东吴证券认为，周二，虽然指数方面保持红盘，但大部分个股出现了调整，领先指数整体震荡走低，本 轮调整目前看为连续上涨后的良性调整，大部分品种的回调幅度较小，综合近期成交量的有效放大来 看，在上证指数3900点左右平台筹码正在进行有序交换，前期观望资金正在进行入场的动作，A股市场 人气处于逐渐复苏的状态。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 财信证券认为，周二（12月23日），A股大盘冲高回落，个股跌多涨少。指数层面维持着震荡反弹趋 势，不过市场分化特征仍较明显，当日"二八"分化行情主要缘于前期强势题材商业航天和消费板块有所 走弱，导致市场短线情绪受到一定影响，资金选择中大盘股进行承接。因此短期内，大盘或维持震荡反 弹势头，不过在全市场成交额暂未稳定在2万亿元以上的情况下，仍以板块轮动思维参与市场，把握好 结构性机会。展望后续，随着11月份经济数据公布以及海外三大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市 场影响消退，流动性及风险偏好对市场影响将增加，叠加国内政策利好预期，市场有望逐步演绎"春季 躁动"行情，指数放量突破均线将是观察"春季躁动"行情开启的关键信号。 中原证券认为，周二，A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行。盘中电池、能源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural transformation from "urban investment - real estate" to "industry - consumption" drive, with changes in core economic contradictions, transmission mechanisms, and cycle laws, and some analysis paradigms need optimization. The importance of fiscal policy is increasing, and more attention is paid to industry analysis on the supply side, while the demand side is shifting from investment - driven to consumption - driven. The old economy, though no longer the main economic engine, can still provide growth elasticity if it stabilizes marginally [29]. - Some investors' concerns about banks' long - term bond - holding capacity may be excessive. In the short term, the ultra - long - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, but in the long run, upward adjustment may face resistance [29]. - Near the end of the year, wealth management may face a certain pressure to return to the balance sheet, but the demand for credit bonds may remain relatively stable. Credit bond yields may fluctuate with interest - rate bonds, and there are trading opportunities in high - quality central - state - owned enterprise real estate bonds [30]. - In 2026, the stock market's upward momentum may shift from single - valuation - driven to "profit + valuation" double - driven. The overall performance of listed companies is expected to improve, and the market may attract more new funds [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, social financing increased by 24885 billion yuan, up from 8161 billion yuan last year. M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but down from 12.7% in the same period last year; M1 increased by 4.9%, down from 6.2% in the previous month but up from - 0.7% in the same period last year; M2 increased by 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month but up from 7.1% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions reached 3900 billion yuan, up from 2200 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800 billion yuan in the same period last year. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month but up from - 2.5% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to strengthen risk prevention due to unstable market factors and volatile precious - metal prices. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, daily price limits, and margin requirements for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, and restricted the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures contracts to strengthen market risk management [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 24, international gold prices hit a record high, breaking through $4500 per ounce, driven by the escalating situation in Venezuela and expectations of further interest - rate cuts in the US next year. Spot platinum exceeded $2300 per ounce, and spot silver reached a historical high of $71.58 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices hit a record high, breaking through $12000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 37% this year, due to mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies. Domestic gold - jewelry prices also rose, with some brands' pure - gold jewelry prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [5]. - The tin industry association called for rationality as tin prices deviated from fundamentals. The lithium industry's Q3 performance improved, with rising lithium carbonate futures prices in November. Market inventory decreased, and demand from new - energy vehicles and energy storage was strong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, domestic steel prices fluctuated narrowly, with a significant decline in crude steel production and high social inventory, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In December, prices continued to fluctuate narrowly due to multiple factors [9]. - China's first million - ton near - zero - carbon steel production line in Zhanjiang was fully connected, using hydrogen metallurgy and electric smelting technology, reducing carbon emissions by 50% - 80% compared with traditional processes [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 23, US oil prices rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers. As of December 16, crude - oil speculators increased their net short positions in WTI [10][11]. - Serbia extended its natural gas supply agreement with Russia until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply. Russia attacked Ukrainian oil and gas exploration facilities [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the pig inventory in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6% year - on - year [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan as 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders on December 26 [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their core businesses, enhance core competitiveness, and promote innovation and reform. Premier Li Qiang called on central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain stability, and technological self - reliance [15]. - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed that local governments adjust real - estate policies, and promote the construction of a new real - estate development model, including project - company system, lead - bank system, and spot - housing sales system [16]. - The US FCC included foreign - made drones and components in the "unreliable suppliers list," and China firmly opposed this. The RMB exchange rate strengthened recently, driven by a weakening US dollar and year - end settlement demand [17]. - In 2025, local - government debt issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and local governments plan to issue more bonds in Q1 2026, with an expected scale of over 1 trillion yuan, to support economic growth [18]. - The "AI bond - issuance wave" pushed US corporate bond issuance close to the historical record, with AI - related borrowing accounting for about 30% of US investment - grade bond net issuance [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with 30 - year treasury - bond futures rising nearly 1%. Interest - rate bond yields generally declined, and the inter - bank market funds were abundant. Some corporate bonds, such as those of Vanke, fluctuated, and convertible - bond indexes declined [24][25]. - Most money - market interest rates declined, and the yields of European bonds decreased, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 95 points to 7.0287, and the RMB central parity rate rose 49 points to 7.0523. The US dollar index fell 0.37%, and most non - US currencies rose [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.41%. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine sectors strengthened, while tourism stocks declined. Three new stocks had significant gains [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29%. Gold and wind - power stocks led the rise, while technology stocks were mostly weak. Some new stocks had large price fluctuations [33]. - The new - issue scale of equity funds exceeded 400 billion shares this year, setting a new record. Many public - fund institutions held 2026 strategy meetings to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, consumption, and innovative drugs [33][34].

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on December 23, opening at $4,431.70 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,497.86, a low of $4,428.08, and closing at $4,458.46 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% for Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations of 3.2% [3] - Household spending was the main catalyst for economic growth, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP, while strong international demand for U.S. products and services added 0.9 percentage points, and public sector spending contributed 0.4 percentage points [3] - Despite concerns about an economic slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, indicating a strong core of the U.S. economy as the year ends [3] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 116.8 and the Expectations Index remaining steady at 70.7, indicating potential recession signals as it has been below 80 for 11 consecutive months [4] - Four out of five components of the overall index declined, with consumers expressing concerns primarily about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and political issues [4] Investment Insights - Despite the strong GDP growth, concerns remain regarding stagnation in actual business fixed investment, which grew only 1.0%, and a decline in residential investment, leading to a slight contraction in overall private investment [5] - The core indicator of domestic demand, actual private final sales to domestic purchasers, grew by 3.0%, consistent with Q2 growth [5] - The rise in software costs by 5.6% due to accelerated AI adoption has contributed to a 5.1% increase in investment goods prices [5] Economic Commentary - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested revisiting the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target once inflation returns to that level, proposing a range of 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% instead [6] - President Trump praised the GDP data but expressed concerns that good news could lead to market stagnation due to fears of immediate interest rate hikes [7] - The National Economic Council Director highlighted the strong GDP growth as a result of Trump's trade policies and AI investments, predicting a rebound in job growth [7] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed special operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean, indicating potential military actions in the region, particularly against Venezuela [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 1,064.56 tons [8] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 13.3%, with an 86.7% chance of maintaining current rates [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they