港股券商股延续涨势 招商证券涨近15% 智通财经7月15日电，截至发稿，招商证券(06099.HK)涨14.98%、中信建投证券(2.39.HK)涨2.39%、东 方证券(03958.HK)涨1.58%、国泰海通(01456.HK)涨0.66%。消息方面，招银国际于7月14日正式获得香 港证券及期货事务监察委员会批准，成为香港首家取得虚拟资产交易服务等相关牌照的中资银行系券 商。 ...

Group 1: Virtual Assets in Hong Kong - Hong Kong is expected to become a global virtual asset center following the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation, which will enhance the development of stablecoin issuance, trading, and cross-border payments [1] - Domestic securities firms' subsidiaries in Hong Kong are likely to expand their business through license upgrades, leading to new performance growth points [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector Outlook - The insurance sector is anticipated to experience a "Davis Double" effect, with performance growth and valuation recovery due to stabilized long-term interest rates alleviating pressure on insurance companies' asset allocation [2] - Current valuation levels are seen as overly reflecting the suppression of future investment returns by low interest rates, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [2] Group 3: Robotics and AI Investment Opportunities - The domestic robotics industry is undergoing positive changes, with leading manufacturers accelerating their capitalization processes, which is expected to increase overall industry capital expenditure and create a demonstration effect for future listings [3] - The recent procurement of a 124 million yuan humanoid biped robot contract signifies a significant step in the commercialization of humanoid robots, indicating that exploration in commercial scenarios is progressing [3] - Investment opportunities in "AI + Robotics" should not be limited to humanoid robots; sectors such as sensors, dexterous hands, robotic dogs, exoskeletons, and vertical applications are highlighted as having favorable competitive landscapes and continuous data validation [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has taken significant action, indicating that the A-share market is likely entering a new IPO cycle as the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) has recently surpassed 3500 points, suggesting an acceleration in IPOs in the second half of the year [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a notable increase in IPO activity since May, which is a natural outcome following a bull market, as capital markets aim to support the real economy [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the three major indices showing mixed performance, and a larger market shift is anticipated as investors adjust their mindset following the SHCI's breakthrough of 3500 points [3] - Financial and defensive stocks have been performing strongly, which is intended to boost market confidence, and it is expected that thematic stocks will begin to gain momentum once confidence is sufficiently built [3] Group 3 - There is a cautious outlook on index performance, emphasizing that individual stock performance will be crucial following the index rally, with banking stocks showing signs of weakness which could indicate a healthy market environment for other sectors [5] - The banking sector's performance has been pivotal in maintaining the index above the red line, with significant trading volume observed, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The current market is dominated by bank stocks and micro-cap stocks, with increases of 0.46% and 1.39% respectively, and the latter has reached a new high [1] - Insurance capital is expected to diversify into low PB valuation sectors under the anti-involution expectations, beyond just banks [2][6] - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to their attractive dividend yields and high certainty, which is not solely based on performance predictability [4][6] Group 2 - Bank performance is relatively stable, with manageable declines, as they can utilize provisioning rates to smooth out fluctuations [5] - In comparison, sectors like coal and steel have lower dividend yields and significant performance declines, with major players like China Shenhua expected to see a net profit drop of 8.6%-15.7% year-on-year [5] - The dynamic nature of dividend yields and fundamentals means that as bank stock prices rise, their attractiveness to insurance capital may decrease, while other sectors could become more appealing if they stabilize and offer good yields [6][7] Group 3 - The brokerage index has shown a slowdown, failing to maintain its upward momentum [8] - The recent breakthrough of 3500 points lacks the usual fervor, indicating a subdued market sentiment [9] - Most brokerages reported significant profit growth, with some like Guotai Junan and Haitong seeing increases of 205%-218% and 1183% respectively, driven by a favorable stock market environment [11][13] Group 4 - The second wave of the brokerage market is believed to be ongoing, supported by solid fundamentals [14] - Historical data suggests that significant upward movements in the brokerage sector are infrequent, with only seven instances of over 20% increases since 2010, excluding 2015 [15] Group 5 - Two REITs are available for subscription, with minimum investments of 1000 yuan each, expected to yield annualized returns surpassing reverse repos [17] - The current stock-bond yield spread stands at 5.93%, indicating a higher relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds [23]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and investment strategies of various funds under Tongtai Fund, particularly focusing on the Tongtai Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund, which has shown significant changes in its portfolio and profitability in the second quarter of 2025 [2][5]. Fund Performance Summary - Tongtai Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund, managed by Wang Xiu, has a focus on assets related to industrial upgrades and has seen a notable shift in its top holdings towards the robotics industry, with six out of the top ten stocks being related to this sector [2][5]. - The fund's net asset value (NAV) for Class A shares was 1.6399 yuan, with a net value growth rate of -0.29%, resulting in a realized loss of 481,000 yuan for the quarter [5][6]. - Class C shares of the same fund reported a NAV of 1.6187 yuan and a net value growth rate of -0.38%, with a realized loss of 431,260 yuan [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Wang Xiu indicated a strategic shift back towards the robotics sector due to significant price corrections, with a focus on three main lines: leading manufacturers, core component companies capable of import substitution, and quality firms in the AI and robotics integration space [6][7]. - The fund's top holdings include Horizon Robotics, which accounts for 9.01% of the portfolio, and other companies in the robotics supply chain [5][6]. Comparison with Other Funds - In contrast, the Tongtai Financial Selected Stock Fund achieved positive returns in the second quarter, with Class A shares showing a NAV of 1.0541 yuan and a growth rate of 7.20%, while Class C shares had a NAV of 1.0388 yuan and a growth rate of 7.09% [7][8]. - The Financial Selected Stock Fund focused on long-term investments in the financial sector, particularly in brokerage and fintech stocks, benefiting from a recovering A-share market [8][9]. Other Fund Performances - The Tongtai Vision Mixed Fund and Tongtai Huile Mixed Fund reported negative returns, with the Vision Mixed Fund's Class A shares showing a realized loss of 139,220 yuan and a net value growth rate of 17% [9][10]. - The Huile Mixed Fund, focusing on TMT and technology growth sectors, also reported negative performance, with Class A shares realizing a loss of 74,150 yuan [9].

Market Overview - The equity market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving a weekly three consecutive gains[1] - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3500 points, boosting investor confidence[2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend, pressured by the strong performance of the equity market[3] Equity Market Insights - Financial sectors, including banks, securities, and real estate, have taken the lead in driving market growth, especially as the technology sector faced short-term setbacks[2] - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty due to global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. threatening to impose tariffs[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a balanced approach, holding both technology and financial sectors while considering service-oriented consumption[14] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a flat performance with an overall decline, influenced by the strong equity market which has limited upward potential for bonds[3] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall liquidity remains loose, benefiting short-term bonds[5] Commodity Market Overview - Major commodities like oil and gold have shown lackluster performance, with the market remaining in a low-level oscillation phase[6] - The geopolitical situation and abundant oil supply continue to impact the global oil market negatively, while gold remains stable due to a weakening dollar[6] Investment Recommendations - For the equity market, it is recommended to focus on the financial sector for short-term gains while keeping an eye on the dual innovation sectors for long-term growth[14] - In the commodity market, maintaining a position in gold is advised for the short term, with a watchful eye on market developments for the long term[40]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in A-share financing balance indicates a growing interest from investors, particularly in the non-bank financial and non-ferrous metal sectors, with a total financing balance reaching 18,757.94 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Financing Balance Trends - The A-share market's financing balance has seen a continuous increase for five consecutive trading days, with the latest balance reported at 18,625.86 billion yuan, reflecting net increases of 6.36 billion yuan, 5.49 billion yuan, 3.84 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 2.08 billion yuan during the period from July 7 to July 11 [4]. - Among the 31 industries classified by Shenwan, 22 experienced an increase in financing balance, with the non-bank financial sector leading with an increase of 3.54 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-bank financial and non-ferrous metal sectors have attracted the most financing, with significant net inflows, while the computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors also saw increases in financing balance during the same period [4]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is supported by rising prices, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1,883% to 2.015 billion yuan for the first half of the year, indicating strong sector health [5]. Group 3: Individual Stock Activity - During the financing balance increase, 84 stocks received over 100 million yuan in net purchases, with the top ten stocks being BYD, Zijin Mining, PetroChina Capital, and others, showing significant investor interest [9]. Group 4: Brokerages and Market Activity - Brokerages are optimistic about the recovery of investment banking activities and increased market activity, which is expected to boost their performance [5]. - The number of individual investors engaging in margin trading reached 7.4799 million as of June 30, 2025, indicating a growing participation in the market [10].

