Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The precious metals sector opened strong, with Western Gold rising over 6% and Zhaojin Mining up over 3%, as spot gold prices surpassed $3600 per ounce last week, setting a new high [1] - Battery concept stocks became active again, with Tianji Co., Soft Control Co., and Fengyuan Co. hitting the daily limit, while CATL launched its NP3.0 battery safety technology and the Shenxing Pro battery [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector saw an initial surge, with Tianyu Biological hitting the daily limit and Muyuan Foods rising over 3%, as the three major listed pig companies reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in August pig sales [1] - New real estate policies were introduced in Shenzhen, leading to a broad rally in real estate stocks, with Shoukai Co. rising over 7% and Nanshan Holdings up over 6% [1]

Market News - Southbound trading of Hong Kong Stock Connect has been active this year, with average daily trading volume of ETFs reaching a new high since the launch of the mutual market access [2] - The CEO of Hang Seng Index Company stated that the demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong stocks remains strong, leading to the launch of cross-market products [2] - On September 5, former US President Trump criticized the EU's $3.5 billion fine on Google, warning of potential retaliatory measures if similar actions continue against US tech giants [2] Employment and Recruitment - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced the launch of a nationwide joint recruitment event for college graduates in Urumqi, Xinjiang, attracting over 20,000 participants and offering more than 15,000 job positions [4] Sector Developments - The World Nuclear Association reported a significant increase in global uranium demand due to the expansion of nuclear power, projecting a rise to 86,000 tons by 2030 and 150,000 tons by 2040 [6] - Spot uranium prices have surged from $30 per pound in 2020 to around $80 per pound currently, driven by supply-demand imbalances [6][7] Industrial Policy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlined key tasks for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, promoting technological innovation, and fostering emerging industries [8] Environmental Initiatives - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant investments have been made in water pollution prevention, with a total of 124.5 billion yuan allocated to support over 6,000 key projects [9] Real Estate Market Insights - Recent reports from listed real estate companies indicate a recovery in market confidence, with most firms believing the market has bottomed out, although the rebound is expected to be weak [10] Company-Specific News - Jilin Electric Power received 1.271 billion yuan in renewable energy subsidies from January to August 2025, a 154.2% increase year-on-year, significantly improving cash flow [12] - Hongchuan Wisdom announced a conditional redemption of its convertible bonds due to stock price performance, allowing bondholders to redeem at 100.312 yuan per bond [13] - Jiangtian Chemical plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% due to funding needs [14] - Runhe Materials and Xiangshan Co. also announced plans to reduce their stakes by up to 3% for similar reasons [15][16] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 40 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, with a total of 4.054 billion shares and a market value of approximately 95.021 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 5 [19][20] New Stock Calendar - Three new stocks are scheduled for subscription this week, including Shichang Co. on September 9 and Haocreat on September 11 [22] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities noted a divergence in ETF fund flows, with a shift towards industry/theme funds and increased interest in Hong Kong stocks [25] - Galaxy Securities expects A-shares to continue a trend of oscillating upward, supported by recent policy expectations and market conditions [26] - Zhongtai Securities indicated that despite short-term adjustments, the mid-term trend remains intact, with potential catalysts from upcoming policy events [27]

