【导读】煤炭板块率先掀"反内卷"行情，中国稀土上半年扭亏为盈 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月14日，香港三大股指全线上涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.26%，报24203.32点；恒生科技指数涨0.67%，报5283.50点；恒生中国企业指数涨0.52%，报8732.74 点。全日市场成交额为2104亿港元，较上一交易日明显回落；南向资金净买入额为82.43亿港元。 恒生指数成份股中53只上涨，27只下跌。涨幅方面，中国神华上涨5.16%，翰森制药上涨3.49%，快手上涨3.33%；跌幅方面，海底捞下跌3.68%，百度集 团下跌2.72%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中国神华 | 1088 | 32.600 c | 1.600 | 5.16% | 16.04亿 | 4.51% | | 2 | 翰森制药 | 3692 | 32.600 c | 1.100 | 3.49% | 2.46亿 | 89.50% | | 3 | 快手-W | 1024 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on July 14, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. It also analyzes the market conditions on July 11, 2025, and provides some macro - economic information and trading tips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) will be strongly volatile, and silver (AG2510) will be strongly volatile and may hit a new high. Resistance and support levels are given [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2508) will be range - bound, aluminum (AL2508) will be weakly volatile, zinc (ZN2508) and nickel (NI2508) will be weakly volatile, while tin (SN2508), alumina (AO2509) will be strongly volatile, with support and resistance levels for each [3][4]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) will be strongly volatile, and PTA (TA509) will be strongly volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Soybean oil (Y2509) and palm oil (P2509) will be strongly volatile, while corn (C2509) and natural rubber (RU2509) will be weakly volatile, with support and resistance levels [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - The 2025 SCO Digital Economy Forum was held, and 12 digital economy cooperation projects were signed. The Ministry of Finance promotes long - term and stable investment of insurance funds. Diplomatic activities between China and the US, Russia, etc. were carried out [9][10]. - The second - quarter high - frequency data in China showed improvement in consumption, investment, etc. The US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, which affected the global trade and financial markets [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The IEA adjusted the growth expectations of global oil supply and demand. International oil prices rose on July 11, 2025, and international precious metal futures generally closed higher. London base metals mostly closed lower [17][18][19]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 11, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 showed different trends, with some hitting new highs. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in July 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the ten - year T2509 had a slight decline, and the thirty - year TL2509 had a slight increase. They are expected to have wide - range fluctuations on July 14 [50][52]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) had a slight increase on July 11, 2025, and is expected to be strongly volatile in July and on July 14. Silver (AG2510) hit a new high on July 12, 2025, and is expected to continue to rise [55][61]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Different base metal futures showed various trends on July 11, 2025, and their trends on July 14 and in July 2025 are predicted [74][78][83]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) had different trends on July 11, 2025, and their future trends are forecasted [128][132]. - **Other Futures**: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, caustic soda futures all have their own trends on July 11, 2025, and future trends are predicted [100][102][105].