【导读】煤炭板块率先掀"反内卷"行情，中国稀土上半年扭亏为盈 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月14日，香港三大股指全线上涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.26%，报24203.32点；恒生科技指数涨0.67%，报5283.50点；恒生中国企业指数涨0.52%，报8732.74 点。全日市场成交额为2104亿港元，较上一交易日明显回落；南向资金净买入额为82.43亿港元。 恒生指数成份股中53只上涨，27只下跌。涨幅方面，中国神华上涨5.16%，翰森制药上涨3.49%，快手上涨3.33%；跌幅方面，海底捞下跌3.68%，百度集 团下跌2.72%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中国神华 | 1088 | 32.600 c | 1.600 | 5.16% | 16.04亿 | 4.51% | | 2 | 翰森制药 | 3692 | 32.600 c | 1.100 | 3.49% | 2.46亿 | 89.50% | | 3 | 快手-W | 1024 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on July 14, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. It also analyzes the market conditions on July 11, 2025, and provides some macro - economic information and trading tips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) will be strongly volatile, and silver (AG2510) will be strongly volatile and may hit a new high. Resistance and support levels are given [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2508) will be range - bound, aluminum (AL2508) will be weakly volatile, zinc (ZN2508) and nickel (NI2508) will be weakly volatile, while tin (SN2508), alumina (AO2509) will be strongly volatile, with support and resistance levels for each [3][4]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) will be strongly volatile, and PTA (TA509) will be strongly volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Soybean oil (Y2509) and palm oil (P2509) will be strongly volatile, while corn (C2509) and natural rubber (RU2509) will be weakly volatile, with support and resistance levels [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - The 2025 SCO Digital Economy Forum was held, and 12 digital economy cooperation projects were signed. The Ministry of Finance promotes long - term and stable investment of insurance funds. Diplomatic activities between China and the US, Russia, etc. were carried out [9][10]. - The second - quarter high - frequency data in China showed improvement in consumption, investment, etc. The US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, which affected the global trade and financial markets [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The IEA adjusted the growth expectations of global oil supply and demand. International oil prices rose on July 11, 2025, and international precious metal futures generally closed higher. London base metals mostly closed lower [17][18][19]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 11, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 showed different trends, with some hitting new highs. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in July 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the ten - year T2509 had a slight decline, and the thirty - year TL2509 had a slight increase. They are expected to have wide - range fluctuations on July 14 [50][52]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) had a slight increase on July 11, 2025, and is expected to be strongly volatile in July and on July 14. Silver (AG2510) hit a new high on July 12, 2025, and is expected to continue to rise [55][61]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Different base metal futures showed various trends on July 11, 2025, and their trends on July 14 and in July 2025 are predicted [74][78][83]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) had different trends on July 11, 2025, and their future trends are forecasted [128][132]. - **Other Futures**: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, caustic soda futures all have their own trends on July 11, 2025, and future trends are predicted [100][102][105].

Group 1 - Robinhood has launched a new service called "stock tokens" in the European market, allowing users to trade over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs, including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft [1] - The company plans to introduce tokens linked to private company stocks, including OpenAI and SpaceX, aiming to provide retail investors access to these private unicorns [1] - Following the announcement, Robinhood's stock price surged by 12.77% on June 30 and reached a historical high of $100.88 on July 2, indicating strong market expectations for its tokenization business [1] Group 2 - OpenAI issued a statement clarifying that the "OpenAI tokens" do not represent equity in the company and that they have not authorized any equity transfer, which negatively impacted Robinhood's stock price [3][5] - Following OpenAI's statement, Robinhood's stock price fell by 3.65% on July 3, closing at $94.40, with intraday losses nearing 6% [5] Group 3 - Stock tokens are a blockchain-based representation of securities, allowing for the tokenization of stocks, where holders receive economic rights but not direct ownership [6] - Advantages of stock tokens include 24/7 trading, decentralized custody, participation in DeFi activities, and breaking down barriers to private market access [7] - However, risks include the lack of real ownership, unclear legal status, opacity of underlying assets, and high technical barriers for retail investors [8][9] Group 4 - Robinhood's market capitalization exceeds $83.3 billion, surpassing over 370 companies in the S&P 500, yet it has not been included in the index [10][11] - The reasons for this exclusion include insufficient consistent profitability and the complexity of the company's structure, particularly with its non-traditional token business [12] Group 5 - Robinhood's stock tokenization initiative represents a bold experiment in fintech, aiming to democratize access to private market investments for ordinary investors [13] - Despite its innovative approach, the execution and legality of the initiative remain in a gray area, requiring time and regulatory consensus for validation [13]