Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI January contract closing at $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31, a 0.53% increase, while Brent February contract closed at $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22, a 0.35% increase [3][18] - EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with crude oil inventory rising by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels as of November 28 [3][18] - Refinery crude processing increased by 433,000 barrels per day, with refinery capacity utilization rising by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [3][18] - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the explosion on the Druzhba pipeline segment, but supply disruptions have been limited, leading to a continued oscillation in oil prices [3][18] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.3% to 22,437 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.59% to 3,017 yuan per ton [4][19] - China's independent refineries' operating rate increased to 70.53%, up 0.49 percentage points from the previous week [4][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce low-sulfur fuel oil inflows to Singapore, while supply remains ample [4][19][20] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.41% to 2,952 yuan per ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 26.01%, up 0.12% week-on-week [6][21] - Domestic asphalt supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [6][21] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 150 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [7][22] - Market dynamics are influenced by the timing of rubber tapping in Thailand and the registration of new warehouse receipts [7][22] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4,730 yuan per ton, down 0.46%, while EG2601 closed at 3,822 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [8][23] - The PX futures contract closed at 6,908 yuan per ton, with downstream demand gradually weakening as year-end approaches [8][23] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,122 yuan per ton, with expectations of a slight decrease in domestic production in December [9][24] - The overall demand for methanol is anticipated to increase due to the restart of certain production facilities [9][24] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6,300 to 6,500 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][25] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while demand is projected to weaken [10][25] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a weak trend, with the market facing limited support from downstream demand due to a slowdown in real estate construction [11][27] - The supply side is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are at a low, but overall demand remains weak [11][27] Urea - Urea prices remained firm, with some regions seeing price increases of 10 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand from agricultural and compound fertilizer sectors [12][28] - The industry’s daily production rate was reported at 192,500 tons, with a slight increase from the previous day [12][28] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained stable, with the market experiencing a slight decline in certain regions [13][29] - The industry operating rate is fluctuating around a high level, but demand remains weak due to low production in downstream sectors [13][29] Glass - The glass market showed a stable performance with an average price of 1,101 yuan per ton, although some regions are experiencing price adjustments [14][30] - Demand remains relatively positive, but the core limiting factor is weak downstream demand, affecting procurement levels [14][30]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's benzene imports rebounded significantly, reaching 496,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.18%, reversing a three-month decline and providing a boost to the domestic chemical market [2] Group 1: Import Dynamics - The increase in benzene imports in October was primarily driven by South Korea, which contributed 43,000 tons of the total increase of 62,000 tons compared to September [2] - The shift in global aromatic trade flows and changes in domestic supply-demand dynamics were key factors behind the rebound in imports [2][3] - The recovery in South Korean supply was influenced by the end of maintenance at major companies, which had previously reduced export capacity [2] Group 2: Market Influences - The decline in gasoline demand in Asia indirectly supported the increase in benzene imports, as resources shifted from gasoline blending to chemical products [3] - Domestic market demand expectations also played a role in the rise of benzene imports, with increased maintenance losses and new styrene production capacity contributing to a more favorable supply-demand outlook [3] - Styrene, which accounts for over 40% of benzene consumption, has seen its production capacity grow by 18.7% year-on-year, further driving demand for benzene [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the rebound in October, analysts believe that the overall market for benzene in the fourth quarter remains characterized by "strong supply and weak demand," putting pressure on prices [4] - The domestic benzene balance indicates a continued oversupply in the fourth quarter, with reduced demand from the caprolactam industry and uncertainties regarding maintenance schedules for major production facilities [5] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the increase in imports may not be sustainable, with potential declines expected in November due to shifts in South Korean aromatic supply towards the U.S. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of styrene gradually shift from tight balance to wide balance with weakening price support The short - term EB2601 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near 6470 and the pressure near 6660 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6585 yuan/ton, up 21 from the previous period The trading volume is 407,376, up 11,322 The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 326,171 hands, up 5581, and the net long - position volume is - 46,726 hands, down 6493 The short - position volume of the top 20 holders is 372,897 hands, up 12,074 The open interest is 296,579 hands, down 1427 The 1 - month contract closing price is 6585 yuan/ton, up 21 The warehouse receipt quantity is 100 hands, up 100 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6654 yuan/ton, down 2 The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 814 dollars/ton, up 4 The CFR China intermediate price is 824 dollars/ton, up 4 The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6325 yuan/ton (down 50), 6800 yuan/ton (up 15), 6500 yuan/ton (down 5), and 6615 yuan/ton (up 15) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 741 dollars/ton (unchanged), 721 dollars/ton (unchanged), 642 dollars/ton (down 1), and 457 dollars/ton (down 6) respectively The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the US Gulf (FOB) are 658 dollars/ton (unchanged), 714 dollars/ton (unchanged), and 280 cents/gallon (up 5) respectively The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5335 yuan/ton (up 15), and 5270 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate is 67.29%, down 1.66% The national styrene inventory is 190,430 tons, up 2334 The total inventory at the main ports in East China is 16.06 tons, down 0.36 The trade inventory at the main ports in East China is 9.64 tons, up 0.22 [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 54.75% (down 1.52), 71.2% (down 1.2), 57.6% (up 1.7), 37% (unchanged), and 75.99% (up 1.23) respectively [2] Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, China's styrene plant output was 334,700 tons, down 2.39% from the previous period, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, down 1.66% From November 21st to 28th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS was 268,800 tons, down 0.3% As of November 27th, the styrene plant inventory was 190,400 tons, up 1.24% from the previous week As of December 1st, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 160,600 tons, down 2.19% from the previous week, and at South China ports was 95,000 tons, down 39.1% from the previous week [2] Viewpoint Summary - The non - integrated process losses are reduced, and the integrated process profitability deepens The recent launch of a 200,000 - ton new device in Dongming and the restart of a 600,000 - ton device in Lianyungang Petrochemical are expected to restore domestic styrene supply In December, the impact of styrene maintenance is expected to weaken, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise The short - term downstream demand load is adjusted slightly, with little overall change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. With significant commissioning pressure and increased port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped to a near-two-year low, and the negative feedback from high-cost devices has gradually emerged, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure [3] Core Viewpoint - The main port continues to accumulate inventory, leading to a decline in the price of ethylene glycol (EG). The supply side shows a decline in domestic ethylene glycol load, while overseas device changes are limited. The demand side has marginal weakening orders despite the support from the polyester load at a low inventory level [1][2] Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,877 yuan/ton (a change of -5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.13%), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of -21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.54%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 1 yuan/ton (a decrease of -3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -$63/ton (a month-on-month increase of $1/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,016 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 27 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No relevant data provided Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No relevant data provided Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 753,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 708,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 111,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports were 14,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 161,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports are 41,000 tons, which is relatively high overall, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-03 俄罗斯海上原油量持续攀升，甲醇关注 12⽉的进⼝压⼒ 化工品近期的反弹开始略显迟疑。甲醇在海外限气的提振下，近期期 价反弹；同时前期较高的开工导致伊朗11月装船量再创历史新高，12月可 能出现非伊甲醇减量，伊朗货源依旧充足的情况，12月甲醇的进口压力依 旧较大。而烯烃端也没有实质性利好。资金换月和原油反弹短暂拉升了烯 烃价格，但生产企业仍以去库存为核心导向，通过下调出厂价、加大促销 力度等方式积极去库；需求端则以刚需为主，并未有投机性囤货举措。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价大跌，测试2800重要支撑位 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价弱势震荡 甲醇：12月沿海卸货预期偏高，内地供需阶段性支撑，甲醇震荡整理 尿素：淡储推进暂缓，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：国内供应阶段性见顶，但海外货源供应充裕 PX：供需双强，叠加市场预期偏强下利润持续扩张 PTA：现货市场氛围改善，基差偏强运行 短纤：下游维持观望居多，持续追涨意愿不强 瓶片：价格波动率收窄，成交氛围小幅回落 丙烯：PG带动，P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene, and the accumulation rate of port inventory is accelerating. Downstream开工 remains at a low level in the off - season, with styrene in maintenance and low - load operation, CPL开工 further declining from a low level, and the开工 of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand is still weak. Styrene port inventory has slightly declined, and styrene is still in the low -开工 maintenance stage, with the resumption plan postponed. Off - season downstream开工 is still low, EPS开工 with obvious seasonality continues to decline, PS开工 rebounds but inventory pressure still exists, and ABS finished product inventory pressure remains and开工 stays at a low level [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene [8][12][18] II. Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene plant production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, and styrene import profits [21][23][27][33] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene's East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [39][44][45] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [49][52][53] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures involve the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][65][73][75][85] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - Period: Go long on the inter - period positive spread of EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some near - end devices restarting,开工 rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, and basis strengthening, while PX domestic operation decreasing and overseas devices reducing load, there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stabilizing, there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak. [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end operation is stable, with inventory pressure limited in the short term due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, with national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, PTA spot price increased by 75, polyester margin decreased by 76, and PTA load increased by 0.2. [1] - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, with limited inventory accumulation slope, and there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, MEG outer - market price increased by 1, and coal - made profit increased by 19. [1] - **Device Changes**: Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: The inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is weak. [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25, and short - fiber profit decreased by 25. [1] - **Device Status**: The near - end device operation is stable, with an operation rate of 97.5%. [1] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 90. [1] - **Market Outlook**: With national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene domestic profit remained at - 138. [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The Chinese market remains optimistic despite recent adjustments in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, and STAR 50. The adjustments are comparable to historical bull market corrections, and panic selling risks have been sufficiently released. Policy catalysts are expected to increase [1][3][4] - **Investment Style Shift**: The market investment style is shifting from a barbell strategy or pure valuation expansion to a quality strategy and urgent investment strategy, driven by a decline in domestic risk-free interest rates and an increase in global liquidity [1][5] Transportation Industry - **Airline Sector**: The airline industry is expected to enter a super cycle of profitability, with rising ticket prices and profit margins over the next two years. This is driven by supply-demand recovery and increasing passenger traffic, with historical highs in passenger load factors and ticket prices observed [1][7][8][11] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: The oil shipping market is benefiting from increased crude oil production and sanctions, leading to rising freight rates. Current rates have reached over $130,000 per day, with strong demand expected to continue into 2026 [1][12][13][14] Chemical Industry - **Market Conditions**: The chemical market is currently in a bottoming phase, with some products like sulfur and PMA seeing significant price increases. The overall chemical price index is at a historical low, indicating potential for future price increases [1][15][16] - **Recommended Companies**: Companies with cost advantages and stable earnings, such as Hualu Hengsheng and Boryung Chemical, are recommended for investment [1][16] Metals Market - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum markets are expected to experience supply-demand mismatches, with emerging technologies driving demand. This is likely to support price increases in the long term [1][19] Gold and Lithium Carbonate - **Gold Market**: The gold market is currently volatile, but there are opportunities to invest in leading gold companies due to recent price corrections. The lithium carbonate market is expected to balance out supply and demand by 2026-2027, driven by increased storage demand [1][20] Steel Industry - **Future Trends**: The steel industry is seeing demand bottoming out, with supply-side reductions due to anti-involution policies. Capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly in 2026, presenting opportunities for investment in leading steel companies [1][21] Coal Industry - **Long-term Contracts**: The reform of long-term coal contract pricing mechanisms is expected to enhance profitability for coal companies at the bottom of the cycle. The demand for coal is driven by emerging industries such as AI and new energy vehicles [1][24][25][26] Real Estate and Construction - **Market Movements**: The real estate sector is experiencing fluctuations due to policy changes and negative sentiment from declining data. However, there is potential for recovery in 2026-2027, particularly for leading companies [1][29][30][31] Power Generation - **Electricity Demand**: Electricity demand is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by economic growth. However, coal prices are currently high, and long-term contracts will help stabilize prices for northern power plants [1][34] Public Utilities - **Investment Opportunities**: Large state-owned enterprises in northern regions are recommended for investment due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and valuation advantages. The renewable energy sector also presents investment opportunities, although further policy support is needed [1][37]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry in China plays a crucial role in providing 70% of textile raw materials and is closely linked to daily life, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) developing a comprehensive risk management system for the polyester supply chain since the launch of PTA futures in 2006 [1][2]. Group 1: Risk Management Development - The ZCE has focused on addressing industry pain points by establishing a robust risk management framework for the polyester supply chain, starting with the launch of PTA futures in December 2006 [2]. - The introduction of PTA options in 2019 and short fiber futures in 2020 expanded the risk management tools available to the polyester industry, with further developments in 2023 including PX futures and options [2][3]. Group 2: Functional Impact on the Polyester Industry - The ZCE's polyester futures have significantly transformed trade practices, enhancing supply chain resilience and supporting high-quality development in the polyester sector [4]. - Since 2010, PTA futures have become a key reference for spot pricing, with nearly 100% of PTA spot trades now priced based on "futures price + premium/discount" [4][5]. Group 3: Internationalization and Price Influence - The ZCE is actively working to enhance the international pricing influence of polyester futures, allowing foreign investors to participate in trading since 2018 and hosting international forums to promote these products [6][7]. - The integration of PTA futures into international trade has improved negotiation efficiency and solidified supply chain relationships, exemplified by companies like Hengyi Petrochemical using PTA futures as a pricing benchmark in contracts [7][8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The ZCE aims to refine existing products, expand international outreach, and strengthen regulatory measures to continue supporting the manufacturing sector and contribute to new industrialization efforts [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral market and suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ for spreads [1]. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production of pure benzene will exceed the incremental demand from downstream production, leading to a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene may maintain a weak and low - volatility oscillation. For styrene, the new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. But the current port inventory of styrene is still high. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - In 2026, the nominal new production plan of pure benzene is 2.81 million tons/year, with the actual capacity growth weighted by production time at 1.37 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate at 4.8%. The nominal growth in pure benzene demand due to new downstream capacity in China in 2026 is only 2.59 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is only 0.64 million tons/year, with a demand growth rate of only 2.2%, significantly slower than in 2025. The annual balance sheet of pure benzene is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [7]. - In 2026, the nominal capacity growth of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth weighted by production time is 0.013 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 0.5%, significantly slower than in 2025. The nominal growth in styrene demand due to the production of three major hard plastics in China in 2026 is 1.88 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is 0.87 million tons/year, driving a 5.3% demand growth rate. In 2026, styrene may shift from a stockpiling to a destocking cycle, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream inventory operation is lower than expected [8]. Market Analysis - The new production of pure benzene in 2026 exceeds the incremental demand from downstream production, and it is expected to enter a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and will oscillate at a low level. Styrene's new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [9]. Strategy - On an annual basis, the unilateral price will oscillate in a range. In the first half of the year, the production pressure of pure benzene still exists, and the price will oscillate weakly. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to whether the summer gasoline blending and crude oil prices can support the unilateral price. For spreads, pay attention to widening the EB - BZ spread at low levels, especially in the first half of the year. In terms of inter - period trading, BZ still favors reverse arbitrage, while EB should track the annual inventory reduction rhythm for positive arbitrage opportunities [10]. Annual Balance Sheet Estimation Pure Benzene & EB - **Pure Benzene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene still exists, but the downstream production is limited. The total supply of pure benzene in China will increase by 2.7%, and the total demand will increase by 1.5%. The inventory change will be a 280,000 - ton increase, with an inventory change rate of 0.9% [17]. - **Styrene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the new production of styrene will slow down, and it is waiting for further inventory digestion. The total supply of styrene in China will decrease by 0.6%, and the total demand will increase by 2.1%. The inventory change will be a 130,000 - ton decrease [21]. 2026 China Pure Benzene & Styrene Production Situation - The nominal capacity growth rate of pure benzene in China in 2026 is 9.8% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 4.8%), and the nominal capacity growth rate of styrene is 3.9% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 0.5%), significantly slower than in 2025 [26]. - The main large - scale pure benzene production in 2026 will be Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei in the third quarter, with greater production pressure in Q1 and Q4. The production of styrene will slow down significantly in 2026, mainly focusing on Huajin Aramco in the fourth quarter. Before the start of the peak summer gasoline - blending season, the EB - BZ spread is expected to widen in the first half of the year [28][29]. Styrene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, styrene had a profit recovery and inventory reduction in the first half of the year and then entered a loss - making and production - reduction pattern in the second half. The main maintenance periods were in April - May and October - November, especially for non - integrated plants using purchased pure benzene in October - November [31]. - In 2025, the overseas styrene maintenance increased, but the export did not increase further. The overseas demand for styrene was weak, resulting in the situation where increased overseas maintenance did not significantly support China's styrene export [45]. - In 2025, the styrene port inventory accumulated to a historical high and is waiting for digestion. The main reasons for the inventory increase were the weakening of downstream demand and the impact of new production [67]. EB Downstream Situation - In the second half of 2025, the production schedule growth rate of white goods significantly declined. The export of white goods decreased due to the tariff war, and the domestic sales also decreased due to the exhaustion of government subsidies [70]. - In 2026, the planned production of EPS is 0.82 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.1%; the planned production of PS is 0.87 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 10.1%; the planned production of ABS is 0.4 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The production growth rate of ABS will slow down in 2026 [91]. Pure Benzene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the pure benzene port inventory had great pressure. The processing fee of pure benzene decreased throughout the year, and the port inventory reached a relatively high historical level in July, mainly due to weak overseas demand and poor performance of domestic downstream industries [102]. - In 2025, the summer gasoline blending in the US was weak, and more pure benzene from South Korea was diverted to China, resulting in a significant increase in China's pure benzene imports. The gasoline demand in the US in 2025 was weak, especially in the peak season from June to August, which affected the Asian aromatic hydrocarbon market [107]. Pure Benzene Downstream Situation - In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was weak. The downstream operation of pure benzene was significantly differentiated, with the demand for pure benzene mainly supported by the high operation of styrene. The non - styrene downstream industries of pure benzene had little demand growth or even negative growth [121]. - In 2026, the planned production of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.9%; the planned production of phenol is 1.08 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.1%; the planned production of aniline is 0.3 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.2%; the planned production of adipic acid is 0.6 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.5%. In the first half of 2026, the new demand for pure benzene from downstream production will be less than the new pure benzene production capacity, and the pure benzene processing fee is expected to be weak. In the third and fourth quarters, the downstream production of pure benzene will gradually exceed its own production [128][131].