Group 1 - The stock price of Xinda Real Estate (600657) closed at 4.0 yuan on September 5, 2025, with no change, a turnover rate of 0.7%, a trading volume of 199,100 hands, and a transaction amount of 79.31 million yuan [1] - On September 5, the net outflow of main funds was 774.7 thousand yuan, accounting for 9.77% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors had a net inflow of 527.13 thousand yuan, accounting for 6.65% of the total transaction amount [1][3] - The Ministry of Finance has transferred all its shares in China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. to Central Huijin Investment Ltd., and the National Financial Supervision Administration has formally approved this equity change [1] Group 2 - The equity change was completed on September 4, 2025, and the company received a notification regarding the completion of the equity structure change from its controlling shareholder [1][3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, as well as sectors such as finance, real estate, and new energy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Impact**: Since mid-July, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, benefiting from the nearing end of the Fed's rate hike cycle and weak US economic data, which is expected to support the equity market and indicate a systematic slow bull market [1][4][5]. 2. **Market Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains positive, with a target for the Shanghai Composite Index set at 4,132 points based on a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2015 peak [1][6]. However, short-term volatility is increasing, necessitating caution [1][11]. 3. **Support Levels**: The Shanghai Composite Index found support around 3,731 points, aligning with the 2021 peak and indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][6][15]. 4. **ChiNext Index Performance**: The ChiNext Index has shown strong performance but is experiencing declining trading volume, suggesting increased selling pressure and potential for further short-term adjustments [1][11][8]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The current market favors large-cap growth stocks, with notable performance in the power and new energy sectors. However, caution is advised regarding the rotation of funds between high-tech sectors and the risks associated with speculative investments in solid-state batteries [1][9][16]. 6. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to increase allocations in the financial sector while reducing exposure to technology stocks. Focus should be on stable sectors with good long-term investment value, such as large finance, real estate, and heavy asset infrastructure [1][16][22]. 7. **Market Dynamics**: The market is characterized by rapid emotional shifts and directional changes, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices showing signs of increased volatility [3][11]. 8. **Short-term Adjustments**: The short-term market adjustment is not yet over, with potential for increased volatility in September. The ChiNext's recent performance indicates that selling pressure has not fully materialized [11][12]. 9. **Future Market Drivers**: Traditional consumer and cyclical sectors, such as liquor, consumer services, and real estate, are expected to become significant market drivers, especially with supportive government policies [22][23]. 10. **Banking Sector Outlook**: The banking sector has been a stabilizing force in the market, with small banks showing better performance due to their higher beta values compared to large banks [25][26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Solid-State Battery Sector**: The solid-state battery industry is still in its early development stage, with recent price increases driven by speculative trading rather than solid fundamentals. Caution is advised regarding overexposure to this sector [18][19]. 2. **Fund Flow Dynamics**: There has been a noticeable shift of funds between new energy and hard technology sectors, reflecting market sentiment and risk aversion [19][20]. 3. **Investment Adjustments**: A significant shift in investment strategy has occurred, moving from a focus on large finance and broad technology to a more concentrated approach on large finance and cyclical sectors [21][30]. 4. **Market Style and Fund Performance**: The dominant market style remains large-cap growth, closely tied to fund positioning, with consumer stocks expected to benefit from upcoming holiday effects and policy support [31][32]. 5. **Emerging Themes**: Themes related to new energy, such as solid-state batteries and electric vehicles, continue to show strong performance and potential for further gains [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future outlook.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the comparison between the U.S. and Chinese economies, particularly in terms of monetary policy, economic structure, and stock market performance - Analysis of the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its dynamics Core Points and Arguments Economic Structure and Monetary Policy - Significant differences exist between the economic structures and monetary policies of the U.S. and China, with the U.S. having a high proportion of second-hand home transactions and fixed-rate mortgages, while China focuses on new homes and floating-rate mortgages [2][4] - The evaluation of stock valuations and risk premiums should focus on relative levels rather than absolute values, considering macroeconomic environments and corporate earnings [1][8] Stock Market Valuation and Risk Premium - The risk premium in the U.S. stock market is extremely low, even negative, potentially due to issues in the calculation of the risk-free rate, warranting further investigation [9] - Differences in valuations between U.S. and Hong Kong stocks can be explained by the credit cycle, with China's credit pulse slope being stronger but with a smaller magnitude and opposite direction compared to the U.S. [10] Credit Cycle and Economic Demand - The credit cycle influences economic demand and profitability through three core sectors: government, traditional private demand, and emerging investments [11] - The determination of whether a credit cycle has begun depends on relative return rates, necessitating attention to the relationship between interest rates and rental yields [18] Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - The funding landscape in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by retail and trading investors, with foreign capital not significantly returning [32] - The structural differences between Hong Kong and A-share markets are notable, particularly in sector composition and investor sentiment [5][27] Macroeconomic Indicators - Key indicators for overseas asset allocation include cyclical indicators, U.S. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, CPI vs. PCE, and ADP employment data [3] - The U.S. has experienced monetary tightening with strong economic performance, while China has seen monetary easing with weaker growth [4] Investment Opportunities and Risks - Long-term growth factors include population dynamics, capital investment, and technological advancement, with new consumption trends linked to demographic changes [12] - The relationship between corporate competitive advantages and the phenomenon of "anti-involution" is complex, with certain sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics still presenting significant investment opportunities [13] Market Predictions and Trends - The U.S. economy is expected to stabilize or improve in the second half of the year, influenced by the implementation of the "Great Beautiful Act" and ongoing AI investments [28] - Current market conditions reflect a stable credit cycle with abundant liquidity, suggesting a need for strategic asset allocation rather than aggressive market entry [29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis framework for the Hong Kong stock market includes dynamic weighting methods based on southbound capital transaction ratios, highlighting the importance of local factors over foreign capital [27] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on market conditions is nuanced, with past rate cuts not always leading to positive market outcomes [22] - The current market's oscillation and structural characteristics suggest a cautious approach to investment, focusing on long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation [34]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Changes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai, discussing the impact of recent government policies aimed at stimulating the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Short-term Impact of Policies**: The rescue policies in Beijing and Shanghai provided a slight short-term boost to transaction volumes, but this increase was not sustained. The net signing data showed limited improvement, indicating insufficient attraction for new users and failure to drive a continuous market recovery [1][2]. - **Market Stability**: After the implementation of rescue policies, the listing volumes in Beijing and Shanghai showed fluctuations. Beijing experienced an initial increase followed by a decrease, while Shanghai consistently reduced listings. This suggests relative market stability without large-scale sell-offs, although market confidence remains weak [1][2]. - **Price Trends**: There was no significant increase in housing prices in both cities. In Beijing, the month-on-month decline expanded from -1% to -1.4%, while certain areas in Shanghai saw declines exceeding 1.3%. This indicates ongoing downward pressure on prices [1][2][3]. - **National Market Conditions**: Since April, the national real estate market has been deteriorating, although transaction volumes stabilized in July and August, outperforming the same period last year. However, price declines have widened, particularly in first-tier cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai, which have seen declines greater than the national average [1][3][5]. - **Market Confidence**: The rescue policies have had a limited effect on boosting market confidence. The data on viewings and real-time transactions indicate that the number of new users entering the market has not significantly increased, and prices have not shown an upward trend [4][5]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: A key recommendation for future policies is to lower interest rates. Current mortgage rates are around 3%, which is considered high in the current economic environment. A reduction to 2.5% could replicate the effects of last year's successful rescue measures [6]. - **Timeframe for Price Stabilization**: The current stabilization in transaction volumes is at a low level. A balance between supply and demand is necessary for price stability, and many landlords are forced to sell due to a lack of confidence. Clear expectations of interest rate cuts could alleviate selling pressure and enhance purchasing activity [7][8]. - **New Housing Market Response**: In Beijing, new home transactions increased from 563 to 814 units post-policy, while in Shanghai, transactions rose from 1,800 to 2,200 units. This indicates a positive initial response in the new housing market, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [9]. Additional Important Insights - The Iceberg 100 Index indicates that the national real estate market has stabilized at a negative 12% level since September of last year, with first-tier cities performing the worst. The effectiveness of the rescue policies has diminished over time [3][4]. - The average rent-to-sale ratio is currently at 2.7%, and when mortgage rates align closely with rental yields, it can provide support for housing prices [6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market dynamics in Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting the effects of government policies, market conditions, and future outlooks.

