在杜昊旻看来，房地产行业最核心的变化正发生在需求侧。杜昊旻观察到，当前优质住宅的产品力已实 现质的飞跃：得房率从过去的75%-78%普遍跃升至90%以上，部分地区甚至突破100%；层高从压抑的 2.8-2.9米普遍提升至3.2米以上，高端项目可达3.6米，极大提升了空间感和舒适度。"当前中国的中高端 改善型住宅产品品质已位居世界前列。"杜昊旻评价道。 关于当科技创新成为经济的核心驱动力，房地产的角色是否会被边缘化？对此，杜昊旻给出了否定答 案。他援引国际经验指出，即便在城市化后期的美国，房地产业占GDP比重仍稳定在11%-12%；日本也 维持在高位。 反观中国，该比重此前约为7%-7.5%，近年因行业深度调整回落至5%左右。杜昊旻判断，随着市场企 稳，中国房地产业占GDP比重有望回升并稳定在6%-7%的区间。"房地产在经济结构中依然扮演着支柱 产业的角色。"他总结道。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典在上海圆满举行。本次大会 汇聚了逾300位权威学者、公私募基金负责人、上市公司董事长、顶 ...

智通财经APP讯，TST PROPERTIES(00247)发布公告，于2025年12月3日，根据截至2025年6月30日止年 度的末期股息的以股代息计划发行的4540.52万股代息股份。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The legacy of Zhou Jintao and his predictions regarding the K-wave cycle continue to resonate in the Chinese investment community, highlighting the cyclical nature of economic opportunities and challenges [2][41]. Group 1: Zhou Jintao's Predictions and Theories - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be the darkest moment of the K-wave cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, particularly for those born after 1985 [2][41]. - His theory, known as the "Tidal Cycle Theory," incorporates real estate cycles into the K-wave framework, suggesting that individuals have limited opportunities for wealth accumulation throughout their lives [47][48]. - Zhou's insights into the cyclical nature of the economy were informed by historical comparisons, particularly with Japan's economic development in the 1960s [42][43]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Trends - Following Zhou's predictions, the global market has experienced increasing volatility, with significant events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and financial deleveraging impacting market stability [3][39]. - The real estate market in China saw unexpected resilience, contrary to Zhou's predictions that it had peaked, while gold prices remained suppressed under a strong dollar [39][54]. - By 2025, the real estate prices in major cities had largely erased gains made since 2016, while international gold prices surged from under $1,100 per ounce in early 2016 to over $4,200 [39][54]. Group 3: The Evolution of Economic Theories - Zhou's theories have faced challenges in the past decade, as unexpected events have complicated the cyclical predictions he made, particularly regarding the resilience of the real estate market and the strength of the dollar [54][61]. - The emergence of the AI revolution and other technological advancements has shifted the focus of resource demand, indicating a departure from traditional economic cycles as predicted by Zhou [62][67]. - The K-wave cycle is now seen as more complex and less predictable, influenced by rapid technological changes and global economic shifts, diverging from Zhou's original framework [67][68].

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [1][11][60] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [1][19] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [1][24][73] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology-driven innovation, which can highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [1][4][28] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][33][79] - The experience from Hong Kong shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to be close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [1][38][86] Group 3 - The past year and a half has seen significant changes in China's capital market due to shifts in policy, enterprise dynamics, and funding [2][9][23] - Enterprises have shown resilience and adaptability, enhancing competitiveness and innovation despite facing challenges from domestic real estate adjustments and external geopolitical pressures [13][14][65] - The trend of foreign investment returning to China is evident, as global investors seek diversified allocations beyond dollar assets [3][20][70] Group 4 - The real estate sector remains a significant influence on China's economy, with traditional industries still holding substantial sway [5][31][82] - The adjustment period for real estate in China is nearing its end, with significant declines in construction and sales volumes observed [85][86] - The need for a balanced approach in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on both technological advancement and consumer demand [25][51][100] Group 5 - Consumer spending is being targeted for enhancement through the establishment of a unified national market and increased fiscal investment in social welfare [42][92][95] - The low consumer rate and high savings rate in China are attributed to an inadequate social security system, which needs reform to boost consumer confidence [46][96][99] - The potential for a significant increase in domestic consumption is projected, with the goal of raising the share of consumption in GDP from approximately 40% to 45% by 2030 [49][50][99]

