Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on July 22, 2025, by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in the domestic futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the propylene industry chain [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry, addressing issues such as insufficient demand and price volatility [1][2]. - The listing of these financial instruments will create strong linkages with other chemical products like polypropylene and methanol, thereby improving the futures product system within the chemical industry [2][4]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to contribute to the healthy development of the propylene industry chain, enhancing its resilience against risks and promoting industry transformation and upgrading [4]. Group 2: Company Perspectives - Sinopec, as the largest supplier of propylene in China, views the launch as a step towards a more mature domestic futures market, providing robust tools for product inventory preservation and processing hedging [2]. - Donghua Energy emphasizes that the new futures and options fill a gap in risk management for the industry, allowing companies to lock in prices and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [3]. - Jineng Chemical, a key player in the propylene sector, expresses optimism about the role of propylene futures in controlling costs and managing risks, indicating a proactive approach to participating in these new financial instruments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority of price increases during the night session, particularly in the chemical sector, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices overall [1] Group 1: Chemical Products - The price of 20 rubber increased by 2.91% [1] - Rubber prices rose by 2.28% [1] - Styrene saw an increase of 1.60% [1] - Butadiene rubber rose by 1.59% [1] Group 2: Black Metals - Coking coal prices increased by 2.03% [1] - Coke prices rose by 1.59% [1] - Iron ore saw a price increase of 1.09% [1] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Glass prices increased by 1.85% [1] - PVC prices rose by 1.20% [1] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Pulp prices increased by 1.33% [1] Group 5: Oils and Fats - Soybean meal rose by 0.24% [1] - Soybean oil remained stable [1] - Soybean one decreased by 0.10% [1] - Palm oil fell by 0.44% [1] Group 6: Energy Products - LPG prices increased by 0.34% [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.30% [1] - Fuel oil fell by 0.60% [1]

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 9, 2025, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][15][23][37][46]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Spread**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of power coal was - 175.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to previous days [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from July 2 to July 8, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of INE crude oil was - 26.99 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1420 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The base spread data for fuel oil was not fully available on July 8, 2025 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were - 35, 67, 95, 105, and 605 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 870 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2364 yuan/ton, and the spread of LLDPE - PP was 196 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 67.0, 60.8, - 126.1, and - 48.5 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 month spread was 9.0 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 1 month spread was - 20.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.18, and the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1502 [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 270, 65, - 40, - 130, 1250, and - 600 yuan/ton respectively [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: On July 8, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 51.31, - 0.60, - 9.88, - 23.04, - 207.63, and - 20.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 8.08, 7.94, 8.16, 8.40, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal varied [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of palm oil was - 145 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 51 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.77, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.71 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 39.85, 19.39, 19.74, and 171.90 respectively [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For CSI 300, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contract was - 16.8 [47].

芳烃橡胶早报 | 苯 乙 烯 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/07/02 | 850 | 728 | 5805 | 5885 | 908 | | 7575 | 7710 | 8450 | | 2025/07/03 | 850 | 730 | 5865 | 5870 | 910 | | 7565 | 7725 | 8450 | | 2025/07/04 | 850 | 731 | 5900 | 5870 | 920 | | 7630 | 7765 | 8400 | | 2025/07/07 | 820 | 728 | 5860 | 5800 | 910 | | 7640 | 7765 | 8400 | | 2025/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - **Related News**: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - **Related News**: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - **Related News**: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - **Related News**: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: International methanol production increases [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - **Related News**: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread

| | | 约短线预计在2370-2430区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2373 | -19 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -47 | -4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 694298 | 8589 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -120434 | -22373 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8720 | 95 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4279 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4347 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 35 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 54.2 tons (up 3.6 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure on inventory rebound [1] - The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still benign, but the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented after the warehouse receipts are cancelled. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of July. The demand is currently strong, but several large bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price and Basis - The report involves the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, with specific price and basis changes as described in the core view [1][5][6] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profit of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas - based, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol [9][13][15] 3.3 International Price Difference - It shows the international price difference of ethylene glycol between the US FOB and China CFR [16][18] 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - It covers the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [17][19][21] 3.5 Inventory Data - It includes the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol in East China ports [29][30][38]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly lower during the night session, with significant declines in oilseeds and oils [1] - Soybean meal dropped by 0.51%, soybean oil fell by 0.44%, and palm oil increased by 0.43% [1] - The black series also experienced declines, with rebar down 0.36%, hot-rolled coil down 0.31%, iron ore down 0.27%, and coking coal down 0.24% [1] Group 2 - Chemical products showed mixed results, with asphalt rising by 0.90% and styrene increasing by 0.38%, while ethylene glycol and PVC saw slight declines of 0.07% and 0.10% respectively [1] - Energy products generally increased, with low-sulfur fuel oil up by 1.89%, fuel oil up by 1.05%, and LPG rising by 0.34% [1]