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The central bank may restart government bond trading, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4][5] - The government aims to enhance service consumption and has announced measures to optimize service supply capabilities [5] - Recent employment data from the US shows a significant decline in non-farm employment, indicating a cooling labor market [9][10] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a transition between thermal and non-thermal coal, with expectations for coal prices to rise [31] - The current operating rate of coal mines is low, and port inventories are decreasing, which supports a potential price rebound [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from both cyclical and dividend strategies within the coal sector [34] Group 3: Real Estate and Construction - New housing transaction volumes have decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, while policies in Shenzhen have been relaxed to stimulate the market [41][42] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with significant growth in transaction volumes and a favorable environment for high-dividend assets [35][36] - The construction materials index has underperformed compared to the broader market, but the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [27][41] Group 4: Thermal Management Materials - The thermal management materials industry is projected to grow significantly, driven by the demand for high-performance electronic devices [20][21] - The market for heat pipes and temperature equalization plates is expected to expand, with local procurement trends emerging due to supply chain considerations [23] - Companies like Suzhou Tianmai are positioned to benefit from this growth due to their early investments in advanced thermal management technologies [23]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about future housing prices being as low as "scallions" has come true, with average national housing prices now down over 30% [1][3] - Cities like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang have seen significant price declines, followed by major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [3] - Prices in lower-tier cities have dropped to levels around 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per square meter, aligning with Ma's prediction [3] Group 2: Investment Risks - Investment risks are rising across various sectors, including real estate, stocks, funds, and bank products, as bank deposit rates hit historical lows [4][8] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be around 140,000 yuan, with public funds experiencing average losses of 20-30% [8] - The risk associated with bank wealth management products is increasing due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [8] Group 3: Entrepreneurship Challenges - Many individuals are withdrawing savings to invest in entrepreneurship, but the success rate is extremely low, described as "nine deaths and one life" [10] - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational spending post-pandemic, leading to a long-term oversupply in the market [12] - High rental costs for commercial spaces and intense competition from established companies further diminish the chances of entrepreneurial success [14]

报告导读： 上周住房成交回落。9月5日深圳市出台进一步优化调整房地产政策，放松力度 大于京沪，这将有助于引入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求。维持行业"增持"评级。 2025年8月35城月度库存出清周期环比继续回升 ：35城2025年8月可售面积为31387万平，环比上个月0.64%，同比-4.42%。35城2025年8月库存出清周期（按 12个月月均计算）为22.09个月，环比上个月1.89%，同比去年-4.91%。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 上周大中城市成交回落。 9月5日深圳市发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。我们认为深圳政策的放松力度大于北京、上海，有助于引 入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求，预计全年市场"止跌回稳"的趋势不变。维持行业"增持"评 ...

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]