cautious short - term long positions. Bonds may oscillate and correct at short - term highs, suggesting cautious observation. For commodities, black metals may see increased short - term volatility, with cautious short - term long positions; non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, suggesting cautious observation; energy and chemicals may oscillate, with cautious observation; precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs, with cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - manufacturing PMI decline and tariff hike warnings cool global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI decline shows economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks may oscillate strongly at short - term highs, bonds may oscillate and correct, black metals may have increased volatility, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate, and precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors like communication, banking, insurance, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises. China's July manufacturing PMI decline indicates economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. Focus on Sino - US trade talks and domestic policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Tuesday sees a divergence in precious metals. The sharp drop in US non - farm payrolls data increases the Fed's rate - cut probability, and the rebound of core PCE inflation in June makes the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. The US dollar index weakens, and the stock market falls. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short term, with attention to inflation and employment data [4]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the steel spot and futures markets, driven by coal safety supervision. Real - world demand is weak, with an increase in steel inventory and a decrease in apparent consumption. Supply may be restricted by phased production cuts. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Iron ore**: Tuesday sees a slight rebound in iron ore prices, driven by the overall rebound of the ferrous sector. Iron - water production is at a high level but has declined for two consecutive weeks and may continue to fall. Supply shows a decrease in global shipments but an increase in arrivals. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Glass**: Tuesday sees the glass futures contract oscillating. Supply shows a slight increase in daily melting volume and capacity utilization, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate sector is weak, but there is a slight improvement. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, driven by the expected contraction of coal supply. The prices of manganese ore are loosening, and the cost support is strong. The production of silicon iron is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. Iron alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Soda ash**: Tuesday sees the soda ash futures contract oscillating. Supply is in an over - supply pattern despite a recent decline in production. Demand is weak, and there are concerns about capacity exit, which support the bottom price. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations are rising. Although the EU and the US are close to a trade agreement, Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high, which may affect future imports. Copper prices have fallen [9]. - **Aluminum**: Tuesday sees an increase in aluminum prices due to a positive commodity market. However, the fundamentals are weakening, with an increase in domestic and LME inventories. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some recycling plants. Demand is weak in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of tin mines in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased significantly. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Tuesday sees a 2.39% decline in the lithium carbonate futures contract. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are falling. Market concerns about mine closures may cause short - term volatility. Cautious observation is recommended [9]. - **Industrial silicon**: Tuesday sees a 1.37% increase in the industrial silicon futures contract. Production is increasing slightly. The rise of coking coal prices may drive industrial silicon prices. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Tuesday sees a 3.88% increase in the polysilicon futures contract. The prices of related products are stable. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Russia may consider a cease - fire to avoid secondary sanctions. Trump's threat to blacklist Russia's "shadow fleet" and tariff hikes on India increase oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. Factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but demand is weak. Asphalt prices will continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PX**: PTA plant overhauls reduce PX demand. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, but the PXN spread has declined. PX prices will oscillate [12]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fall to around 4600. Processing fees are low, and large - scale plant overhauls offset new production capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and PTA prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase as gas - based plants return. Downstream demand is weak, and ethylene glycol prices will oscillate [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by the weakening of the sector, short - fiber prices fall. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are accumulating. Short - fiber prices may continue to be shorted in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and industrial products correct. Although coal prices support methanol, supply - demand pressure exists. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and prices return to fundamentals. Crude oil prices support PP, but supply is strong and demand is weak. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **LLDPE**: The emotional premium fades. Supply increases as plants restart, and demand is weak. Low inventories and high crude oil prices support LLDPE. LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract closes down 0.40%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 69%, and attention should be paid to the extreme high - temperature risk in the Midwest later this week [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: High arrivals and high operation rates of domestic oil mills slow down the inventory - building of soybean meal. Trade basis quotes decline, but actual sales are average [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The fast pace of soybean purchases for the fourth quarter in China increases the low - valuation buying of soybean meal and soybean oil. The inverted soybean - palm oil spread makes soybean oil more cost - effective. Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on soybean oil and short on palm oil. Rapeseed oil has high port inventories and slow circulation [17]. - **Palm oil**: Since July, palm oil production and inventory pressure in the producing areas are high, and exports are weak. The market expects an increase in inventory in the August MPOB report. Palm oil's recent rebound is driven by funds and technology, but its sustainability is questionable [18]. - **Corn**: Corn prices in the national market fall, and spot trading is light. The supply - demand balance of corn in August is weak. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn market [18]. - **Pigs**: Farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices increases the difficulty of procurement for slaughterhouses. However, the off - season demand is weak, and there may be pressure on pig prices due to increased supply [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: The price trend is volatile, and it has not yet broken out of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly. The market remains in a state of high - risk preference, where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13][15][16]. - US Dollar Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17][20][21]. - US Stock Index Futures: Whether the economic downward pressure intensifies still needs more data verification. Attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [22][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: August is a favorable period for the bond market. It is recommended to look for short - term opportunities to narrow the spread between T09 - 12 contracts when the bond market sentiment warms up [25][26][27]. - Agricultural Products (Beans Meal): The internal strength and external weakness will continue. The operating center of beans meal will rise [28][30][31]. - Agricultural Products (Edible Oils): For palm oil, do not short. Consider gradually laying out long positions in the 01 contract when the price pulls back to 8800 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, it is recommended to choose the 01 contract for long positions [32][33][34]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. There may be a rebound before a large number of new cotton hits the market [35][37][38]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The upward movement of the price difference between rice and flour is expected to be weak [39][40]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): It is expected that the coal price will rise to around 670 yuan (the long - term agreement price) and fluctuate. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand [41][42]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is difficult to fall sharply in the short term. Pay attention to the actual implementation of production restrictions in mid - August [42][43]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): In the medium to long term, corn is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in new crops [44]. - Black Metals (Rebar/HRC): The short - term market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to operate with a light position [45][46][47]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): In the short term, it will fluctuate. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation, and the market may return to fundamentals [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. Pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [50][52][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): In the short term, the price may operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [55][56][57]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): Consider gradually stopping losses on short positions. Wait for an opportunity to go long after the macro - sentiment is released [58][59]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. In the medium term, look for opportunities to short at high prices [60][61][62]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Wait and see before the risk event is resolved. Stop profiting from the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Look for opportunities to buy at low prices and manage positions well. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [65][66]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): On a single - side basis, it is recommended to wait and see. Hold low - level speculative long positions with good position management. Pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [70][71]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It will fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Pay attention to the relevant meeting in Beijing tomorrow. The price has strong support in the short term [74][75][76]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): Pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the position of narrowing the styrene - pure benzene price difference [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The market is expected to decline following the commodity market [81][82]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The market will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): It will adjust in the short - term [85][86]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): It will adjust in the short - term [87][88][89]. Core Viewpoints - The US economic data is weak, with the ISM non - manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations. There are signs of stagflation, and the inflation pressure will increase after the implementation of tariffs. The market risk preference has weakened [11][17][20]. - China's seven - department policy on financial support for new - type industrialization and the free pre - school education policy have boosted the stock market, and the market has strong expectations for policies [13][14][15]. - The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market needs to be closely monitored. In early August, the fundamentals and capital situation are favorable for the bond market [25]. - For commodities, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of some agricultural products is affected by weather and planting conditions, and the supply of some non - ferrous metals is affected by production capacity and inventory [35][50][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and announced tariff increases, which raised market risk aversion. The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, showing stagflation risks. The gold price fluctuated and was waiting for a breakthrough [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Seven departments issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization, and the State Council announced free pre - school education. The stock market was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this year. The market priced in policy expectations boldly and remained in a high - risk - preference state [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the economic downward pressure increased. The market risk preference weakened, and the US dollar index fluctuated [17][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of four - week Treasury bonds. The weakening of the service PMI has increased market concerns, and the US stock market is expected to continue to pull back [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market was dull. If it becomes insensitive to the stock market rise, the bond market can be more optimistic in the short term [25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Beans Meal) - The far - month basis trading volume of beans meal increased. The cost of imported soybeans supported the futures price, and the market was worried about the future supply of imported soybeans [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils) - The supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia may decrease by 20% in the next five years, which has increased market concerns. The export of soybean oil from China has increased, and the price has risen [32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume in the 2025/26 year will change little. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, and the excellent rate is stable. The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited [35][37][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the loss of enterprises in North China is expected to expand [39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising steadily. The price is expected to rise to around 670 yuan and fluctuate, and the daily consumption will reach an inflection point in mid - to late August [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Onslow project's iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate, and the port inventory is expected to decline in the next 1 - 2 weeks [42][43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic. In the long - term, corn is expected to decline [44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car sales forecast has been raised, and the steel price has rebounded. The short - term market is volatile [45][46][47]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Luliang is oscillating. The supply of coal and coke is gradually recovering, and the market will oscillate in the short term [48][49]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mitsubishi may cut its copper smelting business, and Codelco's mine has an accident. The market is worried about the US recession, and the copper price may be under pressure [50][51][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in June was 95.4%. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton [54][55][57]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Tongwei passed the industrial silicon measurement audit. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon will also rise, and the inventory may decrease [58]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price is weakening, but the nickel price is difficult to fall deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [60][61][62]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - POSCO plans to acquire lithium assets. The demand for lithium carbonate is growing, but the supply is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved [63][64]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. Anhui's environmental protection measures affected the production of recycled lead. The short - term bottom of the lead price was established, but the downward trend has not been reversed [65][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreased. Glencore and Western Mining's zinc production increased. The supply of zinc is high, and the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate, and there is a risk of a short - term upward movement from the external market [67][68][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price was 72.38 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume did not increase significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate around 73 yuan/ton [72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The government issued agricultural disaster - prevention measures. The urea price rose slightly, and the market was affected by the India tender and export policy expectations [74][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of caprolactam was stable. The styrene market fluctuated slightly, and the inventory was expected to increase in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the styrene - pure benzene spread [77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The market was affected by weak fundamentals and the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment [81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rose. The market was affected by the rise of coking coal prices and will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly stronger. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply was expected to increase. The price will adjust in the short term [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price weakened, and the trading improved slightly. The market was affected by the downstream off - season and followed the crude oil price. It will adjust in the short term [87][88][89].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic focus of various Chinese government departments on economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing macroeconomic policies, fiscal measures, and the importance of expanding domestic demand to drive economic growth. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The key phrase for macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is "sustained efforts and timely enhancements" [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for solid preparations for policies focusing on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [2][3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments [3] - There will be an acceleration in the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume [3] - The Ministry aims to improve the microeconomic cycle through various fiscal and tax policies, supporting traditional industries and emerging sectors [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth [3] - The focus will be on enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy measures and improving the efficiency of fund utilization [3] Group 4: Expanding Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as a primary growth driver [4] - The NDRC plans to enhance investment and consumption, stimulate private investment, and support new consumption models [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement strategies to consolidate the industrial economy and promote consumer goods supply and demand compatibility [4] Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - Ensuring social welfare is a priority for the second half of the year, with a focus on employment policies [6][7] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will implement measures to expand job opportunities in key sectors, including the digital and green economies [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, ensuring food security and stability in rural areas [7]

记者从省财政厅获悉，8月4日，财政部下达我省农业防灾减灾和水利救灾资金13150万元。其中，农业 防灾减灾资金6330万元、水利救灾资金6820万元，支持清洗维修机井，灌溉设备维护和抗旱水源工程建 设等。 据悉，财政部近日会同农业农村部、水利部下达中央财政农业防灾减灾和水利救灾资金10.15亿元，支 持受灾地区积极应对洪涝、干旱等灾害影响，加快恢复农业生产。（记者 曾鸣） 责任编辑： 何山 近期，省财政已累计下达资金2.6亿元，将进一步强化资金保障，督促市县加强抗旱保秋资金拨付使用 管理，严禁挤占挪用，为坚决扛稳扛牢粮食安全重任奠定基础。 省财政按照"特事特办、急事急办"原则，当天将资金全部下达市县，并专项调度现金，以最快速度确保 资金第一时间发挥效益。 记者获悉，为支持抗旱增收，省财政千方百计筹措资金，于7月中旬下达3000万元抗旱资金，8月1日又 紧急预拨资金1亿元支持市县开展秋粮"一喷多促"，支持玉米、大豆等秋粮作物混合喷施叶面肥、抗逆 剂、调节剂、杀菌杀虫剂等，全力支持各地开展抗旱保秋工作。 ...