每日晨报│2025 年 12 月 4 日 主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 25,760 | -1.28% | +28.42% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,534 | -1.58% | +23.88% | | 国企指数 | 9,028 | -1.68% | +23.85% | | 沪深 300 | 4,531 | -0.51% | +15.15% | | 上证综合指数 | 3,878 | -0.51% | +15.70% | | 深证成份指数 | 12,955 | -0.78% | +24.40% | | 中小板指 | 7,883 | -0.77% | +23.53% | | 道琼斯指数 | 47,882 | +0.86% | +12.55% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,849 | +0.30% | +16.46% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,454 | +0.17% | +21.46% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 9,692 | -0.10% | +18.59% | | CAC40 指数 ...

Group 1: Overview of the Economic Fundamentals - The household sector's assets include financial and non-financial assets, accounting for 49.2% and 50.8% respectively as of 2022, with urban housing being the largest component, consistently over 40% [3][19] - The real estate market recovery is expected to go through three phases: a rebound in transaction volume, followed by price recovery, and finally stabilization of investment [3][23] - The leverage ratios of the three sectors show structural differentiation, with the household sector stabilizing around 60%, non-financial enterprises increasing to 174.4%, and government sector leverage rising steadily [12][34] Group 2: Policy Trends from Monetary Reports - Since July 2024, the central bank has introduced various monetary policy tools focusing on quantity and price adjustments, with a notable reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points in May 2025 [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity policy in 2026, with a baseline scenario of 1-2 rate cuts of 25-50 basis points and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points [4][6] - The relationship between deposit and loan rates is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased from 1.97% in Q1 2022 to 1.42% in Q3 2025, indicating a need for careful policy adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Investment from Relative Value Perspective - The 1Y government bond yield is expected to remain around 1.4%, with the 10Y government bond yield projected at approximately 1.7% [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated rate cuts, while uncertainties in the second half will depend on the effectiveness of policies aimed at economic recovery [6][28] - Current relative value assessments indicate that the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds has weakened, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy [6] Group 4: Corporate Sector Analysis - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has increased from 155% in Q1 2022 to 174.4% in Q3 2025, but internal financing demand remains weak [34] - The ratio of medium to long-term loans to short-term loans and bill financing is low, indicating a focus on short-term liquidity rather than long-term investment expansion [34] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the issue of rising revenues without corresponding profit increases, with early signs of effectiveness in improving capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [40] Group 5: Government Sector Financial Overview - The fiscal deficit is projected to be around 12.6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of approximately 8.5%, indicating a trend of expanding government balance sheets [3][45] - Tax revenue is expected to reach approximately 17.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with a forecast of 18.2 trillion yuan for 2026 based on historical growth rates [49] - Government spending is categorized into various sectors, with social welfare and infrastructure spending being the largest components, accounting for 38% and 23% respectively in 2024 [57]

Core Insights - The top short-selling stocks include New World Development (80016), AIA Group (81299), and Anta Sports (82020), all with a short-selling ratio of 100.00% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba (09988) at 1.323 billion, Meituan (03690) at 803 million, and China Construction Bank (00939) at 638 million [1][2] - The highest deviation values are seen in China National Offshore Oil (80883) at 51.67%, Geely Automobile (80175) at 44.09%, and AIA Group (81299) at 41.20% [1][2] Short-Selling Ratio Rankings - New World Development (80016) has a short-selling amount of 448,300 with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 24.48% [2] - AIA Group (81299) shows a short-selling amount of 1,577,600 with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 41.20% [2] - Anta Sports (82020) has a short-selling amount of 46,000 with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 18.18% [2] Short-Selling Amount Rankings - Alibaba (09988) leads with a short-selling amount of 1.323 billion, a ratio of 15.88%, and a deviation of -0.65% [2] - Meituan (03690) follows with 803 million, a ratio of 21.41%, and a deviation of 2.70% [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) has a short-selling amount of 638 million, a ratio of 33.55%, and a deviation of 9.51% [2] Short-Selling Deviation Rankings - China National Offshore Oil (80883) has a short-selling amount of 106,660 with a ratio of 71.02% and a deviation of 51.67% [2] - Geely Automobile (80175) shows a short-selling amount of 20,010 with a ratio of 92.88% and a deviation of 44.09% [2] - AIA Group (81299) has a short-selling amount of 1,577,600 with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 41.20% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its subsidiary, Wuhan Diyue Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., has filed a lawsuit against the Wuhan Caidian District Natural Resources and Urban Construction Bureau over an administrative agreement dispute, seeking to terminate a land transfer contract and recover associated costs [1] Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Wuhan Diyue has received a notice from the Wuhan Caidian District People's Court regarding the acceptance of its lawsuit [1] - The lawsuit requests the return of land transfer fees amounting to 361 million yuan, compensation for losses of 713 million yuan, tax fees of 14.64 million yuan, and additional fees of 7.38 million yuan [1] - The company stated that this lawsuit will not have a significant adverse impact on its daily operations and debt repayment capacity [1]