Group 1 - Robinhood has launched a new service called "stock tokens" in the European market, allowing users to trade over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs, including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft [1] - The company plans to introduce tokens linked to private company stocks, including OpenAI and SpaceX, aiming to provide retail investors access to these private unicorns [1] - Following the announcement, Robinhood's stock price surged by 12.77% on June 30 and reached a historical high of $100.88 on July 2, indicating strong market expectations for its tokenization business [1] Group 2 - OpenAI issued a statement clarifying that the "OpenAI tokens" do not represent equity in the company and that they have not authorized any equity transfer, which negatively impacted Robinhood's stock price [3][5] - Following OpenAI's statement, Robinhood's stock price fell by 3.65% on July 3, closing at $94.40, with intraday losses nearing 6% [5] Group 3 - Stock tokens are a blockchain-based representation of securities, allowing for the tokenization of stocks, where holders receive economic rights but not direct ownership [6] - Advantages of stock tokens include 24/7 trading, decentralized custody, participation in DeFi activities, and breaking down barriers to private market access [7] - However, risks include the lack of real ownership, unclear legal status, opacity of underlying assets, and high technical barriers for retail investors [8][9] Group 4 - Robinhood's market capitalization exceeds $83.3 billion, surpassing over 370 companies in the S&P 500, yet it has not been included in the index [10][11] - The reasons for this exclusion include insufficient consistent profitability and the complexity of the company's structure, particularly with its non-traditional token business [12] Group 5 - Robinhood's stock tokenization initiative represents a bold experiment in fintech, aiming to democratize access to private market investments for ordinary investors [13] - Despite its innovative approach, the execution and legality of the initiative remain in a gray area, requiring time and regulatory consensus for validation [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share market is driven by strong mid-year earnings reports, with many companies experiencing significant profit growth, leading to increased investor interest and stock price appreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of July 12, approximately 487 A-share companies have disclosed mid-year earnings forecasts, with a positive outlook rate of 57.7%, slightly higher than the same period last year [3]. - The non-bank sector shows a high positive outlook rate of about 90.9%, with companies like China Union and Huaxi Securities expecting over 1000% growth [3]. - The home appliance sector has a positive outlook rate of around 70%, with companies like Whirlpool and Sichuan Changhong reporting growth rates exceeding 50% [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Companies with strong earnings forecasts, such as Huayin Power, have seen their stock prices surge, with Huayin Power's stock rising 101.33% in July and achieving a 36 to 44 times increase in net profit [1][4]. - Other companies like Yudai Development are also experiencing significant stock price increases, with a forecasted net profit growth of 632% to 784% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - High-performing sectors identified include AI hardware supply chains, wind power, gaming, small metals, and non-bank financials, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [6][7]. - The second quarter's performance is expected to be strong in upstream industrial metals, wind power, and sectors with order fulfillment expectations, such as military industries [7]. - Historical data indicates that there have been nine structural market trends during mid-year earnings disclosures since 2010, with TMT sectors showing potential for recovery in August [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% to 10696.1 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.8% to 2207.1 points, with the STAR 50 Index up by 1.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 173.69 billion yuan, an increase of over 220 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Key sectors that saw gains included brokerage, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel, while the banking sector experienced a decline in the afternoon [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The new photovoltaic paste industry is accelerating, with a projected market space exceeding 15 billion yuan by 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - New types of photovoltaic pastes, such as silver-coated copper and high copper/pure copper pastes, are expected to achieve mass production by Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Market - MP Materials has established a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth supply chain, highlighting the strategic value of rare earth resources [3] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to increasing needs in electric vehicles, air conditioning, and industrial robots, with the commercialization of humanoid robots further expanding future demand [3] - The recovery of exports and seasonal supply increases in Southeast Asia are anticipated to stabilize rare earth prices, benefiting the profitability of companies in the industry [3] Group 4: CXO Industry Outlook - The CXO industry is expected to see a recovery in overseas demand as the market gradually warms up in 2024, with good growth trends in new orders for domestic CXO companies [4] - The CRO sector is projected to stabilize in pricing by the second half of 2024, with some segments experiencing increased demand in 2025 [4] Group 5: Policy Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has implemented new rules to deepen the reform of the STAR Market, allowing unprofitable companies to enter the growth tier and introducing a pre-review mechanism for IPOs [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to establish long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies, promoting stable and long-term investments [7] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is pushing for state capital to concentrate on strategic emerging industries [8] Group 6: Robotics Sector - Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushu Technology have won a significant contract for humanoid bipedal robot manufacturing services from China Mobile, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking it as the largest order in the domestic humanoid robot sector [9]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破去年四季度密集成交区，重心继续上移。沪指突破五、六月份来回震 荡的小箱体后连续上行，已经越过了去年四季度的密集成交区，重心再次上移。目前上方的主要技术压 力位在去年十月初的高点，这个位置也是周线大箱体的顶部位置。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，宏观预期有所改善，A 股市场连续上涨。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边际改善。 全球贸易摩擦逐步缓和，美国的部分压制手段有所收敛。国内方面，"反内卷"工作持续推进，产能过剩 预期将有所缓解，这对提升盈利预期有正面作用。此外，稳定币的发展对金融板块形成一定利好，推动 相关板块持续活跃，帮助指数冲破重要技术压力。上周，两市连续反弹，日均成交增加。沪指上周延续 了向上反弹的趋势，周三盘中创出去年 11 月以来的高点，周四周五继续向上推进。深圳成指上周同步 反弹，创出阶段高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 15000 亿，较上周出现回升。上周市场热点主 要集中在钢铁、房地产和券商等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 ...

港股部分中资券商股走强，国联民生(01456.HK)盘中一度涨超30%，现涨超20%，兴证国际(06058.HK) 涨超7%。 ...

Group 1: Computer Industry Deep Dive Report - The report emphasizes the evolution of technology paths and the opportunities within the industry chain, focusing on hardware interconnection and scenario adaptation [10][12] - The emergence of supernodes is driven by explosive growth in model parameters, shifting computing demand from single points to system-level integration [12] - Key players like NVIDIA and Huawei have made significant breakthroughs in cabinet-level interconnection and cross-cabinet networking technologies, marking a competitive focus on high-density computing [12] - Domestic solutions, represented by Huawei's CloudMatrix 384, have achieved significant computing scale breakthroughs, surpassing single-card performance bottlenecks [12] - The industrialization of supernodes will reshape the computing industry chain, creating investment opportunities in server integration, optical communication, and liquid cooling [12] Group 2: Insurance Industry Commentary - The report discusses the implementation of long-cycle assessments for insurance companies, which aims to align long-term investments with short-term evaluations [11][13] - The new policy encourages insurance funds to enter the market, addressing previous barriers to investment and enhancing the role of insurance capital in the capital market [13][15] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in long-term interest rates, which could optimize new liability costs and improve investment returns [15] Group 3: Tencent Holdings Commentary - Tencent is projected to achieve a revenue of 178.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 60.2 billion yuan, a 5% increase [17][19] - The gaming segment continues to show healthy growth, with anticipated revenue growth of 14% in Q2 2025, driven by new game releases [17] - The advertising revenue is expected to grow by 17%, supported by AI-driven enhancements in advertising capabilities [17] - Tencent's commitment to AI is evident across its business segments, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [17] Group 4: Debt Market Analysis - The report describes the current "stair-step" trend in the debt market, characterized by a low interest rate and low spread environment [14][16] - The analysis highlights the importance of identifying small strategies within the debt market, as the overall market remains in a state of fluctuation [14] - Future developments, such as potential interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases, are seen as necessary to break the current market trend [14]