Group 1 - The article discusses the enduring influence of Zhou Jintao's "Kondratiev wave" theory in the Chinese investment community, emphasizing its relevance in understanding economic cycles and investment opportunities [2][3][4] - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be a dark moment in the Kondratiev cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, which was seen as a significant opportunity for those born after 1985 [2][4] - The article reflects on the volatility of global markets post-2018, highlighting the unpredictability of events such as the U.S.-China trade war and the impact of monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - Zhou Jintao's assertion to "sell houses and invest in gold" was based on his belief that the real estate cycle had peaked, yet contrary trends in housing prices and gold prices were observed in subsequent years [4][6] - By 2025, housing prices in major cities had largely erased gains made since 2016, while gold prices surged significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][6] - The article notes that Zhou's predictions about the cyclical nature of real estate and commodities were not fully realized due to unexpected market resilience and external economic factors [4][6] Group 3 - Zhou Jintao's "Tao Movement Cycle Theory" integrates the Kondratiev wave with real estate, investment, and inventory cycles, suggesting that individuals experience limited wealth opportunities throughout their lives [14][20] - His framework posits that individuals have only three significant wealth opportunities in a 60-year life span, with the first opportunity for those born after 1985 occurring in 2019 [14][20] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a means to navigate personal financial decisions and investment strategies [14][20] Group 4 - The article critiques Zhou Jintao's underestimation of the resilience of the Chinese real estate market and the strength of the U.S. dollar system, which prolonged certain economic trends beyond his predictions [18][20] - It highlights the unexpected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the AI revolution on commodity prices and market dynamics, which deviated from Zhou's forecasts [26][32] - The discussion points to a shift in focus from traditional commodities to new resources driven by technological advancements and changing market demands [26][32]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000638 证券简称：*ST万方（维权） 公告编号：2025-082 持股5%以上股东吉林双阳农村商业银行股份有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人 提供的信息一致。 2025年12月2日，万方城镇投资发展股份有限公司（以下简称"万方发展"或"公司"）收到公司持股5%以 上股东吉林双阳农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"双阳农商行"）发来的《关于股份减持计划的告 知函》，双阳农商行持有公司无限售流通股16,455,600股（公司总股本311,386,551股，占公司总股本的 5.2846%），其计划自本次减持计划公告之日起十五个交易日后的三个月内（即2025年12月24日至2026 年3月23日），以集中竞价或大宗交易方式合计减持本公司股份不超过9,341,596股（不超过公司总股本 的3%），若减持计划全部实施完毕，双阳农商行将不再是公司持股5%以上股东。 一、股东的基本情况 1、股东名称：吉林双阳农村商业银行股份有限公司 1、减持原因：自身资金 ...

市场消息：数位 万科 债券持有人对展期计划表示反对。 ...

市场消息：数位万科债券持有人对展期计划表示反对。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the infrastructure REITs issuance scope aims to activate a large amount of existing assets in China, improve resource allocation, and enhance economic efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure REITs Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a new list for infrastructure REITs, including commercial office facilities and urban renewal projects as independent asset categories [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed a pilot for commercial real estate REITs, which, along with the expanded infrastructure REITs, will help create a complete public REITs market in China [1]. - As of November 2025, there are 77 infrastructure REITs products with a total fundraising scale of approximately 220 billion yuan, indicating a relatively small scale compared to the vast existing assets in China [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption and Urban Renewal - The inclusion of sports venues, commercial complexes, and four-star hotels in the REITs framework is expected to stimulate supply-side improvements and innovation, thereby enhancing consumption scale and structure [2]. - The central urban work conference in 2025 emphasizes urban renewal, and incorporating old neighborhoods and factories into the REITs framework can help address funding challenges in urban renewal projects [2]. Group 3: Commercial Real Estate and Liquidity - Commercial real estate has a large scale and long recovery period, with many companies overly reliant on debt financing, leading to liquidity issues [3]. - REITs can provide a channel for asset exit and capital recovery for real estate companies, helping to activate existing assets and reduce debt ratios [3]. - The attractiveness of REITs is increasing due to low savings and bond yields, with a high mandatory dividend payout ratio making them appealing to investors [3]. Group 4: Operational Improvement and Market Growth - There is a need to focus on improving project operational capabilities, optimizing governance structures, and transitioning from "heavy development" to "precise operation" to enhance supply quality and attract more social capital [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing liquidity landscape, indicating that liquidity in 2026 will be less abundant than in 2025, primarily driven by structural debt increases with the central government as the main leverager [1][18] - The focus for investors should shift towards fiscal policy rather than monetary policy, although structural characteristics of monetary policy remain significant [1][18] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [19] - The economic cycle consists of long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratiev, Juglar, and Kitchin cycles, along with Kuznets and Minsky cycles related to real estate and debt [19][20] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is categorized into three main cycles: Kondratiev, Juglar, and inventory cycles [20] - The Kondratiev cycle, lasting about 60 years, focuses on technological and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [21][24] - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle starting in 2024 [23][25] Inventory Cycle Transition - The inventory cycle is transitioning from passive to active inventory replenishment, influenced by anti-involution policies [27] - Current indicators show a PMI output index of 49.7%, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting weak external demand and cautious exporter attitudes [28] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle includes the real estate cycle and the debt cycle, with the real estate market still in a deep adjustment phase since 2020 [30] - The Minsky cycle is characterized by a "wide monetary + low interest rate" environment, with a gradual recovery in macro leverage and a focus on debt resolution strategies [31] Asset Allocation Principles for 2026 - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance of cycles, prioritizing new productive forces while maintaining a defensive base with high-quality fixed-income assets [32][33] - The focus should be on sectors benefiting from technological advancements and policy guidance, particularly in high-end manufacturing and green energy [33]