钛媒体App 12月4日消息，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政 策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》，文中提到，做实覆盖 全面的重点领域风险防范举措。对经济运行，防止经济运行中的关键领域、关键行业大幅波动影响经济 金融高质量发展进程。对重点金融机构，围绕提升损失吸收能力和风险应对水平、强化风险早识别早预 警，不断夯实附加监管。对跨境资本流动，根据形势及时采取逆周期调控措施，保持跨境资本流动总体 平稳。对金融市场，及时矫正和阻断市场"羊群效应"，促进实体经济和金融市场的正向循环。对房地产 市场，加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，助力构建房地产发展新模式。对 互联网金融，把握好防范风险与促进创新的平衡，促进其整体稳健运行。（人民日报） ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in major Canadian cities, including Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, is experiencing a significant downturn in both sales and prices, indicating a broader market adjustment [3][8][10] Group 1: Sales and Price Trends - In November 2025, the number of homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area through the MLS system was 5,010, a decrease of 15.8% compared to November 2024 [3] - The average home price in Toronto for November was CAD 1,039,458, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 6.4% [3] - The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark also saw a decrease of 5.8% year-over-year, indicating a clear market adjustment [3] Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Economic uncertainty is causing many Toronto buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a desire for more confidence in long-term employment prospects [5] - Positive economic signals have emerged, including the addition of 67,000 jobs in October and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, alongside a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3 [5] - Analysts suggest that if trade uncertainties are resolved and infrastructure projects positively impact the economy, buyer confidence may improve [5] Group 3: National Market Trends - The cooling of the real estate market is not unique to Toronto; Vancouver and Calgary are also experiencing declines in sales and prices [8][10] - In November, Vancouver saw a 15.4% year-over-year decrease in home sales and a 3.9% drop in prices, while Calgary's sales fell by 13.4% [10] - The market is expected to stabilize by 2026 if the current positive economic momentum continues, potentially leading to increased consumer confidence and purchasing ability [8][10]

序号股东名称持股比例1见山科技（陵水）有限公司100% 经营范围含一般经营项目：创业投资（限投资未上市企业）；住房租赁；房地产咨询；租赁服务（不含 许可类租赁服务）；市场营销策划；采购代理服务；旅游开发项目策划咨询；销售代理；农产品的生 产、销售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；人工智能硬件销售；新能源汽车生产测试设备销售；金 属基复合材料和陶瓷基复合材料销售；五金产品批发；食用农产品批发；露营地服务；医院管理；酒店 管理；体育赛事策划；商务代理代办服务；国内贸易代理；贸易经纪；社会经济咨询服务；会议及展览 服务；离岸贸易经营（经营范围中的一般经营项目依法自主开展经营活动，通过国家企业信用信息公示 系统（海南）向社会公示） 天眼查显示，近日，见山创展（海南）控股有限公司成立，法定代表人为蒋振威，注册资本1000万人民 币，由见山科技（陵水）有限公司全资持股。 企业名称见山创展（海南）控股有限公司法定代表人蒋振威注册资本1000万人民币国标行业金融业>资 本市场服务>其他资本市场服务地址海南省陵水黎族自治县英州镇电科1号路中国电科海洋信息产业基 地独立研发单元4栋203室企业类型其他有限责任公司营业期限2025 ...

（原标题：商业部商业发展厅宣布推出五项新措施加强企业监管） 据泰媒报道，商业部商业发展厅宣布推出五项新措施，加强对企业注册、 代持和涉嫌洗钱账户的监管。 上述措施部分已启动，预计将在2026年新年前全面实施。商业发展厅厅长 潘蓬表示，近期调查已启动72起案件，另有448起涉大型企业，房地产等吸引 外资行业将成为重点审查对象。通过源头治理，有望减少代持和洗钱等风险。 措施包括：一是扩大高风险人员筛查，目前已收到9万条信息并确认40人 存在高风险；二是整合各机构数据，重点核查1340万国家福利卡持有人，防止 不法分子盗用身份注册公司。三是建立风险行为预警系统，重点审查同一地点 注册多家公司等异常情况，强化身份核验。四是完善管理制度，对会计师事务 所、律师等代理注册主体要求现场身份确认并签字。五是对8万名注册系统用 户加强监管，如发现违规将暂停权限并依法吊销执照。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月03日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡下挫，AI 应用、锂电池题材领跌 市场表现：20251203 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中沪深 300 指数表 现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 价值指数 表现较好。交通运输、有色金属、煤炭、综合金融、家电行业表现较好，传 媒、计算机、房地产、商贸零售、综合行业表现较差。培育钻石、超硬材料、 锗镓锑墨、铝产业、铝空气电池等概念表现较好，WEB3.0、百度平台、小红 书平台、RCS、ChatGPT 等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251203 收盘时有 53 只股票涨停，有 16 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 1.17%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-5.91%。今日封 板率 61%，较前日下降 7%，连板率 24%，较前日下降 0%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251202 两融余额为 24865 亿元，其中融资余额 24689 亿元，融券余额 176 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.7%。 折溢价：20251202 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是 G60 创 ...

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The willingness of residents to purchase homes has decreased, leading to a significant decline in the correlation between housing prices and overall price levels[1] - The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has dropped by over 30% year-on-year since Q4[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index continues to decline but is still 48.63% higher than the level at the beginning of 2015, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 85.16%[1] Group 2: Price Movements - New home prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year[1] - Second-hand home prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, with a similar expansion in the decline[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have remained at low levels, indicating a decoupling from housing prices since 2022[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening housing market has led to a decrease in consumer spending, as falling home prices do not affect income expectations for non-homeowners[1] - Financial asset price increases have partially offset the negative impact of declining housing prices on the wealth of homeowners[1] - Transfer income growth has alleviated the drag on resident income growth caused by falling housing prices, with transfer income increasing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year[1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The data suggests that the influence of housing prices on inflation may be limited in the coming year, as the correlation between price levels and housing prices continues to decline[1] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global economic downturns[1]