are trending upwards. - For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested as they are rebounding and rising [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,890 | 980 | 1.04 | 13.88 | - 7.12 | 24.11 | - 0.57 | | Aluminum | 22,160 | 35 | 0.16 | 20.94 | - 4.45 | 30.18 | - 1.25 | | Zinc | 23,105 | 90 | 0.39 | 13.38 | - 0.06 | 9.31 | 0.25 | | Lead | 17,050 | 85 | 0.50 | 4.46 | - 0.46 | 5.81 | - 0.15 | | Nickel | 125,360 | 3,080 | 2.52 | 38.70 | 17.24 | 13.45 | 2.18 | | Tin | 336,110 | - 5,570 | - 1.63 | 22.86 | - 1.65 | 6.12 | 0.47 | | Alumina | 2,553 | 22 | 0.87 | 14.66 | 2.42 | 21.74 | - 0.38 | | Gold | 1,012.58 | 4.22 | 0.42 | 27.64 | - 0.24 | 19.99 | - 0.24 | | Silver | 16,961 | 674 | 4.14 | 123.02 | - 47.46 | 34.05 | - 0.09 | | Lithium Carbonate | 118,600 | 6,260 | 5.57 | 1.79 | - 0.89 | 3.49 | 0.09 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,735 | 115 | 1.33 | 3.86 | 2.10 | 8.93 | - 0.19 | | Polysilicon | 59,125 | - 655 | - 1.10 | 2.52 | - 0.82 | 2.89 | - 0.30 | | Rebar | 3,115 | - 19 | - 0.61 | 84.93 | 0.69 | 158.00 | - 1.19 | | Iron Ore | 787.50 | - 5.00 | - 0.63 | 0.64 | - 0.38 | 7.37 | - 0.04 | | Manganese Silicon | 5,804 | - 14 | - 0.24 | 1.73 | - 0.35 | 3.09 | - 0.27 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,520 | 20 | 0.36 | 4.38 | - 4.06 | 3.24 | - 0.28 | | Glass | 979 | 3 | 0.31 | 2.75 | - 0.88 | 4.25 | - 0.05 | [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are presented, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option varieties are provided, which are derived from the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are given for various option varieties [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility seller option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Silver**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Series**: - **Rebar**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Manganese Silicon**: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

首席点评： 贵金属续创新高，新能源延续强势 总书记对央企强调，充分认识职责使命，更好服务党和国家工作大局。全国住房城乡建设工作会议： 2026 年着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给。北京发放国内首批 L3 级高速公路自 动驾驶车辆专用号牌。美国三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3% 创两年最快增速，核心 PCE 增 2.9% ； 10 月 耐用品订单环比下降 2.2% 、远逊预期。 12 月消费者信心连降五个月。 ADP 周均私人就业连续三周正 增长。金银铜继续创历史新高，伦铜史上首次涨破 1.2 万美元；美国继续发力切断委内瑞拉石油贸易， 原油五连阳，五日涨近 6% 。 重点品种： 贵金属，原油，碳酸锂 贵金属 ： 国际黄金突破 4500 美元，白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7% ，低于预期的 3.1% ，核心 CPI 同比 2.6% ，低于预期的 3% 。 CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为 降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率 上行至 4.6% 。疲软的就业数据支持美联储继 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China strongly opposes the U.S. decision to include all foreign-produced drone systems and key components in the "untrusted supplier list," citing market distortion and unilateral bullying practices [1] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has been officially launched, introducing new mechanisms such as anchor pricing and multiple reactivation mechanisms to prevent malicious low pricing [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice to strengthen market risk control due to recent volatility in precious metal prices, urging members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [3] Group 2 - Beijing has issued the first batch of L3-level highway autonomous vehicle special license plates, marking a significant milestone in the production of autonomous vehicles in China [4] - LME copper prices have reached a historical high of $12,001.99 per ton, indicating a strong upward trend in upstream resources, including gold and silver [5] - Semiconductor company SMIC has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% on certain production capacities, driven by rising demand from mobile applications and AI [6] Group 3 - U.S. third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, leading to a collective rise in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones up 79.73 points and the Nasdaq up 133.02 points [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.34%, while gold and silver prices saw significant increases, with silver reaching a historical high of $71.5784 [9] - Despite the overall rise in indices, approximately 3,600 individual stocks declined, indicating a lack of coordination among stocks [10] Group 4 - A radioactive water leak incident occurred at a nuclear reactor in Japan, with approximately 20 milliliters of water leaking, but no significant radiation exposure to workers has been reported [11] - New regulations will be implemented in China starting January 1, 2026, prohibiting kindergartens from charging fees beyond tuition and care fees under various names [12] - Companies such as Guolian Aquatic Products and Dahu Co. are highlighted as potential investment targets in light of upcoming regulatory changes [12]

（原标题：见证历史了！黄金、白银、铜都创下新高） 【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼 斯调查经济学家预期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储 在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担 心：美联储在2026年初降息的可能性变小。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重 新回到'价格稳定'这个约束上来。" 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但 CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金 则逼近每盎司4,500美元，在创下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走 ...

当地时间12月23日，美股三大指数集体小幅上涨，其中标普500指数收盘价创历史新高。大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.18%，英伟 达涨超3%，亚马逊、谷歌涨超1%。 大宗商品方面，国际市场金、银、铜价携手创下历史新高，其中伦敦现货黄金价格最高逼近4500美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银价格最高至71.575美元/盎司， LME期铜最高触及12159.5美元/吨。铂金、钯金价格全线大涨，现货铂金价格最高报2295.7美元/盎司，逼近2008年3月创下历史最高纪录，纽约铂金期货 涨逾10%，现货钯金创近三年来新高，纽约钯金期货涨超7%。 标普500指数收盘价创历史新高 当地时间12月23日，美股三大指数均小幅收涨。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指涨0.16%，纳指涨0.57%；标普500指数涨0.46%，收盘价创下历史新高。 大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.18%。个股方面，英伟达涨超3%，亚马逊、谷歌涨超1%。 | A A J T RE B A R F S TO MAGS | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 67094.94 780.59 1.18% | | | | ...

当地时间12月23日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收涨，三大股指均录得四连涨。 贵金属市场方面，当天国际贵金属价格再暴涨，金银价格再创历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金首次升破4500美元/盎司关口，今年累涨超1870美 元。 另外，国际市场上铂和钯期货价格再度暴涨，其中NYMEX铂期货主力合约涨幅超过11%。 美股三大股指均实现四连涨 当地时间12月23日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收涨，其中道琼斯工业指数涨0.16%，报48442.41点，标准普尔500指数涨0.46%，报 6909.79点，纳斯达克指数涨0.57%，报23561.84点。值得注意的是，美国股市三大股指均录得四连涨。 美股市场大型科技股多数上涨，其中，亚马逊、谷歌涨超1%，Meta、苹果、微软均小幅上涨，特斯拉小幅下跌，跌幅不足1%。 航空板块整体下跌，其中美国航空跌超4%，达美航空、美联航均跌逾2%，西南航空跌超1%。 芯片股多数上涨，费城半导体指数涨0.55%，英伟达涨超3%，迈威尔科技涨逾3%，博通涨逾2%，台积电、闪迪涨超1%，阿斯麦、高通、意法 半导体涨幅均不足1%。跌幅居前的芯片股方面，微芯科技、恩智浦半导体、ARM均跌逾1%。 ...

周二，现货白银首次突破70美元/盎司，日内最高涨近3.7%，现货黄金盘中逼近4500美元、涨超1%。在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美联储进 一步降息的预期推动下，今年以来，金价累涨超过三分之二，银价年内涨约140%，涨势更为凌厉。 在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美国可能进一步降息的预期推动下，黄金和白银价格双双上涨，刷新历史新高。 纽约时间周二，现货白银日内最高涨幅3.7%，最高达到每盎司71.58美元，创历史新高，这也是白银首次突破每盎司70美元。 黄金差一点就突破每盎司4500美元，最高至4499.85美元，创下历史新高，日内涨幅最高达1.27%。铂金和钯金价格也同步上涨。 交易员押注，美联储在已经连续三次降息之后，明年还将再次降息，这将对不产生利息收益的贵金属形成利好。 ETF的强劲买盘是推动金价大幅上涨的主要动力之一。今年以来，全球最大贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust持仓量已增长超过 五分之一。 Muthoot Fincorp首席经济学家表示，过去几个月黄金ETF的资金流入，主要来自散户投资者，而非机构投资者。他指出，由于散户资金黏性较 低，价格波动性仍将维持在较高水平。 此前 ...